Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[stevenash]

Encarncion has been known to take Archer deep

[jjgold]

Might be chilly tonight in NY......Yanks really not good hitting

A-Rod is done now if mini run

Tex playing over his head..should cool down

[Big Bear]

Encarncion has been known to take Archer deep

Encarnacion, Edwin vs. Archer, Chris

Archer, Chris	2013	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.143	.143	.571	.714
Archer, Chris	2014	14	2	3	0	0	2	5	1	0	3	1	0	.214	.267	.643	.910
Archer, Chris	2015	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.333	.000	.333
TOTAL		23	3	4	0	0	3	6	1	0	3	1	0	.174	.240	.565	.805

[Big Bear]

3 home runs in 3 years but only a .174 batting average.

[stevenash]

If the Brewers blow this ninth inning lead, my television is going to get hurt.

[goldengreek]

Encarncion has been known to take Archer deep

26 2/3 innings of scoreless pitching for Archer...Who the fuk did the cubs trade him for ??

[Big Bear]

If the Brewers blow this ninth inning lead, my television is going to get hurt.

lol

i know the feeling

[stevenash]

26 2/3 innings of scoreless pitching for Archer...Who the fuk did the cubs trade him for ??

• June 6, 2006: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 5th round of the 2006 amateur draft. Player signed July 9, 2006.
• December 31, 2008: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with John Gaub and Jeff Stevens to the Chicago Cubs for Mark DeRosa.
• January 8, 2011: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Hak-Ju Lee (minors), Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer to the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Garza,Fernando Perez and Zac Rosscup.

[goldengreek]

• June 6, 2006: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the 5th round of the 2006 amateur draft. Player signed July 9, 2006.
• December 31, 2008: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with John Gaub and Jeff Stevens to the Chicago Cubs for Mark DeRosa.
• January 8, 2011: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Hak-Ju Lee (minors), Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer to the Tampa Bay Rays for Matt Garza,Fernando Perez and Zac Rosscup.

[EXhoosier10]

Encarncion has been known to take Archer deep

2012-2015, Encarnacion has hit a HR on average of 7.1% of his AB's. That spans 1,617 AB's. In 23 AB's v. Archer, he has hit 3 HR's, for a rate of 13%. Just for fun, if you say he got slightly lucky over those 23 AB's and remove 1 of those 3 hr's, that moves him down to 8.6% HR/AB, only slightly higher than his line over the L3+ years.

[stevenash]

2012-2015, Encarnacion has hit a HR on average of 7.1% of his AB's. That spans 1,617 AB's. In 23 AB's v. Archer, he has hit 3 HR's, for a rate of 13%. Just for fun, if you say he got slightly lucky over those 23 AB's and remove 1 of those 3 hr's, that moves him down to 8.6% HR/AB, only slightly higher than his line over the L3+ years.

This is what I am saying, Encarncion has been known to have taken Archer deep.

Nothing more, nothing less.

What I said was Encarncion has hit homers off of Archer.

What is a) wrong with that statement.
b) what is misleading with that statement.

I will say it for the 10000th time.

BvP is not the be all end all of all stats.
BvP is not even my go to stat.
However, in many cases it shoud not be ignored. And if one were to debate that statement, than one has no concept of analytics.

[Big Bear]

sorry if askin a dumb question but what does


BVP mean?

batter vs pitcher?

[t-wizzle]

How things going in here nasher?

[stevenash]

How things going in here nasher?

Treading water, dead to rights even after week 4

[stevenash]

sorry if askin a dumb question but what does


BVP mean?

batter vs pitcher?

Correct.
No such thing as a dumb question by the way.

[jjgold]

The problem with baseball now if you look at the records there's tremendous parity which makes it much more difficult to handicap I am getting smashed

[stevenash]

The problem with baseball now if you look at the records there's tremendous parity which makes it much more difficult to handicap I am getting smashed

Just bet dogs.

[goldengreek]

The problem with baseball now if you look at the records there's tremendous parity which makes it much more difficult to handicap I am getting smashed

makes it easier

[stevenash]

Karns is worth a shot today at +130

[EXhoosier10]

This is what I am saying, Encarncion has been known to have taken Archer deep.

Nothing more, nothing less.

What I said was Encarncion has hit homers off of Archer.

Of the 42 pitchers Encarnacion has had 10+ PA's against since 2012, EE has hit HR' against all but 10 of them.

[jjgold]

The Yankees have hurt me early this season as they seem better than I thought although Tampas not bad as I thought on the road you could be onto something nashy.

[stevenash]

The Yankees have hurt me early this season as they seem better than I thought although Tampas not bad as I thought on the road you could be onto something nashy.

Plus I'm feeling a let down game too.

[dfish]

Karns is worth a shot today at +130

As is Vargas

[jjgold]

Alex Rodriguez is surprisingly a little better than I thought at this age and being out of the game for a while and he's actually helping the Yankees win games I might poke the dog though.

[ZetaPsi808]

Plus I'm feeling a let down game too.

yeah i was gonna say let down game too. yanks just had a big win over their cross town rival mets, it was on national tv. with that win they tied for 1st place too. rays are also in 1st place but they are getting zero media attention.

safe to say their egos are pretty high right now

regardless of who wins i think there will def be more money wagered on the yanks at books than the rays so books will need rays here

[posey]

The Yankees have hurt me early this season as they seem better than I thought although Tampas not bad as I thought on the road you could be onto something nashy.

No wonder if a team hurts you when you make picks by not analyzing but thinking.

[Jayvegas420]

Difference between Yanks & Rays is that Tampa is beating non-playoff teams. Yanks are beating really good teams.

[stevenash]

Of the 42 pitchers Encarnacion has had 10+ PA's against since 2012, EE has hit HR' against all but 10 of them.

Which makes my point, when fading the Blue Jays, and there is a time to fade every team, you have to consider the EE factor, and Joey Bats, and the newly acquired Donaldson.
Probably the most feared middle of the order in the game today.

Now, let's bump this portion up tonight, say 10:00 pm.

I'm thinking of also riding the Brewers again tonight, they face a hamburger in Jason Marquis.

As many are aware, I do the daily and the fantasy yearly thing.

I'm filling my lineup card now.

Off of Marquis, Braun is 15 for 28 lifetime with 5 doubles, 1 home run, 7 RBI's the ridiculous slash line with 3 walks is this.

536

/.594

/ .821

Off of Marquis, A-Ram is 10 for 27 lifetime with a double, a triple, 2 homeruns and his slash line is .370/ .414/ .704

We are talking 8 starts here, this is (I believe the 9th time) Marquis is facing Braun/A-Ram Brewers.
Previously that pair has owned a lifetime OPS of 1.14 and 1.12.
Why on God's green earth would I not start those two in a night fantasty lineup, and how can one tell me with a straight face those numbers are meaningless and must be ignored.

I am tried of repeating myself, BvP is not the be all end all of handicapping tools, it's not even a primary tool, however it can not be ignored as an anciary tool, it's a stat that lends support to the primary tools.

The primary tools to hadicapping the Brewer game, Marquis is not a good pitcher, etc. etc.
THe ancilary tool, Brewers especially Braun and Ramierz have torched Marquis in the past. History does have a habit of repeating itself.
25+ at bats is a large enought sample size. Chances are Braun/A-Ram will have a good night again.
That doesn't mean they won't go 0 for 8, but I would not bet on it.

Last night I started (and cashed) a fantasty team with Parra (who cost me next to nothing against the 'cap) based on his 9 for 19 lifetime BvP. Long story short, G. Parra last night 2 for 4 double, triple, 1 RBI, 2 runs scord. 7.5 points at FD, allowed me salary cap room to buy Mike Trout, who had himeself a giant night too.

[EXhoosier10]

Last night I started (and cashed) a fantasty team with Parra (who cost me next to nothing against the 'cap) based on his 9 for 19 lifetime BvP. Long story short, G. Parra last night 2 for 4 double, triple, 1 RBI, 2 runs scord. 7.5 points at FD, allowed me salary cap room to buy Mike Trout, who had himeself a giant night too.

It'd be interesting to make note of each of these BvP matchups you play and see how you fare over an entire season. It'd be impressive if the players you picked beat projections by a significant margin like you're suggesting. If you pick 150 players based over the course of a season, that's roughly 600 PA's worth of data.

Also, I'd be willing to challenge you to a season long fanduel/DK/etc if any of those are available anywhere

[stevenash]

It'd be interesting to make note of each of these BvP matchups you play and see how you fare over an entire season. It'd be impressive if the players you picked beat projections by a significant margin like you're suggesting. If you pick 150 players based over the course of a season, that's roughly 600 PA's worth of data.

Also, I'd be willing to challenge you to a season long fanduel/DK/etc if any of those are available anywhere

You'd be surprised.
Check out Gyrko 2B the other night too.

Hey, don't get me wrong, BvP's have backfired in the past too, over the long run, they do fine.

Just for shits and giggles, I'll post the better BvP's daily, right here.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Better not talk Ab that site on here or u get banned

[stevenash]

And mine is @sharpchicity

Gotcha

[stevenash]

It'd be interesting to make note of each of these BvP matchups you play and see how you fare over an entire season. It'd be impressive if the players you picked beat projections by a significant margin like you're suggesting. If you pick 150 players based over the course of a season, that's roughly 600 PA's worth of data.

Also, I'd be willing to challenge you to a season long fanduel/DK/etc if any of those are available anywhere

Braun is out of lineup

I'll roll with Adam Jones and his 6 for 10 (small sample size) but 2 bombs. (This the ancilary stat)
And Jones is hitting .356 vs. RHP and the 1.006 OPS that goes along with that. (this is the primary stat)

[stevenash]

2 plays

Rays at +131 and Brewers at +108

[Vasco]

Gotta hit Rays again today. Can't buy Chase Whitley at -120.