These are my plays for week 2 based on the analysis of Walters from walterfootball.com . Tell me what you guys think...
New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (0-1) - Pick -> Pats -2 <<< 5 Units >>>
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Remember back in January, when Mark Sanchez looked like he was taking the next step, and Shonn Greene was running all over everyone? The future was really bright for the Jets. Well, it's amazing how much can change in the span of nine months.
First with Sanchez, his inability to read defenses is alarming, and he just seems way too scared to take a shot downfield. Bill Belichick's palms have to be sweating in anticipation of being able to confuse QB Nacho again; the last time Sanchez battled the Patriots, he was just 8-of-21 for 136 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Based on how dominant New England's defense was in the first half of its opener against Carson Palmer, Sanchez could be in for another very long day.
As for Greene, he fumbled his way off the field Monday night. After his second fumble, he barely saw any playing time. When he did get another chance, he dropped an easy pass. The good news for the Jets is that LaDainian Tomlinson has somehow regained his burst and quickness. However, the Patriots shut down Cincinnati's rushing attack last week, limiting the Bengals to 3.7 yards per carry. They should be able to contain Tomlinson as well.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady struggled against Rex Ryan's defense the first time he saw it last year, but figured it out the second occasion, going 28-of-41 for 310 yards and a touchdown. Brady wasn't even completely healthy in that contest coming off a nasty ACL tear, so he should have another big game.
The same can't be said for Randy Moss. Darrelle Revis will shut him down, so look for Brady to utilize his other talented weapons more often.
RECAP: All offseason, Brady and Belichick have been hearing about how awesome the Jets are. They listened to NFL analysts pick the Jets to win the AFC East and advance to the Super Bowl. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for New England.
And think about the spread this way: All Brady has to do is win. The line is -2, so you basically have to choose a straight-up wager between Brady and Sanchez. That really is a no-brainer.
Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1) - Pick -> Dolphins +6 <<<8 Units (his POM)>>>
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Not much of an offense. Brett Favre was just 15-of-27 for 171 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The interior of his offensive line struggled to protect him, while he and his receivers were completely out of sync. Percy Harvin repeatedly ran wrong routes (or Favre incorrectly thought he was going to do something else), while Bernard Berrian seemed to screw up at least once on every drive.
The Vikings did not run enough with Adrian Peterson. Peterson totaled 87 yards on 19 carries, but figures to face a much stiffer challenge against Miami's defense. The Dolphins limited C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to 38 yards on 14 carries in their preseason opener. Granted, the Bills have a pathetic offensive line, but Minnesota's isn't playing very well either.
If Peterson struggles to move the chains, the Vikings won't be able to put together consistent drives - unless Favre, Harvin and Berrian suddenly start clicking. I just don't see that happening after only one week.
MIAMI OFFENSE: You'd think that the Williams Wall, Jared Allen and Ray Edwards would be able to stop the Saints from running out the clock, but that was not the case last week. Pierre Thomas picked up chunks of yards at will, and New Orleans didn't let Minnesota have the ball again.
The Dolphins have a stout running game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Unlike the Saints game, however, Minnesota's front won't have to worry about a quarterback the caliber of Drew Brees. Chad Henne struggled in the opener, going 21-of-34 for 182 yards. The Vikings will focus on stopping Brown and Williams, forcing Henne to beat them.
I do expect Henne to rebound a bit. He wasn't very good last week, but Buffalo has a very strong secondary. The Vikings' defensive backfield, on the other hand, isn't very healthy. They played well against the Saints, but I'd like to see them repeat that before I place a lot of faith in them.
RECAP: I don't like the Dolphins to cover the 6-point spread. I love the Dolphins to do so. In fact, Miami is my September NFL Pick of the Month.
I've actually been looking at this contest for a long time. My plan was that if Minnesota lost a tough game to the Saints, and the Dolphins either lost or were unimpressive at Buffalo, I'd use Miami as a big play. Here's my reasoning:
1. The Vikings circled the Saints opener when the schedule was released. All of the work they put into preparing for this season was focused on avenging their NFC Championship loss.
The effort certainly was there - I've never seen Adrian Peterson run so hard - but Minnesota fell short. Now, this completely deflated Vikings team has to go home and battle some unknown AFC foe that didn't look too sharp in its opener. I think this is Minnesota's mentality right now: "Can't believe we lost to the Saints. Damn refs screwed us over again. Meh, at least we'll beat this Dolphins team this week. They almost lost to Buffalo."
This situation is very similar to what the Titans endured last year. They brought 110 percent to their opener against the Steelers. They fell short by the score of 13-10. Ten days later, they battled a "lesser" Texans team as big favorites. Houston prevailed by a field goal.
I cannot see the Vikings getting up for the Dolphins. They exerted all of their energy in the Saints game. I just don't know how much they have left in the tank.
2. As for the Dolphins, there's no reason not to expect them to play hard. They won at Buffalo - something they haven't done since 2004, by the way - but the 15-10 score has everyone doubting them. This is more of a statement game for Miami. This is their chance to show the NFL that they are for real.
3. Tony Sparano is 5-1 against the spread in his second consecutive road game, so there should be no concern that Miami will struggle because it's playing back-to-back road tilts.
4. As of this writing, 80 percent of the public is on the Vikings. Despite this, the line hasn't moved much. Bodog lists the spread as -6, but Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, has Minnesota at -5.5 -102, which is practically begging bettors to take the host.
5. Are the Vikings better than the Dolphins, let alone three points superior? I don't think so. Favre and his receivers aren't clicking, the offensive line isn't blocking, and the secondary isn't healthy. Miami just appears to be the stronger team right now.
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) - Pick -> Ravens -1.5 <<<4 Units>>>
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco didn't have a great statistical game against the Jets - he was 20-of-38 for 248 yards and an interception - but he converted multiple third-and-long situations against the best pass defense in the NFL. With his toughest defensive foe out of the way, Flacco should have a big year.
The Bengals have two shutdown corners, but they couldn't keep Tom Brady from lighting up the scoreboard. Like Brady, Flacco has a plethora of weapons that Cincinnati's defense just won't be able to cover.
Perhaps the most disappointing aspect about Cincinnati's defense in the opener was its inability to stop the run. The Patriots, who have no ground attack whatsoever, were able to gash the Bengals for 5.3 yards per carry with Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should both have huge games, which will give Flacco more time than he'll need against a defense that currently has zero sacks on the year.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It's a joke that Carson Palmer is ranked second in the league in passing yards. As noted on my Week 1 Game Recaps page, Palmer played dreadfully in the opener, showing absolutely no arm strength that he once possessed. He finished 34-of-50 for 345 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, but most of that came when the Patriots began playing a vanilla prevent defense. One play prior to halftime, Palmer was 9-of-16 for 56 yards and a pick-six.
The Ravens have an even tougher defense than the Patriots, so I can't see Palmer playing any better this week. Palmer will have no running game because Baltimore's stout front seven will put the clamps on Cedric Benson, so like Mark Sanchez last week, he'll be forced to convert third-and-long situations against Ray Lewis and company. Good luck, Carson.
RECAP: I really love the Ravens in this spot. Not only are they the better team; they also have the motivational factor in that the Bengals swept them last year. Like the Patriots last week, Baltimore should beat Cincinnati rather easily
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-0) - Pick Titans -5 <<<3 Units>>>
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Pittsburgh's defense is healthy again. They did a terrific job forcing Matt Ryan into numerous poor throws, including what should have been a game-clinching interception at the end of regulation. Ryan really struggled because Michael Turner was bottled up.
It's impossible to contain Chris Johnson. The Raiders, who have a pretty good run defense, did their best until Johnson broke free for a 76-yard score in the second half. Dating back to last year, Johnson now has 12 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. I expect that streak to extend to 13; with Vince Young as a running option, Pittsburgh, like every other defense the Titans have faced, won't be able to focus primarily on Johnson.
I also think that Pittsburgh will have problems matching the intensity it played with last week. I'll get to that later, but if I'm right about this, stopping Johnson would be even more difficult.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Dennis Dixon had some ugly misfires and an inexcusable interception against the Falcons, but he did a great job considering how poorly his offensive line played. The mobile Dixon was sacked three times, including once when Atlanta sent a three-man rush.
This figures to be a much more pressing problem at Tennessee because left tackle Max Starks is out, meaning the inept Jonathan Scott will be starting across the pedestrian Flozell Adams.
To win this game, the Steelers will have to run the ball effectively. There's some hope here, as the Raiders mustered 5.3 yards per carry last week. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, left end William Hayes (Tennessee's best run defender) should be back in the lineup, and the Titans defense as a whole will be more focused for this matchup than they were against the lowly Raiders.
RECAP: I really like the Titans to cover the spread here for two reasons. First, this is a big revenge game for them. A loss to Pittsburgh on opening night last year sent them reeling into an 0-6 start.
Second, and more prominently, I can't imagine Pittsburgh coming close to matching the same intensity it had against the Falcons. I loved the Steelers to cover the spread in that game because I knew they'd play at 110 percent with Ben Roethlisberger out. Really good teams simply step up in the first game without their best player. This does not, however, apply to the second game.
In nearly every instance I've tracked over the years, a team missing its star quarterback for a second contest really struggled after winning that first game. This is only natural; in such a physical sport, it's nearly impossible to bring 110 percent to the table two weeks in a row.
These are the plays I'm considering for this week, but I also like the Texans -3 and Saints - 5.5 and will decide later if I make a play on them also.
New England Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (0-1) - Pick -> Pats -2 <<< 5 Units >>>
NEW YORK OFFENSE: Remember back in January, when Mark Sanchez looked like he was taking the next step, and Shonn Greene was running all over everyone? The future was really bright for the Jets. Well, it's amazing how much can change in the span of nine months.
First with Sanchez, his inability to read defenses is alarming, and he just seems way too scared to take a shot downfield. Bill Belichick's palms have to be sweating in anticipation of being able to confuse QB Nacho again; the last time Sanchez battled the Patriots, he was just 8-of-21 for 136 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Based on how dominant New England's defense was in the first half of its opener against Carson Palmer, Sanchez could be in for another very long day.
As for Greene, he fumbled his way off the field Monday night. After his second fumble, he barely saw any playing time. When he did get another chance, he dropped an easy pass. The good news for the Jets is that LaDainian Tomlinson has somehow regained his burst and quickness. However, the Patriots shut down Cincinnati's rushing attack last week, limiting the Bengals to 3.7 yards per carry. They should be able to contain Tomlinson as well.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady struggled against Rex Ryan's defense the first time he saw it last year, but figured it out the second occasion, going 28-of-41 for 310 yards and a touchdown. Brady wasn't even completely healthy in that contest coming off a nasty ACL tear, so he should have another big game.
The same can't be said for Randy Moss. Darrelle Revis will shut him down, so look for Brady to utilize his other talented weapons more often.
RECAP: All offseason, Brady and Belichick have been hearing about how awesome the Jets are. They listened to NFL analysts pick the Jets to win the AFC East and advance to the Super Bowl. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for New England.
And think about the spread this way: All Brady has to do is win. The line is -2, so you basically have to choose a straight-up wager between Brady and Sanchez. That really is a no-brainer.
Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-1) - Pick -> Dolphins +6 <<<8 Units (his POM)>>>
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Not much of an offense. Brett Favre was just 15-of-27 for 171 yards, one touchdown and an interception. The interior of his offensive line struggled to protect him, while he and his receivers were completely out of sync. Percy Harvin repeatedly ran wrong routes (or Favre incorrectly thought he was going to do something else), while Bernard Berrian seemed to screw up at least once on every drive.
The Vikings did not run enough with Adrian Peterson. Peterson totaled 87 yards on 19 carries, but figures to face a much stiffer challenge against Miami's defense. The Dolphins limited C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to 38 yards on 14 carries in their preseason opener. Granted, the Bills have a pathetic offensive line, but Minnesota's isn't playing very well either.
If Peterson struggles to move the chains, the Vikings won't be able to put together consistent drives - unless Favre, Harvin and Berrian suddenly start clicking. I just don't see that happening after only one week.
MIAMI OFFENSE: You'd think that the Williams Wall, Jared Allen and Ray Edwards would be able to stop the Saints from running out the clock, but that was not the case last week. Pierre Thomas picked up chunks of yards at will, and New Orleans didn't let Minnesota have the ball again.
The Dolphins have a stout running game with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Unlike the Saints game, however, Minnesota's front won't have to worry about a quarterback the caliber of Drew Brees. Chad Henne struggled in the opener, going 21-of-34 for 182 yards. The Vikings will focus on stopping Brown and Williams, forcing Henne to beat them.
I do expect Henne to rebound a bit. He wasn't very good last week, but Buffalo has a very strong secondary. The Vikings' defensive backfield, on the other hand, isn't very healthy. They played well against the Saints, but I'd like to see them repeat that before I place a lot of faith in them.
RECAP: I don't like the Dolphins to cover the 6-point spread. I love the Dolphins to do so. In fact, Miami is my September NFL Pick of the Month.
I've actually been looking at this contest for a long time. My plan was that if Minnesota lost a tough game to the Saints, and the Dolphins either lost or were unimpressive at Buffalo, I'd use Miami as a big play. Here's my reasoning:
1. The Vikings circled the Saints opener when the schedule was released. All of the work they put into preparing for this season was focused on avenging their NFC Championship loss.
The effort certainly was there - I've never seen Adrian Peterson run so hard - but Minnesota fell short. Now, this completely deflated Vikings team has to go home and battle some unknown AFC foe that didn't look too sharp in its opener. I think this is Minnesota's mentality right now: "Can't believe we lost to the Saints. Damn refs screwed us over again. Meh, at least we'll beat this Dolphins team this week. They almost lost to Buffalo."
This situation is very similar to what the Titans endured last year. They brought 110 percent to their opener against the Steelers. They fell short by the score of 13-10. Ten days later, they battled a "lesser" Texans team as big favorites. Houston prevailed by a field goal.
I cannot see the Vikings getting up for the Dolphins. They exerted all of their energy in the Saints game. I just don't know how much they have left in the tank.
2. As for the Dolphins, there's no reason not to expect them to play hard. They won at Buffalo - something they haven't done since 2004, by the way - but the 15-10 score has everyone doubting them. This is more of a statement game for Miami. This is their chance to show the NFL that they are for real.
3. Tony Sparano is 5-1 against the spread in his second consecutive road game, so there should be no concern that Miami will struggle because it's playing back-to-back road tilts.
4. As of this writing, 80 percent of the public is on the Vikings. Despite this, the line hasn't moved much. Bodog lists the spread as -6, but Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, has Minnesota at -5.5 -102, which is practically begging bettors to take the host.
5. Are the Vikings better than the Dolphins, let alone three points superior? I don't think so. Favre and his receivers aren't clicking, the offensive line isn't blocking, and the secondary isn't healthy. Miami just appears to be the stronger team right now.
Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) - Pick -> Ravens -1.5 <<<4 Units>>>
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco didn't have a great statistical game against the Jets - he was 20-of-38 for 248 yards and an interception - but he converted multiple third-and-long situations against the best pass defense in the NFL. With his toughest defensive foe out of the way, Flacco should have a big year.
The Bengals have two shutdown corners, but they couldn't keep Tom Brady from lighting up the scoreboard. Like Brady, Flacco has a plethora of weapons that Cincinnati's defense just won't be able to cover.
Perhaps the most disappointing aspect about Cincinnati's defense in the opener was its inability to stop the run. The Patriots, who have no ground attack whatsoever, were able to gash the Bengals for 5.3 yards per carry with Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee should both have huge games, which will give Flacco more time than he'll need against a defense that currently has zero sacks on the year.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It's a joke that Carson Palmer is ranked second in the league in passing yards. As noted on my Week 1 Game Recaps page, Palmer played dreadfully in the opener, showing absolutely no arm strength that he once possessed. He finished 34-of-50 for 345 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, but most of that came when the Patriots began playing a vanilla prevent defense. One play prior to halftime, Palmer was 9-of-16 for 56 yards and a pick-six.
The Ravens have an even tougher defense than the Patriots, so I can't see Palmer playing any better this week. Palmer will have no running game because Baltimore's stout front seven will put the clamps on Cedric Benson, so like Mark Sanchez last week, he'll be forced to convert third-and-long situations against Ray Lewis and company. Good luck, Carson.
RECAP: I really love the Ravens in this spot. Not only are they the better team; they also have the motivational factor in that the Bengals swept them last year. Like the Patriots last week, Baltimore should beat Cincinnati rather easily
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-0) - Pick Titans -5 <<<3 Units>>>
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Pittsburgh's defense is healthy again. They did a terrific job forcing Matt Ryan into numerous poor throws, including what should have been a game-clinching interception at the end of regulation. Ryan really struggled because Michael Turner was bottled up.
It's impossible to contain Chris Johnson. The Raiders, who have a pretty good run defense, did their best until Johnson broke free for a 76-yard score in the second half. Dating back to last year, Johnson now has 12 consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. I expect that streak to extend to 13; with Vince Young as a running option, Pittsburgh, like every other defense the Titans have faced, won't be able to focus primarily on Johnson.
I also think that Pittsburgh will have problems matching the intensity it played with last week. I'll get to that later, but if I'm right about this, stopping Johnson would be even more difficult.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Dennis Dixon had some ugly misfires and an inexcusable interception against the Falcons, but he did a great job considering how poorly his offensive line played. The mobile Dixon was sacked three times, including once when Atlanta sent a three-man rush.
This figures to be a much more pressing problem at Tennessee because left tackle Max Starks is out, meaning the inept Jonathan Scott will be starting across the pedestrian Flozell Adams.
To win this game, the Steelers will have to run the ball effectively. There's some hope here, as the Raiders mustered 5.3 yards per carry last week. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, left end William Hayes (Tennessee's best run defender) should be back in the lineup, and the Titans defense as a whole will be more focused for this matchup than they were against the lowly Raiders.
RECAP: I really like the Titans to cover the spread here for two reasons. First, this is a big revenge game for them. A loss to Pittsburgh on opening night last year sent them reeling into an 0-6 start.
Second, and more prominently, I can't imagine Pittsburgh coming close to matching the same intensity it had against the Falcons. I loved the Steelers to cover the spread in that game because I knew they'd play at 110 percent with Ben Roethlisberger out. Really good teams simply step up in the first game without their best player. This does not, however, apply to the second game.
In nearly every instance I've tracked over the years, a team missing its star quarterback for a second contest really struggled after winning that first game. This is only natural; in such a physical sport, it's nearly impossible to bring 110 percent to the table two weeks in a row.
These are the plays I'm considering for this week, but I also like the Texans -3 and Saints - 5.5 and will decide later if I make a play on them also.