Middling NFL Totals?

[gregmav1]

I probably just stupidly, but as a little fun experiment, laid money on Under 56 -210 and Over 46 -210 on tonight's game. If I put down $100 on each, the most I'm losing is about $50, while potentially making $100 if it does end up middling. And I feel like there's more than a 50% chance of that, probably 55-60%.

I think NFL is by far the sport that Vegas is sharpest at - it's bet the most, there's many many stats, and they just seem to NAIL the over/under and spread the majority of the time. If they set the total at 51.5 like tonight, I feel like 75% the time that total will not be more than a touchdown off. I'm sure like all betting systems/schemes, this is a long-term losing idea. But if a total is set at 51.5 for NFL, I bet it winds up right around there moreso than most sports.

Stupid idea? Probably, but whatever. Small risk, medium reward.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

good source for frequency of totals--there a lot of dead numbers that move easily and aren't likely to help you.

http://cleanuphitter.com/nfl/stats/nfl_common_scores.php

[gregmav1]

good source for frequency of totals--there a lot of dead numbers that move easily and aren't likely to help you.

http://cleanuphitter.com/nfl/stats/n...mon_scores.php

Yeah but this is acting as if all games are the played by the same two teams, which is absurd. Eagles and Broncos playing is a different sport than Bills Browns.

[slacker00]

good source for frequency of totals--there a lot of dead numbers that move easily and aren't likely to help you.

http://cleanuphitter.com/nfl/stats/n...mon_scores.php

I'm very familiar with the number frequencies. But, with the new XP rule, don't they go out the window?

To the OP, I applaud your creative approach. For this game total, I'm looking at the weather more than anything.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Right, but you can identify ranges and see whether it's worth trying to middle--I think you lose out way more than you hit. How many totals move past several key numbers from the original total, to even present a reasonable opportunity? Middling is best for spreads.

[gregmav1]

I'm very familiar with the number frequencies. But, with the new XP rule, don't they go out the window?

To the OP, I applaud your creative approach. For this game total, I'm looking at the weather more than anything.

Do you think they will go for 2 that much more though? It will definitely be more than before, but I think it will still be around 85-90% XPs.

Thinking the potential for rain makes it go a little under? As long as it reaches 47 I'll be happy

And thanks. Just going to try it for a few and see how it works. Going to come up with a score in my head for what I think the total will be, and if the Vegas total is around there, may employ this approach.

[gregmav1]

Right, but you can identify ranges and see whether it's worth trying to middle--I think you lose out way more than you hit. How many totals move past several key numbers from the original total, to even present a reasonable opportunity? Middling is best for spreads.

I think you're right that middling is better for spreads overall than totals. Maybe I should do those in the future, just whenever I pictured the final of this game in my head, I kept seeing scores of like 27-21, 31-20, 30-24... right in that middling range. I think it has a great chance to hit.

Your key numbers point is well-taken, but I don't know I feel like with my range of 46-56, numbers like 48 and 49, 52 and 54 are all pretty common total numbers.

[slacker00]

Right, but you can identify ranges and see whether it's worth trying to middle--I think you lose out way more than you hit. How many totals move past several key numbers from the original total, to even present a reasonable opportunity? Middling is best for spreads.

My point is that they key numbers aren't key anymore if the new XP rule has a big impact.



See how a push on 46 is half as likely as 45 or 47. If the XP has much of an impact, this will totally change.

[gregmav1]

And again, it is pretty small risk here. I lose half a unit/bet at worst, with the potential to win a full one. Basically do I think there's more than a 50% chance that it lands between 46-56, rather than any other score, at the o/u of 51.5? And I do think that. I think it lands right around those scores I was saying early. Like I was saying, Vegas nails totals and spreads in the NFL. It may be a shootout and be 37-31, but I don't see it.

In the future I may try to do spreads more often than totals, depending on how a few of these experiments work out.

[slacker00]

Do you think they will go for 2 that much more though? It will definitely be more than before, but I think it will still be around 85-90% XPs.

Thinking the potential for rain makes it go a little under? As long as it reaches 47 I'll be happy

And thanks. Just going to try it for a few and see how it works. Going to come up with a score in my head for what I think the total will be, and if the Vegas total is around there, may employ this approach.

I'm thinking more about XP misses. In preseason they were only hitting 93%, it'll only get worse in bad weather.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Totals will still be key. Yes, XP are no longer automatic, but they are still going to score at a damn high rate.

"Last year, kickers hit 97 percent of their field goals from this distance" (link to Boston Globe article).

[jjgold]

have to play a lot of them to have shot

[CubsFan1908]

And again, it is pretty small risk here. I lose half a unit/bet at worst, with the potential to win a full one. Basically do I think there's more than a 50% chance that it lands between 46-56, rather than any other score, at the o/u of 51.5? And I do think that. I think it lands right around those scores I was saying early. Like I was saying, Vegas nails totals and spreads in the NFL. It may be a shootout and be 37-31, but I don't see it.

In the future I may try to do spreads more often than totals, depending on how a few of these experiments work out.

Truly you have to hit more than 33% to make a profit. Not 50%. Because winning 1 of 3 is breaking even.
If you were to run it 3 times:
Win Both +1 unit
Not win both -.5
Not win both -.5

Those are the odds for -200 not -210 though.

[CubsFan1908]

Also you'd have to factor in say you hit directly on a number. 46. You'd win the under and have no action on the over. So you'd profit .5 units

[High3rEl3m3nt]

SBR has a handful of betting tools that are useful, including this one that can convert odds into implied probability %

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

[SharpAngles]

These ideas always look good on paper but end up breaking even at best because the books know every trick! It's not a coincidence those odds are both at -210.

Stick to picking winners and your BR will grow.

[gregmav1]

Truly you have to hit more than 33% to make a profit. Not 50%. Because winning 1 of 3 is breaking even.
If you were to run it 3 times:
Win Both +1 unit
Not win both -.5
Not win both -.5

Those are the odds for -200 not -210 though.

Yeah true, loss of 50 / win of 100... 33% growth. Idk, it seems very possible, even slightly probable, that 33% of games are within 6 points either way of the total, that doesn't seem crazy to me.

And SharpAngles I know, these won't be my main bets or anything, picking winners is still the main bankroll use! But I might do one or two of these every Sunday that I feel are right on the nose for the total. If they fail after 2 or 3 weeks, experiment over with a minimal loss.

[CubsFan1908]

I'd recommend back testing every total the last x amount of years and see how many fall within 5. And if you can get a percantage that would be profitable (with a couple percentage points to spare) you might have something. Because it wouldn't be as simple as "this line looks accurate" because if you can tell which lines look innaccurate you would just bet on those and make a killing.

[Patrick McIrish]

If I did this I'd stick to games with lower totals. If a total is 38 you'd get 32- and 43-, probably higher frequency than games set in the 50's and you're hitting some key #'s that way.

Good luck.

[RonPaul2008]

21 cents per side, holy juice batman, there's no way that is +ev.

[the APPARITION]

21 cents per side, holy juice batman, there's no way that is +ev.

AGREED
win or lose, this is a SUPER LOSER approach

[gregmav1]

AGREED
win or lose, this is a SUPER LOSER approach

I hate when people say things like this. It's the most inherently idiotic thing one can say. "Win or lose.... you lose" makes 0 sense. I'm not saying it's a fantastic betting approach. But, if it wins, it wins. And that's all a sports gambler cares about, a winning day.
Don't say retarded shit like this.

Also whoever said "if you think the line is right on the money, then just bet it", that's my point, how? If I think what their total is set is right where the game will fall, how do I bet that? That's why I'm doing this middling approach tonight.

And patrick, I was thinking the same thing except I bet the lines get a lot higher for those. If a total is set to 39, moving it down to 34 and up to 44 would probably be more like -235 rather than -210 like for this one.

[gregmav1]

All in all I think this will be a fun strategy to root for, at least for a few games. Not necessarily rooting for low points or high points, just for the game to fall in a range, and I bet 75% of the time it will come down to the last 5 minutes of the game which will make it very fun.

[GunShard]

This bet could work but just don't bet it all the time.

[Patrick McIrish]

And patrick, I was thinking the same thing except I bet the lines get a lot higher for those. If a total is set to 39, moving it down to 34 and up to 44 would probably be more like -235 rather than -210 like for this one.

Oh okay, definitely don't want to pay more juice.

I never tried this but give you props for thinking outside the box.

This may not work but the next one might.....

Good luck brother.

[gregmav1]

This bet could work but just don't bet it all the time.

Yeah for sure... I'm only doing half a unit on each bet, so a unit bet total, to win basically a unit, or lose half a unit. I'm alright with the odds we've predicted, need about a 35% win rate, I think it's possible. Just gonna take it for a spin and see how it works out.

Thanks patrick. Definitely going to do at least 3, if I win none then I'll scrap it. Gotta find the lines and games I like.

[slacker00]

I'd recommend back testing every total the last x amount of years and see how many fall within 5. And if you can get a percantage that would be profitable (with a couple percentage points to spare) you might have something. Because it wouldn't be as simple as "this line looks accurate" because if you can tell which lines look innaccurate you would just bet on those and make a killing.

I did a quick study going back 10 years on his scenario teasing 5 both ways from 51.

26 times it went under 46, 26 times it went over 56 and 26 times it hit the middle(4 of those pushes on 56).

So, that's not quite 33% due to the 4 pushes. I could go back another 10 years, but I think it'll be the same trend.

[gregmav1]

I did a quick study going back 10 years on his scenario teasing 5 both ways from 51.

26 times it went under 46, 26 times it went over 56 and 26 times it hit the middle(4 of those pushes on 56).

So, that's not quite 33% due to the 4 pushes. I could go back another 10 years, but I think it'll be the same trend.

Wow thanks for doing that, nice. And yeah, about what we expected.

The stupid gambler wants me to say that hopefully my outcome will be different because I'm not just picking every 51 total game, I'm looking at games where I really have a feeling for the type of scoring the game will have, and picking the totals I want to try and middle. I guess that's just what sports gambling is, as usual. Let's go 27-24!

And I would say that a push counts as.. like 75% as a win. You get to win one bet and push the other, so you profit half a unit, as opposed to a full-on push.

[jjgold]

I would think 98% of people that bet middles come out in the red


It's just luck of the draw how a game ends

[lakerboy]

[gregmav1]

Hahahahahaha, the garbage time backdoor cover! Lands right in that area at 28-21 like I predicted. The king wins! 46-56 range covers. Woo.

1-0

[NavsPicks]

Hahahahahaha, the garbage time backdoor cover! Lands right in that area at 28-21 like I predicted. The king wins! 46-56 range covers. Woo.

1-0

The king? Clown you lucky af .

[gregmav1]

The king? Clown you lucky af .

Did the king cash or did the king cash?

Real talk, I know it was lucky as fuc.k, but as I always say, there's the right bet and the bet that wins. I thought this was both, the right bet that was super unlucky until the very end and should have cashed but there was some awful shit to happen, and obviously in the end the right bet.

1-0! Can lose the next two plays and be about even, but hopefully pick out a few good ones this Sunday and keep going up.

[NavsPicks]

Did the king cash or did the king cash?

Real talk, I know it was lucky as fuc.k, but as I always say, there's the right bet and the bet that wins. I thought this was both, the right bet that was super unlucky until the very end and should have cashed but there was some awful shit to happen, and obviously in the end the right bet.

1-0! Can lose the next two plays and be about even, but hopefully pick out a few good ones this Sunday and keep going up.

The fact that you're calling yourself the king after a $100 win is hilarious.

[kidcudi92]

greg lets kill the king talk but good win, lets see how it goes after more than 1 game