SSK's NFL ML Thread

[ssk13809]

Does it really matter? Its not like your really betting these games. Just admit it, and I promise to go easy on you.

I am, though it might not be that much, and 30% of maybe my small bankroll, but still worth it.

[ScottLocke]

The rest of my bets for the weekend



Saw the Falcons line dropped (shockingly)

I'll take 2 Team Parlay


Falcons -3
Falcons -175 ML


Risk 5
Win 9


I know I know, this seems like a trap the way the line has moved. But I don't care. I know what Matt Ryan can do at home, and I have seen what Carson Palmer can do period. Didn't put too much on it because I already have SO much on Atlanta.



3 Team Parlay


Ravens -675
Saints -725
Seahawks -270


Risk 10
Win 8



Already mentioned this. Would've added Atlanta too if I already didn't have 3 separate bets on them.



3 Team Parlay

Bears -155
Dolphins +130
Titans -160


Risk 1.9
Win 10



I couldn't find any big upsets this week. So I just set up a 3 Team Parlay with some of the closest games this week and predicting how they will go. Not much risk.

No sorry dude, wrong answer

You don't put your bets in, if so, the book would have disallowed this pick I highlighted for you above. If there is a book that actually takes this bet, please direct me to them so I can get rich fast!! Can't believe you call yourself a real capper when you don't know simple stuff like this.

[ssk13809]

No sorry dude, wrong answer

You don't put your bets in, if so, the book would have disallowed this pick I highlighted for you above. If there is a book that actually takes this bet, please direct me to them so I can get rich fast!! Can't believe you call yourself a real capper when you don't know simple stuff like this.

I have a bookie who I just give my bets to. He confirmed that bet. That's all I care and know about.

[ScottLocke]

Let me show you some awesome picks I could make this week if you would just direct me to your bookie!!!

2 team parlay, bet 5 to win 9
Falcons ML -175
Falcons -3

Bengals +3 5.5 to win 5

2 team parlay 5 to win 9.5
Pittsburgh ML -160
Pittsburgh -3

Miami +3... 5.5 to win 5




And I could do that for every single game for the rest of my life and get rich risk free!!! Would be so awesome, I really can't wait til you give me this bookie. Whenever the dog wins, I break even, whenever the Favorite wins, I WIN!! Such an awesome system!!!

[ssk13809]

Out of curiosity why would it be disallowed?

They both have lines like any bet (-130) and (-175). So how is this different from any 2 Bet Parlay?

[ScottLocke]

You might as well move to another board now, nobody is gonna follow you after this, unless they are a complete fool.

[ScottLocke]

Out of curiosity why would it be disallowed?

They both have lines like any bet (-130) and (-175). So how is this different from any 2 Bet Parlay?

This is why you are a newb. If Atlanta covers the -3, they are gonna win the ML leg of the parlay EVERY SINGLE TIME. By this logic, why not always parlay the favorite with the ml and get paid more rather than just betting them straight up against the spread.

[ssk13809]

You might as well move to another board now, nobody is gonna follow you after this, unless they are a complete fool.

My bookie posts on this forum (well doesn't post but has an account)

So he can explain it. Maybe he just thinks I am going to lose (Since I talk so much) so he actually doesn't book my action. Either way, he confirmed it and thats the bet I got.


I bet he wouldn't allow me to do Bengals +3 Risk 5.5 to Win 5. Though I should try.

[ScottLocke]

My bookie posts on this forum (well doesn't post but has an account)

So he can explain it. Maybe he just thinks I am going to lose (Since I talk so much) so he actually doesn't book my action. Either way, he confirmed it and thats the bet I got.


I bet he wouldn't allow me to do Bengals +3 Risk 5.5 to Win 5. Though I should try.

So amazing you just keep lying. Unless your book is just some friend you bet with and is also as clueless as you.

[ssk13809]

This is why you are a newb. If Atlanta covers the -3, they are gonna win the ML leg of the parlay EVERY SINGLE TIME. By this logic, why not always parlay the favorite with the ml and get paid more rather than just betting them straight up against the spread.

I already have admit in the past I have not bet very much. I'm a NFL expert 1st. Check my Original Post. I excel in picking winners (straight up not ATS) finishing 90+% percentile in NFL Pick'Em every year. Combine that with good math intuition and I have found success in ML betting.

Nonetheless, I'll admit once again I am not a very experienced gambler. Prior to this year, maybe 50 bets total, and this is the 1st time I am really doing Parlays. So go figure.


I'm not winning because I'm a great sports bettor and know sports gambling inside out.

I am winning because of my NFL expertise.

[ScottLocke]

I already have admit in the past I have not bet very much. I'm a NFL expert 1st. Check my Original Post. I excel in picking winners (straight up not ATS) finishing 90+% percentile in NFL Pick'Em every year. Combine that with good math intuition and I have found success in ML betting.

Nonetheless, I'll admit once again I am not a very experienced gambler. Prior to this year, maybe 50 bets total, and this is the 1st time I am really doing Parlays. So go figure.


I'm not winning because I'm a great sports bettor and know sports gambling inside out.

I am winning because of my NFL expertise.

Ok so you admit you didn't actually get this bet in, because bookies are in this to make money, and making money by allowing bets like that would be IMPOSSIBLE. You are basically getting the Falcons a -3 +180 while you could also get the Bengals at +3 -110. Just trying to make u understand that bets like this cannot be made, go try it on any site online, it won't happen, not anywhere.

[ssk13809]

Ok so you admit you didn't actually get this bet in, because bookies are in this to make money, and making money by allowing bets like that would be IMPOSSIBLE. You are basically getting the Falcons a -3 +180 while you could also get the Bengals at +3 -110. Just trying to make u understand that bets like this cannot be made, go try it on any site online, it won't happen, not anywhere.

Like I said, I email my bets to my bookie, and he confirmed them. I didn't do it in any online book. So once again, maybe he thinks Atlanta will lose and didn't put the bet in. He just wouldn't allow the Bengals bet. Bookies do that. You are such an experienced bettor you should know that. Bookies also have their leans and shades.

You don't think bookies sometimes gamble and not actually book "square action" hoping they can make a bigger profit? LOL?

And since I'm betting through my bookie, he probably wouldn't allow the Bengals bet.

[ssk13809]

For example,


If someone gave me

Chargers -300
Chargers -9

last week, and I was a bookie. I wouldn't book that action, yet confirm it, and not allow any bet on the dog. Because I thought the Rams had a great shot at winning, and if they did win I would make a lot more profit.



ScottLocke you claim to have so much experience in betting yet you don't even know how bookies think and work.

[hitman2010]

ScottLocke, do you have your own topic? I would like to see what ur picks this week. TY.

[ScottLocke]

LOL just amazing how stubborn you are, no bookie would allow this. Maybe he overlooked it when he confirmed it, if so, there is no chance you get paid if it wins. Having the Falcons -3 +180 just isn't profitable for the bookie no matter how you look at it.

I'm thinking of starting up a thread on this parlay of yours to get some more discussion on it. Sound like a good idea?

[ssk13809]

LOL just amazing how stubborn you are, no bookie would allow this. Maybe he overlooked it when he confirmed it, if so, there is no chance you get paid if it wins. Having the Falcons -3 +180 just isn't profitable for the bookie no matter how you look at it.

I'm thinking of starting up a thread on this parlay of yours to get some more discussion on it. Sound like a good idea?

No because once again I am not an experienced gambler

Once again, I win because of my sports skills not gambling skills. You can already see my poor bankroll management skills.



But once again, all I did was e-mail that bet, he confirmed it. Maybe he did overlook it. I don't know. Never tried anything like it. But I'll ask him and let you know.

[ScottLocke]

ScottLocke, do you have your own topic? I would like to see what ur picks this week. TY.

I do, I don't release my picks until Saturday. All my picks are posted in my thread.

[ScottLocke]

Ok, if he accepts that bet, I suggest you put half of your money on it. Lets just say that would be 127 units for arguments sake. You then have...

2 team parlay 50 units to win 90 units
Falcons ML
Falcons -3

So if the falcons win you have a total of 140 units, 90 won plus 50 back.

Then go to another bookie and bet this.

Bengals +3 77 units to win 70units

So if the Bengals win, you have 147 units, 70 won, plus your 77 back.


In either case, you have more units than you started with. Its a can't lose bet.

[ssk13809]

Sorry I'm too confident Atlanta will win.
Enough so that the effort to find another bookie to the Bengals action is not worth it.


A:

Confidence on Atlanta
90 Unit Profit
Potential Loss

B:

Confidence on Bengals
20 Unit Guarantee Profit
Find another bookie


The arguments for A are stronger for me.

[dwang0725]

For example,


If someone gave me

Chargers -300
Chargers -9

last week, and I was a bookie. I wouldn't book that action, yet confirm it, and not allow any bet on the dog. Because I thought the Rams had a great shot at winning, and if they did win I would make a lot more profit.



ScottLocke you claim to have so much experience in betting yet you don't even know how bookies think and work.

ssk13809, ScottLocke is right. No bookie in their right mind would take that bet, not in a million years. Regardless of the outcome or if he is willing to take the bet on the other side, he is giving up waaaaaay too much odds. He would basically be giving you 5:9 odds that the favorites win. Even if he won't take the other side bet, you could easily give that side to someone else, making your original bet riskless (acutally, just pay vig since it would be win 5 and lose 5.5). Think of it this way, would a bookie allow you book a free ML wager?

In your case, I think your bookie might have booked it by mistake. If not, I don't see how he could still be in business.

[ssk13809]

In your case, I think your bookie might have booked it by mistake. If not, I don't see how he could still be in business.

Yeah just heard from my bookie, he said he overlooked it (it was late at night) and is voiding that parlay.


Oh well.

[ScottLocke]

You say you are good at math. You gotta look at the long run. If you run the Falcons game 100 times, you will not average coming out ahead >>>20 units. Therefore obviously the play would be betting both sides and taking the guaranteed profit. But i'm sure since your so good at math, you already that. You just like to gamboooool it up I guess.

[ssk13809]

Well my top pick of the week (Falcons)
are playing like they should and like I thought



But LMAO at Ravens and Saints

[ssk13809]

Well let me be straight-up honest. I had a bad week.

Though there were some bright spots, including my 2 best picks coming through (I hope people took them), Saints losing it ruined the day. That was just sad.


Falcons -190 ML Win 10
Falcons -3.5 Win 5
Seahawks -5.5 Win 7
3 Team Parlay Lose 10 (Saints Lose wow)
3 Team Parlay Lose 1.9


So that makes us +10.1 for the day. Which is approximately only a 10% increase in the bankroll. Obviously, not a good week in the NFL.



Nonetheless, the week isn't over. Will do a MNF play making this week at least average.

[ssk13809]

One thing I learned from this week

With those Favorite Parlays, don't just pick a team just because they are big favorites. Like the Saints. To be honest, I thought the Browns could upset. But I still picked Saints since they were such a big favorite in my parlay. Bad idea. In fact, I was about to take Browns ML (Good Value Play) because I thought they had a shot at an upset. But I didn't, because I had NO in my Parlay, so it wouldn't make sense for me to take CLE ML.

I've learned from this mistake, and am moving on.

[ssk13809]

For MNF. I'm going to play safe.


Cowboys -195 ML
Risk 4.9 to win 2.5


I could put more, but I'll play it safe. They should win though. I expect blowout. But going to down to the wire is also a very good possibility, in which case anything can happen if we are with Dallas.


Add to this

Giants -3 2nd Half
Risk 6 to win 5

[ssk13809]

So far....





Straight ML Bets: 5-3 (Avg. Bet Odds +132)
ATS Picks: 3-0-1
Parlay Record: 1-3 (Avg. Bet Odds +205)



Overall: +20.4 Units (20.4% Bank-roll increase)



Slow start for 3 weeks of action. I'll pick it up though. Really dissapointed with my Parlay record. That Bengals blowing 21-14 lead with 2 minutes left their Ball in TB territory, and last week NO losing to CLE at home, is the reason I'm 1-3 instead of 3-1. Oh well.


But my straight ML picks have been okay. Especially considering odds +165, going 5-2 there is decent. And when I get selective on ATS picks, 3-0-1 is what happens.

[ssk13809]

Though keeping things updated in my sig now.


Let's hope for a stronger next week!

[hitman2010]

ssk, do you think that Dallas game will be Over 45?

Great job ssk, keep it up.

[ssk13809]

ssk, do you think that Dallas game will be Over 45?

Great job ssk, keep it up.

You know my thoughts on Over/Unders

[BetterBizness]

I love SSK ... I've recently stumbled into here and found it refreshing... Someone whose "expertise" is making every "real" capper on SBR hide in a basement somewhere waiting for Sunday to come and be gone...

between the things he says in this thread and Kroyrunners... It maybe the best thing to hit SBR since I don't know when...

Things I've learned...

How to Bet Parlays...

Falcons -3
Falcons -175 ML


Risk 5
Win 9

How to bet and parlay Favorites...

Remember I bet Colts ML. And I said the game could be a push with Colts winning by 3 if things go wrong. They did. They pushed. I still won. That's what you call a strong pick.

Let me tell you something, the home team always has more "luck" than the road team. You should give the home team the "luck" edge right from the start so you don't complain about it later. I was talking about "bad luck" with the home teams. That is just sad. Like Bengals up 7 in TB territory at home with 2 something left in the 4th. They lose. Now that's bad luck.

But remember that, the home team usually is more lucky. And the strong home teams always seem to come out on top in the end. The Vikkings are a strong home team, have always been. Tom Brady hasn't lost at home since 2006 regular season. Enough said.

Case in point:

3 Team Parlay

Ravens -675
Saints -725
Seahawks -270


Risk 10
Win 8.

Betting Totals...

Honestly, over/unders are the worst things to bet in sports. They are the most unpredictable and the teams you bet on don't give a sh*t about the over/unders either. Making things even more unpredictable and basically a guessing game.

How to find the right Bookie:

Yeah just heard from my bookie, he said he overlooked it (it was late at night) and is voiding that parlay.

(Atl -3 + Atl ML)

And of course:

How NOT to talk out of your azz...

One thing I learned from this week

With those Favorite Parlays, don't just pick a team just because they are big favorites. Like the Saints. To be honest, I thought the Browns could upset. But I still picked Saints since they were such a big favorite in my parlay. Bad idea. In fact, I was about to take Browns ML (Good Value Play) because I thought they had a shot at an upset. But I didn't, because I had NO in my Parlay, so it wouldn't make sense for me to take CLE ML.

...

But at least the man stays humble...

GL Kroy. You definitely need it.

I excel in picking winners (straight up not ATS) finishing 90+% percentile in NFL Pick'Em every year. Combine that with good math intuition and I have found success in ML betting.

I'm not winning because I'm a great sports bettor and know sports gambling inside out.

I am winning because of my NFL expertise.

All we need in the coming weeks is a Brandon Lang 1000 Dime ML when Buffalo plays Pit (-1200) and this thread will be complete....

[BetterBizness]

As much as I'm sarcastic SSK... I know you're not a gambler, and I think you may figure it out one day... But you say some funny sheit in the meanwhile and this thread is entertaining as fvck!

[Rod1010]

ya lol its so funny that he dosent realise thats everyone knows hes just a noob haha. oh lol this is so funny.

[ssk13809]

I love SSK ... I've recently stumbled into here and found it refreshing... Someone whose "expertise" is making every "real" capper on SBR hide in a basement somewhere waiting for Sunday to come and be gone...

between the things he says in this thread and Kroyrunners... It maybe the best thing to hit SBR since I don't know when...

Things I've learned...

How to Bet Parlays...



How to bet and parlay Favorites...



Case in point:



Betting Totals...



How to find the right Bookie:

(Atl -3 + Atl ML)

And of course:

How NOT to talk out of your azz...

...

But at least the man stays humble...



All we need in the coming weeks is a Brandon Lang 1000 Dime ML when Buffalo plays Pit (-1200) and this thread will be complete....

And your point is? I don't claim to be an experienced bettor. Though I am an NFL Expert. All my plays and results are legit. And I will continue to win. Without a doubt. Actually, past 3 weeks have been below average for me.

[ScottLocke]

You guys are such haters, its obviously his first year and with that taken into consideration he isn't doing too bad. He'll get through all the rookie mistakes.