rsnnh12's $10 Teaser Challenge

[rsnnh12]

Hi everyone

I thought I would try an experiment. Starting with $10, I will bet on a 3 team, 10 point teaser every week, picking what I feel are the strongest plays. If I win the first week, I will roll the winnings into the next week, and place all of that into a new teaser. I will play this out till the end of the season, or until I lose. If I lose, I will try one more time, starting the next week, again with $10.

I will be using 5Dimes for this challenge. They pay out (-115) for 3 team teasers, with 10 points, and ties REDUCING. If all 3 plays are at half points when I place the bet, I will change it to a ties lose bet, which pays (-110). I have a feeling I will be doing mostly "reducing" for this though.

I am new to sports betting, but am big into stocks, and I am taking a strategy from that into this challenge. That strategy is, essentially, compounding interest. Each win will pay out ~87% of the bet. I ran the math on this, and am posting below the approximate expected bankroll, if I continue to win. (Note- "week" represents what week the NFL is in, since I am starting this in week 4)

Week 4- $10--->$18.70
Week 5- $18.70--->$34.97
Week 6- $34.97--->$65.39
Week 7- $65.39--->$122.28
Week 8- $122.28--->$228.67
Week 9- $228.67--->$427.61
Week 10- $427.61--->$799.63

You see where this is going. If I can make it into week 8 without losing ($100 mark), I will probably be taking $10 out to use a different set of 3 teasers each week, continuing in this pattern.

Again, I am only taking what I feel are the strongest NFL teasers each week. I will use this thread to post my early thoughts on Mon-Wed, and list my final choice when I make it heading into the weekend. I will pick out 5-8 games per week that I am looking at, and encourage anyone to post their thoughts on those matchups. I will list my early thoughts in the next post, with the lines that they are currently at.

Wish me luck

And if anyone has any questions, comments, etc, please feel free to post it here. I know this will not be easy, but I think this could be a fun ride. And with only betting $10, there really isn't much risked

[loopydude11]

BOL i hope you get on a roll, it will be interesting to watch! cool idea.

[rsnnh12]

Early looks-

Tennessee +3, vs. Denver (@ TENN)
Pittsburgh +10, vs. Baltimore (@ PIT)
Pittsburgh vs Baltimore, UNDER 44.5
Green Bay -6, vs Detroit (@ Green Bay)
New Orleans -5, vs Carolina (@ NO)
Atlanta +2.5, vs San Fran (@ ATL)
New York Jets +5, vs Buffalo (@ BUF)
Indianapolis +2, vs Jacksonville (@JAX)
Philadelphia +3, vs Washington (@ PHI)
New England +10, vs Miami (@ MIA)
New England vs Miami, OVER 36.5

I am really liking Indy +2, Jets +5, and the over in Pats/Dolphins, but all of these are pretty compelling. Will definitely have to do some thinking on this, as I did not expect this many good options.

Thoughts?

[rsnnh12]

BOL i hope you get on a roll, it will be interesting to watch! cool idea.

Thanks loopy

I figured it was worth a shot, seems like a fun way to play around with a little money, without the stresses that a lot of sports betting entails.



Also, I forgot this in the OP, but these WILL NOT be my only bets for a weekend. These are strictly for this challenge, and I will probably have another play or 2 going each week.

Considering starting one up for college football too.... we'll see

EDIT- screw it, its only $10. Thread for NCAAF started in that subforum

[hitman2010]

I hope you can hang in there until week 8 and it would be fun for week9 and 10 .

[loopydude11]

Yea I agree about the stress haha. I'll check out your NCAAF one too!

I like those plays too, GB -6 and NE + 10 wouldn't be bad substitutions either. just pick the right ones

[jbatcha21]

I like this idea a lot. I may have to try this myself. GL with getting a nice run going

[rsnnh12]

Thanks for the support guys.

If you do join in, or try any teasers, please don't hesitate to post them. I am not anal about it being "my" thread, and want this to be open and active.

I would like to see as many of us win money as possible

Let's get it!

[cant call it]

nice idea man. bravo. best of luck I hope you get a few rolls going, bank son!

[jbatcha21]

Looks like I need to open an account at 5dimes. I just opened one at BetJamaica and the payouts aren't as good for teasers. If I put $10 on the same teaser it would only pay 17.69 the first week and a tie = no action instead of reduced payout. I also don't see anywhere on the site where I can bet ML's. I just looked at the sportbook reviews on SBR and then signed up. I wish I would have looked at 5dimes first, but oh well.

In a 3 teamer this weekend I would probably take
ATL +3
Indy +1
Cleve +13

[rsnnh12]

Thanks cantcallit

Hopefully this is a successful experiment! Should be fun no matter what though



jbatcha- 5Dimes has options for both losing and reducing ties at most of the higher teasers, and options to have wins and reduces at the lower ones. If you want, I could PM you some of their payout scales for different point spreads.

And those picks look pretty good to me. Cleveland looked solid last week

[rsnnh12]

Okay, I have it narrowed down to these choices-

Pittsburgh +10, vs. Baltimore (@ PIT)-- Pretty much everyone expects a tight game here, I like Pitt at home to not lose by more than 10.

Green Bay -6, vs Detroit (@ Green Bay)-- Coming off a rough loss, I see Rodgers lighting up this turnover-prone Lions team. GB's defense is still solid, as long as they keep the penalties to a minimum, and I see a pick-6 this week. Stafford is out this week, and Javid Best and Nate Burleson are banged up. Should be an easy win in Lambeau

New Orleans -5, vs Carolina (@ NO)-- Another strong offensive team coming off of a loss and at home, I can't see this pitiful Panthers team scoring more than 20. If they finally decide to run the ball, they may keep it close early, but the Saints passing attack is just too much for them. And knowing the Panthers, they'll start throwing the ball way too early and Clausen will screw up a lot.

New York Jets +5, vs Buffalo (@ BUF)-- The Jets D is not the Pats D. I could see the Bills maybe pulling out a last second field goal, but it would take a miracle for them to win this by 6 or more. Fitzpatrick looked good last week, but not THAT good.

Indianapolis +2, vs Jacksonville (@JAX)-- Jacksonville usually plays Indy close, but after losing 1 divisional game already, Indy knows just how important this game could be for their playoff chances. They will come out motivated, and as long as all the WRs are healthy, it looks like it should be a 14+ point win.

New England vs Miami, OVER 36.5-- As a Pats fan, it pains me to see the defense get lit up like this. The offense finally has weapons to complement Welker and Moss, with a surprisingly effective running game (Taylor, Green-Ellis, Morris, and the speedy Woodhead) and 2 great young TEs, Brady and the Pats should come close to this spread on their own. I see AT LEAST 21 from the Pats, and Miami should easily be able to score in that range as well.


So, those are my write-ups on the games. Want to get the practice in, for potential big-money weeks coming up.

Liking Green Bay, New York Jets, and the Pats Over the most right now. Also considering taking the home teams here (NO, GB, PIT).

[cant call it]

i like em all, good picks

[cant call it]

i like the gb, jets, saints as 3 team teaser, seems really easy

[rsnnh12]

Same. Those all seem like they are 90+% to happen.

Didn't think I'd have the problem of too many games to choose from


Might try out 2 different 3-teamers, since I have 6 games here.


Green Bay is a definite play. No way are they losing to the Lions at home.

Need 2 more games

[cant call it]

I usually dont like betting against a home dog but carolina sucks balls. I have not seen any D or O on that team.

[rsnnh12]

Agreed. They only have 3 weapons, and they aren't using any of them. They refuse to run the ball to JStew and Deangelo, and their QBs are too shitty to get the ball to Steve Smith.

I see them trying to control the clock early, but Brees should put up some points early, and then the Panthers will start throwing the rest of the game.

[jbatcha21]

I usually dont like betting against a home dog but carolina sucks balls. I have not seen any D or O on that team.

Carolina is not a home dog. The game is in New Orleans

[cant call it]

Carolina is not a home dog. The game is in New Orleans

I stand corrected. I sure did read that wrong. oops lol

[HoofHearted]

Those seem like good teams to bet on. I really do not see you winning week after week for 7 or 8 weeks. But really thought if you are losing only $10 from you wallet it is really not a bad theory. However I do believe when you win their money it is actually yours now since you won.

[slvrnblk]

like the idea of this. going to give this a try this weekend.

liking colts +2.5, nyj +4.5, gb -4.5, oak +13, pit +10, and mia +11.

going to narrow this down tomorrow or friday and put my on here tomorrow.

[tblues2005]

My teaser this will be San Diego Chargers, St Louis Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles this week.

[GunShard]

This would make a good 3 team 10 point teaser for Week 4:

Jets vs Bills UNDER
Ravens vs Steelers UNDER
Patriots vs Dolphins OVER

[Totolover1409]

Get on the G men

[branrave]

Good luck, hope you can make it.

[Jrod124]

Steelers +10/Packers -6/New England +9

Steer clear of Indy and the Jets this week. And i love this idea btw! Good Luck

[Ace_of_Spades]

good luck man.

[unusialsusp5]

a lot of those are extremely high risk unplayable 10 pt. teaser options. subtracting on a point spread is a fatal mistake made by too many. just remember the 11th commandment. doth shall not subtract on a 2 or 3 team teaser. never tease totals. it will backfire. the safest and most reliable play is to tease short priced road team underdogs getting 1.5 pts-6.5 pts only!!! teasing anything else is foolhardy. you are better off playing any other line straight up or parlay as you more than likely won't need the pts. or they won't help. bookies tend to overrate the home teams and short priced road underdogs often are equally as good as the home team but are getting pts. only because they are on road.

[TheCommish]

I hope this works out for you. I've been doing something similar with NCAA and NFL... but combined. I do a 3 team 10-pointer on Saturday NCAA and then roll it into a 3 team 10-pointer on NFL Sunday.

I've been doing it for 2 weeks now and am 4 for 4, but have not been compounding it weekly like you are... allows me to lose and not have to start over, but I like the idea.

[rsnnh12]

Thanks for the comments guys.

To clarify- I know that this is far from guaranteed money, I know there are better bets statistically than a 10 pt teaser, but again, its only $10, and its for fun. If I manage to win, obviously that would be amazing and I would be thrilled. But its really just for the challenge of it, and to see if I can make a lot out of a little. Everyone likes to see the +200 plays, but I want to see firsthand if this can pay off in the end.

TheCommish- I was thinking about trying something similar, but I decided to focus on each one right now. Maybe I'll try it with $5-10 this wknd and see what happens. Congrats on being 4-0 so far! Noticing any patterns/trends so far? Or just going with your gut on what should be the plays? If you want, feel free to post your picks in this thread... could be very helpful.

[rsnnh12]

NFL WEEK 4-

These are my picks for this week:

Green Bay -6 vs Lions, in GB

Pittsburgh +10 vs Ravens, in Pit

Saints -5 vs Panthers, in NO

Risking $10, to win $8.70


I really like the home teams here. Panthers and Lions have looked pretty bad so far, and Green Bay and New Orleans are both coming off of tough losses. They will be out to prove themselves this week. Pittsburgh should be able to put up 14 at least on the Ravens, and although the Ravens might win, it shouldn't be by more than a TD.

Ties reduce, so if that happens and I win the other 2, it drops to (-220).

Hopefully I can get this first win, and roll $18.70 into next weeks games.

BOL guys, feel free to post your picks in here

[cant call it]

do you ever bet on ncaaf ?

[rsnnh12]

Yup. I have a similar thread over there, not very much action so far though haha. I am still looking at what I want to play this wknd, but I am leaning towards Alabama, Iowa, and Stanford. All 3 are getting points.

Do you do NCAA too?

[TheCommish]

TheCommish- I was thinking about trying something similar, but I decided to focus on each one right now. Maybe I'll try it with $5-10 this wknd and see what happens. Congrats on being 4-0 so far! Noticing any patterns/trends so far? Or just going with your gut on what should be the plays? If you want, feel free to post your picks in this thread... could be very helpful.

No specific trends. I look at the matchups I feel strongest to cover the posted spread, and then lump em together and tease em.

I like your picks this week. I'll post mine in here when I've confirmed.

Early Leans (no specific order) - Pitt, Atl, NO, GB, Ind, NYJ, SD

Cheers

[rsnnh12]

Green Bay -5.5 vs Lions, in GB

Pittsburgh +10 vs Ravens, in Pit

Saints -5 vs Panthers, in NO

Risking $10, to win $8.70


Updated lines, just locked them in on 5Dimes