LB thread for NFL plays 2010-2011

[mlb]

Think this is a lot like the Philly niners game perceptio wise ... At first glance niners and vikes look good but the more you look at them you are swayed the other way

[JR007]

LB , though the Cowboys lost respect you "thinking out of the box"

[dodgerblue]

Thanks for the insight bro, I was leaning Vikings earlier this week too but Im liking Jets as well now.

Be careful man. Tough to bet against Favre and Moss on Monday night. Too many intangibles going on this one. I think play is a teased Minn or nothing.

[vchan_2005]

i like 6pts tease and over for tonight's game..

[NYSportsGuy210]

hows NY sports "tool" doing today ????

In NFL...I actually went 4-1. Thanks for asking NOOB....

Since I posted my predictions and I added some more bets...only a paltry 7-8 overall. Not a problem only down a total of -$75 total at this point in time, not bad considering most people on here seem to be struggling...especially in NFL as I called.

[superjeff24]

In NFL...I actually went 4-1. Thanks for asking NOOB....

Since I posted my predictions and I added some more bets...only a paltry 7-8 overall. Not a problem only down a total of -$75 total at this point in time, not bad considering most people on here seem to be struggling...especially in NFL as I called.

NySquareGuy I hear all we gotta do to make money sportsbetting is to fade yo azz

[I am Happy]

Gotta get me some Vikes tonight. <<Insert chip on shoulder to the old man>>

I'll take the points for a few units. Going to be intriguing...

[lakerboy]

Jets -4.5 -106 (1x)

[DJStroke]

got it at -5.5 earlier...hopefully they win by a TD

[Tommy_de1st]

Jets -4.5 -106 (1x)

Gl LB, got them earlier -3.5 (-110)

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Jets -4.5 -106 (1x)

Good luck LB. I'm on the other side.

[kmarinouofm]

Gl LB, got them earlier -3.5 (-110)

good job.. -3.5 looking good here.. jets roll

public thinks moss will be a huge difference maker right away ? really?

Even so.. jets d can hold him..

fade randy here boys.. his coming will be more a negative then a positive .. at least for this game..

[AmpleGamble]

Hate to see this as a Vikings fan. Gonna stay away from the game myself, don't wanna bet with my heart.

[I am Happy]

good job.. -3.5 looking good here.. jets roll

public thinks moss will be a huge difference maker right away ? really?

Even so.. jets d can hold him..

fade randy here boys.. his coming will be more a negative then a positive .. at least for this game..

It's not what Randy does on the stat sheet that demonstrates his difference maker status. He will be a difference maker just by being on the field tonight. He is a variable that needs accounted for with every defensive set. That said, I don't believe he'll be a major player towards the outcome this evening. The parody is there. I'll be on the Vikes ML.

GL LB & everyone

[landers781]

Hey LB,

Need some of your insight here. I am looking at the Pinny TT and jets are at 23 with under juiced at -118

My local has the jets tt at 21.5 over juiced -120. in terms of beating pinny here, i should pound the over 21.5? Or should just leave it considering the under is juiced at pinny

[Pin Fish]

maybe they are looking for the under money................

[JR007]

"MOSS TRADE RAISES AGE OLD QUESTION...
AND PREPARE NOW FOR HEAT INJURIES!
How many points is Randy Moss worth?
The line in Monday Night's Minnesota/NY Jets game made a significant move when it was announced that Moss was heading to the Vikings from the New England Patriots in a rare midseason trade of a big name player. Sharps (professional wagerers) acted quickly to take positions on assumptions that:
*Moss was worth SOMETHING for the Vikings, and that 'something' hadn't been factored into the prior line.
*Other sharps would also think he was worth 'something,' and had to be beaten to the punch.
*Squares (the general public) were likely to react as well, potentially driving the line high enough for middle and buy back opportunities. Even if you think Moss is worth only half a point, it pays to get in early because of profit potential that might be created down the road.
The market will settle on a price before kickoff, which will reflect a composite view of Moss's value. Is that the best way to determine his value? Or, is it just averaging together guesses of people who don't really know? Averaging the unknowable doesn't make it knowable.
I was thinking about discussing this issue with you again even before the Moss trade. You'll recall that within minutes of the 'big three' for Miami Heat taking the court in an exhibition game...Dwyane Wade had to leave with an injury. Have you prepared for THAT yet...the VERY likely occurrence of either Wade, Lebron James, or Chris Bosh having to miss time during the soon-to-start NBA regular season because of a bum ankle or sprained wrist?
How much is Lebron James worth in the Nevada line? Does that number change depending on the team he plays for? Was he worth 3-4 points in the line for Cleveland because they lacked depth...but just 1-2 points for Miami because Wade and Bosh will easily make up for LeBron's absence? Is it more in both cases?
Let me guess. You hadn't thought about it much. And, you'd rather just wait until an injury (or another big NFL trade) happens before you analyze the situation.
Folks, sharps are going to beat you to the punch. WHATEVER you decide, the value is likely to be gone. If you 'correctly' ascertain that a star player in football or basketball is worth a point and a half, the line will have moved a point and a half (or more) before you get around to betting if you wait until news breaks to start forming an opinion.
Here's how sharps handle this...and it's one of the key factors that separates them from the average Joe.
*Sharps have general assessments of what any key player is worth, and also have an informed 'gut' about the impact any a change will have on a team.
*Sharps BET THE NEWS when it happens on the assumption that any improvement provides an edge over time, or any injury loss hurts the team because a starter is worth something, even if it's only a fraction of a point. You face situations like this enough over a betting career for those fractions to add up.
*After betting the news early, sharps will buy back if public reaction provides the opportunity for a middle. Sharps know the public tends to overreact to news. If a player is really only worth 1 point, squares will think he's worth 2-3. If a starting quarterback goes out...sharps will assume the end of the world is at hand for his team...when the adjustment is relatively minor. Over time, enough of those middles hit to justify the effort.
I've seen many people 'misread' an instant line move from news as 'the public overreacting.' Look, the public doesn't move that quickly. Instant line changes are sharps attacking for value, and oddsmakers defending against sharp attacks. If there's a bandwagon effect closer to game time, THAT'S the public overreacting. And, sharps are happy to see it because they'll be buying back and getting value both ways.
The bottom line is that it's all about value. Professional wagerers try to find +EV situations. Breaking news creates that in at least one, and often two directions. The pointspread drama you saw for Monday's Vikings/Jets game is a reflection of that. We had already seen big moves due to quarterback injuries in the colleges and the pros. Just wait until James or Wade has to miss time for the Heat. What if they're BOTH out for a few games? What is that worth? Why are you waiting until an injury to think about it? Think like a sharp and act like a sharp. Prepare NOW so you can move on the news"

[JR007]

"MOSS TRADE RAISES AGE OLD QUESTION...
AND PREPARE NOW FOR HEAT INJURIES!
How many points is Randy Moss worth?
The line in Monday Night's Minnesota/NY Jets game made a significant move when it was announced that Moss was heading to the Vikings from the New England Patriots in a rare midseason trade of a big name player. Sharps (professional wagerers) acted quickly to take positions on assumptions that:
*Moss was worth SOMETHING for the Vikings, and that 'something' hadn't been factored into the prior line.
*Other sharps would also think he was worth 'something,' and had to be beaten to the punch.
*Squares (the general public) were likely to react as well, potentially driving the line high enough for middle and buy back opportunities. Even if you think Moss is worth only half a point, it pays to get in early because of profit potential that might be created down the road.
The market will settle on a price before kickoff, which will reflect a composite view of Moss's value. Is that the best way to determine his value? Or, is it just averaging together guesses of people who don't really know? Averaging the unknowable doesn't make it knowable.
I was thinking about discussing this issue with you again even before the Moss trade. You'll recall that within minutes of the 'big three' for Miami Heat taking the court in an exhibition game...Dwyane Wade had to leave with an injury. Have you prepared for THAT yet...the VERY likely occurrence of either Wade, Lebron James, or Chris Bosh having to miss time during the soon-to-start NBA regular season because of a bum ankle or sprained wrist?
How much is Lebron James worth in the Nevada line? Does that number change depending on the team he plays for? Was he worth 3-4 points in the line for Cleveland because they lacked depth...but just 1-2 points for Miami because Wade and Bosh will easily make up for LeBron's absence? Is it more in both cases?
Let me guess. You hadn't thought about it much. And, you'd rather just wait until an injury (or another big NFL trade) happens before you analyze the situation.
Folks, sharps are going to beat you to the punch. WHATEVER you decide, the value is likely to be gone. If you 'correctly' ascertain that a star player in football or basketball is worth a point and a half, the line will have moved a point and a half (or more) before you get around to betting if you wait until news breaks to start forming an opinion.
Here's how sharps handle this...and it's one of the key factors that separates them from the average Joe.
*Sharps have general assessments of what any key player is worth, and also have an informed 'gut' about the impact any a change will have on a team.
*Sharps BET THE NEWS when it happens on the assumption that any improvement provides an edge over time, or any injury loss hurts the team because a starter is worth something, even if it's only a fraction of a point. You face situations like this enough over a betting career for those fractions to add up.
*After betting the news early, sharps will buy back if public reaction provides the opportunity for a middle. Sharps know the public tends to overreact to news. If a player is really only worth 1 point, squares will think he's worth 2-3. If a starting quarterback goes out...sharps will assume the end of the world is at hand for his team...when the adjustment is relatively minor. Over time, enough of those middles hit to justify the effort.
I've seen many people 'misread' an instant line move from news as 'the public overreacting.' Look, the public doesn't move that quickly. Instant line changes are sharps attacking for value, and oddsmakers defending against sharp attacks. If there's a bandwagon effect closer to game time, THAT'S the public overreacting. And, sharps are happy to see it because they'll be buying back and getting value both ways.
The bottom line is that it's all about value. Professional wagerers try to find +EV situations. Breaking news creates that in at least one, and often two directions. The pointspread drama you saw for Monday's Vikings/Jets game is a reflection of that. We had already seen big moves due to quarterback injuries in the colleges and the pros. Just wait until James or Wade has to miss time for the Heat. What if they're BOTH out for a few games? What is that worth? Why are you waiting until an injury to think about it? Think like a sharp and act like a sharp. Prepare NOW so you can move on the news"

[ojs69]

Gl lb

[JayTrotter]

The world opens up tonight, and for one night we get to see a glimpse of what could be the greatest WR and QB combination of our time. Sure they are both at the end of hall of fame careers, and questions about their commitment and chemistry abound.

I for one would love to see Farve throw deep to Moss. As a tribute to the fans, they better look for 84 down the field, early and often. Who cares about anyone else in this game? We want Moss on Revis island. The Jets say they are the best, well let's see it. This is exciting, this is why we love football.

[JoMoney2785]

"MOSS TRADE RAISES AGE OLD QUESTION...
AND PREPARE NOW FOR HEAT INJURIES!
How many points is Randy Moss worth?
The line in Monday Night's Minnesota/NY Jets game made a significant move when it was announced that Moss was heading to the Vikings from the New England Patriots in a rare midseason trade of a big name player. Sharps (professional wagerers) acted quickly to take positions on assumptions that:
*Moss was worth SOMETHING for the Vikings, and that 'something' hadn't been factored into the prior line.
*Other sharps would also think he was worth 'something,' and had to be beaten to the punch.
*Squares (the general public) were likely to react as well, potentially driving the line high enough for middle and buy back opportunities. Even if you think Moss is worth only half a point, it pays to get in early because of profit potential that might be created down the road.
The market will settle on a price before kickoff, which will reflect a composite view of Moss's value. Is that the best way to determine his value? Or, is it just averaging together guesses of people who don't really know? Averaging the unknowable doesn't make it knowable.
I was thinking about discussing this issue with you again even before the Moss trade. You'll recall that within minutes of the 'big three' for Miami Heat taking the court in an exhibition game...Dwyane Wade had to leave with an injury. Have you prepared for THAT yet...the VERY likely occurrence of either Wade, Lebron James, or Chris Bosh having to miss time during the soon-to-start NBA regular season because of a bum ankle or sprained wrist?
How much is Lebron James worth in the Nevada line? Does that number change depending on the team he plays for? Was he worth 3-4 points in the line for Cleveland because they lacked depth...but just 1-2 points for Miami because Wade and Bosh will easily make up for LeBron's absence? Is it more in both cases?
Let me guess. You hadn't thought about it much. And, you'd rather just wait until an injury (or another big NFL trade) happens before you analyze the situation.
Folks, sharps are going to beat you to the punch. WHATEVER you decide, the value is likely to be gone. If you 'correctly' ascertain that a star player in football or basketball is worth a point and a half, the line will have moved a point and a half (or more) before you get around to betting if you wait until news breaks to start forming an opinion.
Here's how sharps handle this...and it's one of the key factors that separates them from the average Joe.
*Sharps have general assessments of what any key player is worth, and also have an informed 'gut' about the impact any a change will have on a team.
*Sharps BET THE NEWS when it happens on the assumption that any improvement provides an edge over time, or any injury loss hurts the team because a starter is worth something, even if it's only a fraction of a point. You face situations like this enough over a betting career for those fractions to add up.
*After betting the news early, sharps will buy back if public reaction provides the opportunity for a middle. Sharps know the public tends to overreact to news. If a player is really only worth 1 point, squares will think he's worth 2-3. If a starting quarterback goes out...sharps will assume the end of the world is at hand for his team...when the adjustment is relatively minor. Over time, enough of those middles hit to justify the effort.
I've seen many people 'misread' an instant line move from news as 'the public overreacting.' Look, the public doesn't move that quickly. Instant line changes are sharps attacking for value, and oddsmakers defending against sharp attacks. If there's a bandwagon effect closer to game time, THAT'S the public overreacting. And, sharps are happy to see it because they'll be buying back and getting value both ways.
The bottom line is that it's all about value. Professional wagerers try to find +EV situations. Breaking news creates that in at least one, and often two directions. The pointspread drama you saw for Monday's Vikings/Jets game is a reflection of that. We had already seen big moves due to quarterback injuries in the colleges and the pros. Just wait until James or Wade has to miss time for the Heat. What if they're BOTH out for a few games? What is that worth? Why are you waiting until an injury to think about it? Think like a sharp and act like a sharp. Prepare NOW so you can move on the news"

great post as always. i feel like i know alot about wagering and finding the best value, but you always teach me something new. thank you JR

[AmpleGamble]

Any thoughts on the over/under tonight LB?

[sharper2]

if bodog's offering 38.5 as the total and pinny has 39.5, shouldn't i take bodog's over 38.5?

[AmpleGamble]

Bodog has the total at 40...?

[sharper2]

oh sbrodds says 38.5, sorry..just went onto bodog and they actually have it at 40.5

[landers781]

Seems as though pinnacle tt went from 23 to 21.5 in a flash as well...wonder if it was just a mistake or somoen hammered the under

[iloseagain]

under 40 (1x)

[Goat Milk]

don't think about public numbers in this game. the books are wayyyy ahead in nfl this week whether or not they take a hit on this game. this game doesn't mean shit, money was flowing in this sunday like it was nothing.

[Goat Milk]

good luck people. i think sanchez struggles tonight big time.

[sharper2]

good luck people. i think sanchez struggles tonight big time.

so do you like the under in this game?

[Goat Milk]

so do you like the under in this game?

sharper i think that total is real sharp and i say its not worth it. i would lean vikings with the points though but LB is smart to play this game safe and just throw a bill on it. these types of games are pretty unpredictable with all the new changes. holmes, reevis, pace all back. moss.

[sharper2]

Matchy:
10/11 20:07 39½ +108 / 39½ -110
10/11 20:12 39½ +110 / 39½ -121
10/11 20:12 39½ +110 / 39½ -111
10/11 20:12 39½ +110 / 39½ -121
10/11 20:12 39½ +110 / 39½ -111
10/11 20:14 39½ +111 / 39½ -113

pinnacle:

10/11 20:09 39½ +102 / 39½ -113
10/11 20:12 39½ +107 / 39½ -118
10/11 20:15 38½ +102 / 38½ -112


pretty big movements supporting the under no? good luck goatmilk on your plays though

[og4667]

lots of late money on the under for sure.

[kmarinouofm]

got some great prices..

Jets -3 -125

Under 39.5 -115

Lets get it boys..

[sharper2]

10/11 20:24 38 +100 / 38 -110
latest movement from pinny..i got 40.5 already, LB this money on the under has to be legit right? almost feels like too much money on the under for it to be real..