Paterno, Penn State look to lead Big Ten
Paterno, Penn State look to lead Big Ten
Beaten down by the press and the fans as overrated in recent years, the Big Ten might be valuable to bettors in '09. Whether or not the conference can unseat either the SEC or Big 12 atop the college gridiron polls remains to be seen however. Joe Paterno, 82-years young, returns to guide the Penn State Nittany Lions while sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor will lead Ohio State with the Buckeyes the favorites to take the conference title.
The Big Ten has taken its lumps. The program at Michigan is rebuilding after a 3-9 campaign (2-10 ATS), the most losses in a season since the Wolverines were born in 1879. Ohio State was beaten in the BCS Championship Game two years running before losing last year’s Fiesta Bowl to Texas. Out of 11 teams in the conference, only four were profitable for handicappers in 2008.
Buy low, sell high. The Big Ten is in good shape for a rebound season in 2009; teams like Iowa are poised to move up from the middle class to challenge for the conference title, and featherweights like Indiana have taken the steps necessary to bulk up their chances of playing a competitive brand of football.
Our capsule preview of all 11 teams (including NCAA championship betting odds, and listed in order of predicted finish) will help you get an early start on the gold rush.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes are looking forward to a full year with sophomore Terrelle Pryor (12 TD passing, six TD rushing, four interceptions) at quarterback. There’s been enough turnover on the offensive line to be worried, but the defense is strong as always.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (30-1): Arguably a better value on the futures market; definitely undervalued last year at 7-4-1 ATS and denied a spot in the Rose Bowl. QB Daryll Clark (19 TDs, six INTs) was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. They get to play OSU at home this year.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1): The Hawkeyes (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished No. 17 in the nation in efficiency according to Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats – one spot ahead of Ohio State. The under was 7-4-1 for this brilliant defense, which remains largely intact for 2009.
4. Michigan State Spartans (75-1): The Spartans are returning 15 starters, but there is some concern over the team’s future at quarterback, where Kirk Cousins and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol battle for the top job. Another nine-win season should still be in the cards for MSU.
5. Wisconsin Badgers (100-1): Wisconsin (7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) took a step back last year after being touted as a fringe BCS bowl candidate. QB Dustin Sherer will be under center from the get-go after taking over from Allan Evridge last October, and he’ll work behind a solid offensive line.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (75-1): This team was lucky to get to the Rose Bowl in 2007 and played like it in 2008 at 5-7 (4-7 ATS). We’re looking for a more consistent performance on offense from QB Juice Williams (22 TDs, 16 INTs) in his sophomore campaign.
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (150-1): The Gophers have most of their defense back and should benefit from playing on campus at the new TCF Bank Stadium. The switch to new coordinator Tim Davis and his emphasis on the running game should also help the Gophers cash in.
8. Michigan Wolverines (150-1): Let’s cut coach Rich Rodriguez a little slack here – if only from a betting perspective. This is his second year in charge and his first with true freshman Tate Forcier at quarterback. The schedule is favorable with just four road games, Iowa being the toughest opponent of the four.
9. Northwestern Wildcats (Field, 40-1): Northwestern surprised most everyone by winning nine games (7-5 ATS), four of them by a TD or less. This year it’s up to QB Mike Kafka to make the leap after three years of holding a clipboard for C.J. Bacher.
10. Purdue Boilermakers (150-1): This is a major rebuilding year for the Boilers with Danny Hope at head coach and sweeping changes on both sides of the ball. Many of Hope’s young players are NFL prospects who hope to mature quickly as the season wears on.
11. Indiana Hoosiers (Field): Things can’t get much worse after last year’s 3-9 finish (2-8-1 ATS). There is hope for upward mobility on defense with Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew on the line and Matt Mayberry at middle linebacker.
Beaten down by the press and the fans as overrated in recent years, the Big Ten might be valuable to bettors in '09. Whether or not the conference can unseat either the SEC or Big 12 atop the college gridiron polls remains to be seen however. Joe Paterno, 82-years young, returns to guide the Penn State Nittany Lions while sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor will lead Ohio State with the Buckeyes the favorites to take the conference title.
The Big Ten has taken its lumps. The program at Michigan is rebuilding after a 3-9 campaign (2-10 ATS), the most losses in a season since the Wolverines were born in 1879. Ohio State was beaten in the BCS Championship Game two years running before losing last year’s Fiesta Bowl to Texas. Out of 11 teams in the conference, only four were profitable for handicappers in 2008.
Buy low, sell high. The Big Ten is in good shape for a rebound season in 2009; teams like Iowa are poised to move up from the middle class to challenge for the conference title, and featherweights like Indiana have taken the steps necessary to bulk up their chances of playing a competitive brand of football.
Our capsule preview of all 11 teams (including NCAA championship betting odds, and listed in order of predicted finish) will help you get an early start on the gold rush.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1): The Buckeyes are looking forward to a full year with sophomore Terrelle Pryor (12 TD passing, six TD rushing, four interceptions) at quarterback. There’s been enough turnover on the offensive line to be worried, but the defense is strong as always.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions (30-1): Arguably a better value on the futures market; definitely undervalued last year at 7-4-1 ATS and denied a spot in the Rose Bowl. QB Daryll Clark (19 TDs, six INTs) was the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2008. They get to play OSU at home this year.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes (100-1): The Hawkeyes (9-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished No. 17 in the nation in efficiency according to Brian Fremeau’s advanced stats – one spot ahead of Ohio State. The under was 7-4-1 for this brilliant defense, which remains largely intact for 2009.
4. Michigan State Spartans (75-1): The Spartans are returning 15 starters, but there is some concern over the team’s future at quarterback, where Kirk Cousins and Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol battle for the top job. Another nine-win season should still be in the cards for MSU.
5. Wisconsin Badgers (100-1): Wisconsin (7-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) took a step back last year after being touted as a fringe BCS bowl candidate. QB Dustin Sherer will be under center from the get-go after taking over from Allan Evridge last October, and he’ll work behind a solid offensive line.
6. Illinois Fighting Illini (75-1): This team was lucky to get to the Rose Bowl in 2007 and played like it in 2008 at 5-7 (4-7 ATS). We’re looking for a more consistent performance on offense from QB Juice Williams (22 TDs, 16 INTs) in his sophomore campaign.
7. Minnesota Golden Gophers (150-1): The Gophers have most of their defense back and should benefit from playing on campus at the new TCF Bank Stadium. The switch to new coordinator Tim Davis and his emphasis on the running game should also help the Gophers cash in.
8. Michigan Wolverines (150-1): Let’s cut coach Rich Rodriguez a little slack here – if only from a betting perspective. This is his second year in charge and his first with true freshman Tate Forcier at quarterback. The schedule is favorable with just four road games, Iowa being the toughest opponent of the four.
9. Northwestern Wildcats (Field, 40-1): Northwestern surprised most everyone by winning nine games (7-5 ATS), four of them by a TD or less. This year it’s up to QB Mike Kafka to make the leap after three years of holding a clipboard for C.J. Bacher.
10. Purdue Boilermakers (150-1): This is a major rebuilding year for the Boilers with Danny Hope at head coach and sweeping changes on both sides of the ball. Many of Hope’s young players are NFL prospects who hope to mature quickly as the season wears on.
11. Indiana Hoosiers (Field): Things can’t get much worse after last year’s 3-9 finish (2-8-1 ATS). There is hope for upward mobility on defense with Greg Middleton and Jammie Kirlew on the line and Matt Mayberry at middle linebacker.