While I Would Never Recommend an Over in the NFL with a total over 50...

**leetreaper** · 09-18-13, 02:54 PM

That actually doesn't make sense. The line is there for a reason, I'd rather play over 50 then 37 for instance.

**SBR_John** · 09-18-13, 03:32 PM

The Chiefs are still...well, the Chiefs. Phily gets their points but it takes two to get to 50(btw there are couple of 51's out there). I know the chiefs are improved but on the road in Phily? Uh no; Under.

**Smoke** · 09-18-13, 03:36 PM

Walker ginsu sharp

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

That actually doesn't make sense. The line is there for a reason, I'd rather play over 50 then 37 for instance.

Sure it does, I'd rather pass if I lean to an Over in a game with a high total. Too much needs to go right, i.e. both teams have to show up.

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

That actually doesn't make sense. The line is there for a reason, I'd rather play over 50 then 37 for instance.

And also the total itself shouldn't sway your decision either as you are implying here, the Over is close to 50% in all games with a total of 50 and close to 50% in games with a total of 34.

**Renegades** · 09-18-13, 05:24 PM

All of the bs is already baked into the line. Kc could make this game slow and methodical. Although I thk reid will be more aggressive to show phily he still knows a thing or two

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Renegades

All of the bs is already baked into the line.

It always is Renegades, it always is. That's why it's not as easy as simply knee-jerking to the Over just because a total is 50. Although I lean Over here and won't play it, I have played plenty of Unders in games with lofty totals like this.

**JR007** · 09-18-13, 06:26 PM

you need a lot of things to go right with totals of 50 or higher, no field goals, no clock eating drives, fairly balanced scoring, no penalties, no turnovers......

**rm18** · 09-18-13, 06:32 PM

The Chiefs have only given up 1 TD all year though this is a tough short week matchup 27-17 Chiefs

**ChalkyDog** · 09-18-13, 06:33 PM

A lot of people like KC in this game, yet there seems to be a fear of KC helping this game go over 50?

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

A lot of people like KC in this game, yet there seems to be a fear of KC helping this game go over 50?

Not I.

**pologq** · 09-18-13, 07:02 PM

i like KC and i fully expect both teams to score at least 3 tds. the chiefs want to score for their coach to get the win and the eagles are good for 21 points with their fast offense. i think a good bet is a 7 pt teaser on the chiefs and the over.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-18-13, 07:06 PM

the market is finally adjusting.

if you noticed OVERS have been hitting at a remarkable rate.

numbers like 42.5 are now turning into constant 48s. the pass happy league has made it this way. more passes = not only more big plays BUT more incompletions which leads to 3 and outs which leads to #1, stretching the field and the DBs, which opens up huge holes for the run game, then huge passing plays for completions later in the game. #2 more 3 and outs = clock stoppage. #3 clock stoppage + 3 and outs = more offensive possessions.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-18-13, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by pologq

i like KC and i fully expect both teams to score at least 3 tds. the chiefs want to score for their coach to get the win and the eagles are good for 21 points with their fast offense. i think a good bet is a 7 pt teaser on the chiefs and the over.

**leetreaper** · 09-18-13, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

And also the total itself shouldn't sway your decision either as you are implying here, the Over is close to 50% in all games with a total of 50 and close to 50% in games with a total of 34.

I'm pretty sure that the lines with high totals went more over than under in EVERY sport, for example Cubs with 12-13 total, Denver/GS with 220 etc...can't say for sure about NFL but remember Den/NE/NO/GB high totals went over very frequently...

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

I'm pretty sure that the lines with high totals went more over than under in EVERY sport, for example Cubs with 12-13 total, Denver/GS with 220 etc...can't say for sure about NFL but remember Den/NE/NO/GB high totals went over very frequently...

It's an illusion, if it was that easy, everyone would only bet the Over on high totals and quit their day jobs.

**wagerjunkie** · 09-18-13, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It's an illusion, if it was that easy, everyone would only bet the Over on high totals and quit their day jobs.

for the most part

**leetreaper** · 09-18-13, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

It's an illusion, if it was that easy, everyone would only bet the Over on high totals and quit their day jobs.

It's not but i don't want to dig all the data...

**LT Profits** · 09-18-13, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

It's not but i don't want to dig all the data...

Since 2000, the UNDER is 107-99-2 in NFL games with totals of 50+.

**boeing power** · 09-18-13, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Since 2000, the UNDER is 107-99-2 in NFL games with totals of 50+.

The game has changed a lot in 13 years.

what are the stats for last 3 years?

**smitch124** · 09-18-13, 09:34 PM

Well, not sure stats going back to 2000 apply here. The oddsmakers may be having trouble setting totals with the new offenses in the NFL. We will see.

**agharah1** · 09-18-13, 09:35 PM

Chip Kelly is going to break Fantasy Football.

**Monitor-Tan** · 09-18-13, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

Chip Kelly is going to break Fantasy Football.

Along with 2 other guys on his own team

**El Nino** · 09-18-13, 09:51 PM

According to Peter King, Chip Kelly is on pace to run 1 more play (1,080) than Andy Reid (1,079) ran last season. Granted, it's only 2 Weeks into the season. Everyone is blowing this pace and # of plays out of proportion. Wait until Vick starts going 3 and out in 45 seconds and the gassed defense keeps getting sent back out. 1,159 is the most number of plays a defense has ever faced in the NFL. The Eagles Defense has a real shot at breaking this record if Kelly doesn't adjust. Kelly already choked down the stretch in terms of play calling in the final 3 minutes of the Chargers game. I'm still trying to figure out why he was calling timeouts for the Chargers and given them additional shots to improve their FG range.

**Nick Papageorgio** · 09-18-13, 10:08 PM

Thinking unders personally. A smith and kc will sit on the ball for long methodical drives. I also think their D is very legit. Vick due for a rough one.

**etothep** · 09-18-13, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Nick Papageorgio

Thinking unders personally. A smith and kc will sit on the ball for long methodical drives. I also think their D is very legit. Vick due for a rough one.

Not sure there's a worse word to use when talking gambling

**Let's Go Rangers** · 09-18-13, 10:33 PM

Weather is gonna be perfect

Whenever I better an over like this ( and I already did ) teams have turnovers in the redzone, missed field goals....
TDs called back....
and the game lands short by a field goal

**frostno98** · 09-18-13, 10:33 PM

Chiefs got a good D. Andy Reid is conservative by nature and has Jamal Charles to pound the rock. Plus it's a Thursday game, teams offensively aren't as fast with just 3 days of rest.

**TwoWays** · 09-18-13, 10:35 PM

Any eagle game total this year below 60 pts is undervalued.

**hawley** · 09-18-13, 10:36 PM

Sorry, what was the point of this thread?

You wouldn't recommend the over but wouldn't bet the under?

That it?

**TwoWays** · 09-18-13, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by hawley

Sorry, what was the point of this thread?

You wouldn't recommend the over but wouldn't bet the under?

That it?

he makes like 20 "recommendations" a day. it's hard to take him serious.

**Gee** · 09-18-13, 10:44 PM

Is LT Profits the new Wanti?

Blunt pencil.

**Nick Papageorgio** · 09-18-13, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by etothep

Not sure there's a worse word to use when talking gambling

Not sure there is either! Lets face facts though, Vick never has been very consistent, then factor in a very tough KC D and it adds up to a possible off night.

**texhooper** · 09-18-13, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by Renegades

All of the bs is already baked into the line.

i have been reading and hearing this for years. "it's already factored into the line"...well, yes it is, and i think most people are aware that a line is not set with an ignorance of injuries, short prep time, etc. however, if you truly think everything is already factored into the line to the point where it's all 100% efficient, then why gamble? i'm not singling out renegades here, anyone can respond.

for instance, you could have easily...EASILY...said last week, "well brady has no one and it's a short week, they will have no chemistry (which everyone and their mother, brother, sister and uncle were saying in the media), and the jets shouldn't be such big dogs here." and the argument to that would be "well they've already factored that into the line". the point is you can say that about every single game to anyone's reason for taking anything, so i don't understand how you can rationalize gambling yourself. please explain.