Let's Get Intelligent

[artist]

Fellow Handicappers,

I am writing this thread to form a network of intelligent individuals who want to simplify their work, and increase their earnings. Here is my idea.

Betting on sports can be an elaborate process. This process takes intelligence, energy, and countless hours to determine which bet is right.

I propose a network of 32 people, with one person covering "his team". For example: I have followed the 49ers since I was 10, and know the team inside and out. I knew that they would lose to the Chiefs, and even stated in a previous post that Arrowhead stadium would overwhelm Alex Smith. I also know from experience that they have historically played very poorly at the Chiefs home-turf, which is why I chose the Chiefs again to win, and win handily at home. With one person being assigned to "his team" individuals can converse with each other throughout the week to determine which has the better chance and picks will be emailed to the network, after a trial run or two of course.

What I do not want is unrealistic people that believe "his team" will win the Superbowl every year. This can be a drawback, because it creates a bias. Nevertheless, this process could work. Reply to this post if interested. I have the 49ers covered. We still have 31 positions available.

This is a good idea! But if you really and I mean really want a good winning percentage and have the brain to do so haha try to be in football outsider!!! That's if you wanna get intelligent it's alot of hard work but you will make $$$$ GL

And if you don't understand them then it's not for you

[MovingUnits513]

This is a good idea! But if you really and I mean really want a good winning percentage and have the brain to do so haha try to be in football outsider!!! That's if you wanna get intelligent it's alot of hard work but you will make $$$$ GL

And if you don't understand them then it's not for you

Yeah thats the truth, but I have a hunch most people aren't willing to put in the effort and time for that lol

[VegasPlayer]

Been following the Cards since they moved to 'zona. Fade them every week til the owner dies. Then fade his kid. You'll make money.

[slacker00]

I'm in Packers country and I'm 2-1 ATS with them so far this year, but I tend to do pretty well year in and year out with them.

This week they're laying 14 1/2 with the Lions coming to town. I hate analyzing these kinds of spreads because it's more about strange trends about backdoor covers and whatnot. Last week I took the Lions in Minny and they should've been able to backdoor cover, but just couldn't do it. So I'm gunshy this week. Realistically, this will be a no-play for me. But if you put a gun to my head, I'll take those points again because 14 1/2 is such a buttload of points and these kitties are pesky and won't quit until the clock is all zeros.

[Lockitup1x]

Interesting idea.

I suggest:
Weigh all "insider" support of his team covering as less valuable
Weigh all "insider" support of opposition covering as more valuable

Somewhat obvious, but worth mentioning.

[l7ustin]

you guys are going to be 0-1; the falcons have a terrible secondary. alex smith will not struggle in this game. expect a big performance from him more like he did against the saints. this is a MUST win game for SF. atl on the other hand just won a HUGE game. they will come out flat. last year sf covered 2/3 on the 2nd game of their back2back road games. this line looks fishy as hell, it should have been 9 or 10, you guys are right. but it wasnt. vegas is begging people to pound the falcons. also like you said the falcons hammered sf last year. thats a little extra motivation for the niners to use this week. its a terrible spot for atlanta. dont lose your first bet guys. sf cannot start 0-4 they will play out of their minds this week. they might still lose but it will be a close game and 7 is more than enough

home favorites coming off of road wins of 1-3 points are 21-48 against the spread since 2000.

please dont be like all the square bettors that will get buried going all in on the falcons. if a line looks suspicious stay the **** away from it, or fade the public.

[alex81]

There it is. Oh wow, -6 1/2 at Pinnacle!!! Unbelievable!!! This will jump!!! I wish I had an account there.

Be careful... Not saying that your Niners will actually cover but they replaced their OC so this may actually spark the offense.

[VegasPlayer]

49ers have lost 3 must win games in a row.

[vyomguy]

Once you think sports betting requires intelligence it is time to check into a GA program. Anyone in their local areas favors their home teams in most case scenarios. Turnovers decide most point spread covers and not any type of trend and or theories. No one has a fukkin clue who will cover the Pitt/Ravens game.

Shut the fuk up already...you have no clue.

[Firefox14]

you guys are going to be 0-1; the falcons have a terrible secondary. alex smith will not struggle in this game. expect a big performance from him more like he did against the saints. this is a MUST win game for SF. atl on the other hand just won a HUGE game. they will come out flat. last year sf covered 2/3 on the 2nd game of their back2back road games. this line looks fishy as hell, it should have been 9 or 10, you guys are right. but it wasnt. vegas is begging people to pound the falcons. also like you said the falcons hammered sf last year. thats a little extra motivation for the niners to use this week. its a terrible spot for atlanta. dont lose your first bet guys. sf cannot start 0-4 they will play out of their minds this week. they might still lose but it will be a close game and 7 is more than enough

home favorites coming off of road wins of 1-3 points are 21-48 against the spread since 2000.

please dont be like all the square bettors that will get buried going all in on the falcons. if a line looks suspicious stay the **** away from it, or fade the public.

l7ustin- I have to thank you for that statistic! As a beginning bettor, I am extremely curious as to where you get that sort of information. Statfox maybe? Anyway, I understand what you are saying, but as an insider covering my team, I firmly disagree. This example is proving my point exactly. I'm moving soley against stats here. I've seen every play for the 49ers this year, and what the stats won't tell you is the look of their demeanor when playing games, or their ability to consistently not finish the big games, their body language when Smith throws another 2 yd dish-pass to the flat without ever taking a shot downfield, the interviews that reveal the childlike and immature nature of Mike Singletary, the lack of intelligence in keeping 1st string in a game against the Chiefs down 31-3 with one minute left in the ball game thus risking injury to the top tier of players when they should just ship out and call it a day; the lack of intelligence in giving the Saints time left to win with a field goal on the last possession. This is my point...What do the sports cappers do? They set lines based on statistics. These guys aren't taking into account anything seen outside of a piece of paper.

Your argument to fade the public is the same that was mentioned last week when players said picking the Chiefs at home wasn't the play, because the cappers want you to think that they're historically good at home, and so you should counteract that and play the favorite. It's just too much second guessing for me. But I do appreciate the comments, and would love to know where you gather such awesome stats. I often wonder where someone can even keep track of such statistic. I've made my play, and feel very confident in Falcons at -7. Could I lose? Sure! But one thing I will never second guess is my first-hand observation of what I see on the playing field, and not on a piece of paper.

[Firefox14]

been following the cards since they moved to 'zona. Fade them every week til the owner dies. Then fade his kid. You'll make money.

lmao

[Hollin]

Gonna have to agree with Firefox14 on this one. I consider myself a 49ers insider as well. There are just too many reasons why the 49ers will fail in ATL. Everything from the new OC, their record on the road, b2b road games across multiple time zones, Singletary getting out-coached every game, a loud dome similar to SEA, the drubbing they took last year, allowing both Charles and Thomas to get tons of rushing yardage, it goes on and on . . .

Niners lose this one easy 31-13, or something like that.

[Firefox14]

Thus far, I have the following network of individuals assigned to "their team".

Irish Lumberjack: Buffalo Bills
Stealinhome: Atlanta Falcons
Firefox14/Hollin: San Francisco 49ers
linewiz/SpreadSniper: Baltimore Ravens
MovingUnits513: Cincinatti Bengals

Thus far, myself and Hollin, representing the 49ers, have conversed with stealinhome, representing the Atlanta Falcons, to bet the Falcons at -7, along with avoiding the over/under due to unpredictability.

Remember: We are looking for members that have covered "their team" for years, and have a good feel for certain patterns that the team carries forth.

Duties: Establish a simple record JUST for your team covered in order to get an assessment of how biases affect judgment. Remember, first for fun, and if it transitions into success, we may have a winning system. If you don't like a bet, DON'T BET IT. We want probabilities, not high-risk, "I've got a feeling" type plays. Let's face it, nobody ever gets to the top without having a little help along the way.

[TPowell]

Atlanta wins but doesnt cover IMO, Atlanta is a huge sleeper. Love my +800 to win the NFC outright with these guys

[Firefox14]

We'll see

[linewiz]

Firefox...here is my input on Ravens this week. I actually started another thread with this, but as long as you keep this thread going, I will pitch in my thoughts on Ravens each week.......


Been on this site alot lately, and enjoying the expertise and picks of alot of knowledgeable people. Though I am sure there will be alot of conversation regarding this game on here, I feel strongly enough to contribute my two cents. I expected this to open at Pitt -3.5, possibly as low as Pitt -3...to my surprise I got it at -1.5 . Ravens are getting too much respect here, in my opinion. Offensively challenged Ravens are going up against red-hot Steeler D, which might be the best in football. While Ravens have formidable D also, circumstances do not favor them. Ray Rice, huge key to Ravens O has severe knee contusion, and questionable for game. Even if he goes, Ravens running game has been mediocre this year, and Steelers have been stuffing the run. Ravens will have to go to air to be successful. Steelers are among sack leaders through three games. If they get pressure on Flacco, I expect him to revert to what we saw two weeks ago in Cincy....rushed throws, bad mechanics, lack of composure. Baltimore will struggle, I believe, to get in end zone. It will not take many points to beat them.

Additionally, Pitt has SU record of 19-5 last three regular seasons at Heinz Field. They have beaten Ravens in Pitt last four, and nine of last ten. And with line at 1 to 1.5, you are essentially picking them to win. While I do not discount Ravens defensive prowess, or number of weapons they have on offense this year (if Flacco can find them), hard to envision a scenario where the Steelers do not win this. Strong on Pitt -1.5, but welcome other views on either side.

[DirtyCurtDCN8]

right now it doesnt matter who Pitt has at QB... Their defense looks better than it did a few years ago when they won the Superbowl. With Aaron Smith and Troy healthy, teams just cant do anything. Especially at Heinz field. Really tough to bet against the Steelers at home.

[Flying Dutchman]

I'm 2-1 with the Chargers: they are off to their normal slow start of a season this year.

I would suggest you keep records on each team "manager" record ATS to see if they have the rose colored glasses or not.

JJ: you need to stick to whacking off with the boyz in your basement. Negativity doesn't become you.

[GunShard]

I live in Colorado and watch many of the Broncos games since the John Elway days.

What I know about the Broncos is that they are awful when they travel to east coast teams.

@Baltimore, @Philadelphia and @Washington, they lost to those teams last season.

The Titans should cover the spread, not only because of this theory. But the Broncos have an injury to their main Runningback Moreno, they will have former Patriots Runningback Maroney playing instead, who played well at the 2008 Super Bowl as a Patriot against the Giants.

The Titans have Runningback Chris Johnson, who will obviously out perform Broncos Maroney.

The Broncos are good on defense, but I am not sure if they can stop Chris Johnson.

Both teams are even on their Quarterbacks, but the home advantage goes to the Titans.

For Week 4: @Tennessee -6.5

What you should know about the Broncos is that they perform well early in the regular season but start to crash and burn towards the late in the regular season. Not exactly sure why.

[hitman2010]

Best bet of week 4th: Baltimore RaVeNs.

[l7ustin]

Intersting thread, and yes I use Statfox. and btw everyone bet on the 49ers last week. Vegas made a ton on the Chiefs winning, but everyone is betting on Atl this week and the line is dropping towards SF, Reverse line movement....

Good luck guys and thanks for the Broncos info I really like Tenn to cover this week

[SpreadSniper]

Unfortunately I have to agree with the others assessment of the game this Sunday.... I do think it will be a very close game, but in the end you have to give the edge to the home team. PIT ability to get to Flacco will be the Ravens undoing in this one me thinks. Gaither still not playing, cousins is unreliable at best and Oher isn't filling in as well as I thought at LT. Flacco hasn't progressed much from last year imho. I almost wish they threw Bulger in for this one - he's got that crazy fast release.

BAL does have a chance to win, but an outside one imho.

In the end I wouldn't play this game anyway - there are much better options for the week....

BOL

[Firefox14]

Thanks everyone for the input. Let's keep it coming. I would have to agree to probably stay away from Pitt/Bal, but let's see if linewiz's prediction comes to fruition. BOL...

[GunShard]

My Broncos game prediction was off. I was fading the ATS trend.

[big0mar]

I seriously doubt you can find 32 people good enough to make this successful. Living in a certain area and being bombarded with info doesn't make you sharp in the NFL.

[Limey]

Personally, I think the "team insiders" thing might be less useful than simply pooling ideas/approaches/reseach and analysis. And i'm not just saying that because both picks so far (ATL and PIT) have been losers!

I do a TON of analysis every week, focussing on certain factors. There are more things I'd like to cover, but there just isn't enough time. It'd be neat to have folks exchanging their handicapping analysis of each game, so you might be alerted to a factor you've completely ignored. I'm sure there are lots of very different approaches that we take, between us.

[GunShard]

Denver @ Baltimore, Ravens have home advantage. Broncos were dominated by the Ravens last season, they lost WR Brandon Marshall and OLB Elvis Dumervil, which makes the Broncos in a worst condition than last season. Ravens have improved with addition of WR Antwan Boldwin.

Week 5: Baltimore -7

If I get this wrong again, then I should be following the plays of others, not giving out plays.

[tkim8404]

This actually might be a good idea. I follow St. John's Basketball to a T so let me know if I can help when college ball starts.

[Glitch]

Be careful... Not saying that your Niners will actually cover but they replaced their OC so this may actually spark the offense.

Interesting- i noticed they've started throwin it to crabtree. I thought the OC just got a kick in the ass but i guess they brought in a new guy.

and as far as this thread is concerned: these insiders should only give up the intell as to when they think their teams gonna lose. If youre seeing through those previously referred-to rose colored glasses about your team- then predicting a loss would be your knowledge shining through despite your faith and fanhood.

[mcbogo]

STEELERS. i know alot about them. i'm 3-1 this year ATS(lost the ravens game) happy 2 talk with u guys. WEEK 5 it's a bye week for us. see ya in week 6.

[GunShard]

Denver @ Baltimore, Ravens have home advantage. Broncos were dominated by the Ravens last season, they lost WR Brandon Marshall and OLB Elvis Dumervil, which makes the Broncos in a worst condition than last season. Ravens have improved with addition of WR Antwan Boldwin.

Week 5: Baltimore -7

If I get this wrong again, then I should be following the plays of others, not giving out plays.

That game was a lock, predicted it correctly.

[Quake]

Great idea... I'm in. Colts fan here but I know I'd be better off doing another team. I'd be interested in Bears, Browns, Vikings, or Houston the most but I'll do any. How bout you pick one that needs done and I'll give it a try with them starting this week.

[KennyM10]

Doubt this will work but good luck, maybe just post when it is a bet against your favorite or home team.

[JosephPavs]

Not sure what all you have but I follow the AFC South Close and the Texans Closer

[pokerwhiz90]

i'm the man for da bears... nfc north i have much of it down, but anything that JDickerson knows about the bears, I'm the next guy to know about injuries, etc, i could even go as far as saying i commit about 2 hours a day listening and following everything about the Chicago Bears!

So far im 4-1 with the bears, 3 ML victories, and 1 ATS (against cowboys)