picked this up over at the RX.com forum last year during football season, pretty good article/ posts by some sharp cappers...
It's all about discipline and money management
I'm really learning this more, each and every day. The only big advantage that the books have over us is our own nature to be self-destructive and beat ourselves. If you are knowledgeable about sports, and specialize in one or two, all you have to do is flat bet and pick your spots, and you will win at this game. Occasionally, I will double my bet if I really like the game, but 5 times your bet size is never a good idea. I learned that the hard way. I had a terrible end to my college basketball season last year, and it carried over to college football this year. Bad money management. And I have realized that anything can and does happen in the world of sports. SIU and Illinois both lost to bad teams at home in the same week. The odds of that, according to the moneylines, were over 400-1. And it happened. I didn't have wagers on those moneylines, or anything stupid like that, but I never dreamed it could happen, and I'm still shocked. The books don't really fear players, because they know that 95% of them will beat themselves by poor money management, even though a lot of them can pick winners. I've got a lot of friends that don't bet that tell me that could go 65% "easily" if they got into it. I remember thinking the same thing, that I could kill sportsbetting before I started betting. Once I started wagering, I realized that it is much harder than I thought. But, what I've also realized is that it isn't hard to get an edge on the books, if you pick your spots, don't bet very many games, and never go crazy on one pick. We all have that human weakness of greed, and if we don't allow it to surface, we can win this game. I don't know anyone that has been disciplined from day one in sports wagering. It goes against our nature. It almost takes going through bad money management to learn from your mistakes and resolve to never let it happen again. I know I have. I will never again place a wager where it's not okay to lose, and I'm guaranteed to win over the long run because of it. If any of you new bettors have not yet experienced the pain of losing more than you should, don't let it happen. Discipline. Most don't have it, but if you can have it, or learn to have it, you will be a winning bettor.
Posted by Illini, 2/8/06 in the rx.com forum
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INSIDERS, I love to play into streaks.
I've participated in a number of internet handicapping forums over the past seven years, but only here at the RX have I seen such a nice collection of people who take it seriously.
Here's my casual analysis of internet sports forum posters.
70% are casual players, coattailers, lurkers
About 15-20% are "newbies", usually younger in age, who want to play serious because they have a decent eye for a sport(s) and/or a decent math mind. However, this particular group is often socially weak and they create more distractions then they do help when they stir up shit or are simply rude to other members.
The final 10-15% are the more serious players who are committed to serious work product in one or more sports. They also know how to tail.
The best way to tail IMHO is to first recognize who the Serious Players are and learn from them.
That doesn't mean the 70% "casual/lurkers" can't also contribute. Each of them in different ways can drop in good ideas and info, plus they provide good reminders to us all of some basics that can be forgotten even by veterans.
======
I firmly believe that any sport except the NFL can be capped to a 55-65% rate of success by someone who is committed to doing the daily and regular work to compile as much info as possible and to learn how to analyze that info. The reason I omit
I believe that learning a specific sport takes at least 3-4 seasons. A person could conceivably learn multiple sports, but must realize that IMHO the "learning curve" involves 20 hours a week at a minimum.
So learning 2 or 3 sports can be done in 3 seasons if you can put in 40-60 hours per week.
That's a bit challenging for most of us.
I believe I've got a pretty good handle on NBA and NHL after 5 and 3.5 seasons respectively.
I've got a decent eye, but less confident of CFB and CBB, so I mostly tail there for now. Same with MLB.
I omit the NFL because in my opinion the season is way too short (16-20 games) and so the various statistical samples are too small for accurate forecasting. NBA and NHL are of course 82-100 games per season and MLB is 162-180.
A five year period will give us a Sample of 4-500 games in NBA/NHL and about 1000 in MLB. Thus teams with consistent rosters and management will be more measureable. The NFL turns over for most teams in as few as 50-100 games over the same five years.
If "I" can learn a sport at that pace, obviuosly others can as well.
My job in longterm sports investing career would then be as follows (with my "Career To Date" listed as CTD.
1) Learn how to cap a sport and gradually expand my total number of sports. I do that by reading and studying how to cap sports. Such information is readily available with a simple internet connection and steady access to a computer.
1a) Learn basic math to where I can recognize and compare percentages better.
It's all about discipline and money management
I'm really learning this more, each and every day. The only big advantage that the books have over us is our own nature to be self-destructive and beat ourselves. If you are knowledgeable about sports, and specialize in one or two, all you have to do is flat bet and pick your spots, and you will win at this game. Occasionally, I will double my bet if I really like the game, but 5 times your bet size is never a good idea. I learned that the hard way. I had a terrible end to my college basketball season last year, and it carried over to college football this year. Bad money management. And I have realized that anything can and does happen in the world of sports. SIU and Illinois both lost to bad teams at home in the same week. The odds of that, according to the moneylines, were over 400-1. And it happened. I didn't have wagers on those moneylines, or anything stupid like that, but I never dreamed it could happen, and I'm still shocked. The books don't really fear players, because they know that 95% of them will beat themselves by poor money management, even though a lot of them can pick winners. I've got a lot of friends that don't bet that tell me that could go 65% "easily" if they got into it. I remember thinking the same thing, that I could kill sportsbetting before I started betting. Once I started wagering, I realized that it is much harder than I thought. But, what I've also realized is that it isn't hard to get an edge on the books, if you pick your spots, don't bet very many games, and never go crazy on one pick. We all have that human weakness of greed, and if we don't allow it to surface, we can win this game. I don't know anyone that has been disciplined from day one in sports wagering. It goes against our nature. It almost takes going through bad money management to learn from your mistakes and resolve to never let it happen again. I know I have. I will never again place a wager where it's not okay to lose, and I'm guaranteed to win over the long run because of it. If any of you new bettors have not yet experienced the pain of losing more than you should, don't let it happen. Discipline. Most don't have it, but if you can have it, or learn to have it, you will be a winning bettor.
Posted by Illini, 2/8/06 in the rx.com forum
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INSIDERS, I love to play into streaks.
I've participated in a number of internet handicapping forums over the past seven years, but only here at the RX have I seen such a nice collection of people who take it seriously.
Here's my casual analysis of internet sports forum posters.
70% are casual players, coattailers, lurkers
About 15-20% are "newbies", usually younger in age, who want to play serious because they have a decent eye for a sport(s) and/or a decent math mind. However, this particular group is often socially weak and they create more distractions then they do help when they stir up shit or are simply rude to other members.
The final 10-15% are the more serious players who are committed to serious work product in one or more sports. They also know how to tail.
The best way to tail IMHO is to first recognize who the Serious Players are and learn from them.
That doesn't mean the 70% "casual/lurkers" can't also contribute. Each of them in different ways can drop in good ideas and info, plus they provide good reminders to us all of some basics that can be forgotten even by veterans.
======
I firmly believe that any sport except the NFL can be capped to a 55-65% rate of success by someone who is committed to doing the daily and regular work to compile as much info as possible and to learn how to analyze that info. The reason I omit
I believe that learning a specific sport takes at least 3-4 seasons. A person could conceivably learn multiple sports, but must realize that IMHO the "learning curve" involves 20 hours a week at a minimum.
So learning 2 or 3 sports can be done in 3 seasons if you can put in 40-60 hours per week.
That's a bit challenging for most of us.
I believe I've got a pretty good handle on NBA and NHL after 5 and 3.5 seasons respectively.
I've got a decent eye, but less confident of CFB and CBB, so I mostly tail there for now. Same with MLB.
I omit the NFL because in my opinion the season is way too short (16-20 games) and so the various statistical samples are too small for accurate forecasting. NBA and NHL are of course 82-100 games per season and MLB is 162-180.
A five year period will give us a Sample of 4-500 games in NBA/NHL and about 1000 in MLB. Thus teams with consistent rosters and management will be more measureable. The NFL turns over for most teams in as few as 50-100 games over the same five years.
If "I" can learn a sport at that pace, obviuosly others can as well.
My job in longterm sports investing career would then be as follows (with my "Career To Date" listed as CTD.
1) Learn how to cap a sport and gradually expand my total number of sports. I do that by reading and studying how to cap sports. Such information is readily available with a simple internet connection and steady access to a computer.
1a) Learn basic math to where I can recognize and compare percentages better.
