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Newhouse's calling range there is pretty large bc the button is shoving so wide, and only a small portion of that calling range is he "just calling" with in order to trap (AA/KK/QQ). Newhouse is jamming it all in with all strong hands other than AA/KK/QQ, hands like 55 through JJ, AJ-AK, and KQ, and call/folding to a jam with all the rest of the hands (I only know this bc of how the hand went down). It looks like he is committed since he put in 40% of his stack, but really he can find a fold because the BB HAS to have a big hand to jam. I think 77 is right on the cusp here so I really cant fault Bruno's play either way. Bruno showing that 77 fold says a lot and he is giving away too much info by showing when he doesnt have to.
its a smart play by Newhouse, although it really sucks when the BB does find a jamming hand behind you and you just threw away almost half ur chips.... but in this situation it doesnt happen very oftenComment -
This may be one of the weaker final tables. Newhouse with a nice pot after hitting a set. Was against Bruno too, so maybe that hand got to him STAX.Comment -
agreed, most definately got to him... He is thinking, man I play those sevens and I'm chip leader with 11 left!! Little does he know that Newhouse wouldda folded and still been alive. Either way he is thinking he lost about 10 million. Probably gonna cost him unless he gets lucky... worst part is everyone saw him fold the 77 so they know he is thinking this. if he just shuts the fck up and mucks, he can steam on the inside and at least keep it from everyone elseComment -
Not much worse than folding a pocket pair and seeing that your set would hit. And he showed everyone, like you said.
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Looks like Greaves is about done. AQ ran into KK
Yep, done in 12th...Maximilian done in 11th.Comment -
Not faulting folding 77 in that spot either, just interesting to me he showed it like hes laying down kings. Newhouse calling had to be very scary to a mid pair plus showing the fold might be meta game to get the others to try to run him over. Folding and having a tight image, knocking out 2 this deep or losing and having 15BB were his choices so he choose the safe route.Comment -
Nice variety we got in the final 10...who bubbles and gets the worst 10th possible1 William Pappaconstantinou USA 2 Felix Stephensen Norway 3 Jorryt van Hoof Netherlands 4 Mark Newhouse USA 5 Luis Velador Mexico 6 Andoni Larrabe Spain 7 William Tonking USA 8 Dan Sindelar USA 9 Martin Jacobson Sweden 10 Bruno Politano Brazil 
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Who knows...gonna have two big hands run into each other at some point. I'm rooting against the guy from NJ.
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no thats why i kinda fault hima little for folding the 77, Bruno had 19MIL to start the hand, Newhouse had 9MIL. Worst case Bruno has 10MIL after the hand and 33 BBs, best case he has 34 MIL and knocks out 2. Newhouse wouldda folded though if Bruno did shove the 77, but that is beside the point. Bruno is thinking there is no way Newhouse can fold here, while newhouse is folding for sure if Bruno shoves. A worldclass player wouldda shipped those sevens in this spot for sure, but then again Newhouse may have played it different with a worldclass player in the BB here.Comment -
Newhouse looking good...not gonna compare him to Harrington, an all-time great but one of the best back to backs ever.1 William Pappaconstantinou USA 18,400,000 2 Felix Stephensen Norway 30,425,000 3 Jorryt van Hoof Netherlands 37,425,000 4 Mark Newhouse USA 24,750,000 5 Luis Velador Mexico 23,075,000 6 Andoni Larrabe Spain 7,350,000 7 William Tonking USA 6,275,000 8 Dan Sindelar USA 20,000,000 9 Martin Jacobson Sweden 22,450,000 10 Bruno Politano Brazil 10,325,000 Comment -
When you realize that Newhouse is NEVER just calling there with AT-AK or a pair better than 77, it makes it more and more of a shove. Obviously he will just call SOME of the time with AA/KK/QQ in order to trap, but he is jamming these hands some of the time too. You gotta realize that the only hands you are worried about is a pair higher than 77, and AA/KK/QQ are such a small part of his calling range that you almost have to jam the 77. The marjority of Newhouse's calling range he is folding to a jam, which Bruno failed to realize. All the hands Bruno is scared of (except AA/KK/QQ), Newhouse would have jammed. If he calls off the remaining 5MIL with two over then so be it, risk/reward is too great in favor of reward. Bruno still has 10MIL if Newhouse calls and wins.Comment -
NJ will be out soon enough.Comment -
And he doubles up...he can thank me later. His J9 versus AJ flopped a straight and held up against a flush draw.
Tonking that is, over Jacobsen. Bruno the short stack but everyone alive.Comment -
Hand #4:Dan Sindelar raised to 750,000 from early position and it folded around to Mark Newhouse who called from the button. The two took a flop of
and Sindelar came out swinging for 950,000. Newhouse called to see fourth street.
The turn was the
and Sindelar slowed with a check. Newhouse rapped the table back and the 
finished off the board. Both players checked and Sindelar tabled 
for merely king-high. Newhouse rolled over 
to take down the pot.
Can't figure out this turn or river check. Why give a free card on that wet turn after calling the flop? Unless he floated him on the flop but then why don't you try to rep an A pushing out draws?Comment -
Not much good play going on, a lot of weak play. One bet folds and checking pots down.Comment -
Hand #17: Jorryt van Hoof popped it up to 800,000 from middle position and found a call from Luis Velador in the hijack. Andoni Larrabe three-bet shoved all in from the hijack for his last 10 million. Action folded back around to van Hoof who threw his hand into the muck. Velador asked for a count and then went into the tank for about two minutes before announcing a call.
Velador:
Larrabe:
Larrabe was in a dominating position heading to the flop with his pocket aces. The dealer fanned
on the felt, pairing Velador's king but keeping Larrabe out in front. The 
paired the board on the turn, meaning Larrabe needed to dodge a king on the river in order to score the double.
The
completed the board and Larrabe scored the double up.
I think my man is getting tired because in this spot calling the all in is horrible imo. Why race at best for half your stack against a guy who has not gotten out of line?Comment -
He is older, could be tired...no need to call there.Comment -
Velador needs a double now, down to 6.8Comment -
Hand #24: Bruno Politano raised to 900,000 in middle position, and Mark Newhouse called from the button. Luis Velador risked it all in the small blind for 6.15 million, and Politano thought for about two minutes before mucking. Newhouse took a bit of time as well before making the call.
Newhouse:
Velador:
Velador needed a four to avoid busting on the most disappointing bubble in poker. The flop:
. The 
turn closed out chopping possibilities. The Brazilian crowd broke into song again as the dealer prepared to deliver the river card. It was the prettiest card in the deck: the , and Velador was done in by the bigger boat.
Sick way to bubble the FT. Surprised Newhouse called 30% of his stack in that spot but it worked out for him.Comment -
This goes a little beyond X's & O's. Bruno opted to fold a mediocre hand 3 way and potentially move up in the cash prize structure (make the Nov 9 at that) without risking anything. He could have called and hoped to have checked it down, or he could have raised, potentially knocked Newhouse out with dead money or gotten a Newhouse call and played for a huge pot with, again, a mediocre hand for a 3 way situation. Seems like a fold is just fine...risk nothing and watch the two other guys fight it out on the bubble. When thinking about ICM I think I fold is fine. It'd be more interesting to see what he'd do with a hand like TT JJ there.Comment -
77 and JJ are essentially the same hand here. Newhouse never just calling with any pair between 77 and JJ, and he is never just calling with AQ or AK. He may trap with AA/KK/QQ but I still dont think he is getting fancy at this point of the main event. I like your idea about Bruno just calling tho and just hoping to check it down.
Its not a horrible play here no matter what he does really, but I like the idea of knocking two players out and getting the chiplead 11 handed, with the downside being "I still have 10M and 33 BBS if I lose".
1. Shove and get called by Newhouse:
Win and have 34M and 113 BBs (chiplead)
Lose and have 10M and 33 BBs
Beat Newhouse but lose main pot: 19M and 63 BBs
2. Shove and get Newhouse to fold:
Win and have 29M and 97 BBs (chiplead)
Lose and have 15M and 50 BBs
3. Fold preflop:
19M and 63 BBsComment -
ida laid the 77s down too.... 99, i call... just because i laid down 99 in a wsop event, and after telling a pro who was watching the table, at the break after the next hand what i laid down, he said "NEVER LAY DOWN 99 THERE".... I was in a similar situation where the guy in the sb had aq, much like the the sb had here..... same move, he just called a ss one behind the button's all in move (kq)..... ever since then, 99 is my cutoff point there. the 99 woulda won the hand as they both missed. Here, with the 77, he had to be thinking that at best he was in a race, and worst case sb may have him dominated with a bigger pair..... why risk it when he's on the cusp of the nov. 9.... easy lay down for him.... he knows he might be facing 4 overs, as he's thinking sb is pot committed.Comment -
like the color commentary.... earlier, "the dealer fanned out...." here, ".... most disappointing bubble in poker" and "the prettiest card in the deck...." looks like your after Norm Chad's job! nice reporting and good hand analysis!!!Hand #24: Bruno Politano raised to 900,000 in middle position, and Mark Newhouse called from the button. Luis Velador risked it all in the small blind for 6.15 million, and Politano thought for about two minutes before mucking. Newhouse took a bit of time as well before making the call.
Newhouse:
Velador:
Velador needed a four to avoid busting on the most disappointing bubble in poker. The flop:. The turn closed out chopping possibilities. The Brazilian crowd broke into song again as the dealer prepared to deliver the river card. It was the prettiest card in the deck: the , and Velador was done in by the bigger boat.
Sick way to bubble the FT. Surprised Newhouse called 30% of his stack in that spot but it worked out for him.Comment -
Just for the record the hand writeups with all the flowery wording were pokernews. Analysis under the writeups was me.
As for the Politano 77 fold, I think a lot of people are undervaluing the EV of knocking out the best player plus a shorty and having roughly 30 more BB than second place at this stage in the game. 77 is the same hand as 88 99 1010 in this situation, a middle pair that is racing overs or dominated/dominating. The button push was from the short stack whos range was wide open, and the SB call was from the loosest and probably most dangerous player left. If we give the shorty push a range weighted Qx, Kx, Ax and including all pairs what is Newhouse calling with that doesnt have blockers to the Buttons hand? Its one of those way ahead or way behind situations and you've got to make the right decision at the right time. Say I'm way ahead so I'm taking a shot at first place or I'm playing it safe and trying to ladder up a few pay spots. I bet Newhouse called thinking he had the best hand and hoped the Brazillian would push to chase out his dead money and was shocked when he showed a pairComment -
It's easy for us to sit back and analyze the play when we aren't the ones playing for literally hundred of thousands of dollars
I wish I was in their shoes. I think the safe play is perfectly okay here. In an SBR tournament or some tournament down at the local poker room where its not life changing money on the line, shove away. I don't know exactly how many players where left but I'm pretty sure the icm would advocate letting these guys duel it out without risking anything. I've been wrong before tho...
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I agree the safe play is fine and I'm not faulting Politano. I also agree most icm models would probably dictate a fold as deep as they were, but imo, if icm could weigh the advantage of knocking out a killer like Newhouse and making a top 3 finish more likely it is a close play. I get any payout this deep is huge money so that could turn out to be a +million dollar fold for him, but my mentality is always play for first and I'd look at it as a -8mil fold if I didn't take it down or at least make it heads up.Comment -
Even if Newhouse goes out 9th again I still say he should top Harrington in 03-04. Or at least be regarded as even with Action Dan. Effectively locked up 18th minimum out of 13,000 over 15/372 days.
I was also reminded of Greg Raymers run in 05 after winning it in 04. One beat away from getting his second FT in a row and being up there with Harrington as well.
Outcome
With 25 players remaining in the main event and the blinds at $20,000-$40,000($5,000 ante), defending champion Greg Raymer made a standard raise to $100,000 and Aaron Kanter called. Both players had roughly average chip counts, with about $2.3 million for Raymer and about $1.9 million for Kanter. On the flop Raymer bet $150,000, and Kanter called. On the turn Raymer bet $300,000, Kanter raised to $900,000, Raymer moved all in, and kanter called. On the river Kanter made a flush to cripple Raymer, who was eliminated three hands later.
Analysis
Note: Kanter was trying to represent a straight or a set with his reraise on the turn, but Raymer was confident in his read that his kings were still dominant, and he moved all in. At that point, Kanter felt pot-committed to the flush draw he had picked up on the turn and called, and made his flush on the river. Even though this hand effectively ended Raymer's unbelievable run to repeat as champion, he played the hand beautifully, trapping an opponent who was drawing thin.Comment -
ICM clearly leans to a shove with the 77... you cant forget we still have 33 BBs if we lose the entire pot. We risk less than half our stack in a clearly +EV spot, for a chance to knock out 2 players with 13 left. Plus, we are the chip leader with 110 BBs!!!!!
I agree it is tough to pull the trigger here, and I'm not saying I would have pulled it either... but if you go back and analyze the hand it is a pretty standard spot to shove. Greg Merson would have shoved in this spot two years a go I promise you.Comment
