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Get your broke dik non pro ass out of hereComment -
Why do I have a sharp badge ??Comment -
Yeah it's comparable to those who missed out on Amazon stock when it launched years ago. Do what you want with your money as I will with mine. Truly I could careless. I win more than I lose unlike your guys dik lover jjComment -
If you blindly fade SBR, with the exceptions of LT, Hugo, and hot cross, there's a never-ending pot of gold.
But what do you do instead? Tail and get all pissy when they lose.
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1-0 fading jjpenniesComment -
He excluded the juice ? Square af bruh .... unrealComment -
From a money standpoint/bottom line this thread & your point is an absolute nightmare FAIL ! Try again pal .....Comment -
Beat the Prick is a great contest here. Why don't we have a "Can you beat JJ Gold"? It would not be that hard to set up - would it?Comment -
KVB interesting. What you are saying is for a standard -110 line on a spread, there are two possible outcomes (exclude push):
Loss = -110 risked
Win = +100 which returns a total of 210 on a risk of 110 = 90.9% return on investment
therefore the vig is technically "paid" by the winner.
Who would rather have a 0% return vs. 90% return? That much is obvious.
But the next question. How would this situation of "paying vig" be explained for those players only using Moneylines? For example looking at tomorrow's Cubs game -140 vs +129 Cardinals.Comment -
It can be looked at from different angles but in the end it’s the same outcome. The winner is being shorted on the odds and the difference is the commission, or vig.
I realize lines are set with different goals in mind but let’s keep it simple and let’s assume that with the books seek that 50-50 balance. If you were a small book, you would want to operate like this…
The books would first try to figure what a proper, no-vig line would be for the game. What is the actual probability of a team winning?
In your example, the books are using an 11 cent line, like Ralphie said. What’s the vig? The incorrect way, but a common way to calculate the vig is to just add and subtract ½ of the 11 cent difference. That gives a no vig line of -134.5/+134.5.
This is wrong.
What a bookie should do is calculate his no vig line then convert that to a percentage. Then add a percentage to that line that he wants to keep. When dealing with say a 70% winner vs 30% loser, adding 2% to each number results in a different addition on each number. This is why novices using ½ the 11 cent difference are wrong, they are adding the same thing to each number.
So back to your example: A reasonable number, using my numbers as well, is that the books, assuming again the efficient market, have this game at about 57.2%/42.8%.
This translates to a no vig line of about -133.5/+133.5. Books often round so call it -135/+135. Note this basically the same as the “wrong” example above. As the numbers get higher, the difference in methods becomes more paramount.
By charging -140 for a -135 price and only paying +129 for a +135 “fair” payout, the book is keeping a certain percentage. Can you figure out that percentage? It’s the vig.
If you cap the game and decide it’s a pick em, then that +129 doesn’t look too bad in terms of value. I think the books are showing about -135/+135 as a fair no vig price with your example but sometimes they can set lines that they know will draw action certain directions and the market can shape any line, regardless of why it was set. If you think it’s efficient at close, then you can basically figure the hold the book has, or shows.
Let’s see what happens tomorrow.
One more thing: once you start to get higher lines, like about -144 or so, the often seen “10 cent” line begins to grow. As you get real high, the lines become 20 cent or more in difference. The vig gets higher and higher.
In your example, the -129/+140 11 cent line could be -145/+125 as a 20 cent line; just plain more expensive on both sides.
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So what about that hold percentage? Here’s an easy way to figure out the vig the book is charging.
First we have to go back the probability given or implied by the price. We can do this with risk reward:
Risk/Total Return= Probability.
-140: 140/240=58.33%.
+129: 100/229=43.67%
But 58.33% +43.67% is more than 100%, it’s 102%. Remember, the book added some vig.
To figure the books no vig probability, we have to divide the Probability above by the total of both of them…102%
58.33/102=57.2%
43.67/102=42.8%
Add them up and now we get 100%. Convert them to baseball odds and we get -133.64/+133.64.
That’s a decent estimation of your no vig line that the book was thinking when they posted -140/+129.
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This one is for Buns and his commute mix...
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How many points do you want for this post?So what about that hold percentage? Here’s an easy way to figure out the vig the book is charging.
First we have to go back the probability given or implied by the price. We can do this with risk reward:
Risk/Total Return= Probability.
-140: 140/240=58.33%.
+129: 100/229=43.67%
But 58.33% +43.67% is more than 100%, it’s 102%. Remember, the book added some vig.
To figure the books no vig probability, we have to divide the Probability above by the total of both of them…102%
58.33/102=57.2%
43.67/102=42.8%
Add them up and now we get 100%. Convert them to baseball odds and we get -133.64/+133.64.
That’s a decent estimation of your no vig line that the book was thinking when they posted -140/+129.
SBR needs more of this.Comment -
It is not a good idea to fade anyone, period.Comment -
KVB thanks for the info and explanations about moneylines. Enjoyed it very much.
However the song, not so much. If we are laiming for "king themed" songs, this is more my speed:
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I just glossed over this last part but if your making a simple spreadsheet for this then here’s how I got the “baseball odds”… also known as American odds…
For the favorite (above 50% probability of winning)
Moneyline = probability / (100 – probability), then multiply by -100.
So 58.33/41.67 = 1.3998. You may notice some live lines showing -140 but when you buy you get -13998 on your ticket.
For the dog (below 50% probability)
Moneyline = (100 – probability) / probability, with the 100 multiplier.
56.33 / 43.67 = 1.2899
You can get the final to the right minus 3 digit number with any combo of (-) and 100 multipliers for a spreadsheet.
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Knights all over the Kings, we are happy with that result.
We need Knight songs...
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jj gold is good guyComment -
Chills juice kills everyone long term know matter what strategy you choose.Comment -
JJ's $10,000 spot play bets are money
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Cannot find top
Plays latelyComment -
well my friend, there are certainly songs about Knights.
But better than all of those, was a vocalist named Knight.
Gladys Maria Knight (born May 28, 1944), known as the "Empress of Soul"
"I Heard It Through the Grapevine" is a song written by Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong for Motown Records in 1966. The first recording of the song to be released was produced by Whitfield for..... Gladys Knight & the Pips and released as a single in September 1967; it went to number two in the Billboard chart.
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