Get a load of this NFL trend for Sunday

[Alex Vaile]

bol...I'm not on this play, but value your logic, post #19. But I did run this query and I got 19-2 (ATS) 16-5 (SU) since 1990. Average line (-.7). Browns got them in '08, 27-29 as 5 pt. favs, and Bengals got them in 2011 as 3pt favs. Wanted to see how they did non conference, 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS...

Bol of luck for those on this game! Just not enough for me too play it!

Critical thinking and an open mind is the key to winning in gambling!

Good call JMon. Always solid thinking!

[NostraDanUS]

road team: Kansas City : current rating = 22.86, last_3_delta = +14.66, ATS record: 3- 1, O/U: 2/ 3
home team: San Diego : current rating = 27.33, last_3_delta = + 0.55, ATS record: 5- 1, O/U: 3/ 3

San Diego favored by 4.0
over/under: 45.0

***

Kansas City road ATS record: 2- 0
San Diego home ATS record: 3- 0

Kansas City home sched rating: 17.53, ave MoV: 5.50
Kansas City road sched rating: 24.34, ave MoV: 2.33

San Diego home sched rating: 15.56, ave MoV: 19.67
San Diego road sched rating: 17.63, ave MoV: 4.67

Kansas City home/road ratings: 21.05 / 29.22
San Diego home/road ratings: 34.21 / 26.50

Kansas City ave points for/against/combined: 23.80 / 20.20 / 44.00
San Diego ave points for/against/combined: 27.33 / 15.17 / 42.50

Kansas City home points for/against/combined: 25.50 / 20.00 / 45.50
Kansas City road points for/against/combined: 22.67 / 20.33 / 43.00
San Diego home points for/against/combined: 31.33 / 11.67 / 43.00
San Diego road points for/against/combined: 23.33 / 18.67 / 42.00


----------------------------------------------------------------------


head-to-head history (lined games):

12/29/2013 Kansas City 24 +10.0 at San Diego 27
11/24/2013 San Diego 41 + 4.5 at Kansas City 38
11/ 1/2012 Kansas City 13 + 8.0 at San Diego 31
9/30/2012 San Diego 37 - 1.0 at Kansas City 20
10/31/2011 San Diego 20 - 3.0 at Kansas City 23
9/25/2011 Kansas City 17 +14.5 at San Diego 20
12/12/2010 Kansas City 0 + 7.0 at San Diego 31
9/13/2010 San Diego 14 - 4.5 at Kansas City 21
11/29/2009 Kansas City 14 +13.5 at San Diego 43
10/25/2009 San Diego 37 - 6.0 at Kansas City 7
12/14/2008 San Diego 22 - 6.0 at Kansas City 21
11/ 9/2008 Kansas City 19 +15.0 at San Diego 20
12/ 2/2007 San Diego 24 - 4.5 at Kansas City 10
9/30/2007 Kansas City 30 +13.0 at San Diego 16
12/17/2006 Kansas City 9 + 9.0 at San Diego 20
10/22/2006 San Diego 27 - 4.5 at Kansas City 30
12/24/2005 San Diego 7 + 1.0 at Kansas City 20
10/30/2005 Kansas City 20 + 4.5 at San Diego 28
1/ 2/2005 Kansas City 17 - 1.5 at San Diego 24
11/28/2004 San Diego 34 + 2.5 at Kansas City 31
11/30/2003 Kansas City 28 - 7.5 at San Diego 24
9/ 7/2003 San Diego 14 + 3.5 at Kansas City 27
12/22/2002 San Diego 22 + 4.0 at Kansas City 24
10/13/2002 Kansas City 34 + 3.0 at San Diego 35
12/23/2001 San Diego 17 + 3.5 at Kansas City 20
11/ 4/2001 Kansas City 25 + 6.5 at San Diego 20
11/26/2000 Kansas City 16 - 3.5 at San Diego 17
9/17/2000 San Diego 10 + 4.5 at Kansas City 42
10/31/1999 San Diego 0 + 6.0 at Kansas City 34
10/ 3/1999 Kansas City 14 + 0.0 at San Diego 21
11/22/1998 Kansas City 37 - 4.0 at San Diego 38
9/20/1998 San Diego 7 + 9.5 at Kansas City 23
12/14/1997 Kansas City 29 - 9.5 at San Diego 7
10/16/1997 San Diego 3 + 5.5 at Kansas City 31
11/24/1996 San Diego 28 + 5.5 at Kansas City 14
9/29/1996 Kansas City 19 + 2.0 at San Diego 22
11/12/1995 Kansas City 22 + 1.0 at San Diego 7
10/ 9/1995 San Diego 23 + 3.5 at Kansas City 29
11/13/1994 San Diego 14 + 3.0 at Kansas City 13
10/ 9/1994 Kansas City 6 + 1.5 at San Diego 20
12/19/1993 San Diego 24 + 8.5 at Kansas City 28
10/17/1993 Kansas City 17 - 4.0 at San Diego 14
1/ 2/1993 Kansas City 0 + 3.0 at San Diego 17
11/ 8/1992 San Diego 14 + 6.0 at Kansas City 16
9/ 6/1992 Kansas City 24 - 2.5 at San Diego 10
12/ 8/1991 San Diego 17 + 9.0 at Kansas City 20
9/29/1991 Kansas City 14 - 3.5 at San Diego 13
12/23/1990 Kansas City 24 - 3.0 at San Diego 21
11/18/1990 San Diego 10 + 3.5 at Kansas City 27

average outcome:
Kansas City 21.2 San Diego 20.7
margin = -0.59

time-weighted average outcome:
Kansas City 19.4 San Diego 27.7
margin = 8.34

average result when the home team is San Diego
Kansas City 18.9 San Diego 21.8
margin = 2.96

average result when the home team is Kansas City
San Diego 19.4 Kansas City 23.7
margin = 4.29

43.48 % of games went Over
37.50 % went Over at San Diego

average total points per game = 41.90
time-weighted average total = 47.04

the home team covered 56.25 % of the time
the road team covered 43.75 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.05

the favorite covered 44.68 % of the time
the underdog covered 55.32 % of the time
Ave ATS differential = 1.86

the favorite won SU 72.92 % of the time

Kansas City covered 43.75 % of the time
San Diego covered 56.25 % of the time

San Diego covered 62.50 % of the time at home
San Diego covered 53.33 % of the time as home favorites


----------------------------------------------------------------------


similar games:

12/ 4/2011 Atlanta 10 - 1.0 at Houston 17
9/ 8/2011 New Orleans 34 + 4.0 at Green Bay 42
12/27/2010 New Orleans 17 + 2.5 at Atlanta 14
12/26/2010 NY Giants 17 + 3.0 at Green Bay 45
12/ 5/2004 Denver 17 + 3.0 at San Diego 20
10/19/2003 New England 19 + 6.0 at Miami 13
10/12/2003 Carolina 23 + 5.0 at Indianapolis 20
9/22/2003 Oakland 10 + 3.5 at Denver 31
1/27/2002 New England 24 + 7.5 at Pittsburgh 17
9/22/1996 Denver 14 + 5.0 at Kansas City 17
11/ 8/1992 Pittsburgh 20 + 7.0 at Buffalo 28

mean score road team 18.6 home team 24.0

average point spread = + 4.1

the home team covered 50.00 % of the time
the road team covered 50.00 % of the time
ave ATS Differential = 1.35

the favorite covered 40.00 % of the time
the underdog covered 60.00 % of the time
ave ATS Differential = -0.25

the favorite won SU 54.55 % of the time

[cankid]

thanks gl

[Cougsky17]

It must?
Why?
Because you said so?

Let's see, both teams play each other twice a year, the sample size here is 23 games, two divided by 23 is.....?
You do the math

Yeah but does that count when NE played BUF in the playo.....

[stevenash]

Yeah but does that count when NE played BUF in the playo.....

Good one.

Made me laugh, but my point is, the trend says Bills play well against crappy teams after playing New England.
But based soley on that fact, and that fact alone, doesn't mean you should run out and bet the farm on Buffalo.

[stevenash]

What you can handicap is Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller getting carted off the field in a wheelbarrel in the first half alone.

What's next Carpenter going to pull a groin on a FG attempt?

[pavyracer]

What you can handicap is Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller getting carted off the field in a wheelbarrel in the first half alone.

What's next Carpenter going to pull a groin on a FG attempt?

But you didn't handicap the game. You followed a trend.

[stevenash]

But you didn't handicap the game. You followed a trend.

Did you fail reading comprehension you miseralbe trolling prick?
Go back to the part where I said I was already on Buffalo (which is a loser today, oh well, shit happens, can't win them all) before I spotted this trend.

Post 1
Sentence 6

Right there, very first post.
How can you miss it.

If trolling was an Olympic sport, you and Leetreaper would be gold medalists with your pictures on Wheatie boxes and everything.

[leetreaper]

SBR at it's finest, one poster worse than another, priceless

Check out PT posts: 2 lakerboy posts are losers, this one, I see 1 on Lions, Was Huskies still there from yesterday, fukking free money EVERYWHERE....and like this EVERYDAY

[stevenash]

^
Says the troller that got laughed off how many forums?
Hmmm, and over at 2+2, let's see what they have to say.
Let me get the links.

Did you miss the post where I popped a dime on GB TT o27.5?

Carry on.

I'm still laughing at all the posts that f'n murdered you from other forums you got laughed off of.
Gimme a few minutes, I'll post them here.

[jjgold]

problem with handicapping football is injuries and turnovers
It probably hurts more than any other sport and comes into play more than any other sport

Nashy give us something tonight

[stevenash]

Nashy give us something tonight

Chalk city
Broncs

[Smoke]

Nashy u cost me $110 but I forgive you

[44 Mag]

Bottom line, they didn't cover the spread. I didn't see anybody taking Buff. ML???

[stevenash]

Bottom line, they didn't cover the spread. I didn't see anybody taking Buff. ML???

Bottom line they did not.
And no, did not want to lay 2:1 on ML, but was tempted, but I don't like to lay anything more than -130.

Ever notice it's miserable air bettors that troll threads by the way
No Mag, that was not directed at you.

[Ra77er]

I know its hard Nashy but don't let it get to you man. I personally do not subscribe to the trend betting (yes I know you liked them prior to seeing the trend) but fuk the haters. 98% of us are too scared to post anything in players talk so it's guys like you that keep it going

[Bostongambler]

It's only one game. U will get the next one and no one will say a word.

[stevenash]

It's only one game. U will get the next one and no one will say a word.

Had GB TT o27.5 LARGE
(and I'm a tight wad)
People can call me whatever they want for the next month for all I care)
That one was SCREAMING a dime bet, looked at the defense, said to myself "don't overthink this, Rodgers is going to shred that defense"

[biz1127]

It's called "average to the mean"

Congrats on your winning season. Do it over 10 or 20 years.

You completely miss the point. There are many ways to use SDQL correctly, many don't.

Your "system" should have a premise, a good sample size, and consistent year to year success. I use SDQL and Bet Labs for the 4 major sports and NCAA F/B. I had my best basketball season ever last year, my baseball has been profitable, and football very good.

Its not "average to the mean". If you think every game will revert back to the mean, you truly don't understand sports wagering or the psychology of sports.

[pavyracer]

The Bills will win a lot of games this year NFL guru Rex Ryan at the helms.