The fact that Duke is an underdog tonight is a joke

[frogsrangers]

I keep hearing people say that the game in December doesn't matter and how much Wisconsin has improved since then... why don't we hear anything about how much Duke has improved? They are steamrolling through the tourney and Justice Winslow is playing better than anyone else, and Okafor is still a force.

Wisconsin won their Super Bowl against Kentucky and blew their load in that game. Tough to come back after an emotional game like that and give it your all again. Duke had a cakewalk against MSU and will be ready to go.

Duke will win this game, Coach K gets title #5... pretty much as close to an all-in play as you can get.

[Mr KLC]

I don't look at it as a joke. It is more like a gift.

[jjgold]

I took Wisky..why??

everyone else on them

[DavieVegas]

Fade the public

[The Giant]

The joke is that they're not a five-point dog.

Name recognition is the only reason they're not.

Wisconsin will win.

[greypimps]

Wisconsin easily.. Too many shooters

[gregmav1]

Went back and forth trying to compare the two teams for the past two days... Finally settled on one thing to distinguish the two... Both have had great tournament runs. Both have beaten great teams on the way here.

3 weeks ago Wisconsin played Michigan State on a neutral court and tied in regulation and won the game in OT. Duke played Michigan State on a neutral court two days ago and blew them out by 20. That's the distinguishing factor for me. Only mutual opponent and Duke was vastly superior. Duke ML it is.

[shhhcago]

Duke by double digits and I hate Duke

[BIGDAY]

Frank the Tank might curb stomp Duke.

[jtoler]

Went back and forth trying to compare the two teams for the past two days... Finally settled on one thing to distinguish the two... Both have had great tournament runs. Both have beaten great teams on the way here.

3 weeks ago Wisconsin played Michigan State on a neutral court and tied in regulation and won the game in OT. Duke played Michigan State on a neutral court two days ago and blew them out by 20. That's the distinguishing factor for me. Only mutual opponent and Duke was vastly superior. Duke ML it is.

Hate to tell ya but that means nothing regardless who wins.

[jtoler]

The joke is that they're not a five-point dog.

Name recognition is the only reason they're not.

Wisconsin will win.

Name recognition and not ratings? Hmm.

[Jeffie]

I'm still trying to figure out who the refs will be on. Might just live bet the game instead.

[gregmav1]

Hate to tell ya but that means nothing regardless who wins.

Why would you say it means nothing? I can never fathom when someone thinks that a piece of information has no bearing on either team. This isn't "Duke is 5-1 on Mondays and Michigan State is 3-3" or some random thing. This is useful information. In NCAAB where teams rarely play each other or have common opponents, and they both played someone in the last 2 weeks, that's INCREDIBLY helpful.

[RavensFan2k3]

I keep hearing people say that the game in December doesn't matter and how much Wisconsin has improved since then... why don't we hear anything about how much Duke has improved? They are steamrolling through the tourney and Justice Winslow is playing better than anyone else, and Okafor is still a force.

Wisconsin won their Super Bowl against Kentucky and blew their load in that game. Tough to come back after an emotional game like that and give it your all again. Duke had a cakewalk against MSU and will be ready to go.

Duke will win this game, Coach K gets title #5... pretty much as close to an all-in play as you can get.

Yeah Wisconsin blew their load in a game they lead for a majority of in the semi finals smh

[RavensFan2k3]

Went back and forth trying to compare the two teams for the past two days... Finally settled on one thing to distinguish the two... Both have had great tournament runs. Both have beaten great teams on the way here.

3 weeks ago Wisconsin played Michigan State on a neutral court and tied in regulation and won the game in OT. Duke played Michigan State on a neutral court two days ago and blew them out by 20. That's the distinguishing factor for me. Only mutual opponent and Duke was vastly superior. Duke ML it is.

Lol you cannot be serious

[packerd_00]

Kaminsky is such a force,that dude is going to get his points.

[gregmav1]

Lol you cannot be serious

"Lol" yes i am. I'd love to hear your reasoning for why that information is useless or is wrong. I'm honestly asking you to explain why you think it has no bearing in trying to handicap the game. If you have some better info I'd love to hear it.

[jtoler]

Why would you say it means nothing? I can never fathom when someone thinks that a piece of information has no bearing on either team. This isn't "Duke is 5-1 on Mondays and Michigan State is 3-3" or some random thing. This is useful information. In NCAAB where teams rarely play each other or have common opponents, and they both played someone in the last 2 weeks, that's INCREDIBLY helpful.

For one State was coming off a hard fought OT game against Louisville, two Duke is just a bad matchup for State, three because one team wins by 20 on a neutral court and the other team beats them in OT has nothing to do with the two teams playing tonight which will be based on how they matchup.

[gregmav1]

For one State was coming off a hard fought OT game against Louisville, two Duke is just a bad matchup for State, three because one team wins by 20 on a neutral court and the other team beats them in OT has nothing to do with the two teams playing tonight which will be based on how they matchup.

Everyone LOVES talking about matchups, when honestly no one knows what that means. Kaminsky and Okafor will be a great battle, but it's not like the way Michigan State plays was a bad matchup for Wisconsin and a good matchup for Duke. The Duke spread was -5 for that game and they destroyed it. Wisky had to go into OT to win.

Tonight when Duke wins in the realm of 72-65 I'll be counting my cash and saying "thank you Mich St for the comparable outcome that I needed"

[Thor4140]

Fade the public

pubic has won every Duke game in the tournament so far so what is your point?

[The Giant]

Name recognition and not ratings? Hmm.

I don't understand your question.

[Thor4140]

Duke covered every game so far. Only coach K teams are allowed to do that. Everyone else wins about two max before losing one. Amazing coach the guy is.

[jtoler]

Everyone LOVES talking about matchups, when honestly no one knows what that means. Kaminsky and Okafor will be a great battle, but it's not like the way Michigan State plays was a bad matchup for Wisconsin and a good matchup for Duke. The Duke spread was -5 for that game and they destroyed it. Wisky had to go into OT to win.

Tonight when Duke wins in the realm of 72-65 I'll be counting my cash and saying "thank you Mich St for the comparable outcome that I needed"

I can go through any teams schedule and find where they lost by double digits against a team, another team beat the team that won by double digits and when those two teams met either one won by double digits, you're not even mixing apples and oranges, more like apples and canteloupes.

[gregmav1]

I can go through any teams schedule and find where they lost by double digits against a team, another team beat the team that won by double digits and when those two teams met either one won by double digits, you're not even mixing apples and oranges, more like apples and canteloupes.

I'll see you back here tonight.

[jtoler]

I don't understand your question.

Ratings determined the spread.

[Vegas39]

So OP is mad because team he wants to bet on a dog

[The Giant]

Ratings determined the spread.

Oh, I thought you were talking about television ratings.

Nevermind.

Good luck to you, and God bless your family, jtoler.

[OckertCR]

Who is considered the home team for tonight's game?

[Smoke]

Game opened as a PK and i really wouldnt consider +1 a true dog

[RavensFan2k3]

"Lol" yes i am. I'd love to hear your reasoning for why that information is useless or is wrong. I'm honestly asking you to explain why you think it has no bearing in trying to handicap the game. If you have some better info I'd love to hear it.

Im not saying it's useless information, but there are countless times where team A beats team C handily, team B struggles with or even loses to team C and then team A struggles with team B. So to say Duke will beat Wisconsin simply because they beat a team by 20 that Wisconsin went to OT with in a conference chanpionship game is a bit of a reach. The first game vs Michigan State wasnt close, Michigan State hit a bunch of late threes late to barely cover the spread.

[TwoWays]

Shane battier and jay Williams are two guys to pay close attention to. Guys can't pick a playoff tourney game to save their lives. Jay will called for wv to beat kentucky. Then he said after game he'd not bet against Kentucky. We know what battier predicted.

[packerd_00]

Be nice to see a team win the title for a change that isn't one of the usual suspects. It's normally either Duke,Kentucky,Kansas or UConn

[packerd_00]

Should swap out Kansas for NC

[k13]

Public is split on this....

[stevenash]

Can the line be any more razor sharp?
Betting tonight's game is flipping a coin.

Records
34-4 and 36-3

SoS
4th and 6th

v. Top 25 records
10-2 and 10-1

Every single motherfucking metric is pretty much dead to rights even.

Reason why it's Wisconsin -1 and not Duke -1 or -2, the win over Kentucky.
People remember what happened last, and the last thing people remember is Wisconsin slaying Goliath.
Perception is everything.


GOLDEN_MEAN is completely SCORE BASED but with a different algorithm than the PURE POINTS
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In ELO_SCORE, the score determines what fraction of a victory was attained but since the maximum
fraction is ONE(1.00), no matter how big the score is, it prevents running up the score to be that advantageous;
It is slightly less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS or GOLDEN_MEAN,
in which the score is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR,
BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight
to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


College Basketball 2014-2015 Div I games only through games of 2015 April 4 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE

1 Kentucky = 99.25 38 1 79.52( 28) 6 1 | 18 1 | 97.99 1 | 99.45 1 | 100.28 2
2 Duke = 97.49 34 4 81.36( 4) 10 2 | 16 4 | 97.57 2 | 96.13 2 | 99.75 3
3 Wisconsin = 96.80 36 3 81.20( 6) 10 1 | 14 2 | 95.77 3 | 95.83 3 | 100.48 1

That's the best I can line it up.
Here

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/