So you think winning long term is impossible?

[milwaukee mike]

I'll happily post the tickets when I get them because the lines were available when I took them. That is the point, a lot of people here believe beating the closing line does not matter. It's the only thing that matters.

doesn't matter if the lines were available, I could make 50 bets and then post the 30 where the line moved in my favor

and it also doesn't matter that some nitwits believe the line you get is unimportant, you'll never be able to win an argument or prove a nitwit wrong so don't even bother

what happens if you max bet a prop at -200 and it moves to -400? you sure beat the closing line but the value you got has nothing to do with the closing line. fair value might have been -150 and might have been -500, they only moved it because someone was pounding it

[grease lightnin]

What if a syndicate pumps a line up so they can hammer it when they get what they want?

So many variables.

But thinking you are gonna prove anything by past posting your bets is hilarious

[Alfa1234]

What if a syndicate pumps a line up so they can hammer it when they get what they want?

So many variables.

But thinking you are gonna prove anything by past posting your bets is hilarious

They are posted before the game.

Just took:

Castres Lyon 1 -8 at 1.87
Setubal Belenenses U19 x2 at 2.02

Some of the lines have not moved when I post them here. Some have, can't help that.

[danshan11]

doesn't matter if the lines were available, I could make 50 bets and then post the 30 where the line moved in my favor

and it also doesn't matter that some nitwits believe the line you get is unimportant, you'll never be able to win an argument or prove a nitwit wrong so don't even bother

what happens if you max bet a prop at -200 and it moves to -400? you sure beat the closing line but the value you got has nothing to do with the closing line. fair value might have been -150 and might have been -500, they only moved it because someone was pounding it

this would be assuming the line is not efficient and in these markets , I have no idea, I never even heard of any of these things he is betting nor do I know the margins on these leagues

[grease lightnin]

They are posted before the game.

Just took:

Castres Lyon 1 -8 at 1.87
Setubal Belenenses U19 x2 at 2.02

Some of the lines have not moved when I post them here. Some have, can't help that.

You stated that you will prove you are a winner, yet you will be posting your plays at the end of the day.

That is not proof.

Period.

[Alfa1234]

Last one of the day:

Shkupi Skopje Shkendija X2 at 1.34

[Alfa1234]

You stated that you will prove you are a winner, yet you will be posting your plays at the end of the day.

That is not proof.

Period.

All games have been posted WELL before they were played today and mostly within minutes of me placing them.

[grease lightnin]

Starting tomorrow, I will proove it's not. Purely math based betting. I will post regularly, but mostly at the end of the day because during the day I'll be busy with models and calculations. This means a lot of the picks will be posted after the plays, but some will be posted before the plays are done.

sted.

The comment above is what I was referrring to.

[danshan11]

Alfa you are wasting your time, you are not going to get anywhere
if you win you are lucky or posted plays late or gave bad lines
if you lose you are dumb never knew what you were doing whatever

people do not believe
the line is efficient or care that is how the books stay in business and even if they did know that, what can most people do about that?

waste of time dude, you are just gonna be teased prodded and poked at. I would bury the thread and go back to arguing with me everyday.

[grease lightnin]

Alfa has exactly 1000 posts right now

[danshan11]

Alfa has exactly 1000 posts right now

what does that mean?

[grease lightnin]

what does that mean?

It means he has exactly 1,000 posts


Alfa1234

SBR PROJoin Date: 12-19-15
Posts: 1,000
Betpoints: 7876

[fried cheese]

Alfa you are wasting your time, you are not going to get anywhere
if you win you are lucky or posted plays late or gave bad lines
if you lose you are dumb never knew what you were doing whatever

people do not believe
the line is efficient or care that is how the books stay in business and even if they did know that, what can most people do about that?

waste of time dude, you are just gonna be teased prodded and poked at. I would bury the thread and go back to arguing with me everyday.

lines are efficient at judging the overall opinion of ppl on a game so that betting is even on average. they arent efficient at actually picking the average outcome of a game in many sports where teams change drastically from year to year. for example the new mexico state/wyoming game. wyoming was favored by around 3.5. is new mexico state covering that game even 10% of the time if they played 1000 times this year? i doubt it. so say you beat that line and get new mexico state at +6.5 and beat the line by 3 points. that is still a losing bet on average.

[danshan11]

lines are efficient at judging the overall opinion of ppl on a game so that betting is even on average. they arent efficient at actually picking the average outcome of a game in many sports where teams change drastically from year to year. for example the new mexico state/wyoming game. wyoming was favored by around 3.5. is new mexico state covering that game even 10% of the time if they played 1000 times this year? i doubt it. so say you beat that line and get new mexico state at +6.5 and beat the line by 3 points. that is still a losing bet on average.

there is no more to say than this

11138-11294-432 (0.14, 49.7%)

[fried cheese]

there is no more to say than this

11138-11294-432 (0.14, 49.7%)

yes if half the ppl bet each side that happens. i already said they are efficient at evening out the total bets.

[danshan11]

yes if half the ppl bet each side that happens. i already said they are efficient at evening out the total bets.

oh you are saying when you see Toledo Community college at -10 and you think it should be -4 that in that scenario it does not go 50-50 ATS? I have to disagree but I understand the point

[danshan11]

example I bet Ohio -30.5 -110 and it closed -31.5 -105ish but anyway
I had a 50-50 chance at 31.5
I now have a 52-48 chance at 30.5
who covers in this game or the next thousand who knows but Ohio should cover 30.5 520 out of 1000

[fried cheese]

you are just randomly deciding you have a 50% chance at 31.5. if college teams played the same team 12 times in a row for the regular season and books had to use the closing line for the first game as the line for every game that year then do you think books would still be profitable?

you think you have a 50% chance because if that bet was actually a 60% chance you wouldnt know since the game isnt played out multiple times. but you will average 50% on closing lines because some bets you choose will be 40% also. obviously some games will be around 50% but some will be 70% or 30%.

[KVB]

Lines are not always efficient.

Sometimes I analyize the market under that lens, regardless of whether they are or not.

But sometimes, they just plain aren't.

March Madness is a great example.

The college basketball Saturday before the Super Bowl, another time where many lines are way out of whack.

It happens all the time because market circumstances lead to rushes on games, sometimes that rush is driven, or led, by sharper market moving money, sometimes not.

The books have a lot of control here, obviously, but an active market drives money, creating inefficiencies.

It takes a forecast or prediction that is completely independent of the opening or closing line, one that can be made before the opener is hung, to help find these inefficiencies when it is compared to the line.

It also helps to understand some of the mechanisms at play that cause money to move and cause runs on teams.

Put the two together and you can identify profitable situations long term.

Those become great spot bets.

[Louisvillekid1]

There is no blueprint

Just live and learn

try your best to not repeat mistakes

and don’t gamble your families money

——

if I May

Some simply have it ,

if you don’t by now,

save your money

—-

dont chase a mythical dragon to slay

unless you seen him before

[Alfa1234]

Update:

Kazma al tadamon L

neman grodna W

mlada karvina W

getafe valladolid L

south melbourne port melbourne

newcastle saracens

pyunik lori vanadzor L

universidad catolica el nacional

montpeller la roche L

worcester wasps L

worcester wasps W

nadal basilashvili

Parma juve W

shakhtar mariupol L

Crystal palace southampton W

Krupa Mostar W

stuttgart bayern W

Nitra Zlate moravce W

eskisehirspor karabukspor L

Wurzburger Wehen WiesbadenW

Forward Linkoping W

Karlslund Syrianska W

Stade Tunisien Stade Gabesien L

setubal belenenses u19 L

Castres Lyon L

Skopje Shkendia So far +6.32 units with 5 still open.

[danshan11]

Lines are not always efficient.

Sometimes I analyize the market under that lens, regardless of whether they are or not.

But sometimes, they just plain aren't.

March Madness is a great example.

The college basketball Saturday before the Super Bowl, another time where many lines are way out of whack.

It happens all the time because market circumstances lead to rushes on games, sometimes that rush is driven, or led, by sharper market moving money, sometimes not.

The books have a lot of control here, obviously, but an active market drives money, creating inefficiencies.

It takes a forecast or prediction that is completely independent of the opening or closing line, one that can be made before the opener is hung, to help find these inefficiencies when it is compared to the line.

It also helps to understand some of the mechanisms at play that cause money to move and cause runs on teams.

Put the two together and you can identify profitable situations long term.

Those become great spot bets.

KVB love you

[danshan11]

Alfa oh my god wtf are you betting what are those teams, high school indian softball?, LMAO dude stop you could be losing all or winning all nobody knows who "kusbtafhtg" college is, LMAO

[milwaukee mike]

Alfa oh my god wtf are you betting what are those teams, high school indian softball?, LMAO dude stop you could be losing all or winning all nobody knows who "kusbtafhtg" college is, LMAO

there can be value in small sports and smaller soccer leagues but if you win on it then like me you end up having $10 limits so there is no point

[Alfa1234]

Alfa oh my god wtf are you betting what are those teams, high school indian softball?, LMAO dude stop you could be losing all or winning all nobody knows who "kusbtafhtg" college is, LMAO

It's mostly soccer and I've been doing this for a long time. It's much easier to beat smaller markets although there are big markets in there as well. All games can easily be looked up at flashscore and sofascore. If you can't find one just ask and I'll post a link.

[Alfa1234]

there can be value in small sports and smaller soccer leagues but if you win on it then like me you end up having $10 limits so there is no point

Which is why I bet offline.

[milwaukee mike]

Which is why I bet offline.

beating someone close to me (local) for thousands of dollars has been worse than losing... have to pretty much beg to get paid and have someone act totally unprofessional, like i'm stealing from him

if you have better locals then kudos, but at some point every local is gonna ban and/or stiff you

[Optional]

Let’s just say 98% lose long-term

If I'm hitting under 60% of my bets I'm having a bad month I don't understand why you w would keep betting if u suck but then u need losers to have winners

I am ahead lifetime on sports betting and would not call myself a sharp.

Bankroll management is my key advantage. And only betting in good spots, based on fundamentals, not just number analysis.

Betting daily just for the sake of betting on something makes it almost impossible to stay ahead imho.

[Optional]

this would be assuming the line is not efficient and in these markets , I have no idea, I never even heard of any of these things he is betting nor do I know the margins on these leagues

Why are you even commenting if you cannot see any further past the end of your nose than to bet only Sides/Totals in major US sports... whilst also claiming those markets are super efficient and can't be beat?

Blows my mind how many around here parrot the same stuff they see others say and laugh at people who think for themselves!


Pretty sure Alfa is an ongoing winner btw. He has the sort of problems with books trying to shut him down without proper reasons that suggests he is too sharp from them.

[lonegambler23]

lol who are you betting on u14 games?

[Alfa1234]

beating someone close to me (local) for thousands of dollars has been worse than losing... have to pretty much beg to get paid and have someone act totally unprofessional, like i'm stealing from him

if you have better locals then kudos, but at some point every local is gonna ban and/or stiff you

You misunderstand what I mean by "local". I don't mean some unregulated guy taking bets. I'm talking local betting shops, with machines and staff. If you manage it well, spread your bets and change shops all the time you can stay under the radar.

[Alfa1234]

Update:

Kazma al tadamon L

neman grodna W

mlada karvina W

getafe valladolid L

south melbourne port melbourne W

newcastle saracens

pyunik lori vanadzor L

universidad catolica el nacionalW

montpeller la roche L

worcester wasps L

worcester wasps W

nadal basilashvili

Parma juve W

shakhtar mariupol L

Crystal palace southampton W

Krupa Mostar W

stuttgart bayern W

Nitra Zlate moravce W

eskisehirspor karabukspor L

Wurzburger Wehen WiesbadenW

Forward Linkoping W

Karlslund Syrianska W

Stade Tunisien Stade Gabesien L

setubal belenenses u19 L

Castres Lyon L

Skopje Shkendia So far +6.32 units with 5 still open.

Above adjusted. +8.12 units now with 3 open bets.

[Optional]

@milwaukeemike ^^^ what he's doing could be next easy opportunity as US legalizes but before industry matures.

[OTWinner]

This means a lot of my picks will be posted after the plays. Lololol

Us degenerates can care less about your plays we have to worry about our own.

Dont waste your time posting weak local bookie lines hear. No one cares.

[Alfa1234]

First bets of the day (and for those not paying attention, posted well before they are played and the odds are still there).

Guangzhou Shanghai BTS at 2.17
Dynamo Kiev Karpaty X2 at 5.75
Lazio Frosinone U3.5 bookings at 2