Guys, can USC upset Alabama?

[The Giant]

I know a lot of you dedicate your lives to breaking down these early-season matchups, feeling you have an edge over the oddsmakers.

I applaud all the hard work you put in.

Tell me if you see anything here.

[daneblazer]

Alabama is all about next man up, but they've lost so much. Not just in players but in coaches. I'm not planning on betting the game but if I had to choose a side id probably take USC +points

[Seaweed]

Most likely maybe

[Sam Odom]

yes

[CWD]

+10 all day

sprinkle ML

[jjgold]

38-20 Bama

[ChuckyTheGoat]

38-20 Bama

Trojans it is!

[blackHIPPY]

espn was sure hypin em up earlier

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Uh...no.

[unde0087]

USC isn't deep but has starters that are very capable. I would imagine they would need a quick start and hope fatigue doesn't cost them in the end.

[KVB]

espn was sure hypin em up earlier

I've been looking at the market as a whole and with some tough matchups for high profile teams it seems there may be a tendency for losing bettors to pick upsets as the rotation advances through the weekend, creating a nice chase for a large group of bettors.

Some issues are about one team succeeding, some are more about one team failing or letting down. This game depends on whether the "upset" PREDICTION is founded in a USC success or more of an Alabama failure.

If the notion of the upset comes as USC being successful and you see media hype on USC, the chances of a USC outright upset decreases significantly.

On the other hand, if you are expecting an upset to be more of an Alabama let down, there may be a solid underdog bet.

If you can figure out the prevailing mentality for an upset bet and then quantify the media "hype" my assertion about the chances of this game can be backed with evidence.

The problem is that it is week one and it is difficult to assess who is in a position to "let down" their bettors and who is in a position to be a success. We need to see the flow of money.

The good news is that it is a 5:00 game and there will be plenty of market evidence to at least make a probabilistic decision.

One last thing, it isn't as difficult as it may seem to at least lightly quantify the media hype. There are very few news originators in the world and most outlets simple repeat one of those sources for all news, including sports. We also have things like rankings that contribute to the hype. Once you get a few factors down and some experience, it can be done.

Many of you already do this based on feel and what you've seen, it can be very subjective. You can tell when the media is all over one team or not. I encourage you quantify what you are witnessing, or at least keep notes for the future. I say this for a couple of reasons. One is my often repeated mantra of keeping track of your bets and why you made them. The other is that eventually your notes will need to be organized as even one season's worth of information can be overwhelming.

Good Luck, The Giant.

[vividjohn45]

Most likely maybe

Seeweed debating on getting out of the closet.

[VeggieDog]

Trojan fan, so I won't put money on them, but I think they will win.

[sweethook]

4 hell marys . . .yes

[The Giant]

I've been looking at the market as a whole and with some tough matchups for high profile teams it seems there may be a tendency for losing bettors to pick upsets as the rotation advances through the weekend, creating a nice chase for a large group of bettors.

Some issues are about one team succeeding, some are more about one team failing or letting down. This game depends on whether the "upset" PREDICTION is founded in a USC success or more of an Alabama failure.

If the notion of the upset comes as USC being successful and you see media hype on USC, the chances of a USC outright upset decreases significantly.

On the other hand, if you are expecting an upset to be more of an Alabama let down, there may be a solid underdog bet.

If you can figure out the prevailing mentality for an upset bet and then quantify the media "hype" my assertion about the chances of this game can be backed with evidence.

The problem is that it is week one and it is difficult to assess who is in a position to "let down" their bettors and who is in a position to be a success. We need to see the flow of money.

The good news is that it is a 5:00 game and there will be plenty of market evidence to at least make a probabilistic decision.

One last thing, it isn't as difficult as it may seem to at least lightly quantify the media hype. There are very few news originators in the world and most outlets simple repeat one of those sources for all news, including sports. We also have things like rankings that contribute to the hype. Once you get a few factors down and some experience, it can be done.

Many of you already do this based on feel and what you've seen, it can be very subjective. You can tell when the media is all over one team or not. I encourage you quantify what you are witnessing, or at least keep notes for the future. I say this for a couple of reasons. One is my often repeated mantra of keeping track of your bets and why you made them. The other is that eventually your notes will need to be organized as even one season's worth of information can be overwhelming.

Good Luck, The Giant.

Could not have said it better myself.

[texhooper]

Could not have said it better myself.

He didn't say anything

[grease lightnin]

He didn't say anything

Posts are always 1000+ words and he never does.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

of course it is possible

Bama breaking in new QB, so I could see them being vulnerable early in the season

[jjgold]

USC has been overrated for a while now

How is the team rated this year?

[deltgen]

As far as wagering on one game, USC most certainly has more than a chance--this is USC, not one of the majority of Alabama's overrated fellow SEC opponents. As far as long term, national championship questions--does it matter for Alabama? Currently at #1, if they lose, they will drop to about #8, giving them plenty of time to make it to the top two by the end of the season (with ANOTHER loss even possible). If USC, currently #20 loses, they will not even be in the "others receiving votes" category, and eliminating their title hopes.

[klemopixx]

of course it is possible

Bama breaking in new QB, so I could see them being vulnerable early in the season

This is much more spot on than that 100+ word college thesis a few posts back. It all comes down to who plays QB for Bama and how well he does. If USC comes out and puts points on the board early then they have a real shot. Otherwise its Roll Tide all day long.

My educated guess Bama plays well enough to win but I doubt they cover.

[PorkChop]

No.

[jjgold]

Bama defense too good for a soft usc team

[itchypickle]

Would take a meltdown of epic proportion and some whacky plays. Aside from that.....zero chance.

Alabama has better coaching....not just Saban but assistants and let's be honest....Kiffin is gonna go off on his ole Southern Cal buddies.

Alabama has too many weapons. Center play is only concern so far. Robert Foster back to an already dangerous receiving corps with Ridley and Stewart and OJ Howard still TE threat. Depth on the defensive line yet again to rotate bodies and here is the hidden secret out of Tuscaloosa fall camp....the D has shrunk! Reuben Foster and others have dropped 15 pounds of mass for explosiveness and sideline to sideline play to keep up with the state of play on offenses. Secondary lost Cyrus Jones but still a ton of talent....yes there's been the Maurice Smith thing in the news but after Kendal Sheffield left last week as well it's obvious....former 5 stars can't get playing time back there behind Minka, Eddie and Marlon....that competitive.

USC does have a great O Line so it won't be a blowout but Bama takes the game over midway 3rd Qrtr and covers for Bama backers.

[BigdaddyQH]

Sure it is possible, but it is also not likely. USC's offense may be better than Alabama's, but USC has some major holes in their defense and Alabama's strong suit is their defense. Now as far as a wagering option is concerned, Alabama is -10 to-11 in Vegas. There is no way I give those kind of points to a team that may be able to control the ball on the ground and eat up a lot of clock. USC wants to run more and pass less. They have the offensive line and horses in the backfield to do just that. Enough to win outright? Doubtful. Enough to cover 11 points? I would not bet against that.

[jjgold]

nobody ever made money long term fading great teams in any sport

[reigle9]

For sure. USC is loaded, I have them +10' and 60/1 for the champ. Also a "neutral" field but will be mostly Bama.

Btw, I don't know literally anything about media hype. I'd rather blow my brains out while sucking dikk than watch sports talk tv.

[SharpAngles]

USC hasn't even named a starting QB and we're taking only 10 points here? Diehard Trojan fan here but this is not a good wager.

[reigle9]

of course it is possible

Bama breaking in new QB, so I could see them being vulnerable early in the season

A new QB that they're not even sure on yet.

[TheSideBet]

For sure. USC is loaded, I have them +10' and 60/1 for the champ. Also a "neutral" field but will be mostly Bama.

Btw, I don't know literally anything about media hype. I'd rather blow my brains out while sucking dikk than watch sports talk tv.

Utah wins that side of the conference this year, sleeper.

[reigle9]

I do like Utah as well. They're strong along both lines.

[RudyRuetigger]

fukkin pick a team and bet

fukkin not that hard pal

[funnyb25]

Will wait for week 3 to begin as always

[Memento]

41-14 Bama.....absolutely no chance.

[dmncnlou]

The 2 programs are on totally different levels. You're basically asking can Marvin Lewis and the Bengals beat the Patriots in a playoff game.