Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**A4K** · 05-02-18, 11:14 AM

Hope the Fed doesn't throw us a whammy, today..

**homie1975** · 05-02-18, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

Personally, looking for big things from SQ when they report earnings after hours today...

HR
as you know it's up 1.66% already. good luck and hope you get a big boost out of it !!

**HockeyRocks** · 05-02-18, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

HR
as you know it's up 1.66% already. good luck and hope you get a big boost out of it !!

Earnings better than last qtr., but not huge, down 5.8% for the day...Its a very speculative and volatile stock...Still long...

**KRIT** · 05-02-18, 05:24 PM

I know almost nothing about stocks but got a little over 80k sitting in mutual funds. All I know is it has been losing me money the past few months.

**homie1975** · 05-02-18, 06:17 PM

Keep an eye on BABA, they report on fri 5/4.
They are racing AMZN to potentially be the world's first trillion dollar company

**d2bets** · 05-03-18, 09:31 AM

More ugliness. Flirting again with the lows on the year from back in Feb and March.

**A4K** · 05-03-18, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by KRIT

I know almost nothing about stocks but got a little over 80k sitting in mutual funds. All I know is it has been losing me money the past few months.

When is your retirement horizon?

**KRIT** · 05-03-18, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by A4K

When is your retirement horizon?

I'm only 30 years old, so probably not for a long time. I got stocks in the Long Term Bond Index Fund, Emerging Markets Index Fund, 500 Index Fund, Growth Index Fund and Value Index Fund. I probably couldn't even tell you which one does well for me lol.

**jjgold** · 05-03-18, 07:49 PM

Only edge you have being a derivative trader is only when there are wild markets and very high volatility

Originally posted by A4K

As a derivatives trader, I am treading lightly until some of the Geo-political tension subsides. IMO there is no sense in holding large positions over night with my trading capital. My investment / IRA accounts are a different story but I have a much longer time horizon for those equities.

**A4K** · 05-03-18, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by KRIT

I'm only 30 years old, so probably not for a long time. I got stocks in the Long Term Bond Index Fund, Emerging Markets Index Fund, 500 Index Fund, Growth Index Fund and Value Index Fund. I probably couldn't even tell you which one does well for me lol.

You have a lifetime before you will ever need to touch that money. Just leave it alone and you will be golden.

**A4K** · 05-03-18, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Only edge you have being a derivative trader is only when there are wild markets and very high volatility

High volatility helps especially if you are selling premium. As someone that trades professionally as my only income source I can say this.... 2017 was pretty low volatility and it was still one of my best years. So far 2018 has been rewarding as well. Would like to see a decent pullback so that we can slingshot higher heading into the close of 2018.

**RoyBacon** · 05-04-18, 07:05 AM

We are just in a good ole fashion trading range.

Last 30 days;

We touch 260 on the SPY and go to 270. Touch 270 and back to 260.

An almost even amount of up and down shares traded as well.

**d2bets** · 05-04-18, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

We are just in a good ole fashion trading range.

Last 30 days;

We touch 260 on the SPY and go to 270. Touch 270 and back to 260.

An almost even amount of up and down shares traded as well.

What comes first? 255 or 275?

**d2bets** · 05-04-18, 09:42 AM

And now optimism is back on Wall Street?

**A4K** · 05-04-18, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

And now optimism is back on Wall Street?

I'm heading to golf but I would imagine AAPL is helping out today with the 75 million shares news that broke. Be curious to see if we are popping on low volume.

**homie1975** · 05-04-18, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

And now optimism is back on Wall Street?

i don't think it ever really left from the hard core followers. the fundamentals are very strong. it's all the geopolitical crap that's been causing the downward pressure most days.

May go away?? No Sir, I am going to STAY

**RoyBacon** · 05-04-18, 12:18 PM

You had the quarterlies and they showed the tax cut fueled economy expanding nicely. As many predicted. So you had a situation of buy the sizzle sell the news.

Now we have had some good selling, rotation and profit taking.

We most likely break to the up side as we begin working with a 2.95% 10 yr, 3 more rate hikes and wage growth that is going to be an issue via inflation soon and political risks that can't be overlooked.

Negative ships on the distant horizon but another solid qtr being made in real time. I think we have a near repeat of the 1st qtr. Choppy until we all realize the 2nd qtr is another blow out and buyers will dominate.

**d2bets** · 05-04-18, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

You had the quarterlies and they showed the tax cut fueled economy expanding nicely. As many predicted. So you had a situation of buy the sizzle sell the news.

Now we have had some good selling, rotation and profit taking.

We most likely break to the up side as we begin working with a 2.95% 10 yr, 3 more rate hikes and wage growth that is going to be an issue via inflation soon and political risks that can't be overlooked.

Negative ships on the distant horizon but another solid qtr being made in real time. I think we have a near repeat of the 1st qtr. Choppy until we all realize the 2nd qtr is another blow out and buyers will dominate.

Weird thing is for all the volatility in 2018 it's basically now level for the year and has traded within a range of +/-6% from flat.

**RoyBacon** · 05-07-18, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Weird thing is for all the volatility in 2018 it's basically now level for the year and has traded within a range of +/-6% from flat.

Option pricing is pricing in a little less volatility but we haven't see it yet. Kind of a post qtrly event.

Buying has been brisk with the Dow up 500 the past two days. I'll bet we have put an interim low in on the SPY at 259 and will establish a new range now. We will see what holds on the next sell off.

You got to like these rallies where buyers are literally buying everything they can find. Even bonds. Fuggin be buying dirt if they could find some. After this euphoria settles down let's see what sectors show relative strength.

**homie1975** · 05-09-18, 08:58 AM

i exited all positions last fri as i was concerned about negative news from the trade meetings with china plus the upcoming iran decision by trump, but it looks like i would have done better by sticking around. oh well, 20-20 hindsight. sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers.

large geopolitical crap still looming

**hubie69** · 05-09-18, 11:17 AM

Interesting thread, glad I found this.

**homie1975** · 05-09-18, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by hubie69

Interesting thread, glad I found this.

glad you're here. look forward to learning from you.

**homie1975** · 05-10-18, 10:59 AM

As Roy predicted, the bull market is climbing the wall of worry despite all of the noise on the political scene here and abroad.

interesting.

**d2bets** · 05-10-18, 02:02 PM

Nice 1-month high today. Might not be a ton of resistance until near 2,800. Room to run from here for sure with some big ER on tap. NVDA making all-time highs today reports after the bell.

**RoyBacon** · 05-10-18, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Nice 1-month high today. Might not be a ton of resistance until near 2,800. Room to run from here for sure with some big ER on tap. NVDA making all-time highs today reports after the bell.

Down about $7 but after such a big move it probably needed a breather.

I won't disagree there is room to run. And I think we will see new highs. I would still be worried about rates, which have come down a bit.

The argument is this a perfect storm for bulls? ie, soaring corp profits with stable rates and inflation. Buy the sell offs.

**Shafted69** · 05-10-18, 07:55 PM

Get out now while you can. Save yourselves. Recession is coming.

**homie1975** · 05-10-18, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Get out now while you can. Save yourselves. Recession is coming.

Right but when? fundamentals are very strong and there are no underlying systemic issues that anyone has come up with that we have a material worry about right now

**RoyBacon** · 05-10-18, 09:04 PM

I think shafted is a run of the mill broke dckk libtard.

The only way I see a stock market recession is a big Dem win in 2020, with a promise to raise taxes.

But keep an eye on rates. A 10 year US bond over 3.5% would be an alert, not necessarily a sell signal. But over 4% would be. Probably. Keep in mind we could gain 50% or more before we get to 3.5%. So buy weakness.

**guitarjosh** · 05-10-18, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Get out now while you can. Save yourselves. Recession is coming.

We probably won't have a recession until the yield curve inverts, and then it will take at least a year before a recession.

**RoyBacon** · 05-11-18, 07:18 AM

UEPS

This guy has been battered by shorts. Closed at $8.81 and is at $9.15-9.40 in the pre after good earnings AND reaffirming the rest of the year. Looking to earn $1.68, so it's PE is about 5, very under priced compliments of heavy shorting.

If it can open at $9.25ish it's a BUY. Going to be some shorts trying to get the heck out of this guy over the next few days.

**homie1975** · 05-11-18, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

UEPS

This guy has been battered by shorts. Closed at $8.81 and is at $9.15-9.40 in the pre after good earnings AND reaffirming the rest of the year. Looking to earn $1.68, so it's PE is about 5, very under priced compliments of heavy shorting.

If it can open at $9.25ish it's a BUY. Going to be some shorts trying to get the heck out of this guy over the next few days.

and up it goes..

**RoyBacon** · 05-11-18, 09:03 AM

Lot of shorts heading for the door.

I could see another $1.

**A4K** · 05-11-18, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

UEPS

This guy has been battered by shorts. Closed at $8.81 and is at $9.15-9.40 in the pre after good earnings AND reaffirming the rest of the year. Looking to earn $1.68, so it's PE is about 5, very under priced compliments of heavy shorting.

If it can open at $9.25ish it's a BUY. Going to be some shorts trying to get the heck out of this guy over the next few days.

Why do you bother with this low float stuff?

**A4K** · 05-11-18, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Get out now while you can. Save yourselves. Recession is coming.

Recessions are always coming but what is the time horizon?

The economy is relatively strong. However, market participants priced a lot of this great news in already in 2017. I want to see how the economy reacts as inflation rises and the Fed attempts to reign it in with rate hikes. As rates climb so will credit card payments, student loans, etc. If the working and lowering working class have to spend more of their money on things like loans and gasoline we will probably see earnings start to suffer for discretionary items.

I'm keeping my eye on a number of market "canary's" so to speak to avoid being the last out. We are fine right now.

**homie1975** · 05-11-18, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by A4K

Recessions are always coming but what is the time horizon?

The economy is relatively strong. However, market participants priced a lot of this great news in already in 2017. I want to see how the economy reacts as inflation rises and the Fed attempts to reign it in with rate hikes. As rates climb so will credit card payments, student loans, etc. If the working and lowering working class have to spend more of their money on things like loans and gasoline we will probably see earnings start to suffer for discretionary items.

I'm keeping my eye on a number of market "canary's" so to speak to avoid being the last out. We are fine right now.

AK
can you elaborate, Sir? thanks!