So you think winning long term is impossible?

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  • Alfa1234
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-15
    • 2722

    #1
    So you think winning long term is impossible?
    Starting tomorrow, I will proove it's not. Purely math based betting. I will post regularly, but mostly at the end of the day because during the day I'll be busy with models and calculations. This means a lot of the picks will be posted after the plays, but some will be posted before the plays are done.

    You will see I am mostly beating the closing line on picks.

    All bets are placed at a local bookie. I won't reveal the name but can post a bet ticket with the bookie name blurred out. I can only post my losing tickets though, because the winning tickets are taken when redeemed. In rare cases I can post a winning bet if I had it in my hands before the game is played. Usually that means the game is a few days away. I bet through the phone, which is why I don't have the tickets all the time.

    I often have multiple tickets for a single game because of betting limits.

    Ask me for pics of the losing tickets and I'll give them to you. This can take several days because I don't pick up the tickets every day.

    I hope this thread will put the discussion of what you need to do to win long term to rest. It's simple...you have to beat the closing line.

    I'll simplify the thread by using a fixed 1 unit staking plan for each bet regardless of odds, but the real numbers are somewhat different.

    Tailing will not be possible because the line will have moved by the time the bets have been posted.
  • daneblazer
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 09-14-08
    • 27861

    #2
    Thanks and good luck
    Comment
    • Alfa1234
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-15
      • 2722

      #3
      Picks 31 august were:

      Kazma Al Tadamon X2 at 3.85 L
      Neman Grodna Kometa 1 at 3.05 W
      Mlada Boleslav Karvina U19 X2 at 1.95 W
      Getafe Valladolid U9.5 corners at 2.19 L
      South Melbourne Port Melbourne X2 at 2.02
      Newcastle Saracens 2 -6 at 1.87
      Pyunik Lori Vanadzor 1 at 2.92
      Universidad Catolica El Nacional X2 at 1.78
      Montpellier La Rochelle 2 +13 at 1.87
      Worcester London Wasps 1 at 3.2
      Worcester London Wasps 1 +7 at 1.87
      Comment
      • Hugh Madbrough
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-08-12
        • 834

        #4
        11 bets in one day, though?
        Comment
        • shadymcgrady
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-27-12
          • 10036

          #5
          Comment
          • Alfa1234
            SBR MVP
            • 12-19-15
            • 2722

            #6
            Originally posted by Hugh Madbrough
            11 bets in one day, though?
            Friday is busy because of soccer, Saturdays can be a lot more. Tuesdays and Thursdays will be very slow and I often take them off.
            Comment
            • mdunlap3
              SBR MVP
              • 02-18-13
              • 1847

              #7
              Randomness wins. Sorry man. You can’t solve this math problem.
              Comment
              • danshan11
                SBR MVP
                • 07-08-17
                • 4101

                #8
                dude what you dont get is, if you win in a small sample size you are a hero and legend and if you lose in a small sample the thread will die. some dont or wont even care to look at the line, trust me!
                Comment
                • Alfa1234
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-15
                  • 2722

                  #9
                  Originally posted by danshan11
                  dude what you dont get is, if you win in a small sample size you are a hero and legend and if you lose in a small sample the thread will die. some dont or wont even care to look at the line, trust me!
                  I'll keep posting even after a losing week. Math wins in the end.
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    It’s very very hard unless you’re incorporating arbing and bonuses

                    The only other way long term is spot betting but that’s very hard to be that disciplined
                    Comment
                    • grease lightnin
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-01-12
                      • 16015

                      #11
                      So... you are gonna post your picks after the games have started to PROVE you can win?

                      Ok
                      Comment
                      • lakerboy
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 04-02-09
                        • 94379

                        #12
                        Not this again
                        Comment
                        • Sam Odom
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-30-05
                          • 58063

                          #13
                          Numbers Guy
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            The best way is just to bet money you can afford to lose
                            Comment
                            • grease lightnin
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 10-01-12
                              • 16015

                              #15
                              Originally posted by jjgold
                              The best way is just to bet money you can afford to lose
                              Just like buying a ticket
                              Comment
                              • pimike
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 03-23-08
                                • 37139

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                It’s very very hard unless you’re incorporating arbing and bonuses

                                The only other way long term is spot betting but that’s very hard to be that disciplined
                                That’s key!!!
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  Mike a spot bettor
                                  Comment
                                  • Sam Odom
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-30-05
                                    • 58063

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Alfa1234

                                    Purely math based betting.

                                    Originally posted by Sam Odom

                                    Numbers Guy


                                    Comment
                                    • fried cheese
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-17-13
                                      • 4461

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by grease lightnin
                                      So... you are gonna post your picks after the games have started to PROVE you can win?

                                      Ok
                                      what? you think he has a free 2 seconds to copy and paste his bet here after he places it? hes too busy doing math.
                                      Comment
                                      • KVB
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-29-14
                                        • 74817

                                        #20
                                        Great thread. I hope you have a bunch of locals so you can shop for the best lines.

                                        The more, the better.

                                        Comment
                                        • Alfa1234
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-19-15
                                          • 2722

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                          Great thread. I hope you have a bunch of locals so you can shop for the best lines.

                                          The more, the better.

                                          A few local bookies due to betting limits actually. I'm not always able to get on the stake I want. For the doubters I'm happy to post tickets as said in FP.

                                          I'll try and update during the day as well, before the actual games start.
                                          Comment
                                          • 19th Hole
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 03-22-09
                                            • 18935

                                            #22
                                            Best Of Luck...You will need that along with an accountant
                                            to untangle the myriad of daily action and opening and closing lines.

                                            I hope that you are successful. .
                                            Comment
                                            • Louisvillekid1
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-17-07
                                              • 52143

                                              #23
                                              If you tail me
                                              Comment
                                              • Alfa1234
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-19-15
                                                • 2722

                                                #24
                                                First part of Bets 1 sept (all posted before the game)

                                                Nadal Basilashvili 2 first set at 8.5
                                                Parma Juventus 2 wins by exactly 1 at 4.15
                                                Shakhtar Mariupol BTS at 3.01
                                                Crystal Palace Southampton 2 at 3.85
                                                Krupa Zrinjski 2 at 2.0
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  We shall see

                                                  Many come and go man
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Sawyer
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 06-01-09
                                                    • 7720

                                                    #26
                                                    Betting value wins over long haul, it's a proven fact. If you're not betting value, you cannot win.
                                                    Very few people manage to win over long haul but we're talking about a very rare minority.
                                                    Last edited by Sawyer; 09-01-18, 06:25 AM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                      • 2722

                                                      #27
                                                      Part 2 of today:

                                                      Nitra Zlate Moravce 1 at 1.6
                                                      Stuttgart Bayern under 3.5 bookings at 2.1
                                                      Eskisehirspor Karabukspor X2 at 2.21
                                                      Comment
                                                      • jjgold
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 07-20-05
                                                        • 388179

                                                        #28
                                                        Let’s just say 98% lose long-term
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Shutup
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-15-17
                                                          • 2435

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by jjgold
                                                          Let’s just say 98% lose long-term
                                                          I think you mean 99.9999999999999999999%. Long term to me means over your entire lifetime of betting. Very few win like that. Usually it is big money bettors who pick and choose games. Best option is to become a handicapper and bet half your profits from clients and keep the rest. Just don't be a scumbag tout.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Alfa1234
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-19-15
                                                            • 2722

                                                            #30
                                                            2 more as 1 is about to begin:

                                                            Wurzburger Kickers Wiesbaden 1 at 2.15
                                                            Forward Linkoping O3.5 at 2.4
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Alfa1234
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-19-15
                                                              • 2722

                                                              #31
                                                              And a few more:

                                                              Karlslund Syrianska 2 at 2.2
                                                              Stade Tunisien Stade Gabesien X2 at 1.83
                                                              Comment
                                                              • MiDNiTe
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-11-13
                                                                • 7684

                                                                #32
                                                                If I'm hitting under 60% of my bets I'm having a bad month I don't understand why you w would keep betting if u suck but then u need losers to have winners
                                                                Comment
                                                                • vividjohn45
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-21-10
                                                                  • 6331

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Hugh Madbrough
                                                                  11 bets in one day, though?
                                                                  Haha. Fudd this shiznibbett.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • milwaukee mike
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 08-22-07
                                                                    • 26914

                                                                    #34
                                                                    what benefit is anyone here gonna get by posting lines that aren't available at the time of posting?

                                                                    of course you can win if all your bets are at better lines than the market
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Alfa1234
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-15
                                                                      • 2722

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by milwaukee mike
                                                                      what benefit is anyone here gonna get by posting lines that aren't available at the time of posting?

                                                                      of course you can win if all your bets are at better lines than the market
                                                                      I'll happily post the tickets when I get them because the lines were available when I took them. That is the point, a lot of people here believe beating the closing line does not matter. It's the only thing that matters.
                                                                      Comment
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