Mavericks ML, OSU -3, disagreeing with you on the EDM game. i went ANA PL. GL to us tho
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Wow.....F me. I never actually bet GS ML or the Raps +3....I have no idea how or why.
That's absolutely retarded.....I was 100% I bet those games before I even posted the teaser.Comment -
Adding:
I hate not placing wagers.....win or lose.220343884-1 1/3/14 8:07pm $50.00 $60.00 Pending 1/3/14 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 56 Calgary Flames +120* <small>vs</small> Tampa Bay Lightning 220343808-1 1/3/14 8:06pm $51.00 $50.00 Pending 1/3/14 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 811 Memphis Grizzlies +4½ -102* <small>vs</small> Denver Nuggets Comment -
Is that all for the night D2D? Picks always appreciated.Comment -
Ohio State ML +120 live betting. Also have +3.5.Comment -
nice card tonight D2D, without any of those frustration-inviting types of bets: NBA totals/negative-spreads (i'll make sure i have a loaded gun handy next time i place one of those fukkrs)
with money-lines u know teams are trying to win...can't say the same thing about "trying to win by ____ points"...
(same is true for plus-points bets and "trying to come within ___ points", of course...but when your dog fails to cover it doesn't seem near as much of an injustice)
as for totals...Murphy's Law just seems to control the amount of garbage points to JUST fukk up your specific total betLast edited by fitguy67; 01-04-14, 12:41 AM.Comment -
If Ohio gets ahead at any point I am going to cross it up and my goal will be to cancel out my bet. Braxton Miller is a little off and now he has it in his head that his should is not working. I do not like them to cover here....their D is in trouble, even with that safety.
Gross that we just hit the upright on a FG attempt in the other game....that kick looked good to me the whole way!Comment -
1 unit play on the Jazz. More talent, learning to play together. The worry is that if Gasol comes back and plays out of his mind and that the rest of the guys (Meeks, etc) all of a sudden show up with a ton of pride.
Getting points here....is pretty tough to pass up. Small play though....
220378411-1 1/3/14 10:18pm $51.00 $50.00 Pending 1/3/14 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 813 Utah Jazz +3 -102* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers Comment -
Braxton Miller should be ashamed of himself. All game he walked around, rubbing his arm, poor body language, etc. His team game him EVERY chance to win this, but he didn't do a thing....and I mean a thing. His team ran the ball very well, his D got him the ball when it needed to....
Did anyone else notice that he never threw the ball above his head? His passes were hitting linemen, being batted down and ending up on the ground....they are making a huge deal about Miller, but IMO that is all for TV.Comment -
Anyway, a small win (.5 unit) for the night. Not great, but not terrible either.
The Oiler's game was another pitiful effort....I liked the way it set up, but every single game in the NHL tonight was won by the favorite by 2 or more goals....how often does that happen?
If the Jazz can come back (they won't) then it will be a 2.5 unit win for us on the night instead of .5Comment -
Our first ATP pick of the year. Monfils has been on fire and Nadal has been giving up sets all over the place....but Nadal is a scrapper and he will not go down without a major fight (and yes, i still think he gets it done here, but I do care for any of the odds).
220443484-1 1/4/14 3:21am $122.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 10:00am ATP Tennis 203 R.Nadal Games Won/G.Monfils Games Won Over 22½ -122* Comment -
And for tomorrow.....weather should not be a factor at all (just below zero, barely any wind).....this isn't one of those 'too good to be true lines', but IMO this is going to be a shoot out. I don't think the NO defense will be able to stop McCoy and frankly I see this game going over early....the funny thing is, is Graham can get off of the line and Pierre Thomas plays and is effective (and he could be) then NO can still win this game....and will ensure the over comes in.
220443771-1 1/4/14 3:27am $151.50 $150.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:10pm Reduced Football 103 New Orleans Saints/Philadelphia Eagles Over 53½ -101* Comment -
Another garbage night for me - seems whatever I've been winning in college ftball just goes down the drain with NBA. And a failed 2 pt conversion and missed PAT killed my middle in the OSU game by .5. Nothing like putting up 1 side of juice to hit both sides.
How do you feel about your NBA sense coming back? If not for the missed games, I think you would have had a pretty good day in the NBA. I just can not seem to get a hang on some of the teams that I normally autobet on. Young teams like NO, HOU, UTA have been killing me lately.Comment -
I am actually feeling great. Nothing huge, but 4 winning days in a row have me feeling like things are starting to get back on track.
The NBA is going to settle down now, defenses are going to get turned up, totals will start to make sense again and frankly it is around this time of the year that we can really see where some of these teams are. The Lakers, Houston, The Nets and OKC were among my best teams last year and this year they have been a nightmare for me.....but it is coming around. Until this past Friday if anyone had just bet 'OVER' in every game they would have hit 80% on over 40 games....that will end now that the holidays have past, lines have readjusted upwards and coaches start gearing their teams up for playoff runs, playoff positioning, etc.
For me to be in the red in the NBA is so damn weird.....but I am sure it is turning. Keep the faith.
D2DComment -
Two more VERY early plays for tomorrow.....I like both a lot, but as it is so early in the year I think it is best to stick to 1 unit wagers here.
IN the Granollers match, both players had tough Q final matches and in fact both barely made it through....now, the common thinking here would be 'two highly competitive players, very equally matched both in h2h and in ranking, among other things, both fought hard and want this, etc....but my thinking is this:
Whoever breaks first, especially if they win the first set by two breaks, will win the second set going away. Even if set #1 goes to a tie break, there is a good chance we see a 6-2 or 6-3 second set for an easy under.
IN the other match we see Canadian Pospisil. He is playing well, his ranking has jumped up hugely in the last year, his serve is as good as it has ever been and it will give Wawrinka fits. Wawrinka never plays well early in the year, he had a first round bye and his last two opponents have not been of the highest order, PLUS his last match was his 300th match win on tour and he has been the talk of the town. I think he is feeling satisfied with how he is playing and he will find it difficult to put the young Canadian away easily. Wawrinka may still get this done, but it won't be easy and 3.5 games sounds awesome to me.
Good luck everyone.
220445926-1 1/4/14 4:57am $57.50 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 6:30am ATP Tennis 323 M.Granollers Games Won/E.Roger-Vasselin Games Won Under 22½ -115* 220445879-1 1/4/14 4:55am $50.00 $51.50 Pending 1/4/14 7:45am ATP Tennis 306 V.Pospisil Games Won +3½ +103* <small>vs</small> S.Wawrinka Games Won Comment -
And an early game from the World Juniors.
Russia has a solid team and Zadorov and Grogorenko looked very good, but their defense is not strong enough and even though they may have the best young goalie in the world, I doubt he will be enough to stop this crew of Swedish 19 year old's. Too much size, too much skill, and they will be playing harder. Russia was not supposed to be here (even though I thought they would beat the US) and they will be content. I think Sweden is destined to win this event, possibly without breaking too big a sweat.220446376-1 1/4/14 5:23am $140.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 9:00am International Hockey 502 Sweden U20 (1st 60 min) -½ -140* <small>vs</small> Russia U20 (1st 60 min)
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D2D, Clippers +8 today is looking really good to me. What do you think? Clippers dominated the Spurs in LA in December as underdogs. Can't imagine passing up 8 points here.Comment -
Like Canyk says, tough game to cap. I would think it may be a game to take a chance on, as teams usually play up the first game or two where they lose their star....and you absolutely know that the public will be pounding the Spurs....but I am going to stay away for now anyway.
IN other news, it has been an awesome start for us this morning:
- Sweden came through in a very close game and closed out the Russians
- Gael Monfils, after losing the first set to Nadal in an embarrassing fashion, came back and won set two in a tie break to win our big tennis bet with the over 22.5
- we lost our 1 unit bet on the Granollers match....both players came out to play and took it to three sets
- Now, this one feels like a loss....Pospisil was down 6-4, 5-5 and all he needed to do was hold serve and even if he lost in the tiebreak we would have still booked the win....and for some reason the kid retired. Quite disappointing.
Anyway.....up 3 units with lot's of action to come....should be a fun day!!Comment -
Some new plays and a recap of the NFL games we have out there:
Quite shocking.....I am on a ton of home teams, laying small juice tonight in the NHL. That's VERY rare for me....and I like it.220484803-1 1/4/14 12:11pm $60.00 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 6 New York Islanders -120* <small>vs</small> Carolina Hurricanes 220484803-2 1/4/14 12:11pm $60.00 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 8 Florida Panthers -120* <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators 220484803-3 1/4/14 12:11pm $62.50 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 12 Toronto Maple Leafs -125* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers 220484803-4 1/4/14 12:11pm $140.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 14 Montreal Canadiens -140* <small>vs</small> Ottawa Senators 220484803-5 1/4/14 12:11pm $100.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 15 Philadelphia Flyers/Phoenix Coyotes Over 5½ +100* 220484803-6 1/4/14 12:11pm $62.50 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 22 Dallas Stars -125* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings 220484803-7 1/4/14 12:11pm $140.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 24 Los Angeles Kings -140* <small>vs</small> Vancouver Canucks 220483788-1 1/4/14 12:09pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Cleveland Cavaliers +7 -105* <small>vs</small> Brooklyn Nets 220483788-2 1/4/14 12:09pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 507 Atlanta Hawks +4½ -105* <small>vs</small> Chicago Bulls 220483788-3 1/4/14 12:09pm $52.50 $50.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 509 Oklahoma City Thunder +2 -105* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Timberwolves 220443771-1 1/4/14 3:27am $151.50 $150.00 Pending 1/4/14 8:10pm Reduced Football 103 New Orleans Saints/Philadelphia Eagles Over 53½ -101* 220443484-1 1/4/14 3:21am $122.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 10:00am ATP Tennis 203 R.Nadal Games Won/G.Monfils Games Won Over 22½ -122* 220299694-1 1/3/14 2:16pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 4:40pm Reduced Football 101 Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts Over 46 -105* 220299694-2 1/3/14 2:16pm $100.00 $100.00 Pending 1/4/14 4:40pm Reduced Football 102 Indianapolis Colts -1 +100* <small>vs</small> Kansas City Chiefs Comment -
I am kinda hooked on
OKC +8 and Clippers +12.5 in a parlay.
I do not think Spurs will own them that badly even though there is an injury on Clippers.Comment -
IND ML (+120)
HOUvsVAN under 52.5 (-110)
BOS PL (+145)
what do you think of a strategy based around, usually 3 plays, consisting of 1-2 +ev bets and the other bet or bets never being over (-140) ?Comment -
sounds like a GREAT idea for a new thread...
as long as you burn sufficient brain cells on each play you make to satisfy yourself that the elusive "true" probability of the bet cashing is higher than that implied by the price you're booking at...AND you always keep bet-sizes a small enough % of the bank to withstand the inevitable slumps...THEN it doesn't matter if book prices have a + or a - sign in front of them, they are all +expected-value/+ev...
any format (=further conditions/constraints you apply beyond these basics) that you are comfortable with--such as two dogs + one small-fave bet--is fine, and might be quite helpful to guide your efforts...playing each day "freestyle" with "fresh eyes" is more taxing than having a small number of specific-type bets you're looking for to complete your cardLast edited by fitguy67; 01-04-14, 02:20 PM.Comment -
Honestly, I could not have said it better myself FG. I was already formulating my answer when I read yours.
If this structure helps you, then it could be helpful....but there may be days that you cannot tailor the games to your structure and be happy with it.
I myself could not do it, if I had to fit something into my game plan every day, look for specific days, I would feel constrained.
What about the days where I see obvious (to me) +EV plays that I am leaving on the table? What if I see a day where I only find one +EV play and that I am stretching the other two just to make my card.
Like I said....if you need something like this, it may help, BUT....and this is a huge
it just isn't for me.
I would LOVE to see a thread using this to see how you would do!Comment -
Ok, I have to assume all of the big money in the Indy game is going onto Kansas City? To have a line slide 4 points (even around the zero axis) seems crazy to me.
As I already have Indy -1 at +100 I am going to add Indy ML which is now up to +110.
My assumption can only be wrong if the books know something and are trying to get the public on Indy, because from what I see the bets are split quite evenly. My problem with that is that nothing has changed here....I still like this matchup in almost each and every way.
Maybe I am a square, but I think that Luck gets this done.....the kid is just a winner, they are at home, KC has looked mediocre at best since their great start (against almost no competition)....for KC to win here Charles will need to be at least as great as always and the KC defense will need to contribute to the score sheet with a few turnovers, a pick six, or some crazy good field position.
I also see this game still going over, but as the line has shot up it isn't as appealing for me to double up.
GL today guys:
220526475-1 1/4/14 2:59pm $100.00 $110.00 Pending 1/4/14 4:40pm Reduced Football 102 Indianapolis Colts +110* <small>vs</small> Kansas City Chiefs Comment -
so this makes it Indi the POD along with the over in NO-PHI?
D2D I would like to ask your opinion about a teaser : OKC + 7,5 and Portland (vs 76ers) -7?Comment -
Portland tends to blow weak teams out, BUT I do not like this situation based on their last few games. This could easily be a game that they squeak out 111-108 or something. Not for me.Comment -
GL D2D. I am on a few of those nhl plays myself.Comment -
You looking at any live betting on the colts? Nice ML and spreads.Comment
