is this a good middling idea?

**Quarm** · 10-05-05, 10:50 PM

probably not, cause -4.5 on pin is +101.
its not that hard to find even bets on Pin, so there could be better odds for middling if im not wrong.

**BuddyBear** · 10-05-05, 10:59 PM

This is what I am thinking...since SIA has limits I can only play a certain amount and plus i do this recreationally as it is so I don't want to invest too much as I've already been burned with what i thought was a middling opportunity.

NC STATE +4.5 $315/300

Georgia Tech -4 $309/300

Let's say I lose, I'd lose anywhere between $9-$15

I don't think that is too big a price to pay for a number like 4????

Anyone else think the same thing

**BuddyBear** · 10-05-05, 11:03 PM

Nevermind now...Pinny just put GT -4 (-111)...Man the lines moves super quick at Pinnacle. Who knows, come tomorrow morning it could be back there or at even better number.

Pinny must be monitoring my posts!

I am not worried about SIA. Line movement there is glacial.

**rm18** · 10-05-05, 11:03 PM

I don't think so, and now pinny is -105 juice, with the -103 you would have to hit the bet one out of 25 to break even, but if you have any opinion pick one, it would be like getting a game at -102 or -101 juice on both sides.

**Santo** · 10-05-05, 11:06 PM

I don't think the chance of landing on 4 covers 8 cents juice...

Lands on 4 approx 4.2% in NCAA.. Assume $2000 stake

EV:

One side wins: ($2000- $38.42) * 0.958 = 1879.19
Lands on 4: ($1000 + $1952.38) * 0.042 = 123.99

So your expected value is $2003.19, or a 0.1% return

I think that's right.. the numbers slightly out of date for 4.2 but it's more or less accurate.

**David** · 10-05-05, 11:06 PM

Matchbook has GT -4 (even). It's about -102 after commission.

**Ganchrow** · 10-05-05, 11:17 PM

For an arbitrage opportunity to exist, the probability of hitting the 4 would need to be greater than 3.86%.

If you believe this to be the case then go for it.

FWIW, the probability of hitting the 4 in the NFL is only around 3%.

**Santo** · 10-05-05, 11:25 PM

ganchrow: This is NCAA.. I have the 4 slightly higher at around 4.2%. I have the figure at 2.7% in the NFL.

**pags11** · 10-06-05, 03:09 AM

it wouldn't be worth it to me...