NBA Betting: Are Pistons poised for failure?
NBA Betting: Are Pistons poised for failure?
Detroit is the poster child for the current economic woes in the USA, and Motowners aren't catching much of a break from their sports clubs either. The Tigers, picked as a favorite in the AL last season, hit rock bottom in the AL Central at the end. The Lions went deeper than rock bottom as the first NFL club to go winless in a 16-game season. And now the Pistons appear poised on the brink of disappointment.
Detroit basketball... is overrated.
It's difficult to envision the Detroit Pistons of today as overvalued. Fans and bettors alike have been unsettled about this team and its direction since the trade that sent Chauncey Billups to Denver and brought Allen Iverson to Motown. But if you're looking for a team that is poised to fail against the betting odds, the Pistons are your prime suspects – in part because of their recent success.
Detroit has fought its way back into the top half of the Eastern Conference standings at 22-13 (16-19 ATS), thanks to an 11-4 run over the past month. But that run didn’t translate at the bank at 7-8 ATS. It also came at the expense of some very poor teams – only two of the wins (and all four losses) came against winning clubs.
The Pistons are very lucky to be above .500 themselves. They share the same point differential (+0.5 per game) as the 18-21 Milwaukee Bucks (24-13-2 ATS). But the Bucks are a rebuilding program – and a successful one at that under the new management of John Hammond, the former assistant GM with Detroit. His old boss, Joe Dumars, is effectively rebuilding the Pistons on the fly with Rodney Stuckey (17.50 PER) as the starting point guard in place of the departed Billups (20.98 PER). But rebuilding he is.
The sheer star power Iverson brings to the hardcourt might mask some of Detroit’s deficiencies, but Iverson is a fish out of water in the Pistons scheme, posting a less-than-stellar 16.30 PER this season. Richard Hamilton, pushed out of the starting 2-guard role and still day-to-day with a groin injury, has plummeted to a 15.90 PER (15 is the indexed league average performance). And the mercurial Rasheed Wallace has become a liability with a 14.56 PER.
This is not something Detroit supporters are used to after so many years of success and an NBA title with a relatively constant starting rotation. The difference between perception and reality is where betting value lies, and with the Pistons facing a fairly easy schedule this week, it may be a while before reality hits them in the face. All the more time for handicappers to jump on the fade train.
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
Tuesday, Jan 13, 8:30 PM
The Lakers are looking a little bit overrated themselves at 30-6 SU and 16-20 ATS. They’ve dropped the cash in their last four games despite going 3-1 SU, squeaking by Indiana (+14½) and Miami (+11) at home. Now they go out on the Texas trail to face the Rockets (24-15 SU, 18-21 ATS), who beat the Celtics (+10) in Boston to start their current three-game mini-streak.
When these two clubs met at the Staples Center in November, Houston got out to an early lead before the Lakers came back and cruised to a 111-82 victory as 7-point home faves. Both teams were healthy at the time; neither can say the same thing now. Los Angeles is still without important back-up point guard Jordan Farmar (knee) and occasional starter Luke Walton (foot) at small forward. The news got worse for Lakers fans on Monday when Sasha Vujacic (back spasms) didn’t travel with the team, although he may still join them in time for Tuesday’s matchup. Houston is missing both Tracy McGrady (knee) and Ron Artest (ankle) as they bounce in and out of the lineup.
The Lakers have enough talent to overcome some loss of depth, but perhaps not enough to get to the bank without Lamar Odom, who’s missed the last three games with a bruised knee. Josh Powell (14.97 PER) has been serviceable soaking up minutes in Odom’s absence, and Odom (13.54 PER) was already struggling with his new sixth-man role. But he also played 26.2 minutes per game. Powell is only being trusted with just under 20 minutes, while the already-overworked starting rotation absorbs the remaining workload. Odom may or may not play Tuesday.
Houston is in more of a pickle without two of its three star players. But the Rockets have depth of their own. Defensive specialist Shane Battier is back in the starting lineup, Von Wafer (15.42 PER) is holding down the fort at shooting guard, and bench stalwarts like Carl Landry (17.71 PER) are providing their usual yeoman services. However, Artest was in the lineup against Boston; Houston’s two victories since were over the Thunder (+6½) and the Knicks (+5½), and McGrady happened to be around to stick 26 points on OKC. Beating L.A. without both Artest and T-Mac will be a much tougher assignment.
Detroit is the poster child for the current economic woes in the USA, and Motowners aren't catching much of a break from their sports clubs either. The Tigers, picked as a favorite in the AL last season, hit rock bottom in the AL Central at the end. The Lions went deeper than rock bottom as the first NFL club to go winless in a 16-game season. And now the Pistons appear poised on the brink of disappointment.
Detroit basketball... is overrated.
It's difficult to envision the Detroit Pistons of today as overvalued. Fans and bettors alike have been unsettled about this team and its direction since the trade that sent Chauncey Billups to Denver and brought Allen Iverson to Motown. But if you're looking for a team that is poised to fail against the betting odds, the Pistons are your prime suspects – in part because of their recent success.
Detroit has fought its way back into the top half of the Eastern Conference standings at 22-13 (16-19 ATS), thanks to an 11-4 run over the past month. But that run didn’t translate at the bank at 7-8 ATS. It also came at the expense of some very poor teams – only two of the wins (and all four losses) came against winning clubs.
The Pistons are very lucky to be above .500 themselves. They share the same point differential (+0.5 per game) as the 18-21 Milwaukee Bucks (24-13-2 ATS). But the Bucks are a rebuilding program – and a successful one at that under the new management of John Hammond, the former assistant GM with Detroit. His old boss, Joe Dumars, is effectively rebuilding the Pistons on the fly with Rodney Stuckey (17.50 PER) as the starting point guard in place of the departed Billups (20.98 PER). But rebuilding he is.
The sheer star power Iverson brings to the hardcourt might mask some of Detroit’s deficiencies, but Iverson is a fish out of water in the Pistons scheme, posting a less-than-stellar 16.30 PER this season. Richard Hamilton, pushed out of the starting 2-guard role and still day-to-day with a groin injury, has plummeted to a 15.90 PER (15 is the indexed league average performance). And the mercurial Rasheed Wallace has become a liability with a 14.56 PER.
This is not something Detroit supporters are used to after so many years of success and an NBA title with a relatively constant starting rotation. The difference between perception and reality is where betting value lies, and with the Pistons facing a fairly easy schedule this week, it may be a while before reality hits them in the face. All the more time for handicappers to jump on the fade train.
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
Tuesday, Jan 13, 8:30 PM
The Lakers are looking a little bit overrated themselves at 30-6 SU and 16-20 ATS. They’ve dropped the cash in their last four games despite going 3-1 SU, squeaking by Indiana (+14½) and Miami (+11) at home. Now they go out on the Texas trail to face the Rockets (24-15 SU, 18-21 ATS), who beat the Celtics (+10) in Boston to start their current three-game mini-streak.
When these two clubs met at the Staples Center in November, Houston got out to an early lead before the Lakers came back and cruised to a 111-82 victory as 7-point home faves. Both teams were healthy at the time; neither can say the same thing now. Los Angeles is still without important back-up point guard Jordan Farmar (knee) and occasional starter Luke Walton (foot) at small forward. The news got worse for Lakers fans on Monday when Sasha Vujacic (back spasms) didn’t travel with the team, although he may still join them in time for Tuesday’s matchup. Houston is missing both Tracy McGrady (knee) and Ron Artest (ankle) as they bounce in and out of the lineup.
The Lakers have enough talent to overcome some loss of depth, but perhaps not enough to get to the bank without Lamar Odom, who’s missed the last three games with a bruised knee. Josh Powell (14.97 PER) has been serviceable soaking up minutes in Odom’s absence, and Odom (13.54 PER) was already struggling with his new sixth-man role. But he also played 26.2 minutes per game. Powell is only being trusted with just under 20 minutes, while the already-overworked starting rotation absorbs the remaining workload. Odom may or may not play Tuesday.
Houston is in more of a pickle without two of its three star players. But the Rockets have depth of their own. Defensive specialist Shane Battier is back in the starting lineup, Von Wafer (15.42 PER) is holding down the fort at shooting guard, and bench stalwarts like Carl Landry (17.71 PER) are providing their usual yeoman services. However, Artest was in the lineup against Boston; Houston’s two victories since were over the Thunder (+6½) and the Knicks (+5½), and McGrady happened to be around to stick 26 points on OKC. Beating L.A. without both Artest and T-Mac will be a much tougher assignment.