what % scares you when the public is on your betting side?

goldengoat · 12-07-06, 04:37 PM

this poll is at what point do you start to get nervous and not what % scares you the most

gummo · 12-07-06, 04:38 PM

70

goldengoat · 12-07-06, 04:38 PM

haha mods kill this thread

there is another one that is a poll

Dark Horse · 12-07-06, 04:39 PM

I really don't give a damn. The public can be right.

Only time I pay attention is when most action is on one side, and the line moves the other way.

Bill Dozer · 12-07-06, 05:32 PM

The public did pretty well in 05. It's nice to be on the same side when you have -1 and they have -3.

bigboydan · 12-07-06, 05:45 PM

Anything over 70% scares me a bit.

You have to remember though, just because a team is at a 70%+ clip doesn't mean it is all square action.With that being said, I don't feel we can look at those consenus numbers and just come to that conclusion.

Willie Bee · 12-07-06, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by BBD

You have to remember though, just because a team is at a 70%+ clip is all square action.With that being said, I don't feel we can look at those consenus numbers and just come to that conclusion.

I'm going to have to run that through a translator somewhere.

The only percent that scares me is when JJ's on my side

onlooker · 12-08-06, 01:05 AM

I said 70%-75%. When 3/4's of the public is on your side, its makes me a little nervous at times. But like Dan said, its not always all public action.

Illusion · 12-09-06, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

The only percent that scares me is when JJ's on my side

I'm not gonna touch that one.

I start getting nervous when the percentage hits the very high sixties.

Ganchrow · 12-09-06, 05:44 PM

Just to be clear:

"Balanced action" doesn't necessarily mean equal dollar volume risked on either side of a particular bet. Rather it refers to a situation where the book can expect equal profit regardless of the outcome of the underlying event. (In fact, it would only be in the case of a balanced (e.g. -110/-110) market that balanced would imply a 50/50 public money split).

Given a market of let's say -225/+200, balanced action would imply fully 67.5% of public money wagered on the favorite. Indeed, were a book that specifically sought balanced action to notice substantially less than 67.5% of public money wagered on the favorite, the book would be wise to decrease the magnitude line in order to discourage further money on the underdog.

This in no way speaks to the public's supposed preference for favorite, but rather is simply the mathematical result of sportsbooks attempting to smooth out their expectations.