How big of favorite? DOW under 9,999 on the close DEC. 31st?

[Fishhead]

-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-3000
???????????????????????

Make a line if you could

Example

Over +500
Under -600

[Boner_18]

+7500
-8000

And I'll take under for the max. Tax planning selling will keep any opportunistic buying down IMO.

[pavyracer]

-200 under
+200 over

After Thanksgiving rally will move it above 9,999.

[MonkeyF0cker]

The big question is, will Christmas retail sales exceed expectations? If they somehow do, it may be a sign that things aren't as bad as many fear. That could create some confidence and stimulate the market. I don't think it's anywhere near -8000, especially with the volatility we've seen recently. My guess would be somewhere in the -700 range.

[Justin7]

-300.

[Boner_18]

Even if Christmas retail sales exceed expectations (which I believe they will since expectations are so low) that is not enough to lift the market 17+% from its current levels. Retail sales #s may be up but the full extent wont be known until Q4 is released in Jan. Add an auto maker bailout for a lift and we're getting closer. However, I don't think this is happening until the President Elect is the President.

I think we are going to be in a holding pattern the rest of the year. I myself am selling to realize tax loss as are those around me... Ok maybe -8000 is alarmist of me but let me know who is booking action at -200, -300 or even -700...

[durito]

i have -110 closes under 11,000 on december 1st at betonline.

they had this up fairly recently too.

$20 max.

[Boner_18]

Dec. 1 is scary since there will be more retail in the market and less tax selling. However i would be confident at 11,000 and wouldn't hesitate to take +$ even on 10,000 at Dec. 1.

[wtf]

why is the market going to go up? there is a huge trend on umemployment getting worse, not stablizing.

i dont think this will be a good xmas.

fear is deep now.

[mathdotcom]

-2000

[pavyracer]

why is the market going to go up? there is a huge trend on umemployment getting worse, not stablizing.

i dont think this will be a good xmas.

fear is deep now.

Because the market goes up on bad news and goes down on good news.

[wtf]

pavy, you saying buy the rumor sell the fact?

[MonkeyF0cker]

You really don't think investors are looking for any bit of good news right now? Any indication that the current economic picture isn't as bleak as it is thought to be could certainly bring in the bulls. The current volatility is a clear indication that investors are seeing values right now. We were less than 500 points away a little more than a week ago. Any good news is big news right now.

[wtf]

here some good news! NOT

Hurricane Rebound
A report from the New York Fed the same day may show manufacturing in the state contracted this month at the fastest pace since at least 2001. A similar report from the Philadelphia Fed on Nov. 20 may show regional activity shrank for an 11th time in 12 months.
The economic slump will intensify this quarter and persist into the first three months of 2009, making it the longest downturn since 1974-75, according to economists surveyed this month.
The housing recession at the heart of the economic downturn shows no signs of letting up. New-home starts in October dropped to a 780,000 annual pace, the lowest level since records began in 1959, the Commerce Department is forecast to report Nov. 19.
Outlook Dims
A gauge of the economy's course will point to continued weakness, economists project a private report on Nov. 20 will show. The New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators probably fell 0.6 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in September.
Central bankers are battling to cushion the economy from the worst financial crisis in seven decades.

[Outlawdino]

theinternationalforecaster.com is a great place to stay up with the action....new articles on the site every few days or so.

[MonkeyF0cker]

here some good news! NOT

Hurricane Rebound
A report from the New York Fed the same day may show manufacturing in the state contracted this month at the fastest pace since at least 2001. A similar report from the Philadelphia Fed on Nov. 20 may show regional activity shrank for an 11th time in 12 months.
The economic slump will intensify this quarter and persist into the first three months of 2009, making it the longest downturn since 1974-75, according to economists surveyed this month.
The housing recession at the heart of the economic downturn shows no signs of letting up. New-home starts in October dropped to a 780,000 annual pace, the lowest level since records began in 1959, the Commerce Department is forecast to report Nov. 19.
Outlook Dims
A gauge of the economy's course will point to continued weakness, economists project a private report on Nov. 20 will show. The New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators probably fell 0.6 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in September.
Central bankers are battling to cushion the economy from the worst financial crisis in seven decades.

I guess you missed the point. I assumed anyone with any input in this thread would realize that there is plenty of bad news related to the economy out there currently. We don't need regionalized reports to figure this out. If the bulls on the market hear any positive news right now, it would almost certainly spark a rally since there is almost none being released currently. The duration and sustainability of such a rally is the bigger question mark.

[EBSB52]

i have -110 closes under 11,000 on december 1st at betonline.

they had this up fairly recently too.

$20 max.

That's a fukin lock, I think -500 over / +400 under would be about right for 10,000.

[Milkin' it Slowly]

That's a fukin lock, I think -500 over / +400 under would be about right for 10,000.

Enough said...

[HedgeHog]

-600 Under 10k

+500 Over 10k

[BestPlay2day]

Under 10,000 -1000
Over 10,000 +900

Retail is going to be hurting this holiday season.

[EBSB52]

Enough said...

OOPS!!!! I got that backwards, I meant -500 under / +400 over.

IOW's, it will definately finish under 10,000.

[RageWizard]

By the time the 31st comes around 10,000 will be above the 50 day moving average, and I don't have the exact numbers for this year, but the market hasn't been above the 50 day moving average much this year. Expecially with guys like me heavily shorting the market each time it gets close. so I put hte odds like so.

Over 10000 +2500
Under 10000 -2570

[EBSB52]

By the time the 31st comes around 10,000 will be above the 50 day moving average, and I don't have the exact numbers for this year, but the market hasn't been above the 50 day moving average much this year. Expecially with guys like me heavily shorting the market each time it gets close. so I put hte odds like so.

Over 10000 +2500
Under 10000 -2570

I could see it. Must be all the people hating Obama in office....

*sarcasm*

[RageWizard]

Has nothing to do with Obama, but plenty to do with a bunch of crooks that were manipulating rules so that they can make a fortune and leave the rest of us holding the bag like every other ponzi scheme.

[jjgold]

We are getting closer and closer to a mild depression, I think you will see it in March, Dow will come down to like 6000 or so

[Outlawdino]

Has nothing to do with Obama, but plenty to do with a bunch of crooks that were manipulating rules so that they can make a fortune and leave the rest of us holding the bag like every other ponzi scheme.

By the end of this year??? Who knows...but for the short term (the next 12-24 months)....get ready for below 6500 on the Dow fellas. Anyone got their guns loaded, food stocked, and moved their money into gold and/or silver??

[EBSB52]

Has nothing to do with Obama, but plenty to do with a bunch of crooks that were manipulating rules so that they can make a fortune and leave the rest of us holding the bag like every other ponzi scheme.

For sure, just sarcasm. SOme people want to think that investors are picketing the market due to Obama, but can't explain the 2900 pt drop from the end of sep to the end of Oct.