Tigers (Scherzer) vs. Bosox (Lester) - Under a No-Brainer?

[LT Profits]

Scherzer looks tempting as a tiny dog too as he again tries to become the only other pitcher besides Roger Clemens to begin a season 20-1. He comes off of his worst start of the year, I don't see him having two duds in a row. Guy has a 2.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .196 batting average allowed and 201 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 183.1 innings. It's a bit surprising that he is only seventh in the majors in FIP, 11th in xFIP and fourth in WAR, but the guy is still a stud. Still, Lester is in great form too, allowing three runs or less in five straight starts and in 10 of his last 11, including allowing two earned or less in four of those last five. The Under looks like the better play here, although I wouldn't argue with Scherzer at + odds.

[Smoke]

Well the over looked like a no brainer yesterday and look at the result

Also scherzer got rocked last start

[Big Bear]

2 of the most prolific offenses in the game and this guey says the under is a lock LMFAO

[LT Profits]

Also scherzer got rocked last start

I mentioned that, don't see him having two bad starts in a row.

[LT Profits]

2 of the most prolific offenses in the game and this guey says the under is a lock LMFAO

First, I never used the word L*** because there is no such thing, and second great pitching stops great hitting.

[Big Bear]

First, I never used the word L*** because there is no such thing, and second great pitching stops great hitting.

just kiddin with ya pal. Good luck

[BigDeem5]

Red Sox -104 opener was play

[TheMetsSuck]

have you looked at the batting averages these teams have vs those pitchers? You should probably make a habit of doing that before placing mlb wagers.

[LT Profits]

have you looked at the batting averages these teams have vs those pitchers? You should probably make a habit of doing that before placing mlb wagers.

Scherzer's numbers vs. Boston before this year are irrelevant because he is just coming into his own this season, and he only start vs. the Red Sox was fine - 7 IP, 2R 6H 6K 0 BB. Yes I saw Lester got hit his only start vs. Detroit, but he is in the best form he has been all year right now and besides, if Scherzer does his nomal thing, Lester could afford to allow a few runs with the games still staying 'under'. Plus Boston bullpen has a 1.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP last 10 games.

[stevenash]

have you looked at the batting averages these teams have vs those pitchers? You should probably make a habit of doing that before placing mlb wagers.

I have

BOSTON RED SOX CAREER STATISTICS VS. MAX SCHERZER
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mike Carp	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	.400	.500	.400	.900
Stephen Drew	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jacoby Ellsbury	9	5	1	0	1	5	3	1	.556	.667	1.000	1.667
Jonny Gomes	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ryan Kalish	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
John McDonald	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Will Middlebrooks	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mike Napoli	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.111	.111	.111	.222
Daniel Nava	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333
David Ortiz	13	7	1	0	3	6	2	2	.538	.600	1.308	1.908
Dustin Pedroia	13	3	0	0	2	5	0	1	.231	.231	.692	.923
David Ross	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	12	5	0	0	1	2	0	4	.417	.417	.667	1.083
Shane Victorino	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.500	.833
Totals	91	28	4	0	7	18	6	24	.308	.351	.582	.933

DETROIT TIGERS CAREER STATISTICS VS. JON LESTER
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Alex Avila	6	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	.500	.500	.667	1.167
Miguel Cabrera	16	10	2	0	1	3	5	0	.625	.714	.938	1.652
Andy Dirks	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	.500	.667	2.000	2.667
Prince Fielder	12	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	.250	.308	.250	.558
Torii Hunter	19	10	3	0	0	0	0	2	.526	.526	.684	1.211
Omar Infante	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Austin Jackson	10	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	.200	.273	.200	.473
Victor Martinez	10	6	0	1	1	3	2	0	.600	.667	1.100	1.767
Brayan Pena	14	6	1	0	0	4	0	2	.429	.429	.500	.929
Jhonny Peralta	25	7	1	0	2	4	5	7	.280	.400	.560	.960
Ramon Santiago	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Matt Tuiasosopo	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000	.333	.000	.333
Danny Worth	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Totals	126	50	8	1	5	18	17	20	.397	.465	.595	1.061

And since when was Lester really good?
He's got a 3.99 ERA and a 1.31 WH/IP
Which is identical to his lifetime numbers of 3.79 ERA and a 1.31 WH/IP

Lester is what he is, a little better than a mediocre starter with a little better than mediocre numbers with a nice K/9 ratio.
That is what Lester is.

[rnunez91]

miggy OWNS Lester.. Boston backers better hope hes not in this lineup.. Because that tori/Cabrera duo tht owns Lester might just breakout for a huge inning

[sourtwist]

I'm on the over. At least one of us will win. Good luck.

[PickoMoff]

[t-wizzle]

Scherzer coming back to earth. It's called variance.

[matthew919]

Hoping a few more folks jump on the under for this one. I'm waiting for the over 8 at pk or better.

[matthew919]

have you looked at the batting averages these teams have vs those pitchers? You should probably make a habit of doing that before placing mlb wagers.

Some very smart people would disagree with you there.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-you-should-ignore-the-data/

"Batter/Pitcher match-up data has been shown to have no predictive value. In The Book, Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin devote an entire chapter — Ch 6, “Mano a Mano” — to looking for evidence that previous results of specific batter/pitcher match-ups would predict future results in those same match-ups. It wasn’t there. "

[You mad bro]

Scherzer looks tempting as a tiny dog too as he again tries to become the only other pitcher besides Roger Clemens to begin a season 20-1. He comes off of his worst start of the year, I don't see him having two duds in a row. Guy has a 2.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .196 batting average allowed and 201 strikeouts vs. 43 walks in 183.1 innings. It's a bit surprising that he is only seventh in the majors in FIP, 11th in xFIP and fourth in WAR, but the guy is still a stud. Still, Lester is in great form too, allowing three runs or less in five straight starts and in 10 of his last 11, including allowing two earned or less in four of those last five. The Under looks like the better play here, although I wouldn't argue with Scherzer at + odds.

Its a bit surprising how you look at all those stats like fip and xfip and still lose

Whats the point ?

[TonyTall]

cabrera likely not playing. 90% out

[reesp18]

I like Det here with the value, scherzer is the real deal, det Offense >bos Offense. Gl!

[Big Bear]

Its a bit surprising how you look at all those stats like fip and xfip and still lose

Whats the point ?

what a dick comment . GTFO troll

[LT Profits]

Scherzer coming back to earth. It's called variance.

Not really because Scherzer's FIP (2.73) and xFIP (3.10) line up close to his ERA so his numbers are legit. It's not like he is a Jeff Locke type whose xFIP was two runs higher than his ERA before his regression.

[EzekielMowatt]

HOT STREAKS:

SIZZLING 55-26, 67.9%, +80.35 Last 81 MLB overall*
**RED-HOT 44-17, 72.1%, +67.35 Last 61 MLB Totals***
STUNNING +47.41 Last 90 MLB Sides*
SHINING 15-8, 65.2%, +16.05 in CFL 2011*
SOLID 5-2, 71.4%, +10.40 in CFL 2012*
STELLAR 120-81, 59.7% Preseason NFL since 2002*

No free picks currently, please check back later

The LT Profits Sports Group has been one of the most consistent handicapper teams in the industry. They are former United Handicapping Challenge winners in both NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball, and have registered a winning percentage of 60 percent over the last 10 years in NFL Preseason. The group has also notched four NFL regular seasons over 60 percent in that span all of which have been documented by The Sports Monitor. LT recorded a positive 86 units in the 2009 MLB season, and their NHL underdogs are legendary.

[BeerBottlez]

The Tigers are 18-6-3 on 1st 5 Overs this year when Scherzer starts.

As for the game I also don't see Scherzer having two bad outings in a row but lets say he does he has been bailed out so many times from the Tigers offense that it's kind of hard for me to bet the under not saying it can't happen because anything can in baseball but I'd stay away from it.

[LT Profits]

HOT STREAKS:

SIZZLING 55-26, 67.9%, +80.35 Last 81 MLB overall*
**RED-HOT 44-17, 72.1%, +67.35 Last 61 MLB Totals***
STUNNING +47.41 Last 90 MLB Sides*
SHINING 15-8, 65.2%, +16.05 in CFL 2011*
SOLID 5-2, 71.4%, +10.40 in CFL 2012*
STELLAR 120-81, 59.7% Preseason NFL since 2002*

No free picks currently, please check back later

The LT Profits Sports Group has been one of the most consistent handicapper teams in the industry. They are former United Handicapping Challenge winners in both NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball, and have registered a winning percentage of 60 percent over the last 10 years in NFL Preseason. The group has also notched four NFL regular seasons over 60 percent in that span all of which have been documented by The Sports Monitor. LT recorded a positive 86 units in the 2009 MLB season, and their NHL underdogs are legendary.

I think who2beton even has my picture still up somewhere. But check my history, you won't see anything.

[No coincidences]

Doesn't Scherzer rank No. 1 (or right near the top) in run support?

Both bullpens are definitely mediocre at best.

I don't know, LT. I don't see it.

[EzekielMowatt]

I think who2beton even has my picture still up somewhere. But check my history, you won't see anything.

Just bustin balls, i'm done now lol

[LT Profits]

Doesn't Scherzer rank No. 1 (or right near the top) in run support?

Both bullpens are definitely mediocre at best.

I don't know, LT. I don't see it.

Run support is moot when you have his numbers across the board, he would win games getting less than 4.00 runs per game. Yes Tigers pen is a horror show, but Max could work deep enough to where Detroit may need just one inning from stiffs before getting to Benoit, and as mentioned Boston pen has been hot.

[stevenash]

Some very smart people would disagree with you there.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-you-should-ignore-the-data/

"Batter/Pitcher match-up data has been shown to have no predictive value. In The Book, Tango/Lichtman/Dolphin devote an entire chapter — Ch 6, “Mano a Mano” — to looking for evidence that previous results of specific batter/pitcher match-ups would predict future results in those same match-ups. It wasn’t there. "

First off, I disagree.
Second off, the article says batter v. pitcher can be useful, but should not be used as an exclusive barometer, which I have no problems with.

Leyland has a bench player, Don Kelly, Kelly crushes Justin Masterson and Wade Davis (and a few others)
He will always get a start against those two.

While we are on the subject of Tigers, the recently retired, great Maglio Ordonez crushed particular starters as well.
Mags was not an everyday player, but he always got a start against Johan Santana, when Santana was in his prime for the Twins, Mags was 18 for 46 against him (.351) and 5 of the 18 were homers. Santana could not get him out it seemed.
He was 12 for 17 against Chad Durbin, 24 for 50 (.480) against Scott Baker. etc etc

If you are 24 for 50 against a certain pitcher, why would you not start him, that is a trend that can not be ignored.

[No coincidences]

Run support is moot when you have his numbers across the board, he would win games getting less than 4.00 runs per game. Yes Tigers pen is a horror show, but Max could work deep enough to where Detroit may need just one inning from stiffs before getting to Benoit, and as mentioned Boston pen has been hot.

Are you sure about that? I could've sworn I read/heard recently that Scherzer would be like 13-7 right now if he received Lester's run support.

[stevenash]

Run support is moot when you have his numbers across the board, he would win games getting less than 4.00 runs per game. Yes Tigers pen is a horror show, but Max could work deep enough to where Detroit may need just one inning from stiffs before getting to Benoit, and as mentioned Boston pen has been hot.

Know who has the highest single season run support?
Phil Hughes - 2010 - got 6.48 runs on the average every time he made a start in 2010. (Joe Blanton was second at 5.89 run support)
The most RS for any starter in the history of the game. He won 18 games that year not because he was good, because the Yanks got him 6 and half runs for him every start.
Ray Charles can win 18 with 6.5 runs in support.

[LT Profits]

Are you sure about that? I could've sworn I read/heard recently that Scherzer would be like 13-7 right now if he received Lester's run support.

Scherzer has started 27 games this year and allowed more than three runs six times. Obviously there is more to it than that but that seems like a great starting point. The 2.90 ERA is not a fluke, and like I said his Sabres back that up.

[LT Profits]

Know who has the highest single season run support?
Phil Hughes - 2010 - got 6.48 runs on the average every time he made a start in 2010. (Joe Blanton was second at 5.89 run support)
The most RS for any starter in the history of the game. He won 18 games that year not because he was good, because the Yanks got him 6 and half runs for him every start.
Ray Charles can win 18 with 6.5 runs in support.

What about Ivan Nova 2012?

[stevenash]

What about Ivan Nova 2012?

5.00
Lance Lynn led the league with most RS that year 5.90

[No coincidences]

Scherzer has started 27 games this year and allowed more than three runs six times. Obviously there is more to it than that but that seems like a great starting point. The 2.90 ERA is not a fluke, and like I said his Sabres back that up.

I'm not saying his 2.90 ERA is a fluke -- I'm saying his 19-1 record is.

As nasher referenced above, even Phil Hughes and Joe Blanton -- two of the worst starters in baseball -- can have glossy records if they get a ton of run support. Scherzer is No. 1 at 5.96 per game. Lester is 12th at 5.00 per game. If you want to bet an under given those stats in a park like Fenway, be my guest.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/runSupportPerStart/qualified/true/type/expanded-2

[LT Profits]

I'm saying his 19-1 record is.

Oh, of course, no doubt! But that's not really the point, the point is that he is an excellent pitcher. W/L record doesn't mean anything anyway, it is his peripherals that are impressive.

Scherzer is No. 1 at 5.96 per game. Lester is 12th at 5.00 per game.

That doesn't mean a thing here either because neither pitcher figures to get that support tonight given the mound opponent. Besides which "run support" is a useless random stat as a capping tool, it is entirely dependent on the opposing pitchers.

Look like I said, there are no guarantees and this game could end with a 10-8 final. But if it does, it won't be because these pitchers always get good run support, it will be because they didn't pitch well. I like this play a lot based on each pitcher having his "normal" effort, which is really all that you can cap ahead of time.