NFL Week 1 Handicapper Report

Jeff Grant · 09-06-12, 04:59 PM

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Setting the Table

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is going to feel like he never left Texas A&M, as he returns to the Lone Star State for the second time since being selected in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.

In handicapping this contest, it's important to look past the double-digit spread and realize that Tannehill has an advantage over other rookie signal-callers that will hit the gridiron this weekend, as his collegiate head coach is serving as offensive coordinator in South Beach.

The Houston Texans made their first-ever appearance in the playoffs last year, which has this franchise looking to build off that momentum. Quarterback Matt Schaub is back in the fold after suffering a season-ending foot injury in Week 10.

Situational Trends

Sports bettors may be inclined to lay this number due to the Texans being 2-0 ATS as home favorites of 7.5 to 14 points the last two years, but the Dolphins counter that argument with their 12-4 ATS mark on the road in the same span.

I must point out that the host has managed to cover just one game as double-digit chalk in its history, which should at least have you hesitate for a second at the betting window.

Betting Market

The Texans opened up as 6.5-point home favorites, but that number exited the building a long time ago, with most sports offering a number in the 12 to 13-point range. I'd never suggest joining this crowd under any circumstances.

State of Mind

If you're interested in playing the biggest road underdog of Week 1, I suggest you get into the fray right now, as I don't see this number continuing to run in the direction its continually gone.

I'll leave you with this.

I remember being so excited to play the Texans in their last two season openers against their biggest rival—I wonder how their locker room feels about reminiscing about that.

Jeff Grant · 09-07-12, 10:07 AM

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

Setting the Table
The Indianapolis Colts focused heavily on the passing game during the preseason, with rookie Andrew Luck getting plenty of reps under center after being taken with the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. Starting out on the road is always a daunting task for a rebuilding franchise.

Chicago has paired quarterback Jay Cutler with a familiar target in wide receiver Brandon Marshall, as they played together in the Mile High City. Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice's biggest challenge is keeping his star player upright, considering no other player has been sacked more since he arrived in the Windy City.

Situational Trends

Sports bettors have burned through a lot of money backing Cutler at home during his career, posting an 8-19-1 ATS mark in that situation, but that may change if he can stay on the field with running back Matt Forte. In 2011, the Bears were 5-1 at home when both huddled up together, while they covered four of those contests.

A new-look Colts squad is going to be difficult to handicap early on, but I'm not sure they've made up a gap of failing to cover the Las Vegas number by 18 points on average in their eight road losses last year.

Betting Market

The Bears have stayed within the nine to 10-point range in terms of being favored in this matchup, which is notable due to Luck's solid performance during the exhibition schedule. The total is currently three points higher than its opening number, which isn't very surprising.

State of Mind

I'd be a little concerned with the host looking ahead to next week's game in Green Bay, which doesn't fit well with the franchise's 4-4 ATS mark in season openers under head coach Lovie Smith. I'm still leaning in the direction of laying this number, as the Colts defense is much better indoors.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Setting the Table

The Buffalo Bills made some major moves on the defensive side of the ball during the offseason, but improving one of the league's worst pass rushes comes in handy when facing the New England Patriots two times a year—not the New York Jets.

Rex Ryan has made it clear that he's looking to return to his ground-and-pound mentality on offense, which will be a priority for new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano, who also is known for his "Wildcat" package.

From a season-opener perspective, the Jets have been very good in this situation since 2009, allowing just 13.7 points per game. Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has compiled a disappointing 71.1 quarterback rating in six career games in this series.

Situational Trends

The road team has had the upper hand in terms of grabbing the cash in this series, covering eight of the last nine meetings, which fits nicely with the underdog going 10-3 vs. the Las Vegas number.

Betting Market

Sports bettors will definitely notice a major shift in the NFL betting odds for this contest, as the Bills have moved to 2.5-point road underdogs in some spots, which is a far cry from getting 9.5 points in last year's 28-24 loss at MetLife Stadium.

Due the the lack of offense the Jets displayed in four preseason games, the total has fallen by two points in just the last week to settle in at 38.5.

State of Mind

Virtually all value has been lost on backing the Bills in this divisional affair, which allows me to make a point in terms of Week 1 NFL betting. Don't get too involved in games if you're not getting the best of it. The Jets may be worth a look at this point due to their 7-3 straight-up record in season openers in this series.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Setting the Table

The New England Patriots will look to move past their Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants last year, but it won't be easy against the Tennessee Titans, as Sunday will be the 137th consecutive sellout at LP Field.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is coming off a 5,235-yard campaign, which makes this one of the more lopsided match ups under center from a statistical standpoint, as former Washington Huskies star Jake Locker gets a chance to start in his second year in the league.

The Titans have won eight of their 13 regular-season home openers inside this venue, as they look to snap the Patriots' streak of eight consecutive wins to open a new campaign, which is the longest such run in the National Football League.

Situational Trends

Sports bettors will find that the Patriots are 7-4-1 in its last 12 games as a road favorite the last two years, while the Titans are 2-1 ATS as a home underdog in the same span.
Brady's 28-13 run against the Las Vegas number away from Foxborough must be respected, but teams that lost out on the opportunity of winning a ring in the league's biggest game are 1-13 ATS when opening on the road the following year.

Betting Market

Oddsmakers felt comfortable in opening the defending AFC champions as seven-point road favorites in this contest, especially since they scored a 38-24 season-opening road win over the Miami Dolphins in the same situation last year.
Over the last seven days, the line has moved off that key number, which is significant due to the amount of public action this AFC matchup will receive over the next couple days.

State of Mind

The Titans never cracked the seven-point barrier in the market, which is definitely a signal that sharp action came in at that level. At this point, I suggest waiting until kickoff to see if that number makes a guest appearance on the odds board.

Jeff Grant · 09-07-12, 10:13 AM

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

Setting the Table

There's a tremendous amount of coach and player movement in football nowadays, which makes it extremely difficult to handicapping in the opening weeks. One known commodity that enters back into the fray is St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher, who comes back after a one-year hiatus after leaving the Tennessee Titans.

The Detroit Lions are coming off their first playoff experience in more than a decade, with most of their team intact, including the explosive offensive combo of wide receiver Calvin Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford.

If you simply look at the offensive numbers from 2011, the Lions are the obvious play, but that approach isn't going to work in this line of work.

Situational Trends

Fisher will likely watch the movie Remember the Titans before taking the field on Sunday, as he finished his long-term reign in Nashville with a 15-9-1 ATS mark as a road underdog. He also kicks off the season against one of his former defensive coordinators on the other sideline.

Before you load up on this angle—beware that his new franchise is 1-10 ATS as September underdogs of five or more points.

Betting Market

Sports bettors will find that the Lions are still above a key number (seven) on the odds board, which is definitely something to monitor over the next few days. Early action from total players landed squarely on the UNDER, as I feel many fans aren't going to play the other side until they see if the Rams offense has improved.

State of Mind

The NFL is now a quarterback-driven league, wiping out one of the better football handicapping angles, which is backing a team with the better running game.
I'll be watching closely to see if this type of approach works in this spot.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Setting the Table

The Philadelphia Eagles seem poised to move past their disappointing campaign of a year ago, posting a perfect 4-0 preseason record, which included a 27-10 win as 4.5-point road underdogs against this Sunday's opponent on Aug. 24.

Cleveland will be led by rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden, who connected on 24-of-49 passing attempts for 297 yards during the 2012 exhibition schedule. The Browns will try to close the gap between themselves and the three other teams in the AFC North division.

Situational Trends

Sports bettors will quickly find that the Browns have failed to win and cover the spread in their last seven season openers, which seems destined to continue here, as the Eagles won their final four games of a year ago by a staggering 125-43 margin.

In researching this game a couple months ago, I discovered that Philadelphia have won and covered its three season openers under Andy Reid after missing out on the playoffs the previous year.

Betting Market

The Eagles opened up as 6.5-point road favorites, but that number is getting close to reaching double-digit territory. It's important to note that the New England Patriots were the highest-priced favorite away from home a year ago in this spot, coming away with a 38-24 win over the Miami Dolphins.

State of Mind

You won't find me backing many road favorites of this kind during the 2012 NFL season, but the situation fits in my opinion.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Setting the Table

The Washington Redskins enter a pivotal season, as they mortgaged their future in selecting Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Robert Griffin III with the second overall selection in the 2012 NFL draft, which will hopefully pay off in a major way in Mike Shanahan's third year in the nation's capital.

New Orleans will now start playing games that count without Sean Payton on the sidelines, as offensive line coach Aaron Kromer takes over. The Saints won their home games by an average of 23 points last year and will be banking on their fans to produce a wall of sound on Sunday.

Situational Trends

I'm a big situational handicapper, which has me leaning heavily to NFL head coaches that have success against the number in season openers, something that's clearly an advantage for the visitor in this spot.

Betting Market

The Saints opened as 8.5-point favorites after oddsmakers felt comfortable in releasing the number after all the Bountygate suspensions were handed down, but the number has fallen by a full point in most spots. There's been very little movement in the total.

State of Mind

I'm playing the road underdog in this spot, but I'm definitely leery that the oddsmaker may be up to something here. Some will view the line move as sharp action landing on the Redskins, but maybe the public is also under the assumption that the host will start slow due to its tumultuous offseason.