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On MIA-BUF: Miami obviously has certain situational factors going for them (coming off the blowout loss), but I can't help thinking Buffalo wins this game. I looked through Tannehill's game history, and I don't see a single game where he played QB in temperatures even close to the near-freezing conditions in Buffalo. When asked about it, he mentions a few games played in West Texas and that it "gets cold there in the winter", which is bullshit. Cold weather is tough on players not used to the conditions. In terms of rushing, Reggie Bush has had only one game this season where he was really dominant. Otherwise, he's been having a poor year and isn't getting much help from Miami's mediocre offensive line. Buffalo's defense might not be all that good, but Miami isn't bringing a lot to the table here.
Miami's defense has been good on the ground, but they're weak in defending the pass. They can't generate much of a pass rush, and as a result, they're allowing ~280 yards per game through the air. Only the Saints allow more 1st downs passing per game than the Dolphins. Fitzpatrick is not the best QB, but he'll likely have time to work in this game, without too much pressure. In terms of rushing, I actually kind of like that Spiller will be the #1 RB this week. Fred Jackson is a solid option, but Spiller is a star in the making. Gailey has said to expect Spiller to get 25-30 carries in this game, with Choice spotting him here and there. Even from a good run defense like Miami, it's going to take a considerable effort to contain him in this game, and the more attention they have to pay to Spiller, the more opportunities Fitzpatrick will have in passing.
I get that the Dolphins are going to be looking to rebound from last week's embarrassment, but in my mind, the Bills are going to be playing angry in this game after falling just short against NE. The Dolphins have the weather against them, and the stadium is going to be electric in front of a sellout crowd. This is going to be a very hostile environment for the Dolphins to play in. I would expect there to be a buyback on Miami before kickoff after the line has been sliding to Buffalo all week, so I'll be playing them later, but I feel pretty confident in the Bills winning this game.Comment -
Pretty busy today,, when I get some time tonight ill try to respond to every1 and have a few more games up hopefully(kinda tough card)....Comment -
b tailing you on that under per usual
jus 1 player prop for me tonight:
ryan tannehill under 19.5 completions
ryan tannehill under 235.5 yards
parlayed some ncaa wit the buffalo ML for degen action.
EDIT: pussied out & teased buf to +5.5Comment -
joining the under and jinxs pro prop shopComment -
Bank, I don't know how you do it, but your right on about philly. Fowels is pretty sharp and a quick study. With a full weak with 1st team the kid is going to make plays. Granted, he'll make mistakes, compared to what Vick made they should pail in comparision. Skins won't be able to apply the pressure needed to shake him up. He gets rid of ball alot quicker (2.74 secs middle of pack) which isn't saying alot (only Wilson takes more time than Vick). Timing will be better. Don't expect them to bounce off recieviers heads ala Avant, who slipped on play, and is out for sunday. Birds need to find out if he's their QB for next year. Should be improvement to broken O. Expect at least 24 pts which is a total reached 1 time this season (wk 2 Baltimore) Will that be enough?... Skins are a 2 trick poney, RG3 and A Morris, receiving corps is depleted.
Everyone knows Reid is gone after this season. He's still a good coach and will take pride in preparing team to move on without him. Gut feeling...maybe I'm a homer but expect a spark of life which is something I wouldn't have said if Vick was QB sunday.Comment -
oopes folesComment -
pale, week, Foles...need to edit before posting. Played golf today. Too much time at 19th hole.Comment -
Friend roped me into extra work after work, outside with damn flashlight helmet! Lol,,, joining u on the props jinxComment -
what a shi*ty ass over that was.Comment -
fukkin punt return and kick return, what can ya do? special teams reason behind 2 of the 3 losses we've took on these...offenses performing like shit certainly hasnt been a problem on the thu night shitfest (although bills offense hasnt been bad, just cant punch anything in)... i put in a pretty big live bet under 54.5 after the mia kick return, didnt bother looking for middle at half, hopefully it doesnt burn me...
i guess we had 1 gm where the 1st half under hit and gm went over,,think this gonna be the get back where we lose 1st half under but gm stays under...blahComment -
i hear u felt the same way. tried to make up for it by jumping on some half time bets:
MIAMI @ BUFFALO / TOTAL POINTS U/O 48.5 / UNDER 48.5 POINTS @ 1.76
MIAMI @ BUFFALO / TOTAL POINTS U/O 39.5 / UNDER 39.5 POINTS @ 4.10
MIAMI @ BUFFALO / TOTAL POINTS U/O 44.5 / UNDER 44.5 POINTS @ 2.36Comment -
i guess cause im a little crazy is best answer i can give? honestly i think phi is the better team here and wins this gm so taking 3.5 (and ml at some point) seems to make plenty of sense to me...far as total i dunno, phi defense not bad and again i think starting to be a book on containing skins offense, even when they drive they have struggled in red zone and phi plays solid red zone d so looking at some potential long drives where you may only get 3...id think reid would lean on mccoy more than usual but you never really know w andy as he might have foles come out slinging it..obviously phi been horrible in red zone but 1 would think it cant get any worse (seriously)...i put between 43-47 so i didnt think much of the total as they stuck it right in middle of my range of scores, wouldnt shock me if it went higher but happy with the side...gl if you play it..Comment -
such a ugly gm,,,i love me some home dogs and kc does the kind of things i like in a doggy, they rush and have a solid enough defense, unfortunately they also turn the ball over a ton, are poorly coached, and arnt getting anything out of the qb position... another problem with kc is although i think the pass d is solid they do give up the highest yards per completion in the league, enter aj green (not good)...cant help but wonder if cincy coming off a brutal stretch and getting a W vs nyg doesnt propel them to make a little push with their weak upcoming schedule... not a huge fan of the cincy side but think it them or pass...Comment -
im shying away from that dallas pick this week. cowboys just a team I can't trust.
just did a parlay GB ML / BAL ML
these are my 2 fav plays this week. i like baltimore more. I used to fade Byron Leftwich back when he was considered semi-good. Can't wait to do it again. Not playing that -3.5 shit but ML all day. Fully understand baltimore has a shit defense, but I still don't think Leftwich does anything. Pitt may move the chains with their running game but I don't see TD's from them.
bank you got a side to that oak / aints game i forget? I leaned new orleans now Im not so sure.. can't trust em on the road. think the ML is safe?Comment -
no way do i trust dal to cover that number,,i suppose you could tease dal down but id rather tease pats/broncos as i trust both of them a lot more than cowgirls...gun to head id prob take the points with the brownies but havnt decided yet...
i never trust the Aints, even tho they are running the ball now their d is still shit, not like oak d much better tho..would think over be a possibility as i like oak overs of late but not as sure bout this one as it so damn high and could be some rain...if you making me i guess i take saints ml, damn sure not betting oak.. again this card seems tough to me this week, only things i have played are phi and that ml parlay, some of that is cause i havnt had a lot of time but a lot of it is the few times ive sat down and worked on card i didnt come up with a whole lot i liked (bunch of dont likes, not so many likes)...Comment -
Bungals-3 -115...1.15 to 1u...wasnt gonna touch this gm and this certainly not the kind of bet i like with horrible perception on the home dog and cincy coming off a impressive showing but once it got down to this number i couldnt resist...like i mentioned above while i dont think cincy is all that good of a team i think after a tough stretch of gms schedule sets up nicely for them to make a little push before reality comes crashing back in the last 4 gms...again like i said above this generally a spot where id look at the home dog but kc is getting absolutely no production out of the qb position, i think quinn is cleared to play again, no idea who starting but does it really matter? the one thing i kept coming back to that ultimately has me on the square ass road fav here is kc yards per completion against, doesnt matter if you play good defense if you giving up big plays and cincy is certainly capable of taking adv of this with aj green and company,,,whether kc uses last weeks effort where they should have won as a springboard for success or not i guess is the question? the last time kc played a good gm was when they absolutely dominated the ravens (in a gm we were on kc) only to lose in typical kc fashion turning the ball over in scoring range at least 4 times i can remember, next gm they went to tampa and got curb stomped, not great comparison i guess as kc was home for balty then went on road where this time they were on road at pit and now back at home but close as i could find to try and gauge how i thought they would play after a gm they gave it all and came up short...Comment -
talked about the colts/pats gm plenty and still feel same that pats will dominate this gm but all those points has me pretty scared of a backdoor..almost for sure i will tease pats and either broncos or another team yet to be determined but in meantime here how im attacking this gm...
pats -5.5 1st half 1.5x... i guess if they dont cover this it leaves me options for the 2nd half but honestly believe this the type of gm brady and bellicheat live for and what pats been doing this season sets up nicely against indy defense, pats attempt 2nd most rushes in the league and that something teams have not been doing on indy lately for whatever reason, i think they will pound the rock with ridley and control this gm from the offensive side keeping luck on the sideline, obviously Luck will get his when he on the field as we know pats secondary has issues, that said ya know bellicheat will take wayne away and make the other guys beat them and for as well as indy has played they only a 50/50 prop once they get in scoring range, trading fgs for tds will get them down quick in this gm....Comment -
if pit moving the ball running i think leftwich is capable of hitting a few over the top,,,def think if you like balt ml is way to go as this gm almost always comes down to a fg it seems (5 of last 7 i believe)..almost certain ill be on pit and the points, dont know who wins just playing the percentages that taking a fg or more in this matchup generally works out and i have no faith/respect for ravens offense on the road...Comment -
bank this will be are day tomorrow .you have a real good bet NE the 1 half hell yes NE should kill INDY NE really like's to jump on the team real fast glComment -
bank u kno im not a totals guy but that kc/ cin under looks nice to me. what u think?Comment -
Steelers win u lose take Pgh pts at home abs eagles and carolina
QUOTE=2daBank;16811856]if pit moving the ball running i think leftwich is capable of hitting a few over the top,,,def think if you like balt ml is way to go as this gm almost always comes down to a fg it seems (5 of last 7 i believe)..almost certain ill be on pit and the points, dont know who wins just playing the percentages that taking a fg or more in this matchup generally works out and i have no faith/respect for ravens offense on the road...[/QUOTE]Comment -
cle/dal ov 43.5 1x ...this why i took so long to post my fav over of the week, not only is it scary to me cause this could easily play out lower with teams i dont exactly trust in the red zone, but was waiting on haden's status as cle a much better d with him in lineup (from what i understand he not playing)...murry not gonna play and nov typically romo's month so think dal will pass w success,,dal little banged up in front 7 and cle has a solid oline, think Richardson can do some work (hopefully in red zone) and the line doesnt give up sacks so weeden will have a chance when cle passing, both teams in the top 10 in pass attempts per gm which i love for a over as only good things happening whether it simply clock stoppages, turnovers, big plays....Comment -
Haden will be game-time decision (though i think that he will sit). that's good news for over backers. this is the kind of injury that, even if he plays, he will be slowed and could get reinjured at any time. that's why i think the Browns sit him. things are bad enough without having to play the game a DB down because they start Haden and he's not effective or tweaks it early and has to sit.Comment -
yea Biff, even if he plays a gimpy haden vs dez ill like our chances long as dez feels like playing today, lol..
i just decided i really like lambs..i posted thoughts in another thread gonna copy and paste it real quick..
yea pats Team total was something i was considering as well..Comment -
oblique injury will slow him regardless. not the kind of injury you want for a #1 corner.
Pats 1H now -6', unreal. may have to go with TT since i missed -6. eh, probably shouldn't matter much.
if you're on Lambs, i likely will be with you. you know your team and Jets are a penetrating dumpster fire.
like a lot of TT overs today: Eagles 20, Pack 27', Pats 31, Raiders 24Comment -
my guy steve nash aka bill hill (from another site) made a rare nfl post on this gm and i have the utmost respect for mr nash but i disagree with him here
stl-3 -130 1.3 to 1... im with the whole perception thing but sometimes the majorities perception and reality just happen to line up...i not one to overact from week to week this all about body of work and 2 teams going opposite directions...Howie longs kid should abuse that guy jets call a tackle and be causing Sanchize all kinds of problems in the backfield and rams corners match up extremely well against those wrs...then we got schottenheimer who obviously rex knows well but he was kinda made the scapegoat in that shithole, great move rex cause that offense humming now (lol), i think Marty's kid got the offensive talent coming together against a jet defense that gonna be forced to choose to take run away, ive been prob most critical guy in stl about Bradford since before the draft, this the 1st year i been saying quite a bit how much improvement he has made, if jets sell out to stop run with a 46 d (which i think they will almost have to do) they have no one to check amendola gonna have to bracket him and that gonna leave the young kids on the outside with opportunities against not that talented of a secondary... most who know me know im pretty unbiased as far as rams go and i think they put up a solid performance in this gm, think that why total going up as well even tho this a gm im sure more like the under, it damn sure not nyj offense vs rams d making that total climb...i obvioulsy wasnt trying to play them -3 -135 or whatever stupid shit it hung around all week, still hard to for me to feel good about laying 3.5 with lambs but honestly think they cover this pretty easily.. i know i say this then i buy the hook which penetrating pains me as i hate juice in nfl but i mean it 20 extra bucks that could save a loser...Comment
