the thing that stands out to me the most is that Lovie Smith is 4-1 on MNF & 22-15 in the division and Mike Mcarthy is 3-5 on MNF & 17-7 in the division. Smith has a pretty nice SU record on MNF
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I will have some plays on this game but not till later. Still working on this game.Comment -
So a guy thats been gambling since 1969 is tailing guys that haven't gambled for nearly as long. I guarantee you there is no one else on this site that has gambled for 41 years. I don't get it. Please explain to me why you tail a lakerboy or a paco or a goatmilk when we should all be considered rookies compared to you.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Here's an interesting stat I read on ESPN.com. "The Cowboys were in their base 3-4 defense for most of the game & only had five or more defensive backs on the field for 11 of Jay Cutlers pass attempts. Last year, Cutler had a 58.9 completion percentage & threw 20 interceptions with 5 or more defensive backs on the field." I would think after watching tape of Cutler picking apart the Cowboys blitz the Pack will scale back their blitzing & play a lot more nickel & dime packages against Cutler.Comment -
You guys are not "rookies" when it comes to reading line movement...again, as i mentioned to you before....computer involvement is relatively new.....moneyline movement either did not exist...or was only known in a few inner circles .in vegas........back in the day
offshore is also relatively new as well in the old days you took the line out of the paper
and compared it with the local's.....it was like that for decades....it 'evolved shrough "sportspagers"...in the 1990's when the internet was very crude..the sportspagers gave you two or three books to compare "spreads"....not moneylines with the exception of obviously baseball..updated every 5 min.....so it is a whole new era with all the info updated almost instantly.
You guys are part of the "computer generation"....having a tote board ie (sbr odds) is amazing to me. The common sense things like money management,and angles and trends which I post......all all that we had back then.....as well as the newletters..ie gold sheet,sports reporter etc......more of a reflection of the past rather than the present.
the computer does this now....ie updating odds to the minuteComment -
line movement favors the Bears big time right now. I am sure LakerBoy will play the Bears tonight.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
...thank you Goatie!!!!
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you guys make me laughComment -
There is another reason says that LB will play the Bears. He will fade the publicComment -
don't matter tommy there is almost the same amount of money on the bears as gb tonight.
LakerBoy taking the bears because of the RLM you will see
Under is the best play on the boardCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
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whys that no coincidences?Comment -
I hate it when LB is on the opposite side of a big play from Paco, and vice versa. I personally think the bears are the play tonight for several of the same reasons mentioned above me. Can't decide if I'm gonna pull the trigger or not though- fading a 20x bet from Paco is never wise
Goat- What's your best sport if you don't mind me asking?Comment -
And that is extremely smart. If you're playing a team it has to be the Bears or no play.
Although there has been no line movement, there has been a lack of movement with the public pounding GB. Given it takes a lot to move it off of a number like "3" but still, I see Bears or no-play.Comment -
yea no way you can play a public road fav on MNF especially in a division game, its just a question of whether the Bears deserve a play and how big. I doubt the public wins both the side and the total.
The more I look at the under 46 the better it gets. Since 1/05' none of the 11 games between these two teams reached higher than 47 pts. All games @ Chicago: 45, 26, 33, 43, 37, 35 and all games at GB were: 41, 26, 47, 40, 36. Obviously different teams now but this is a division game so coaching staff knows each other well. Add in the bonus that Cutler likes to throw it away in the red zone and I think this could be the best play for tonight.Comment -
i thought the best bet on the board was Green Bay TT under 24 (-110) because i can beat pinny by 3 cents. However, BP is favoring the over so it's a no bet for me. Not thrill with the Bears TT being 21.5 eitherComment -
im sticking with my theory for primetime games..i dont care what the team is bad or good if you are gonna give me points with the home team i am gonna take them..bears for me +3 and ml for a little too...good luck guysComment -
i put in a teaser of GB +3 1/2 and over 39 1/2... the game will come down to a field goal again at the endComment -
I kind of like the under 23.5 1st half. Good luck tonight LBComment -
does this sound too easy or what - total sacks tonight over/under 4 1/2
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that's not a good teaser man, switching -3 +3 ....never doing that.Comment -
i thought there would be more rlm going on right now but therse notCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
based on line movement bears are still the play but i don't trust cutler or the bears. pinny has offered + money on the Packers spread the whole weekend bro they are not budgingCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Yep, seeing the same thing you guys are. Goat and NO C. Although there is no RLM, with a game this big (MNF) and one side being pounded above 73% the whole week at all books and a key number like 3, I tend to think this is almost as good as RLM. Just my theory, have tracked this stuff pretty thoroughly the last 2.5 years.
I'd like to hear what you 2 think?Comment -
Damn. I really have no clue. I've been holding off on this game for the whole weekend. My first gut impression was Packers. But ever since all I hear is Bears, Bears, Bears. Then pack comes out with 20x Packers then I read more of the forum and its like PACKERS! BEARS! OVER! UNDER! I'm the type that likes to collect all the info I can and then pull the trigger, but to be honest I'm at a loss.
I'm probably going to pass on this game. Literally I would have no problem losing $100 or $200 here, and I've definitely dropped $1K -$2K before. Followed the SCS's before, etc. And frig, paco has 20x on the game, it definitely makes me want to.
Honestly if I had to pick I side I would go back to my roots, I'd go back to my gut: Packers -3. paco is on it large and I would love to as well.
Don't think I'll ever pass on a MNF game again, but I'll pass here.
If I had to pick I side I's stick with paco and the Packers, best of luck to all.Comment -
yes broadway and love they will not move it to 2,5
Bears/Packers Under 45.5 (local line) 0.5x
i have no angles on this game good luck everyoneCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Packers TT under 24-110 (1x)
Some money just came in on the under here.Comment -
speaking from experience, go with your gut or don't play. i've lost so much money following one thread that pops up or going back and forth between cappers and end up picking the wrong play. i skipped last night's game b/c i wasn't confident and that's a rare feat for me. Pick a winner or pass until next week.
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Yeah, this is a tough call. Going to fade the public on 2 very, very small plays, Chicago +3 and the under.
When in doubt fade the public with the home dog in the NFL. I agree with most this is a tough call and I would not lay anything down if I wasn't playing with profit and even then, these are F*ck around bets.
GL to everyone.Comment
I do not know as much as you so I need to tail.....