Hypothetical NBA Betting Question

funnyb25 · 05-06-17, 03:10 PM

If I had Warriors I would let it ride...If I had Jazz, I would shoot myself...

BOL

arie1985 · 05-06-17, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by funnyb25

If I had Warriors I would let it ride...If I had Jazz, I would shoot myself...

BOL

Yes but I don't like to bet pre-game, so I'm asking if you had an option to place your very first bet on this game in live would you do it based on the concept of "Buy low sell high" or this is useless?

Btw Game 2 screwed so many bettors who placed pre-game bets around the spread of 13 points (some accused the last play by Green for being shady aka "NBA is rigged"), whilst you could have avoided going into this by picking a spread of 20 points in live, so why not do it if you get better price in live?

funnyb25 · 05-06-17, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Yes but I don't like to bet pre-game, so I'm asking if you had an option to place your very first bet on this game in live would you do it based on the concept of "Buy low sell high" or this is useless?

Btw Game 2 screwed so many bettors who placed pre-game bets around the spread of 13 points (some accused the last play by Green for being shady aka "NBA is rigged"), whilst you could have avoided going into this by picking a spread of 20 points in live, so why not do it if you get better price in live?

Great points...I think the Jazz might win this game outright...I don;t believe they get swept....So they will come out firing IMO...Only value live would be on warriors IMO...Might get them near even

TheMoneyShot · 05-06-17, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Game 3 between Golden State and Utah opens with the following lines:
Spread: GS -6.5 (or UT +6.5)
Total: 207.5

What would you do if at half time you get the following lines in live?

Spread: GS -10.5
Total: 195.5

Would you bet in that case on UT +10.5 or Over 195.5 because of "buy low sell high" or would you avoid doing it because it's not worth it?

Are we saying hypothetical on your opening lines also with your equation?

Because your opening lines are off. The public has moved them.

G.S. -5 was the opening line
O/U 209

You would take Utah +10.5 because there's more value with them at Home... they hardly lose by double digits.

The total I leave alone... it's the NBA... you could have a 75 point half... or a 122 point half easily. Never really a value on Totals.

arie1985 · 05-06-17, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

Are we saying hypothetical on your opening lines also with your equation?

Because your opening lines are off. The public has moved them.

G.S. -5 was the opening line
O/U 209

You would take Utah +10.5 because there's more value with them at Home... they hardly lose by double digits.

The total I leave alone... it's the NBA... you could have a 75 point half... or a 122 point half easily. Never really a value on Totals.

Thanks for your insight.
I'm wondering if anyone has considered buying low and selling high - for instance Game 2 at the end of the 3rd quarter had a total line of 227.5 points - they ended up scoring only 219 so anyone who has taken that "Under" would have cashed.... on the same time a similar pattern with Cavs-Raptors led to a loss (they scored over 222 points - 3rd quarter line - but their initial line was 215 and GS-UT's 205 so there is a bigger difference) so is there any value in buying low and selling high at all?

TheMoneyShot · 05-06-17, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Thanks for your insight.
I'm wondering if anyone has considered buying low and selling high - for instance Game 2 at the end of the 3rd quarter had a total line of 227.5 points - they ended up scoring only 219 so anyone who has taken that "Under" would have cashed.... on the same time a similar pattern with Cavs-Raptors led to a loss (they scored 230+ points) so is there any value in buying low and selling high at all?

There are many styles to capping a game. Some use strict logic... and no feeling (vibe.) Some use 100% feeling... with no significant logic. And some try to weigh both feeling and logic side by side.

It's up to you to figure out what you're good at. If you love studying past playoff games... totals... numbers... and you believe you have keen insight... then hats off to you. Give your hypothesis a shot and let it rip when placing a wager.

2 Reasons why people lose at gambling....

1. Poor money management. Not assessing the proper strategy and wager amounts.

2. Misreads. System not working.

BuckyOne · 05-06-17, 10:39 PM

You still have to have the ability to make your own line at halftime. You need information from your data base - playoffs - Home team +6 1/2 and the score is X at half time (I did not see where you mentioned the actual score at halftime) Then give me 100 results and let's find an average performance. Was +10 1/2 a good line or how many wins and how many losses?

But, there are so many variables like need to win and some teams are better at home than others. So, it is really hard to get scientifically accurate. If this is a tie game at halftime - the +10 1/2 sounds like a good play to me. I guess - you are maybe saying - 100 times the home team is + 10 1/2 at halftime in the playoffs - is that a good play?

Waterstpub87 · 05-06-17, 11:38 PM

You aren't buying low. The situation has changed:

Imagine that the -6.5 close pregame is the best estimate of the final score prior to tip off. Once the game has tipped off, the -6.5 is meaningless. You have an anchoring bias, where that was the fair price in your mind, and now that it is cheaper/more expensive, you think it is a better deal.

For the total, using your example of 207.5 equates to roughly 4.32 points per minute or so (ignoring foul shots at the end if the game is close, starters sitting later, ect. ect.). If five minutes have passes with no score, the fair value is now 207.5 -21.6, or 186. Betting the over has no value just because it is less than 207.5.

juicername · 05-07-17, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

You aren't buying low. The situation has changed:

Imagine that the -6.5 close pregame is the best estimate of the final score prior to tip off. Once the game has tipped off, the -6.5 is meaningless. You have an anchoring bias, where that was the fair price in your mind, and now that it is cheaper/more expensive, you think it is a better deal.

For the total, using your example of 207.5 equates to roughly 4.32 points per minute or so (ignoring foul shots at the end if the game is close, starters sitting later, ect. ect.). If five minutes have passes with no score, the fair value is now 207.5 -21.6, or 186. Betting the over has no value just because it is less than 207.5.

I kind of agree with this post, but at the same time; yes, the situation has changed, but I usually assume that situations like "five minutes have passes with no score" are accounted for in the pre-game numbers.

At the end of the day, you can catch some good numbers live-betting, but you need to know the teams and even more importantly (for NBA at least) the schedule.

I made large live-bets on Utah/GS (+17.5 & +19.5 in Game 2 of the series. Utah was never gonna lay down and die but GS had very little motivation to do more than keep Utah at a reasonable distance. That's the kind of spots I look for with live-betting. Another one is a favorite that needs a win losing early in the game moving the spread. Usually a cash cow, like Boston in Game 2 of their series against Washington.

arie1985 · 05-07-17, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

You aren't buying low. The situation has changed:

Imagine that the -6.5 close pregame is the best estimate of the final score prior to tip off. Once the game has tipped off, the -6.5 is meaningless. You have an anchoring bias, where that was the fair price in your mind, and now that it is cheaper/more expensive, you think it is a better deal.

For the total, using your example of 207.5 equates to roughly 4.32 points per minute or so (ignoring foul shots at the end if the game is close, starters sitting later, ect. ect.). If five minutes have passes with no score, the fair value is now 207.5 -21.6, or 186. Betting the over has no value just because it is less than 207.5.

Well, the total was 188.5 with 6-7 minutes remaining in the 4th ... it's almost 20 points less than the original line, and those who took the "Over" there cashed ... I wouldn't say the original lines are truly meaningless - for Game 2 the spread of 13 was important from start until the end - and there are so many arguments about the last play such as:

https://twitter.com/TheCousinSal/status/860362383469891584

Bettors who took the spread either at 20 (for Utah) or 4 (for GS) didn't have to bother with the 11-13 points "hovering" at the end of the game.

So there is a value to buy low sell high ... not saying NBA games never ended with 50 points below the line but the 227.5 under, the 188.5 over, the 225.5 under with Hou/SA and so forth - are all good examples of "buy low sell high" that has worked.