These are not my picks, just posting Rober Ferringo's Picks from Doc's Sports Service.
SUPER BOWL PLAYS
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 46.5 Pittsburgh vs. Arizona (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh (-7) over Arizona (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 1)
1-Unit Play. Total Receiving Yards - Anquan Boldin: 'Over' 66.5 (-110)
1-Unit Play. Will Anquan Boldin Score A TD: Yes (+150)
I think that Boldin is primed for a big game. I think that all the attention by Pittsburgh is being focused on stopping Larry Ftizgerald, but in my opinion the best wideout for the Cards is clearly Boldin. You know that Todd Haley wants to get him involved early not only to placate him but also because Fitzgerald is likely going to be double-teamed with safety help over the top. That should open things up underneath. Boldin is tough, and I think he'll catch at least two or three of those wide receiver screens that Arizona likes to throw. And one of the places they like to throw them the most is near the goal line. I think Pittsburgh is going to be able to score a good amount of points against the Cardinals defense. If that's the case, and if Arizona is playing catch-up all game, then they are going to be throwing the ball a ton and that means a load of balls going to Fitz and Boldin.
Further, I don't think Arizona is going to be able to run the ball as effectively against the Pittsburgh front seven. If that is the case you know Ken Whisenhunt won't hesitate to abandon the run and throw on just about every down. Warner is going to manage about 20-25 completions. And if that is the case at least 12-15 are going to Boldin and Fitzgerald. I like our guy to have a big game and when that happens we'll clean up. How about 7 catches for 96 yards and 1 TD? I don't think that's anything more than what should be expected from one of the best in the game.
2-Unit Play. Total Field Goals By Both Teams: 'Over' 3.5 (-130)
1-Unit Play. First score of the game will be: FG or safety (+145)
1-Unit Play. Pittsburgh's first score will be: FG or safety (+300)
1-Unit Play. Arizona's first score will be: FG or safety (+300)
1-Unit Play. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 or more yards: Yes (+130)
I'm rooting for the kickers in this game. If you want to cut props then this is the place to do it. We are "doubling up" on our belief that the first score will be a FG, and we're getting 3-to-1 on each individual team's first score coming off the leg. Again, if it's more action than you want then simply don't play the three italicized wagers.
It's the Super Bowl. Teams are always a bit more conservative, especially in the early goings, when it comes to both offense and defense. I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball. Not at will, but I expect them both to manage points. However, I think that in the first half we are going to see a slew of scoring, just not many early touchdowns. Pittsburgh's defense is the best in the business. But Arizona's offense has been unreal over the last month and they will make some plays against the one weakness of the Pitt D - the secondary. The Steelers don't have a bad secondary, by any means, but their strength is in the front seven. I see them tightening up on their own side of the field and even though they may allow some red zone opportunities I don't see Arizona being able to punch TD's in. Both offensively and defensively these teams combine to allow a field goal in one of every three red zone opportunities. And those are just the chippy field goals. Both kickers are sharp and both have good range so I can see them coming through with five for the game.
If the first score of the game is a 35-yard field goal, then we collect +445 and have hit two wagers. On top of that, we're halfway to our "both teams make over 33 yards" wager for +130 more and we are on our way to the total field goals bet. So we are actually in a pretty low risk-high reward situation here. If we get a field goal fest then we have the chance to lay out 650 and bring back over 1100. That's great value. And if we manage to lose these bets that means that TD's are being scored and that gets us closer to our 'over' on our main play. So, we have a lot of ways to make money here based on the scoring, and I do think there will be plenty. This is a lot like my Boldin grouping in that we're kind of "doubling up" on certain plays. If Boldin catches 6 or more balls then he's going to have more than 66 yards. Well, if the first score is a field goal then we are in a position to score in a big way.
2-Unit Play. Tim Hightower total rush attempts: ‘Over’ 6.5 (-115)
Hightower has gotten over six rushing attempts in 13 of Arizona's 19 games this year. If Edge is ineffective - and I think he will be - then I don't think they will hesitate to go to Hightower. If Arizona is rushing the ball well, then Hightower is the second-half back and Whisenhunt will bring him in to close out the game. I really like Hightower's receptions at 'over' 1.5 as well, but I already thought I had enough prop action for you! Also, they like to use Hightower in the red zone because he runs a bit harder than Edge. I see Arizona being in the red zone at least four times and that right there should give us the touches we need.
1-Unit Play. Team to receive the opening kickoff - Arizona (-170)
This has been the hottest prop bet on the board this week, and for good reason. The NFC has won the coin toss an astounding nine of 11 times and this play makes a lot of sense from a tactical standpoint. Both teams want to get their strength on the field. If Pitt wins it wants to get its defense out there to set a physical tone, and to get the ball in the second half. That's exactly what they have done in each of their first two playoff games. If Arizona wins the toss they want to get Warner and Co. on the field ASAP and try to strike first. This might be the easiest prop on the board but I didn't want to go all-out with it because the juice has gone from an open of -115 to -170.
1-Unit Play. Will there be a special teams touchdown in the game: No (-200)
Arizona has one of the best punt coverage units in the league and Pittsburgh is always solid on special teams. You know that there was plenty of time dedicated to special teams over the last two weeks and I just don't see any game breakers in the return game on either side that have me worried. This number should be at least -350 so we are getting a steal here.
1-Unit Play. Team to have the most time of possession: Pittsburgh -1.5 minutes (-140)
1-Unit Play. Arizona Total 3rd Down Conversions: 'Over' 4.5
Again, consider these two bonus props and if you don't want the action then these are the first two to go. But I think they offer tremendous value all the way so I'm just going to throw them out there. Pittsburgh allowed an average of 4.4 third-down conversions per game during the regular season. And they didn't face many offenses like Arizona's. The Cardinals converted 5.2 third downs per game and I think they will be sharp this time out. I have seen drives this year where the Cards have converted three or four third downs on one drive. They had five FD's against Philly, 10 against Carolina, and 6 against Atlanta. I see Pittsburgh being able to slow them down on first and second down so I actually think that Arizona is going to have a lot of third-down opportunities. If they get 15 or 16 of them they are going to convert 5. No doubt.
The time of possession is pretty obvious. I think that Pittsburgh is going to win. As a result I think they are going to control the clock and that they are going to be able to run the ball. Arizona just has too many drives that last under 1:30 to be considered a threat in this category and, again, I just think that this is a sensational value. If Pittsburgh gets just 31 minutes of possession then we win this one. I really think its money in the bank.
Rest of the writeups will follow.
SUPER BOWL PLAYS
1-Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh (-7) over Arizona (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 1)
PROP BETS
3-Unit Play. Total Receptions – Anquan Boldin: ‘Over’ 5.0 (-150)1-Unit Play. Total Receiving Yards - Anquan Boldin: 'Over' 66.5 (-110)
1-Unit Play. Will Anquan Boldin Score A TD: Yes (+150)
I think that Boldin is primed for a big game. I think that all the attention by Pittsburgh is being focused on stopping Larry Ftizgerald, but in my opinion the best wideout for the Cards is clearly Boldin. You know that Todd Haley wants to get him involved early not only to placate him but also because Fitzgerald is likely going to be double-teamed with safety help over the top. That should open things up underneath. Boldin is tough, and I think he'll catch at least two or three of those wide receiver screens that Arizona likes to throw. And one of the places they like to throw them the most is near the goal line. I think Pittsburgh is going to be able to score a good amount of points against the Cardinals defense. If that's the case, and if Arizona is playing catch-up all game, then they are going to be throwing the ball a ton and that means a load of balls going to Fitz and Boldin.
Further, I don't think Arizona is going to be able to run the ball as effectively against the Pittsburgh front seven. If that is the case you know Ken Whisenhunt won't hesitate to abandon the run and throw on just about every down. Warner is going to manage about 20-25 completions. And if that is the case at least 12-15 are going to Boldin and Fitzgerald. I like our guy to have a big game and when that happens we'll clean up. How about 7 catches for 96 yards and 1 TD? I don't think that's anything more than what should be expected from one of the best in the game.
2-Unit Play. Total Field Goals By Both Teams: 'Over' 3.5 (-130)
1-Unit Play. First score of the game will be: FG or safety (+145)
1-Unit Play. Pittsburgh's first score will be: FG or safety (+300)
1-Unit Play. Arizona's first score will be: FG or safety (+300)
1-Unit Play. Will both teams make a field goal of 33 or more yards: Yes (+130)
I'm rooting for the kickers in this game. If you want to cut props then this is the place to do it. We are "doubling up" on our belief that the first score will be a FG, and we're getting 3-to-1 on each individual team's first score coming off the leg. Again, if it's more action than you want then simply don't play the three italicized wagers.
It's the Super Bowl. Teams are always a bit more conservative, especially in the early goings, when it comes to both offense and defense. I expect both offenses to be able to move the ball. Not at will, but I expect them both to manage points. However, I think that in the first half we are going to see a slew of scoring, just not many early touchdowns. Pittsburgh's defense is the best in the business. But Arizona's offense has been unreal over the last month and they will make some plays against the one weakness of the Pitt D - the secondary. The Steelers don't have a bad secondary, by any means, but their strength is in the front seven. I see them tightening up on their own side of the field and even though they may allow some red zone opportunities I don't see Arizona being able to punch TD's in. Both offensively and defensively these teams combine to allow a field goal in one of every three red zone opportunities. And those are just the chippy field goals. Both kickers are sharp and both have good range so I can see them coming through with five for the game.
If the first score of the game is a 35-yard field goal, then we collect +445 and have hit two wagers. On top of that, we're halfway to our "both teams make over 33 yards" wager for +130 more and we are on our way to the total field goals bet. So we are actually in a pretty low risk-high reward situation here. If we get a field goal fest then we have the chance to lay out 650 and bring back over 1100. That's great value. And if we manage to lose these bets that means that TD's are being scored and that gets us closer to our 'over' on our main play. So, we have a lot of ways to make money here based on the scoring, and I do think there will be plenty. This is a lot like my Boldin grouping in that we're kind of "doubling up" on certain plays. If Boldin catches 6 or more balls then he's going to have more than 66 yards. Well, if the first score is a field goal then we are in a position to score in a big way.
2-Unit Play. Tim Hightower total rush attempts: ‘Over’ 6.5 (-115)
Hightower has gotten over six rushing attempts in 13 of Arizona's 19 games this year. If Edge is ineffective - and I think he will be - then I don't think they will hesitate to go to Hightower. If Arizona is rushing the ball well, then Hightower is the second-half back and Whisenhunt will bring him in to close out the game. I really like Hightower's receptions at 'over' 1.5 as well, but I already thought I had enough prop action for you! Also, they like to use Hightower in the red zone because he runs a bit harder than Edge. I see Arizona being in the red zone at least four times and that right there should give us the touches we need.
1-Unit Play. Team to receive the opening kickoff - Arizona (-170)
This has been the hottest prop bet on the board this week, and for good reason. The NFC has won the coin toss an astounding nine of 11 times and this play makes a lot of sense from a tactical standpoint. Both teams want to get their strength on the field. If Pitt wins it wants to get its defense out there to set a physical tone, and to get the ball in the second half. That's exactly what they have done in each of their first two playoff games. If Arizona wins the toss they want to get Warner and Co. on the field ASAP and try to strike first. This might be the easiest prop on the board but I didn't want to go all-out with it because the juice has gone from an open of -115 to -170.
1-Unit Play. Will there be a special teams touchdown in the game: No (-200)
Arizona has one of the best punt coverage units in the league and Pittsburgh is always solid on special teams. You know that there was plenty of time dedicated to special teams over the last two weeks and I just don't see any game breakers in the return game on either side that have me worried. This number should be at least -350 so we are getting a steal here.
1-Unit Play. Team to have the most time of possession: Pittsburgh -1.5 minutes (-140)
1-Unit Play. Arizona Total 3rd Down Conversions: 'Over' 4.5
Again, consider these two bonus props and if you don't want the action then these are the first two to go. But I think they offer tremendous value all the way so I'm just going to throw them out there. Pittsburgh allowed an average of 4.4 third-down conversions per game during the regular season. And they didn't face many offenses like Arizona's. The Cardinals converted 5.2 third downs per game and I think they will be sharp this time out. I have seen drives this year where the Cards have converted three or four third downs on one drive. They had five FD's against Philly, 10 against Carolina, and 6 against Atlanta. I see Pittsburgh being able to slow them down on first and second down so I actually think that Arizona is going to have a lot of third-down opportunities. If they get 15 or 16 of them they are going to convert 5. No doubt.
The time of possession is pretty obvious. I think that Pittsburgh is going to win. As a result I think they are going to control the clock and that they are going to be able to run the ball. Arizona just has too many drives that last under 1:30 to be considered a threat in this category and, again, I just think that this is a sensational value. If Pittsburgh gets just 31 minutes of possession then we win this one. I really think its money in the bank.
Rest of the writeups will follow.