Millionaire's Row Investment Fund (All plays posted inside)

[Fred The Hammer]

Last week, I finally didn't profit on NFL teasers. Think that will go back to normal this week. Here's my semi round robin this week


All teasers are $385 to win $350

Jacksonville +8 Teaser (Leg 1) and Indy +9 Teaser (-110)
New England -1 Teaser (Leg 1) and Atlanta +13 Teaser (-110)
New England -1 Teaser (Leg 1) and Indy +9 Teaser (-110)
Jacksonville +8.5 Teaser (Leg 1) and Atlanta +13 Teaser (-110)

Thought you liked Houston -3 vs the Colts? I'm in Indy and we usually roll in Houston but this team is a mess. Luck usually rallies though so the teaser may work out!

I took Jax +125 ML today with Hoyer Over 262.5 yards passing.....hopefully in comeback mode

[TPowell]

Thought you liked Houston -3 vs the Colts? I'm in Indy and we usually roll in Houston but this team is a mess. Luck usually rallies though so the teaser may work out!

I took Jax +125 ML today with Hoyer Over 262.5 yards passing.....hopefully in comeback mode

Not as confident the last couple days plus a good middle chance with having -3 and +9. Right now we are very close to where we finished last week ($1,200). I've got this week at a positive $1,032 as of now. I'm including Atlanta +13 as a win btw.

[JTrain]

Any leans on CFB opening lines?

[TPowell]

Any leans on CFB opening lines?

Just glancing now. After last 2 weeks, I'm not planning on pulling trigger early on much. I don't see much but just cherry picked games to do the numbers on. Boise State wouldn't be a bad play at less than -7 maybe? Not much on these early games as of yet for sure

[TPowell]

Last week, I finally didn't profit on NFL teasers. Think that will go back to normal this week. Here's my semi round robin this week


All teasers are $385 to win $350

Jacksonville +8 Teaser (Leg 1) and Indy +9 Teaser (-110)
New England -1 Teaser (Leg 1) and Atlanta +13 Teaser (-110)
New England -1 Teaser (Leg 1) and Indy +9 Teaser (-110)
Jacksonville +8.5 Teaser (Leg 1) and Atlanta +13 Teaser (-110)

All 4 teasers hit!

[TPowell]

Wrong #'s

[TPowell]

Initial Investment: $25,000
Current Stake: $28,279 (+$3,279)

Week 1: $1202 (1202/25000)= 4.8% return
Week 2: $2077 (2077/26202)= 7.9% return


NCAAF: 28-21-2 $4,140
MMA: 5-11 $-1980
NFL: 12-8-1 $520
Politics/Scalps: 2-3 +$599

[Ri¢h Bank$]

Initial Investment: $25,000
Current Stake: $28,279 (+$3,279)

Week 1: $1202 (1202/25000)= 4.8% return
Week 2: $2077 (2077/26202)= 7.9% return



NCAAF: 28-21-2 $4,140
MMA: 5-11 $-1980
NFL: 12-8-1 $520
Politics/Scalps: 2-3 +$599

Nice work TPowell !

[Ri¢h Bank$]

I am curious as to why you vary your bet amount. I thought part of the idea of bankroll management was to bet the same 3-5% on every play. You said $1250 on 25k BR. Please advise me if I'm mistaken? I am just curious, not here to troll by any means.

[TPowell]

I am curious as to why you vary your bet amount. I thought part of the idea of bankroll management was to bet the same 3-5% on every play. You said $1250 on 25k BR. Please advise me if I'm mistaken? I am just curious, not here to troll by any means.

Within reason, yes. I refuse to bet too flat because I do think I have more value in some games as opposed to others but just basing unit size off value is dangerous because anything can happen so you don't want to have 10-20% of your roll on a game no mattter what.

[TPowell]

First play of the week. Looking back at KState's year so far, outside of maybe the Stanford game, I haven't been impressed at all. That WV game shouldn't have been anywhere near that close. They averaged 1.6 yards less per play than WV and still only lost by 1. Should have been a 10 point defeat IMO.


Texas +3.5 (-110) $440 to win $400

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree that K-State has looked terrible this season but so has Texas. I will take a Snyder coached team over a Strong coached team any day. Texas is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 efforts in Manhattan. Both teams are about as phony as the ACC is.

[TPowell]

I agree that K-State has looked terrible this season but so has Texas. I will take a Snyder coached team over a Strong coached team any day. Texas is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 efforts in Manhattan. Both teams are about as phony as the ACC is.

Texas has had some decent efforts this year though. Their worst is much better than K State's worst

[Ri¢h Bank$]

Within reason, yes. I refuse to bet too flat because I do think I have more value in some games as opposed to others but just basing unit size off value is dangerous because anything can happen so you don't want to have 10-20% of your roll on a game no mattter what.

Right. I'm just trying to figure out how to safely tail to the million!

[TPowell]

Right. I'm just trying to figure out how to safely tail to the million!

Just imagine my unit size as $250, so when you see a $500 bet you know its a 2 unit play and so on. Your unit can be anything you want it to be, just make sure that you get the right unit amounts

[Sledge187]

Great thread!

[KANSAS24]

First play of the week. Looking back at KState's year so far, outside of maybe the Stanford game, I haven't been impressed at all. That WV game shouldn't have been anywhere near that close. They averaged 1.6 yards less per play than WV and still only lost by 1. Should have been a 10 point defeat IMO.


Texas +3.5 (-110) $440 to win $400

[TPowell]

Michigan State ML (-135) $540 to win $400


Everyone is down on MSU after last week's debacle but after looking back at the #'s, they averaged 1.6 more yards per play than NW and managed to get beat by 14 somehow. I'm okay with backing that performance again against a team that looked worse than awful last week at home against Minnesota. Minnesota isn't better than MSU on its best day and they had a pretty easy time of it against Maryland, outgaining them by a yard per play. Hills was declared out but so was Minny's QB. The backup for Maryland is a good runner but his passing is terrible. He averaged 4.4 YPA last week and Maryland's offense was basically him running the football (25 carries for 71 yards). MSU's defense will bounce back here IF Hills doesn't start and this game will be a double digit blowout easily. Even if Hills plays, I think he'll be limited and MSU will be able to outscore them. I took -135 instead of -2.5 because I feel like if Hills is out, I could easily scalp out of this for a good profit at some point if I want instead of trying to middle.

[TPowell]

Michigan State ML (-135) $540 to win $400


Everyone is down on MSU after last week's debacle but after looking back at the #'s, they averaged 1.6 more yards per play than NW and managed to get beat by 14 somehow. I'm okay with backing that performance again against a team that looked worse than awful last week at home against Minnesota. Minnesota isn't better than MSU on its best day and they had a pretty easy time of it against Maryland, outgaining them by a yard per play. Hills was declared out but so was Minny's QB. The backup for Maryland is a good runner but his passing is terrible. He averaged 4.4 YPA last week and Maryland's offense was basically him running the football (25 carries for 71 yards). MSU's defense will bounce back here IF Hills doesn't start and this game will be a double digit blowout easily. Even if Hills plays, I think he'll be limited and MSU will be able to outscore them. I took -135 instead of -2.5 because I feel like if Hills is out, I could easily scalp out of this for a good profit at some point if I want instead of trying to middle.

Btw, this game was only on the board at 5Dimes so you'll have to check your site. Was NOT on Bovada or my other site

[TPowell]

Nevada +4.5 (-110) $330 to win $300


I get it, Wyoming looked really good the last 2 games off bye against Air Force and at Colorado State winning SU as underdogs but 2 good games don't make a team better than what they were before. Nevada got upset last year on the road by Wyoming as 7 point chalk. They're getting 4.5 AT HOME this season and I'm not supposed to take it?

[TPowell]

Straight from my official spreadsheet for Week 8 (all plays with no "()" are official plays)

South Alabama (try to get +10 if possible)

Boise State (only if line gets to -6 or better, check on C Hampton)

Cal (watch if line drops under 3 and if QB Webb will play)

Uconn (Line should drop more but +4 is enough)

Miami Ohio (Made game +1.5 so 4.5 would be good)

Texas

Boston College (get line at -4 or -4.5 and check C-Baker)

Appalachian State (get line at 21 or better and check injuries)

TCU (made line +2, would need +6 to play)

Illinois (made line +28, check status of QB's Lunt and Crouch)

Eastern Michigan (made line +17,would take +23)

Tulsa (made line -15, would like -10, check injuries)

Arkansas (made line +6, would have to have +10)

Oregon State (made line +30)

Texas State (made line +4, would have to have +7 to play)

Cincinnati (made line -11, would take -6 or better)

Mississippi State (made line -6, check injuries for MSU)

Michigan State ML

Nevada

[BigdaddyQH]

Nevada +4.5 (-110) $330 to win $300


I get it, Wyoming looked really good the last 2 games off bye against Air Force and at Colorado State winning SU as underdogs but 2 good games don't make a team better than what they were before. Nevada got upset last year on the road by Wyoming as 7 point chalk. They're getting 4.5 AT HOME this season and I'm not supposed to take it?

Absolutely. Nevada is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. They barely got past Fresno State who is by far the worst team in the MWC. Wyoming has won and covered their last two games. This the type of game that pays for the Neon Lights in Vegas.

[TPowell]

Absolutely. Nevada is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. They barely got past Fresno State who is by far the worst team in the MWC. Wyoming has won and covered their last two games. This the type of game that pays for the Neon Lights in Vegas.

I agree, the performance on the road at SJSU was pretty good IMO. They lost the game on a very late TD and outgained SJSU by 0.7 yards per play. They've certainly put on quite a few clunkers this season but Wyoming did get a +3 margin on TO's against AF last week. AF was the better team in that game by a decent margin and just got beat. The road win at CSU was very impressive though. They deserved that win

[BigdaddyQH]

Cal has dropped to -2 1/2 at some shops in Vegas and Hampton is not a conversation piece. Tough game because Cal's defense is as bad as Oregon's.

You can get Arkansas +10 in Vegas if you wager there. If you are one of these amateur off shore bettors, you probably still can find it depending on just how many books you have invested your money in.

Michigan State ML. Bad wager. Giving away money on a team that is 0-4 both S/U and ATS in their past 4 games against a team that is at home and needs two wins to go bowling. I agree that Michigan State has the better talent but I can not wager on a team that may have mailed it in against a team trying to go somewhere.

I have no idea where you dreamed up your Cincinnati line. Not even close.

The rest are garbage.

[TPowell]

Cal has dropped to -2 1/2 at some shops in Vegas and Hampton is not a conversation piece. Tough game because Cal's defense is as bad as Oregon's.

You can get Arkansas +10 in Vegas if you wager there. If you are one of these amateur off shore bettors, you probably still can find it depending on just how many books you have invested your money in.

Michigan State ML. Bad wager. Giving away money on a team that is 0-4 both S/U and ATS in their past 4 games against a team that is at home and needs two wins to go bowling. I agree that Michigan State has the better talent but I can not wager on a team that may have mailed it in against a team trying to go somewhere.

I have no idea where you dreamed up your Cincinnati line. Not even close.

The rest are garbage.

Hard for me to pick what I want to pick apart and what I want to laugh at in this post. Guess I'll start with the fact that you don't want to bet on a team that has "mailed it in" but you don't seem to wanna fade Oregon. Amateur off-shore bettors lol? YOUR Vegas lines are just puppet lines. Yeah, Cincy is an outlandish claim, we'll see what happens though. You must be a real pro if you can tell 15+ leans on Tuesday are garbage

[unde0087]

Powell, the guy is a clown. Every time I see this guy in any contest he is in the basement but likes to act like he knows everything about everything

[TPowell]

Cal has dropped to -2 1/2 at some shops in Vegas and Hampton is not a conversation piece. Tough game because Cal's defense is as bad as Oregon's.

You can get Arkansas +10 in Vegas if you wager there. If you are one of these amateur off shore bettors, you probably still can find it depending on just how many books you have invested your money in.

Michigan State ML. Bad wager. Giving away money on a team that is 0-4 both S/U and ATS in their past 4 games against a team that is at home and needs two wins to go bowling. I agree that Michigan State has the better talent but I can not wager on a team that may have mailed it in against a team trying to go somewhere.

I have no idea where you dreamed up your Cincinnati line. Not even close.

The rest are garbage.

Lastly, I do use an amateur off shore book and I get -105 lines on gamedays, hence why I like to try and wait until then if possible. Trying to stick to that more this week

[Husker36]

Hard for me to pick what I want to pick apart and what I want to laugh at in this post. Guess I'll start with the fact that you don't want to bet on a team that has "mailed it in" but you don't seem to wanna fade Oregon. Amateur off-shore bettors lol? YOUR Vegas lines are just puppet lines. Yeah, Cincy is an outlandish claim, we'll see what happens though. You must be a real pro if you can tell 15+ leans on Tuesday are garbage

Bigdaddy only bets ML favorites of -400+ and is currently losing in his thread.... so I wouldn't take ANY advice from him.

[grease lightnin]

Bigdaddy only bets ML favorites of -400+ and is currently losing in his thread.... so I wouldn't take ANY advice from him.

You forgot to mention it is ROAD faves of -400 or more. Lol

[unde0087]

You forgot to mention it is ROAD faves of -400 or more. Lol

[TPowell]

Lol so this guy lays -400 and is complaining about -135?

[unde0087]

Lol so this guy lays -400 and is complaining about -135?

Powell, don't waste your time with that guy, he is a fukin fraud

[TPowell]

402309109-1	10/19/16 1:44am	$135.00	$100.00	Pending	10/19/16 9:00pm Politics Other Sports 517 Either candidate says: "Deplorable" -135* vs Neither candidate says: "Deplorable"
402309109-2	10/19/16 1:44am	$110.00	$100.00	Pending	10/19/16 9:00pm Politics Other Sports 609 Either candidate says: "Tweet" -110* vs Neither candidate says: "Tweet"
402309109-3	10/19/16 1:44am	$100.00	$105.00	Pending	10/19/16 9:00pm Politics Other Sports 611 Either candidate says: "Twitter" +105* vs Neither candidate says: "Twitter"

[TPowell]

Deplorable has moved the other way to leaning towards NOT, but tweet and twitter are -260 and -195 apiece

[TPowell]

401404024-1	10/14/16 11:32pm	$270.00	$394.27	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	11/12/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Conor McGregor -150* vs Eddie Alvarez
				Pending	11/8/16 8:00am Politics Other Sports 292 Democratic nominee wins under 369½ votes -210* vs Democratic nominee wins over 369½ votes

I posted a thread about the UNDER 369.5 a while back and forgot to post this. Feel good about both plays