Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[RangeFinder]

Markets now getting weaker after a strong open. The nervous bulls are selling and letting the bears back in the game with shorts and puts. Wobbly markets today for sure. Stay nimble.

[topgame85]

Major downswing on the growth names. Dies this accelerate tomorrow or low volume buyers move in tomorrow?

[KVB]

Markets now getting weaker after a strong open. The nervous bulls are selling and letting the bears back in the game with shorts and puts. Wobbly markets today for sure. Stay nimble.

I have puts on the genreral indices and some etfs, bought them last time I was in here talking about it and just saw green since.

Holding strong, lol.

[puckk]

Don't be scared

down down to goblin town

[ex50warrior]

Wow, commodity stocks got hammered today! Copper, gold, oil...like them all. Will add to positions tomorrow.

[guitarjosh]

The dotted lines are junk bonds.
Solid lines are consumer discretionary compared to consumer staples.
Histogram is insider buying.

Those tend to lead the market.

Candlesticks are the S&P 500.

[Slurry Pumper]

Lets see a failed breakout with a big reversal yesterday. That usually adds up to some more downside. This one could get ugly so I got some puts yesterday when I witnessed the SPY come back down and enter back into the range it has been in for the last week or so. I'll ride those today and get out regardless for the weekend.
Keep that powder dry as I don't think the downslide in commodities will last all that long, and for god's sake stay away from the tech stocks on the dip here. Tech is dead people and it will be for a while. I bought those long term Puts in the QQQ that expire next Jan like I mentioned in the beginning of the week.

[KVB]

Here we go.

Good work Slurry, as always.

Guitarjosh with a solid post too.



Rooting for my puts now!

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

Getting pummeled. This shnizzle blows

[homie1975]

The dotted lines are junk bonds.
Solid lines are consumer discretionary compared to consumer staples.
Histogram is insider buying.

Those tend to lead the market.

Candlesticks are the S&P 500.

Josher please interpret this for the laypeople (like me).

what is it forecasting near term?

[homie1975]

Getting pummeled. This shnizzle blows

you have not lost a penny until you sell.

i am going nowhere on my growth stocks getting hammered. will look to average down in the near term.

[KVB]

Josher please interpret this for the laypeople (like me).

what is it forecasting near term?

Down.

He forecasted today.



Look at everything it that chart. Then look at the S&P most recent candlestick.

Everyone should take Josh's post to heart.

If you want to trade technically, and find somewhat predictive metrics, Josh is revealing something there.

Take note.

[NoDraMa4YoMaMa]

you have not lost a penny until you sell.

i am going nowhere on my growth stocks getting hammered. will look to average down in the near term.

yeah yeah, still crying like a baby.....

[d2bets]

you have not lost a penny until you sell.

i am going nowhere on my growth stocks getting hammered. will look to average down in the near term.

You also haven't profited a penny until you sell.

[Slurry Pumper]

It's not my chart but I'll add some things I noticed.

1st notice how the solid lines, dotted line, and histogram are all moving from the upper left to the lower right. This means things are diminishing. I think these are consumer discretionary junk bonds and insider trading. So pretty much it is a tell on how the sentiment is going over all, and it ain't good. Then lets look at the candle sticks. Recently the price made a move up from the recent lows and he has the fibonacci retracement lines in blue. Usually when the price gets up to the 61.8% level we can say that was a good one. This particular one got to what looks like 70-75% which is strong. The price immediately got rejected after spiking through the $4600 level and came down to around 4400. Then it has been bouncing around for a few days going up to around the 4470 level. So far this is a classic bear flag pattern as I pointed out last weekend. Usually this means price will keep on going down. This time however price broke above the channel for a few days before yesterday making a gap up in the morning and taking a big ass dump know as a gap and crap. All day long yesterdat price made its way down to where. The lower level of the channel of the bear flag. This is another indicator that things are headed lower. Some would even say that yesterday is an outside reversal with the previous 2 days worth of trading. Yet another bad sign. Not shown on the chart is today's action which confirms all the bad news with giant dump down to the 4300 spot. Which as I type this is where I think the move will end for today at least. If they really want to put a staple on it, later it could make a move down to the $4265 spot but I think that is probably not going to happen, but could.

[KVB]

Love this thread.

Wish I had more time in the day. It can be so hard to wear a stock market cap early and sports market cap later in the day.

So much to deal with.

But I feel like I am lacking in contribution here that could supplement, and only supplement, some of the great outlooks already presented.

Good work guys. It's nice to a serious part of SBR maintain that seriousness.

Thank you.

[Madison]

you have not lost a penny until you sell.

i am going nowhere on my growth stocks getting hammered. will look to average down in the near term.

Catching the proverbial falling knife here (Long term conviction plays COST, NVDA, UNH, etc), although have a big % in soon to expire cd's. So, will have more liquidity soon.

Homie, I don't know how you do it, but all my best!

[Madison]

Flight to safety

Like it or not, Equities have been the only game in town for quite a while. Retail investors who want to preserve their capital are now seeing/expecting higher returns in safe havens cd's/ibonds and the overall money flows are confirming. Lot of safe money has been sitting on the sideline, and other have had their fingers on the sell button for some time.

Lot of retail investor fear in the market right now. When everyone's selling a prudent, long term, investor will look to DCA their way into solid companies.

Swallowing a bowling ball here, but luckily been reducing portfolio for 6 mo's or so.

[Madison]

Commodities

Appear to be the proverbial baby getting flushed out with the bathwater. Do yourself a favor and start looking at Lithium, Uranium, etc.

Also looking hard at VALE.

[ex50warrior]

Wow, commodity stocks got hammered today! Copper, gold, oil...like them all. Will add to positions tomorrow.

So I sold out-of-the-money put options against a handful of my favorite commodity stocks. Expiration 4/29.
Either I end up purchasing these stocks at a lower price or I just keep the premium. Not sure what my preference is.

[dlowilly]

Stock market is like dating Amber Heard

Today was the shit the bed incident

[Slurry Pumper]

I guess I got that wrong, they did run it down to almost 4265. Selling into the close for the weekend. That isn't all that good either.

[guitarjosh]

I guess I got that wrong, they did run it down to almost 4265. Selling into the close for the weekend. That isn't all that good either.

Nope, we could have a waterfall Monday.

[homie1975]

Stock market is like dating Amber Heard

Today was the shit the bed incident

for many it is heading toward oppty

[homie1975]

Catching the proverbial falling knife here (Long term conviction plays COST, NVDA, UNH, etc), although have a big % in soon to expire cd's. So, will have more liquidity soon.

Homie, I don't know how you do it, but all my best!

i live totally within my means. i have a good time and treat my family and myself to nice things but while my buddies all bought tesla's i own two paid off japanese cars and all the money i'd be paying on car payments, goes into the stock market. i do pretty decent salary wise but i don't spend much outside my means. it's all for my kids' futre.

i don't put money in the market i will need within 5 to 7 years. "time in the market beats timing the market".

my stuff from 2020 still way up.

my stuff from 2021 way down.

my stuff from 2021 i was much more conservative with because i knew i was buying much higher than normal.

now the cash on the sidelines moves back in, in the coming weeks and months.

rinse and repeat.

i grade myself in Fall 2030 and 2032 when my kids start college, respectively.

[RangeFinder]

I'm going to start buying on the cheap soon. Probably Monday mid day. The best time to buy, is when everyone is selling. Probably going to put in a call on the DJIA, probably for late in the year.

Yes, I'm a contrarian here. Bigly.

[dlowilly]

for many it is heading toward oppty

Analogy holds though

People left holding the bag are Johnny Depps, people salivating because it's their chance to get in are her bi "friends"

[dlowilly]

i live totally within my means. i have a good time and treat my family and myself to nice things but while my buddies all bought tesla's i own two paid off japanese cars and all the money i'd be paying on car payments, goes into the stock market. i do pretty decent salary wise but i don't spend much outside my means. it's all for my kids' futre.

i don't put money in the market i will need within 5 to 7 years. "time in the market beats timing the market".

my stuff from 2020 still way up.

my stuff from 2021 way down.

my stuff from 2021 i was much more conservative with because i knew i was buying much higher than normal.

now the cash on the sidelines moves back in, in the coming weeks and months.

rinse and repeat.

i grade myself in Fall 2030 and 2032 when my kids start college, respectively.

Is that really true with the volatility these days though?

If you bought an S&P 500 index fund in mid 2000 you had to wait 13 years just to get even again. I think both time in and timing are crucial.

[homie1975]

Analogy holds though

People left holding the bag are Johnny Depps, people salivating because it's their chance to get in are her bi "friends"

well played

[homie1975]

Is that really true with the volatility these days though?

If you bought an S&P 500 index fund in mid 2000 you had to wait 13 years just to get even again. I think both time in and timing are crucial.

not if you averaged down at certain intervals such as every ~10% or ~15% down etc etc

the breakeven arrives much quicker when you dollar-cost-average.

[dlowilly]

not if you averaged down at certain intervals such as every ~10% or ~15% down etc etc

the breakeven arrives much quicker when you dollar-cost-average.

Isn't that a form of timing though?

[KVB]

Isn't that a form of timing though?

No.

Dollar cost averaging is more of a periodic move, in increments.

Marker timing is more about making a decision based on what's happening.

The difference is what is used to make the decision. DCA is periodic, timing is deciding based on market conditions and the info you have now.

By timing the market on something you own you will have likely made some kind of dollar cost average, but it's really about the decision making process.

[homie1975]

Isn't that a form of timing though?

Yes and no. You install discipline "I will only add more to the position if if drops by X percent. And I will only add more once again if it reduces by X percent again after the prior drop. Etc etc. It allows you to stay disciplined versus actual market timing which is more of an educated guess and a hope. Hence why 90% of day traders bust out.

Also make sure to read KVers reply. As usual he is more eloquent than I. I read his post above like three times !

Cheers.

[homie1975]

Also I literally NEVER raise my cost on a position. If I buy and it runs away from me, that's a great problem to have! I then go look for another good opportunity to open a position in. Buses arrive every few mins!

[dlowilly]

Also I literally NEVER raise my cost on a position. If I buy and it runs away from me, that's a great problem to have! I then go look for another good opportunity to open a position in. Buses arrive every few mins!

Hmmm seems kind of like a Martingale betting system there

What happens when you have little investments in a lot of stocks that have gone up but a whole bunch in DCAing a stock that goes bankrupt?

Works great until the one time it doesn't.