LeBron James leads Cavaliers against Magic
On paper the matchup to determine the true Beasts of the East for this season appears to be nothing more than a slam dunk for Cleveland. After breezing through the season with the best record in the NBA, LeBron James and the Cavaliers have blown through the playoffs with a pair of 4-game sweeps. Now it's up to Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic to try and stop the steamroller that is the Cavs.
Should we give the Cleveland Cavaliers the Eastern Conference title right now, or should we go ahead and play the scheduled games between the Cavs and the Orlando Magic?
The betting odds say it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that Cleveland is going to book a spot in the NBA Finals. The Cavs were available between -670 and -800 to beat Orlando in the best-of-seven Eastern final; that looks like a bargain compared to the -500 you have to pay to take Cleveland on the moneyline in Wednesday’s opener (8:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT). Market reports at press time had the public preferring Orlando (+400) instead at a 2:1 ratio.
As far as the pointspread is concerned, this matchup is tilted in favor of the Cavaliers (see our Cavs-Magic series preview for more coverage). Cleveland is a 9-point chalk for Game 1 and drawing 70 percent of the action after starting the playoffs 7-0-1 ATS. Nine points are the most the Magic have gotten all season. They’re 15-6 ATS this year as the underdogs, but the Cavs are a very comfortable 16-5 ATS as a favorite of between seven and 9.5 points inclusive.
There are reasons to bet on Orlando besides being a Magic fan, like the value of taking them at +400 to win Game 1 instead of +545 to win the series. Wednesday night’s game also presents the all-important “rust” scenario, as Cleveland hasn’t played since May 11. The problem with that scenario is that Cleveland has yet to show any sign of rust. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS on three days of rest this year.
The Cavs have been profitable no matter how many days of rest they get between games, but as a defensive team, they perform with even more intensity when the tank is full. The under was 6-1 for Cleveland on three days of rest as opponents were held to 82.6 points per game. The Cavs had an entire eight days off before facing the Atlanta Hawks in the second round and creaming them 99-72 in their opener. Wednesday night’s total at The Q is a suitably low 184.5 points.
The advanced stat gurus at Basketball Prospectus have a theory: rest advantage is especially important going into the Conference finals. Kevin Pelton crunched the numbers and estimates that each game you avoid having to play in the previous two rounds is worth 0.4 wins once you get to the Final Four. Cleveland swept both its series, while Orlando was taken to six by Philadelphia and seven by Boston. My calculator watch says that’s five fewer games for the Cavs and a theoretical two-win advantage. Could this be their third sweep in a row?
Hopeful Orlando supporters will welcome the news that Courtney Lee is getting the start at shooting guard over J.J. Redick in Game 1. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy told the Orlando Sentinel about his decision after Tuesday’s practice. “For Delonte West, a guy who puts the ball on the floor more and attacks with the dribble, I think Courtney is the better matchup.” Lee was Orlando’s starting 2-guard until Dwight Howard accidentally elbowed him in the face during the first round series against Philadelphia.
The Magic have played their best basketball of the season with Lee on the court. Out of their three options at shooting guard, the rookie from Western Kentucky has the best plus-minus Roland Rating:
Courtney Lee minus-2.1
Mickael Pietrus minus-2.4
J.J. Redick minus-3.9
Although Redick had his moments defending Ray Allen during the Boston series, West’s offensive game isn’t limited to the perimeter, and Redick’s shooting touch deserted him against the Celtics. Lee is two inches taller at 6-foot-6 and a superior defender to Redick. Pietrus may be the best defender of the three and a viable challenge for LeBron James, but there are days where he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
The fact that Lee is recovered enough from sinus surgery to take his old job back gives Orlando some sorely needed betting value. Otherwise, it’s hard to build a case against Cleveland for Game 1.
On paper the matchup to determine the true Beasts of the East for this season appears to be nothing more than a slam dunk for Cleveland. After breezing through the season with the best record in the NBA, LeBron James and the Cavaliers have blown through the playoffs with a pair of 4-game sweeps. Now it's up to Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic to try and stop the steamroller that is the Cavs.
Should we give the Cleveland Cavaliers the Eastern Conference title right now, or should we go ahead and play the scheduled games between the Cavs and the Orlando Magic?
The betting odds say it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that Cleveland is going to book a spot in the NBA Finals. The Cavs were available between -670 and -800 to beat Orlando in the best-of-seven Eastern final; that looks like a bargain compared to the -500 you have to pay to take Cleveland on the moneyline in Wednesday’s opener (8:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT). Market reports at press time had the public preferring Orlando (+400) instead at a 2:1 ratio.
As far as the pointspread is concerned, this matchup is tilted in favor of the Cavaliers (see our Cavs-Magic series preview for more coverage). Cleveland is a 9-point chalk for Game 1 and drawing 70 percent of the action after starting the playoffs 7-0-1 ATS. Nine points are the most the Magic have gotten all season. They’re 15-6 ATS this year as the underdogs, but the Cavs are a very comfortable 16-5 ATS as a favorite of between seven and 9.5 points inclusive.
There are reasons to bet on Orlando besides being a Magic fan, like the value of taking them at +400 to win Game 1 instead of +545 to win the series. Wednesday night’s game also presents the all-important “rust” scenario, as Cleveland hasn’t played since May 11. The problem with that scenario is that Cleveland has yet to show any sign of rust. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS on three days of rest this year.
The Cavs have been profitable no matter how many days of rest they get between games, but as a defensive team, they perform with even more intensity when the tank is full. The under was 6-1 for Cleveland on three days of rest as opponents were held to 82.6 points per game. The Cavs had an entire eight days off before facing the Atlanta Hawks in the second round and creaming them 99-72 in their opener. Wednesday night’s total at The Q is a suitably low 184.5 points.
The advanced stat gurus at Basketball Prospectus have a theory: rest advantage is especially important going into the Conference finals. Kevin Pelton crunched the numbers and estimates that each game you avoid having to play in the previous two rounds is worth 0.4 wins once you get to the Final Four. Cleveland swept both its series, while Orlando was taken to six by Philadelphia and seven by Boston. My calculator watch says that’s five fewer games for the Cavs and a theoretical two-win advantage. Could this be their third sweep in a row?
Hopeful Orlando supporters will welcome the news that Courtney Lee is getting the start at shooting guard over J.J. Redick in Game 1. Magic coach Stan Van Gundy told the Orlando Sentinel about his decision after Tuesday’s practice. “For Delonte West, a guy who puts the ball on the floor more and attacks with the dribble, I think Courtney is the better matchup.” Lee was Orlando’s starting 2-guard until Dwight Howard accidentally elbowed him in the face during the first round series against Philadelphia.
The Magic have played their best basketball of the season with Lee on the court. Out of their three options at shooting guard, the rookie from Western Kentucky has the best plus-minus Roland Rating:
Courtney Lee minus-2.1
Mickael Pietrus minus-2.4
J.J. Redick minus-3.9
Although Redick had his moments defending Ray Allen during the Boston series, West’s offensive game isn’t limited to the perimeter, and Redick’s shooting touch deserted him against the Celtics. Lee is two inches taller at 6-foot-6 and a superior defender to Redick. Pietrus may be the best defender of the three and a viable challenge for LeBron James, but there are days where he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat.
The fact that Lee is recovered enough from sinus surgery to take his old job back gives Orlando some sorely needed betting value. Otherwise, it’s hard to build a case against Cleveland for Game 1.