Sportsbook.com $100,000 Survivor pool - 13,500 contestestants already down to 5393

Regul8er · 09-24-12, 10:10 AM

Of the 2,069 entrants, only 306 remain (11 pending on Green Bay)
I still have 2 of my 3 entrees in play. Other then New Orleans yesterday, I've avoided the big upsets.

See if I can't hang in this thing!

Regul8er · 09-25-12, 09:10 AM

WOW...tough pill to swallow for those on the Pack last night.

This week I have 5 teams circled.....Houston, Atlanta, Arizona, Detroit and Denver.
I'm looking to be safe and smart here.

I've crossed off Detroit because of the status of Stafford is unknown. Arizona has gotten off to a tremendous start, but I want to see a few more games before I risk taking them. Houston still has home games with Jacksonville, Indy and Minnesota....so I'm going to wait for a better time. Process of elimination brings me down to Atlanta and Denver. I think I'll go with Atlanta because at this point they are more rounded then Denver....and Carolina looks in dismay right now. I don't know if the Panthers can realistically turn the page in 1 week.

easyliving · 10-10-12, 04:43 PM

had only 1 entry still active.

Regul8er · 10-16-12, 08:03 AM

Looking for some help. I'm still one of 202 alive in my pool (started with 2,069)

My options for teams I havent selected this week are New England, Green Bay, New Orleans, Buffalo, Oakland and Indy.

I don't want to take New England, because I need to save them for week 11. The cake games for week 11 are all teams I've already selected (Atlanta vs Arizona, Dallas vs Cleveland and Houston vs Jax).

Green Bay is a decent pick @ St. Louis, but they play home vs Jax and Arizona the next two weeks. Would love to save them, or else I run into a domino effect.

If I knew that New Orleans utilized their bye week, and come out playing emotional football, I would select them in a heartbeat. Really its a must win for their season, and it's not like the Bucs are a juggernaut. 2-3, with wins over the lowly Chiefs and Panthers. In fact, they beat the Panthers 16-10 on a day where the Panthers looked pathetic. Plus, the Saints have a tough schedule, and if I don't pick them this week, I may never touch them. Sure they play Bucs at home week 15, but the game might be meaningless at that point.

I see risks in taking Oakland, Buffalo or Indy. I would like to think Oakland would win after what they showed last week, but you just never know with this bunch.

Any thoughts?

Regul8er · 10-16-12, 08:13 AM

Just saw a stat that New Orleans is 1st in the league in passing yards.....Bucs are 31st in passing yards against.
Newton and Griffin both threw for over 300, and Manning threw for over 500.

Sure the Saints defense has been bad, but they get Vilma back this week, and have had 2 weeks to prepare for the Bucs offense, which is pretty vanilla. They rank very low in total yardage, and that includes last week where they torched the Chiefs.

I'm starting to lean......is this a riskier pick then Oakland or Buffalo?

ThaWoj · 10-16-12, 08:28 AM

Well as a die hard saints fan, we have never been a good road team and always have trouble in tampa. The good thing is graham, moore, colston, greer, and a few others were really banged up so the bye should help. I dont think vilma will be a factor and wont play too much. He'll give an emotional lift if anything.

On the other hand the raiders look like a good pick, at home vs an east coast team. Only bad thing is jags off the bye and the +4 is scary low. last week all the teams coming off the bye played very well.

Regul8er · 10-16-12, 08:38 AM

Thanks for the insight Woj! YA, this is difficult.

I definately can't use New England, but will use Green Bay if necessary. I can't imagine New Orleans won't be ready to roll in this one. I can see the Saints putting up 30+, but can the Bucs offense keep up?? Sure they scored 38 on the Chiefs, but there in a league all by themselves.

yisman · 10-16-12, 10:05 AM

Do not take Green Bay.

Regul8er · 10-16-12, 11:52 AM

I would love to save GB, and use Chicago Week 8 vs Carolina (which 65% have already taken) and then GB in week 9 vs Arizona (I'm sure a high percentage will take Packers vs Jags week 8, since so many have used Chicago).

I just need to get through this week to feel comfortable. New Orleans, Oakland, Buffalo??

Or do I just use New England, and think about week 11 down the road?? New Orleans if they are able to right the ship, would play at Oakland that week, which may be an option.

This is difficult.

Mikeyanks23 · 10-16-12, 12:06 PM

Im using NEw Englnad this week. Was thinkin the same as you but dont wanna look ahead and then not make it that far when i couldve made it an extra week. Plus theres only 39 left in mine..

goodluck though

ThaWoj · 10-16-12, 12:11 PM

Yeah i hate the word lock but new england rolls coming off tje loss and the jets off the big win. Jets will be overmatched.

Buffalo is too inconsistent to trust

yisman · 10-16-12, 12:13 PM

Very tough week.

If I were you, I'd probably go with New England and figure out week 11 when we get there (probably the best option, at this point you should be focusing on surviving each week without taking week 11 into account).

You already used Minnesota?

I'd say Indy 3rd, Minnesota 4th

Regul8er · 10-16-12, 12:18 PM

Yisman.....ya I think your right, but I think planning is an underrated key in these pools. If I could hang onto New England until week 11, I'd virtually be there by myself, as many will take them this week and week 10 vs Buffalo.

I havent used Minnesota, but I dont feel comfortable at all with them vs Arizona. It looked as though we were getting a good idea of the type of teams they are, but last week faceplant vs the Skins has me questioning again.

As much as I hate doing it, New England might have to be the play. Too bad I've lost Atlanta, Dallas and Houston for week 11.....but heck a marginal game now, might be a 7 point favorite in a month, right?

ThaWoj · 10-16-12, 12:26 PM

plus by wk11 youll have a better guage on some of those middle of the road teams. Go with what ur confident about

Regul8er · 10-17-12, 11:26 AM

Chicago Bears are starting to creep into my mind at home vs Detroit on MNF.

I was hoping to use Chicago next week, but I can always use GB vs Jax next week, and then either Detroit at Jax or Balty at Cleveland week 9. Thoughts about the Bears? They have owned this series in recent years, and they are an improved, and the Lions seem to be down.

yisman · 10-17-12, 11:33 AM

I wouldn't want the Bears this week. I'd actually feel more confident in the Vikings.

newguy · 10-17-12, 01:15 PM

Pat's don't lose to Jets this week - Minny would be my next play. Week 11 is a long way off and I don't think Pat's are a good enough team to save them for later on - there will be 14 winners in week 11. Cowgirls likely find a way to beat Cleveland that week and I doubt you have used them yet - so you have options!

Regul8er · 10-17-12, 01:29 PM

Newguy....I know what your saying about just trying to survive the week. Minny scares me against Arizona!

But I already used Dallas, Atlanta and Houston.....the 3 teams that have favorable week 11 matchups.

Regul8er · 10-19-12, 12:57 PM

I think Im convinced I'll be on the Saints.....and sweating my a$$ off all weekend.
If (and its a big if) the Saints can win, and the Patriots and either the Packers/Bears/Raiders lose, this pool could be down in the 50 range, at which point I could start hedging some big ML dogs.

Am I an idiot?

yisman · 10-19-12, 01:06 PM

I wouldn't. I can't trust the Saints this year.

Regul8er · 10-19-12, 01:24 PM

yisman.....I know this decision is crushing me.
I want to avoid the Pats, cuz I've played enough of these leagues, and when everyone stacks on one team, it usually isnt the best outcome.

I remember the Patriots week 2 vs the Cards, I remember the Giants last year vs the Seahawks at home. I remember the Packers are Tampa a few years ago, when GB was like 11-0.

I can't trust Oakland or Buffalo or Indy. I could take the Packers or Bears, but would love to use them week 8 and 9. I cant find a game those weeks I like more then the Saints this week. Baltimore at Browns week 9, but the Browns recently played Balt tough on the road. Detroit at Jags week 9, but I thats a crapshoot. Pittsburgh at home vs Washington next week, but Griffin has been playing great, and Pitt not so much.

I know the Saints have looked bad, but with their backs against the wall after an 0-3 start, they just about clipped the Packers at Lambeau took care of the Chargers at home. I just have a feel here.

yisman · 10-19-12, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

yisman.....I know this decision is crushing me.
I want to avoid the Pats, cuz I've played enough of these leagues, and when everyone stacks on one team, it usually isnt the best outcome.

you're just remembering the bad ones, but I'm certain the majority of times there's a big survivor pick, it wins.

Looking at DVOA, the Bucs have actually been better than the Saints, and they're at home.

I think that game is a coin flip. I'd go with NE or MIN, that's all. Vikings would be my pick if I wanted to save the Patriots for another week. Patriots if I'm just looking to survive one week and come what may.

Regul8er · 10-19-12, 01:55 PM

You make very valid points. There's a reason only 0.19% of people get through these things, without a loss, on average the last 5 years.
I'm not sure the reason, but 0.19% is factual.

Doesn't Minnesota scare you? Yes, they got a nice win vs the 49ers, but what else have they done? I see wins over a few bottom feeders, and 2 losses to Washington and Indy! Rookie QB, unproven defense.....Man!

yisman · 10-19-12, 02:13 PM

more about what doesn't scare me

arizona on the road

Also Minnesota has been a strong home team.

cthurman79 · 10-19-12, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Thanks for the insight Woj! YA, this is difficult.

I definately can't use New England, but will use Green Bay if necessary. I can't imagine New Orleans won't be ready to roll in this one. I can see the Saints putting up 30+, but can the Bucs offense keep up?? Sure they scored 38 on the Chiefs, but there in a league all by themselves.

I recall the Bucs going into Giants stadium and scoring a ton. Why "can't" you use New England? If you lose there is no tomorrow so no point in saving teams if there's no easy pick.

Regul8er · 10-19-12, 02:28 PM

I can use New England.....but would love not to.
THe more I think yisman, the more I like Minnesota. Kolb is out, and the O Line didnt give this guy any time. With that said, how is Skelton going to perform with guys in his face all day. I recall what he did once Kolb got knocked out vs Buffalo.

Plus the Cards ground game is struggling at best. Can we legitimately expect another solid win in the dome?

Regul8er · 10-20-12, 06:36 AM

Ended up sticking with my gut, and taking NEW ORLEANS

94 on NE, 29 on OAK, 26 on MINNY, 25 on GB, 13 on BUF, 7 on CHI, 6 on INDY, 2 on HOU, 2 on NYG, 2 on NEW ORLEANS

MexicanStallion · 10-20-12, 06:42 AM

Good luck. Personally I believe Buccs knock off the Saints on Sunday.

Regul8er · 10-20-12, 06:51 AM

Its risky without a doubt. I've looked back a few years, and teams traditionally play well coming off bye week. Of the 6 this year, Indy beat GB, Detroit beat Philly, Oakland just missed knocking off Atlanta.

I really think by studying TB for 2 full weeks, they will put together a defensive game plan that gives Brees a chance to pick apart a struggling Bucs secondary that 31st in NFL

Plus, Saints had a chance to get healthy, and it looks like Graham,Moore and Vilma are all going . This will be a boost

I know I'm still trying.to convince myself of reasons why Saints win! This team realizes the urgency, has veteran guys and at least comes out swinging tomorrow

Regul8er · 10-20-12, 06:58 AM

And despite the early season struggles, they did go punch for punch with the Packers at Lambeau a few weeks ago, and lost by 1. Tampa won't be that type of environment, so I don't expect them to be too rattled by the surroundings.

yisman · 10-21-12, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

I can use New England.....but would love not to.
THe more I think yisman, the more I like Minnesota. Kolb is out, and the O Line didnt give this guy any time. With that said, how is Skelton going to perform with guys in his face all day. I recall what he did once Kolb got knocked out vs Buffalo.

Plus the Cards ground game is struggling at best. Can we legitimately expect another solid win in the dome?

but you didn't do it anyway!

Saints may win but it won't be easy

Regul8er · 10-21-12, 08:08 PM

Big win for Saints.
Yisman, now do you better understand how these pools work? You don't wanna be on the team the majority of entrants are because of what happened at foxboro. If the jets have just an average NFL coach, they win

Next week I can get on bears with less then 30% of league, and then pack week 9 with prolly lessthen 25%

yisman · 10-21-12, 08:14 PM

I understand how they work perfectly well.

There's no reason to stay away from a team just because they'll likely be a popular pick. You pick based on the likelihood of a team winning and future weeks (saving), not what other people might pick.

And I stand by what I said. The Vikings were a safer pick than the Saints, and there are better weeks to use the Saints.

Came within inches of going to OT.

RMStanley · 10-21-12, 08:23 PM

FYI if anybody else is in the Sportsbook pool, my 3 remaining entries are named "Saints1" and then whichever number.

Pats miracle win saved 2 of my 3 picks. Had the Saints with my other pick.

Regul8er · 10-21-12, 08:26 PM

Tell me a better week to use the saints prior to week 15, since.planning is not necessary?

I have done these for 5 years, never less then 1800 people, and the highest total going undefeated was 7!!! These 7 didn't get here making the popular pick every week, trust me on that.

Saints won by 7....vikes won by 7. Both picks worked out exactly fine, expect I may be able to use the vikes again, while the saints are untouchable until week 15