While I Would Never Recommend an Over in the NFL with a total over 50...

**arpeggiomeister** · 09-18-13, 11:23 PM

I teased the over down to 41. Anything can and does happen but I am pretty happy with that position. We'll see how happy I am after tomorrow night.

**bigtymer56** · 09-19-13, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by Nick Papageorgio

Not sure there is either! Lets face facts though, Vick never has been very consistent, then factor in a very tough KC D and it adds up to a possible off night.

I'd be more worried about him making it through the game than being inconsistent. Dude takes some of the nastiest hits.

**The Kraken** · 09-19-13, 03:02 AM

LT = Lame Thread

**cankid** · 09-19-13, 04:32 AM

Ill take KC and the over

**capitalist pig** · 09-19-13, 05:55 AM

Im on the under 51 myself.

later

**LT Profits** · 09-19-13, 06:36 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Sorry, what was the point of this thread?

You wouldn't recommend the over but wouldn't bet the under?

That it?

And get discussion started on other views.

**LT Profits** · 09-19-13, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by The Kraken

LT = Lame Thread

Originally posted by LT Profits

And get discussion started on other views.

Seems to have served its purpose to me.

Notice I always try to start threads on prime time games even if I have no play on the game myself. Have to live up to my snazzy new title.

**LT Profits** · 09-19-13, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by boeing power

The game has changed a lot in 13 years.

what are the stats for last 3 years?

The problem there is the limited sample size, but since you asked, OVER is 40-37 since 2010, so not much going on on the surface. What IS going on though is the correction the books made after 2011.

Totals 50+ (Records are for the OVER)
2010: 4-4
2011: 18-11
2012: 15-20
2013: 3-2

Seems the opportunity came and went two years ago, although the bottom line is the small samples each year don't seem that relevant.

**PorkChop** · 09-19-13, 08:07 AM

If i like the over in a Thursday night game; ill wait and bet it live when ill get it at a better number

**Mocknroll** · 09-19-13, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

If i like the over in a Thursday night game; ill wait and bet it live when ill get it at a better number

Better hope this one doesn't start like the Eagles Skins game. 17 points in the first 6 minutes and any live over value is gone.

**LT Profits** · 09-19-13, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

If i like the over in a Thursday night game; ill wait and bet it live when ill get it at a better number

As Mochnroll said, not a given you will get a better number live.

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

If i like the over in a Thursday night game; ill wait and bet it live when ill get it at a better number

smart idea. you will find the value i'm sure, even though any total less than 60 pts for an eagle game this year is great value.

**jjgold** · 09-19-13, 11:25 AM

Great weather tonight
How does this stay under ??

The under bet is always the safe bet of course

**pavyracer** · 09-19-13, 11:55 AM

Thursday games were like 14-3 on the under last year. Someone research it.

**beerman2619** · 09-19-13, 01:27 PM

Over Hits By half

**bostonbruins** · 09-19-13, 01:32 PM

Take KC +3.5 and don't worry about the score , PHI defense is garbage , KC will shut down McCoy ...

**krk1030** · 09-19-13, 01:44 PM

If you like KC, just play the over because philly will score 30 no doubt.

**joco** · 09-19-13, 02:28 PM

I'm on the under

**PremiumPete83** · 09-19-13, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by bostonbruins

Take KC +3.5 and don't worry about the score , PHI defense is garbage , KC will shut down McCoy ...

What about DeSean if Flowers is out?

**tyloxx420** · 09-19-13, 02:45 PM

Under!

Like other have said, KC D is better than the past 2 games Eagles have faced (2 good CB's). KC runs the clock down while they chip away at yards. Eagles D doesn't have to cover a stud TE with their Linebackers (could possibly allow less 3rd down's converted), Short week, 2 Weeks of seeing how the eagles are playing with their fast paced offense (teams learn how to adjust to it after seeing it a few times).

To many Factors going towards the Under for me. I will stick with my Teaser KC/PHI Under 57 : Clemson -7

**2daBank** · 09-19-13, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

smart idea. you will find the value i'm sure, even though any total less than 60 pts for an eagle game this year is great value.

i made the number books would have to start making philly totals 56.5 before id shy away from playing the overs..that said i have a different thu night theory so understand why it lower than i would have made it for sunday..these thu night cash grabs are a joke and typically start slow, really hope this starts slow cause for 1 i always bet the 1st half under in this shit gm and 2 id love to get a lower number live..kc will play keep away early eating up all kinds of clock on offense and on d are playing a ton of dime, they wont get beat over the top and will force philly to stall out in the red zone... in general i agree until they jack up phi totals over is great just not on thu night ..

**k13** · 09-19-13, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by capitalist pig

Im on the under 51 myself.

later

Same here.

Let's make it ugly.

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 07:58 PM

who played the under and is shaking in their boots now. no offense by kc and they got 10 pts. too funny.

**hawley** · 09-19-13, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

And get discussion started on other views.

Didn't realise you were a mod

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 08:23 PM

my first look in at alex smith at kc. still the same guy who'd rather take the check dwon than take a shot down the field.

**bigblue74** · 09-19-13, 08:54 PM

Hey idiot what do u recommend now

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 08:58 PM

crazy. really looks like an under now. only the chiefs can squander so many possessions in + territory.

**Let's Go Rangers** · 09-19-13, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by Let's Go Rangers

Weather is gonna be perfect

Whenever I better an over like this ( and I already did ) teams have turnovers in the redzone, missed field goals....
TDs called back....
and the game lands short by a field goal

so predictable the game being played between the 20 yard line and then the drives stall.

Chiefs 3 for 13 on 3rd down

21 point 4th quarter just to fall short

**bigblue74** · 09-19-13, 09:55 PM

Hey how about some stock advice LT

**bostonbruins** · 09-19-13, 10:31 PM

congrats to KC backers needed this one to load up for the weekend

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 10:41 PM

congrats to under backers also, but that game was crazy. anyone betting under on this game must have lost their mind at least a dozen times.

**2daBank** · 09-19-13, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

congrats to under backers also, but that game was crazy. anyone betting under on this game must have lost their mind at least a dozen times.

Na.. Read plenty enough to believe kc would defend this well. Not to mention it thu thu night under city. All this does is set us up for more good numbers to play Philly overs later (just never on thu bro!)..

**TwoWays** · 09-19-13, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Na.. Read plenty enough to believe kc would defend this well. Not to mention it thu thu night under city. All this does is set us up for more good numbers to play Philly overs later (just never on thu bro!)..

wasn't referring to kc defense. was referring more to phila offensive follies that could have easily pushed game over if not for kc offensive ineptitude.

**LT Profits** · 09-20-13, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by bigblue74

Hey how about some stock advice LT

Huh? This was a perfect example why I never play the Over on high totals. Read Post 1, I had no official play so still 14-3 in NFL.

**TheMLBKing** · 09-20-13, 02:51 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not I.

LT Profits = best fade material on this forum. Get it while it's hot.