Get a load of this NFL trend for Sunday

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65704

    #1
    Get a load of this NFL trend for Sunday
    Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

    The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

    If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

    Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
    They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

    I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
    I like them more now.

    Bills -5
  • Bostongambler
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-01-08
    • 35581

    #2
    Good find Stevenash
    Comment
    • pattymayo
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 05-19-09
      • 10221

      #3
      there's been a few times over the years where Buffalo lost to NE in week 17, so are you counting the week after week 1 of the following season?
      Comment
      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65704

        #4
        Originally posted by pattymayo
        there's been a few times over the years where Buffalo lost to NE in week 17, so are you counting the week after week 1 of the following season?
        Yes
        Comment
        • 2daBank
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-26-09
          • 88966

          #5
          like bills already as well..
          Comment
          • Goat Milk
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 03-24-10
            • 25850

            #6
            where do you find these stats?
            Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
            Comment
            • stevenash
              Moderator
              • 01-17-11
              • 65704

              #7
              Originally posted by Goat Milk
              where do you find these stats?
              You want the long winded, bore you to tears, "wish I never asked" version
              or
              Short and sweet
              Comment
              • Big Bear
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 11-01-11
                • 43253

                #8
                Originally posted by stevenash
                Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

                The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

                If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

                Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
                They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

                I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
                I like them more now.

                Bills -5
                you dont think this is factored into the line?

                i had this game capped at Bills -2.5
                Comment
                • pattymayo
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-19-09
                  • 10221

                  #9
                  and how far back does this trend go? must go back 10+ years
                  Comment
                  • Goat Milk
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 03-24-10
                    • 25850

                    #10
                    Originally posted by stevenash
                    You want the long winded, bore you to tears, "wish I never asked" version
                    or
                    Short and sweet
                    The link will suffice.
                    Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                    Comment
                    • a4u2fear
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-29-10
                      • 8147

                      #11
                      Trends are stupid.

                      You SHOULD like this Bills this week. It's because they are very similar to Detroit on defense, and Detroit annihilated the Minnesota line; which Buffalo will also likely do. Last week Bills played a couple of schmucks at safety with Aaron Williams out - he's back in.

                      Bills in a 23-7 type game.
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        nashy good trend although trends can break too

                        I never trust Bills
                        Comment
                        • TheKLB
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 09-26-12
                          • 173

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Goat Milk
                          The link will suffice.
                          Comment
                          • warbux
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 11-17-13
                            • 896

                            #14
                            I'm going to ride with you on this!
                            Comment
                            • pattymayo
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 05-19-09
                              • 10221

                              #15
                              trends can be manipulated to support any side, what about this one

                              The Bills are 2-14 ATS (-8.72 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 after a game at home
                              Comment
                              • 44 Mag
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 10-14-13
                                • 34490

                                #16
                                The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.
                                Comment
                                • stevenash
                                  Moderator
                                  • 01-17-11
                                  • 65704

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                  Trends are stupid.

                                  You SHOULD like this Bills this week. It's because they are very similar to Detroit on defense, and Detroit annihilated the Minnesota line; which Buffalo will also likely do. Last week Bills played a couple of schmucks at safety with Aaron Williams out - he's back in.

                                  Bills in a 23-7 type game.
                                  I was on the Bills before I spotted that.
                                  Comment
                                  • pavyracer
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 04-12-07
                                    • 82840

                                    #18
                                    They are playing the Vikings. Won't need trend's help.
                                    Comment
                                    • stevenash
                                      Moderator
                                      • 01-17-11
                                      • 65704

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                      The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.
                                      I think that trend has something to do with the after effects of playing New England.
                                      Hank Gola is a sports blogger/writer, that is where I spotted this trend, I verified using SQL database on excel.
                                      Just tell your database to pull up past results when certain factors are involved.
                                      For instance, you can tell a database, using SQL or whatever language, how many TD catches did Marhall Faulk have out of the backfield from 2001-2003?
                                      Comment
                                      • stevenash
                                        Moderator
                                        • 01-17-11
                                        • 65704

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                        The same could be said for a ton of NFL teams. If you really researched it. Coincidence, Buffalo is not that good, but neither is their opponent.
                                        Buffalo is so-so, Vikings are awful
                                        Comment
                                        • d2bets
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 08-10-05
                                          • 39995

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by stevenash
                                          Stumbled upon this playing around earlier.

                                          The Buffalo Bills are 21 and 2 ATS when facing a losing team (Vikings fit the trend spot here) the week after playing the New England Patriots.

                                          If you are hungover from last night, I'll help you out here.

                                          Buffalo Bills lost to the Patriots last week 37-22.
                                          They are playing a losing team (or under .500 if you will) in the Minnesota Vikings.

                                          I liked Buffalo before spotting this trend.
                                          I like them more now.

                                          Bills -5
                                          How many of the 23 were the Bills favorites (and how many at least -5 or more)?
                                          Comment
                                          • stevenash
                                            Moderator
                                            • 01-17-11
                                            • 65704

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by d2bets
                                            How many of the 23 were the Bills favorites (and how many at least -5 or more)?
                                            a) 6
                                            b) 2
                                            Comment
                                            • Smoke
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-09-09
                                              • 48111

                                              #23
                                              I trust stevenash

                                              POUNDING
                                              Comment
                                              • I/O
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 05-26-11
                                                • 7922

                                                #24
                                                putting money down on a game all based on ONE trend
                                                Comment
                                                • JMon
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                  • 9800

                                                  #25
                                                  You guys are funny. There are threads utilizing sdql in ever sport. Been using it for over four years now.
                                                  and 2fear you are fool to think otherwise.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • I/O
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 05-26-11
                                                    • 7922

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by JMon
                                                    You guys are funny. There are threads utilizing sdql in ever sport. Been using it for over four years now.
                                                    and 2fear you are fool to think otherwise.
                                                    If data base mining actually worked, Vegas would have been history years ago.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JMon
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                      • 9800

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by I/O
                                                      If data base mining actually worked, Vegas would have been history years ago.
                                                      Clearly subjective thinking here. It doesn't beat vegas, yet another way to handicap. If used incorrectly, it's no more than flipping a coin. For instance the trend link above.

                                                      I use it more for situational play and it's very advantageous. I posted a 10-2 post season (+8.57) in the MLB SDQL thread, all documented. Getting ready to post KC game one.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • I/O
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 05-26-11
                                                        • 7922

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by JMon
                                                        Clearly subjective thinking here. It doesn't beat vegas, yet another way to handicap. If used incorrectly, it's no more than flipping a coin. For instance the trend link above.

                                                        I use it more for situational play and it's very advantageous. I posted a 10-2 post season (+8.57) in the MLB SDQL thread, all documented. Getting ready to post KC game one.
                                                        It's called "average to the mean"

                                                        Congrats on your winning season. Do it over 10 or 20 years.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by I/O
                                                          It's called "average to the mean"

                                                          Congrats on your winning season. Do it over 10 or 20 years.
                                                          Yes regression is figured in friend. I've had 4 years of profits using such. Like I said just another way to handicap. No different than what we all try to achieve here.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • sweethook
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-21-07
                                                            • 12667

                                                            #30
                                                            lets cash it steve , gl
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stevenash
                                                              Moderator
                                                              • 01-17-11
                                                              • 65704

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by JMon
                                                              Yes regression is figured in friend. I've had 4 years of profits using such. Like I said just another way to handicap. No different than what we all try to achieve here.
                                                              And it's not the end all be all either.
                                                              I use it as an enhancer, in other words, I liked Buff. even before seeing this trend, this trend just enforces my thoughts.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • stevenash
                                                                Moderator
                                                                • 01-17-11
                                                                • 65704

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by pattymayo
                                                                and how far back does this trend go? must go back 10+ years
                                                                It must?
                                                                Why?
                                                                Because you said so?

                                                                Let's see, both teams play each other twice a year, the sample size here is 23 games, two divided by 23 is.....?
                                                                You do the math
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JMon
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                                  • 9800

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                  And it's not the end all be all either.
                                                                  I use it as an enhancer, in other words, I liked Buff. even before seeing this trend, this trend just enforces my thoughts.
                                                                  bol...I'm not on this play, but value your logic, post #19. But I did run this query and I got 19-2 (ATS) 16-5 (SU) since 1990. Average line (-.7). Browns got them in '08, 27-29 as 5 pt. favs, and Bengals got them in 2011 as 3pt favs. Wanted to see how they did non conference, 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS...

                                                                  Bol of luck for those on this game! Just not enough for me too play it!

                                                                  Critical thinking and an open mind is the key to winning in gambling!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • I/O
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 05-26-11
                                                                    • 7922

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Well the good thing is, after this game, if the trend is 21-3, it can be trotted out when the situation arises again.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NostraDanUS
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-02-09
                                                                      • 665

                                                                      #35
                                                                      road team: Minnesota : current rating = 13.97, last_3_delta = - 4.28, ATS record: 2- 4, O/U: 2/ 4
                                                                      home team: Buffalo : current rating = 18.86, last_3_delta = - 2.08, ATS record: 3- 3, O/U: 1/ 5

                                                                      Buffalo favored by 5.5
                                                                      over/under: 42.5

                                                                      ***

                                                                      Minnesota road ATS record: 1- 2
                                                                      Buffalo home ATS record: 1- 2

                                                                      Minnesota home sched rating: 21.13, ave MoV: -8.00
                                                                      Minnesota road sched rating: 20.02, ave MoV: -5.00

                                                                      Buffalo home sched rating: 23.56, ave MoV: -2.67
                                                                      Buffalo road sched rating: 20.90, ave MoV: 0.00

                                                                      Minnesota home/road ratings: 9.30 / 16.89
                                                                      Buffalo home/road ratings: 17.43 / 23.36

                                                                      Minnesota ave points for/against/combined: 17.33 / 23.83 / 41.17
                                                                      Buffalo ave points for/against/combined: 19.17 / 21.00 / 40.17

                                                                      Minnesota home points for/against/combined: 17.00 / 25.00 / 42.00
                                                                      Minnesota road points for/against/combined: 17.67 / 22.67 / 40.33
                                                                      Buffalo home points for/against/combined: 20.33 / 23.00 / 43.33
                                                                      Buffalo road points for/against/combined: 18.00 / 19.00 / 37.00


                                                                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------


                                                                      head-to-head history (lined games):

                                                                      12/ 5/2010 Buffalo 14 + 5.5 at Minnesota 38
                                                                      10/ 1/2006 Minnesota 12 + 0.0 at Buffalo 17
                                                                      9/15/2002 Buffalo 45 + 5.0 at Minnesota 39
                                                                      10/22/2000 Buffalo 27 + 7.0 at Minnesota 31
                                                                      8/31/1997 Minnesota 34 + 2.5 at Buffalo 13
                                                                      12/11/1994 Minnesota 21 + 3.5 at Buffalo 17

                                                                      average outcome:
                                                                      Minnesota 29.2 Buffalo 22.2
                                                                      margin = -7.00

                                                                      time-weighted average outcome:
                                                                      Minnesota 31.5 Buffalo 15.3
                                                                      margin = -16.23

                                                                      average result when the home team is Buffalo
                                                                      Minnesota 22.3 Buffalo 15.7
                                                                      margin = -6.67

                                                                      average result when the home team is Minnesota
                                                                      Buffalo 28.7 Minnesota 36.0
                                                                      margin = 7.33

                                                                      66.67 % of games went Over
                                                                      33.33 % went Over at Buffalo

                                                                      average total points per game = 51.33
                                                                      time-weighted average total = 46.75

                                                                      the home team covered 33.33 % of the time
                                                                      the road team covered 66.67 % of the time
                                                                      Ave ATS differential = -3.58

                                                                      the favorite covered 20.00 % of the time
                                                                      the underdog covered 80.00 % of the time
                                                                      Ave ATS differential = -4.30

                                                                      the favorite won SU 40.00 % of the time

                                                                      Minnesota covered 50.00 % of the time
                                                                      Buffalo covered 50.00 % of the time

                                                                      Buffalo covered 33.33 % of the time at home
                                                                      Buffalo covered 0.00 % of the time as home favorites


                                                                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------


                                                                      similar games:

                                                                      12/ 8/2013 Minnesota 26 + 6.0 at Baltimore 29
                                                                      12/14/2008 Buffalo 27 + 7.5 at NY Jets 31
                                                                      10/15/2006 Tennessee 25 +10.0 at Washington 22
                                                                      9/18/2005 Cleveland 26 + 6.5 at Green Bay 24
                                                                      11/21/2004 Miami 17 + 9.0 at Seattle 24
                                                                      11/16/2003 Detroit 14 +10.0 at Seattle 35
                                                                      10/27/2002 Detroit 17 + 7.5 at Buffalo 24
                                                                      10/14/2001 Detroit 26 + 9.5 at Minnesota 31
                                                                      10/17/1999 Philadelphia 20 + 7.0 at Chicago 16
                                                                      11/ 1/1998 Arizona 17 + 6.0 at Detroit 15
                                                                      11/ 3/1996 Tampa Bay 10 + 6.5 at Chicago 13
                                                                      9/ 3/1995 Cincinnati 24 + 6.5 at Indianapolis 21
                                                                      12/ 4/1994 New Orleans 31 + 3.0 at LA Rams 15
                                                                      12/15/1991 New England 6 + 7.0 at NY Jets 3

                                                                      mean score road team 20.4 home team 21.6

                                                                      average point spread = + 7.3

                                                                      the home team covered 7.14 % of the time
                                                                      the road team covered 92.86 % of the time
                                                                      ave ATS Differential = -6.07

                                                                      the favorite covered 7.14 % of the time
                                                                      the underdog covered 92.86 % of the time
                                                                      ave ATS Differential = -6.07

                                                                      the favorite won SU 50.00 % of the time
                                                                      Comment
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