Originally posted on 09/09/2023:

As you can see, placing a bet too early can be devastating. Rule of thumb says that I never change a pick after posting so I'm 0-1 for the year.

Here's the rest of the Week One action.

Panthers +3.5 over the Falcons

I'm thinking Bryce Young has a big first game, maybe not winning this outright but keeping it close. Need to see more of Desmond Ridder before I start betting on him. The Falcons have the better overall team but I'll go with the road dog here.

Houston vs -10 Baltimore

Ravens will want Lamar to start the season with a bang so I'm expecting them to light it up for the home crowd. Ten points is an awful lot as it always leaves that backdoor cover open, but not today. I'm liking the Ravens here.

Bengals -1.5 at the Browns

Browns were looking good in the preseason but that means squat right now. It all depends on wether Burrow suits up or not. Right now? I'm thinking he does and that's enough to beat that spread on the road.

Jags -4.5 over the Colts

Tough to pick against the home team in a division game but with Jacksonville is billing itself as a team that's capable of going deep in the playoffs. You have to beat a team with a rookie starter in his first game. Jags by a touchdown here.

Buccaneers at the -5.5 Vikings

Vikings should light it up at home because who knows what their defense is like this year. Baker Mayfield doesn't scare me much.

Titans +3 over the Saints

Interesting game here as I'm wondering which offense will dominate more, the Titans running game or the Saints passing game? I'm thinking Tennesse controls the clock in the second half and grinds out a road win to start the season. The over (41.5) seems like a good pick too.

49ers -2.5 over the Steelers

That defense needs to come up big with Kittle looking iffy right now. Will Brock Purdy continue his majic? Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh is no small task but if you're going back to the NFC title game you're winning games like this. Niners by a FG.

Cardinals at the -7 Commanders

I know it's the first game but we'll see how well Sam Howell runs this offense. It's not like the Cardinals defense is a juggernaut so they should win this one easily. Commanders defense should set the tone early. Washington should roll.

Packers +1.5 over the Bears

I like Jordan Love with this offense and I think he'll be better than most expect. Justin Fields will run crazy as usual, will he rise up now that he has some weapons? Packers still have a good defense. I think they squeak this one out late. Green Bay with the upset.

Raiders at -3.5 Broncos
A Russell Wilson comeback? We'll see about that but the Denver defense is still pretty good. Jimmy Garoppolo gets his shot with the Raiders offense. This should be a nasty division game. Broncos with the home win and cover.

Dolphins at the -3 Chargers

Miami starting the season on the Left Coast this year, in they can run the ball against that Charger defense then they have a shot. I'm not sure the Dolphins O-line is up to the task. It'll be up to Tua to win this one. My gut tells me the Chargers grind this one out for the home W.

Eagles -4 over the Patriots

Birds have the more talented team here and even though it's Tom Brady Day in Foxborough, the Patriots will need a big defensive effort to stop Jalen Hurts. Birds by 10.

Rams at -4.5 Seahawks

No Cooper Kupp with a possible IR stint coming smells like the Rams might be tanking this year. Too early to tell. But it's not easy going into Seattle and scraping out a win. Too many question marks on the Rams to keep it close. Seahawks roll.

Cowboys -3.5 over the Giants

A tough division matchup and I'd love to see the Cowboys get crushed but I'm not sure two rookie cornerbacks can handle Lamb and Co. here. Dallas by a TD.

Bills -3 over the Jets

I admit, I'm partial against Aaron Rodgers. I think the tank is empty here and he's just running on fumes. Two great defenses should keep this tight but I'm going with the Bills. Gut call here.

Good luck everyone, fade at your own risk!