Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[stevenash]

You have 5 posts since opening your ghost account, and chose to attack Nash out of the gate.
Can you embarrass yourself any worse?
What account did you get laughed off of and forced into retirement to come and start this one you fukkin scumbag?

STOP !
Let it go.

[KawadaKicks17]

Do you bet totals often or only sides?

[stevenash]

Do you bet totals often or only sides?

Most of my plays are underdogs, or short faves of -120 or less.
Yeah, I like totals, keep an eye on quick changing weather conditions.
I like TT's better.

[billysink]

Drew Hutchison 4 pitch repertoire here

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcom.../2014&s_type=2

Note how well the Rays hit those 4 pitches here

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

The Rays are plus hitters as a team against all 4 pitches. Don't see that too often.

Tampa team total is @4 +104. Some pretty good value there

[stevenash]

Drew Hutchison 4 pitch repertoire here

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcom.../2014&s_type=2

Note how well the Rays hit those 4 pitches here

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

The Rays are plus hitters as a team against all 4 pitches. Don't see that too often.

Tampa team total is @4 +104. Some pretty good value there

I'm on Rays and Rox myself.

[dlunc3]

I'm on Rays and Rox myself.

you a fan of the -1 bet? doesnt seem like a bad option on tb tonight

[billysink]

I'm on Rays and Rox myself.

Yes I have the Rox FF @-.5 for +116 and thought the best way to realize value in the Rays matchup was to eliminate a side @ +104

[Sixla]

what is your Rays play Nash? GL today

[stevenash]

^
It's not posted, I have a small play at 5D, my posted play (Rox) is my strongest.
I like Wilson too, but can't lay the wood.

[stevenash]

Yes I have the Rox FF @-.5 for +116 and thought the best way to realize value in the Rays matchup was to eliminate a side @ +104

Yeah, bad start, long way to go though.

[stevenash]

OK Eovaldi puked up his 2-0 lead, Rox 2 in the fourth, still batting and looking for more.

Waiting on Hutch to puke up his lead now for ya Sink, he's got it him too.

[stevenash]

you a fan of the -1 bet?

Not really.

[jameski999]

Can't even move the runner over!

[stevenash]

Back to even

Rockies bats score three, thought they'd score more, that drops up to dead even at 2-2

[KawadaKicks17]

Last season or two I often used a website someone linked on the forum I usually post on.

It was sort of like dailyfaceoff is for NHL and starting goalies except was for baseball and had more stats, it'd list starting pitchers and a big rectangle of stats for each game. The bottom left of the rectangle would have the projected run total for the away team and the bottom right of the rectangle would have the projected run total for the home team. There were other stats within the rectangle though, one in particular, that I used to plug into my software. The site was free, etc...not shilling or anything.

It's just I forgot the name of the website. Does anyone know what I am speaking of? I figured mayhap someone here would know what I'm talking about.

[dlunc3]

any games catch your eye today nash?

[stevenash]

Nice matchup

any games catch your eye today nash?

I am going to try Reds tonight

Wacha v. Cingrani.
St Louis @ Cincinatti

Two up and coming kids, with talent coming out of their pores.

Wacha, better control, Cingrani, misses most bats, not the control artist that Wacha is, but the better strikeout man.

Selling point is Cingrani beat the Cards (with Beltran) twice very late last season, 8-3, 6-2 in a very heated three way pennant race. Kid has brass balls, and a million dollar arm.

Cingrani throws left, Cards are not a scary hitting team versus better LHP
Beltran and his LHP power stick has gone to NYC, Adams has a weak stick v. LHP, Wong can't hurt you, Holliday and Craig can.

Wacha faced the Reds once last season, was also sharp.

Following reasons is why I am on the Reds tonight.

I am getting +110 on the home team where the home team should be, in my eyes, -113 or so.

I think Cingrani is actually the better pitcher, now before you guys jump ugly on me, and say, "Nasher, did you see Wacha last season" (answer is yes, he was terrific too) I think Cingrani's stuff is more electric, I am not saying Wacha is crap, he is not, he is going to be big time too. I do say Wacha has better contol.

Both lineups in the middle can hurt you, Reds with Votto, Cards with Craig and Holliday.
Have you seen Holliday's bat speed lately, it has slowed down.

Make no mistake, this game is not for the faint hearted from a wagering standpoint, it's not a play for everybody, I like the hometeam in this spot getting +110, the 'x' factor being Hamilton on top, if he gets on, he's beyond disruptive, another 4K game out of the dynamo is not acceptable, the other 'x' factor is the 3-4 hitters for the Cards, if TC can handle those two, the rest should take care of itself.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO TAIL

Reds, +110 3*

[2daBank]

I preferred the under to a side in Cincy. I have no doubt cards will have trouble scoring, that said on Monday Cincy looked to continue playing the same shit baseball w runners on that plagued them last season and wacha has shown time and again he understands how to pitch out of trouble. Homerism aside If we talking another close low scoring gm I don't think u getting enough to back Cincy as these teams polar opposites when it comes to executing the little things that win tight gms.. No side for me tho cause unless they facing Kershaw I don't bet cards vs lefties, just don't think getting enough to fade them here.. Gl nasher

[stevenash]

Last season or two I often used a website someone linked on the forum I usually post on.

It was sort of like dailyfaceoff is for NHL and starting goalies except was for baseball and had more stats, it'd list starting pitchers and a big rectangle of stats for each game. The bottom left of the rectangle would have the projected run total for the away team and the bottom right of the rectangle would have the projected run total for the home team. There were other stats within the rectangle though, one in particular, that I used to plug into my software. The site was free, etc...not shilling or anything.

It's just I forgot the name of the website. Does anyone know what I am speaking of? I figured mayhap someone here would know what I'm talking about.

There are a couple of such websites, I too can not recall the url's, in time I can dig them up.

[2daBank]

Nice hit w Cincy. We shoulda parlayed our plays on this one!

[stevenash]

Hamburger alert:

HAMBURGER ALERT:
Roenis Elias

Seattle Mariners start a left handed career minor leaguer (Roenis Elias) that has never pitched in an AAA game in his life, no less a MLB game.

So, I do what I usually do, put on my research cap, and start investigating.

My conclusion:
This is the best Seattle has?
His across the board minor league numbers are I wouldn't say brutal, but you can see brutal from there.
They aren't very good.

3 years in the bush leagues overall 1.27 WH/IP and an ERA of 3.62 just isn't getting it done.
How is this guy getting a start in the show?

Last season in the Southern (AA) league, where pitching usually outshines hitting, Elias posted a 6 win, 11 loss season with a 1.25 WH/IP and a 3.18 ERA, mediocre at very best and that's a stretch.

OK, I had to go to the Brooks site to get the skinny on his arsenal, this is what Brooks has to say.

Roenis Elias has thrown 111 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2014, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph) and Curve (79mph), also mixing in aChange (85mph) and Sinker (92mph).

Know what they do in the show to 92 mph four seamers? They crush it.

He faces Oakland tonight, and the meat of that order Cespedes, Donaldson had their way with ordinary LHP's last season, the two of them each hit 11 homers off of lefties last season, Cespedes v. LHP last season 45-161 .280/.350/.516, and Donaldson an eye popping 59-176 .320/.409/.580

The line is a very reasonable Oakland, at home, -129, and even though Oakland starts Chavez (who will never see a Cy Young award himself) this has to be the softest spot he'll ever find himself in.

I am not making this a play, I probably won't, I may, but I usually stay away from these types, but Oakland, with the (on paper) better starter, and the way the middle of their order treats lefties, should bludgeon this hamburger, on paper anyway.

I'll watch the line movement, it's sitting at -129 now, you can get 7.5 -105 on the over too at 5D, I may go that way too, or not.

Just putting it out there for all of you.

[GiveMeaBJ]

HAMBURGER ALERT:
Roenis Elias

Seattle Mariners start a left handed career minor leaguer (Roenis Elias) that has never pitched in an AAA game in his life, no less a MLB game.

So, I do what I usually do, put on my research cap, and start investigating.

My conclusion:
This is the best Seattle has?
His across the board minor league numbers are I wouldn't say brutal, but you can see brutal from there.
They aren't very good.

3 years in the bush leagues overall 1.27 WH/IP and an ERA of 3.62 just isn't getting it done.
How is this guy getting a start in the show?

Last season in the Southern (AA) league, where pitching usually outshines hitting, Elias posted a 6 win, 11 loss season with a 1.25 WH/IP and a 3.18 ERA, mediocre at very best and that's a stretch.

OK, I had to go to the Brooks site to get the skinny on his arsenal, this is what Brooks has to say.

Roenis Elias has thrown 111 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system in 2014, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph) and Curve (79mph), also mixing in aChange (85mph) and Sinker (92mph).

Know what they do in the show to 92 mph four seamers? They crush it.

He faces Oakland tonight, and the meat of that order Cespedes, Donaldson had their way with ordinary LHP's last season, the two of them each hit 11 homers off of lefties last season, Cespedes v. LHP last season 45-161 .280/.350/.516, and Donaldson an eye popping 59-176 .320/.409/.580

The line is a very reasonable Oakland, at home, -129, and even though Oakland starts Chavez (who will never see a Cy Young award himself) this has to be the softest spot he'll ever find himself in.

I am not making this a play, I probably won't, I may, but I usually stay away from these types, but Oakland, with the (on paper) better starter, and the way the middle of their order treats lefties, should bludgeon this hamburger, on paper anyway.

I'll watch the line movement, it's sitting at -129 now, you can get 7.5 -105 on the over too at 5D, I may go that way too, or not.

Just putting it out there for all of you.

Thanks man good info. Couldn't find much good info on this kid.

[stevenash]

Nice hit w Cincy. We shoulda parlayed our plays on this one!

Thanks, yes, the game handicapped itself really, Cingrani edging Wacha at home in a low scoring affair.
I don't want to make too many wagers in week 1, so I opted for the + money option, getting +110 on thes side, as opposed to laying -106 on the total (5D reduced juice)

If you bet them both straight up, 1* each, you make 200 for you 200 outlay
If you bet them in a 1* parlay, you make 208.11 for your 100 dollar outlay.
Help me out here, I don't know math, what is the better value?

[stevenash]

Rockin' a total as my afternoon play

Game went as expected last night, cashed on the Reds and Cingrani for 3*

YTD 3-2 +3.3*

Going to rock the over 7.5 total in the Reds/Cards game.

At first glance, when you hear Homer Bailey v. Lance Lynn, you think, "ah, good old pitching gem"
Dig a little you'll find Bailey has a tweaked groin, and may not be that effective today, keep digging and you'll learn that Homer Bailey isn't really that good, but when he's on, he's electric, but against ordinary line ups.
His lifetime numbers are 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WH/IP, those are pedestrian type numbers.

Cards own Bailey, crush him, the current dugout lifetime is 51-162 .315/.366/.531
The .366 (oba) translates into a little over a baserunner an inning, how do you score runs? Simple, get on base.
Yaddy owns Bailey, Doc Holliday owns Bailey, Carpenter is 10 for 16 lifetime for the love of God off of Homer.
You don't think Carp doesn't sport a woody everytime he faces Bailey?

Then you got Lance Lynn on the flip side, he's pretty good, right?
Well yeah, if you go by won loss record he's amazing, 34-18 lifetime.
But..... wins don't tell the story, look at all the run support the Cards gave him in those 34 wins?
Closer look at the 3.82 ERA and a 1.29 WH/IP say he is hittalbe and like Bailey, allows baserunners.

Like the Cards sticks versus Bailey, the Reds bats club Lynn.
Reds dugout is 26 for 89 lifetime against Lynn .292
Here's the numbers that screams at you.
Lynn on base percentage against, or WH/IP if you will when pitching to the Reds is a very high .369.
37 percent of all Reds batters in the past have reached base, more than one an inning doing the math.

For the reasons I just detailed, plus the fact I feel the hitters will start to catch up with the pitchers starting this weekend I will wager ....

2* -105 5D reduced juice over 7.5

Good luck today fellas.

[JonEJet]

Really enjoy reading your stuff

[2daBank]

Like the over in Cincy as well..

[Monitor-Tan]

Gl like the over on that game the cards/reds game as well

[Big Bear]

Bailey is overrated IMO Cardinals ML for me

[2daBank]

Bailey is overrated IMO Cardinals ML for me

Lynn overrated as well bud. Numbers a little deceiving as nasher was pointing out.

[Emancipator]

Game went as expected last night, cashed on the Reds and Cingrani for 3*

YTD 3-2 +3.3*

Going to rock the over 7.5 total in the Reds/Cards game.

At first glance, when you hear Homer Bailey v. Lance Lynn, you think, "ah, good old pitching gem"
Dig a little you'll find Bailey has a tweaked groin, and may not be that effective today, keep digging and you'll learn that Homer Bailey isn't really that good, but when he's on, he's electric, but against ordinary line ups.
His lifetime numbers are 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WH/IP, those are pedestrian type numbers.

Cards own Bailey, crush him, the current dugout lifetime is 51-162 .315/.366/.531
The .366 (oba) translates into a little over a baserunner an inning, how do you score runs? Simple, get on base.
Yaddy owns Bailey, Doc Holliday owns Bailey, Carpenter is 10 for 16 lifetime for the love of God off of Homer.
You don't think Carp doesn't sport a woody everytime he faces Bailey?

Then you got Lance Lynn on the flip side, he's pretty good, right?
Well yeah, if you go by won loss record he's amazing, 34-18 lifetime.
But..... wins don't tell the story, look at all the run support the Cards gave him in those 34 wins?
Closer look at the 3.82 ERA and a 1.29 WH/IP say he is hittalbe and like Bailey, allows baserunners.

Like the Cards sticks versus Bailey, the Reds bats club Lynn.
Reds dugout is 26 for 89 lifetime against Lynn .292
Here's the numbers that screams at you.
Lynn on base percentage against, or WH/IP if you will when pitching to the Reds is a very high .369.
37 percent of all Reds batters in the past have reached base, more than one an inning doing the math.

For the reasons I just detailed, plus the fact I feel the hitters will start to catch up with the pitchers starting this weekend I will wager ....

2* -105 5D reduced juice over 7.5

Good luck today fellas.

On it as well, BOL.

[kaijunn]

Rain delay...

[2daBank]

Rain delay...

Expected.. Only reason I didn't go bigger cause hate getting involved in totals w delays. Cards broadcasters sounded pretty confident they would get it in tho, not that they have a clue..

[KawadaKicks17]

3pm EST they are optimistic about announcing a start time.

[Emancipator]

Should be able to get at least an hour in of play before, they are delayed again from the looks of it. Going to depend on how long it takes for them to get started. Hopefully the scattered stuff out in Indiana peter out.

[crazykind]

Good Analysis on the young M's pitcher Elias, there are many unknowns with him and nothing encouraging stands out from his minor lg stats...that said, its harsh to call a 25 yr old kid a career minor leaguer

I saw him throw 5 innings last week in a spring game. The competition wasn't great but he did toss 5 scoreless and featured a nasty curve ball that is definitely major lg caliber. What earned him this start over young arms like Maurer and Beavan (decent minor lg stats, deer in headlights on major lg bump)and retreaded vets like Baker and Wolf is his moxie - the kid actually looks like he belongs out there. When you were once on a raft in the dark trying to get out of Cuba and into Mexico, a big league game isn't scary i guess...

The A's patient approach will test this resolve, no doubt, and we will know a little more about him after tonight.

Good thread here Steve Nash, I love reading about baseball from people who love the game like i do =)