I'm sure this had to be discussed earlier already, but I just now caught this writeup.

Winning NFL systems for Week 5 and beyond

By: LT Profits Sports Group

Week 5 of the NFL is here, and teams have played enough games for their statistics to become meaningful. This sets up two positive angles, one with a 17-year track record that focuses on defense, and one that we have studied for just two years that focuses on rushing offense that has shown great potential so far.


We have now reached Week 5 of the NFL season, which means that teams have now played enough games where their formulated statistics have become meaningful.

Starting this week, two of our favorite NFL betting angles kick in, one of which has stood the test of time for 17 years. Now granted, we have only been tracking the second angle for two years, but we are encouraged by the early results and see no reason why that success will not continue.

Now most fans and casual bettors fall in love with the explosive offensive teams, as the so-called squares love to bet on exiting clubs that could light up the scoreboard, even if their defense gives up points as fast as the offense scores them. While teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals score high on the entertainment scale, they are usually poor plays against the spread, and they hardly ever advance far in the post-season. As evidence, note that while the Indianapolis Colts have had the highest-powered offense in the league for quite some time, they did not win a Super Bowl until they finally assembled a defense.

This leads us to our favorite system to play now that we have reached Week 5. All you have to do is find the teams that are ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in both rushing defense and passing defense, based on yards per game allowed, and bet them if they are at home. This may seem very simplistic, but with gamblers usually overbetting the more offensive teams, these defensive juggernauts are 193-139, 58.1 percent against the spread when playing at home in Week 5 or later since 1990.

Furthermore, if we eliminate favorites produced by this angle of 10 points or more, the single-digit home favorites and rare home underdogs are 176-122, 59.1 percent ATS! Naturally, with an average of 18 plays per year, be prepared for at least one week per year where there are no plays however.

For your information, there are only two teams in the top 10 in both of those categories at the end of Week 4: the New England Patriots (seventh vs. pass, third vs. run) and Pittsburgh Steelers (eighth vs. pass, eighth vs. run). Both of those clubs are home this week, although the Patriots may be favored by double-digits.

For those craving more action beginning in Week 5, we have explored a second angle the last two seasons that only looks at rushing offense, specifically for home and away. All you have to do compare the rushing yards per game in home games only for the home team with the rushing yards per game in road games only for the road team. If the difference per game is less than four full yards, the game is a pass. If one team is four full yards per game or more better than the other team and is an underdog, it becomes an automatic play. If the team with more rushing yards is the favorite, you would set what we will call a “rushing line” by dividing the yardage difference by four. If this result is at least a full half point higher than the posted line, the team would also become a play.

To illustrate, let us say the home team averages 115.5 rushing yards at home and the road team averages 90.5 rushing yards on the road. The difference of 25 yards would convert to a rushing line of the home team -6.25 (25/4). Since a difference of at least .50 is needed, our favorite would be a play up to -5½, and a pass at -6 or more. This rather easy to follow method is 80-59, 57.6 percent ATS from Week 5 onward the last two years!

Hopefully history will repeat itself in the 2007 NFL season, and we can all reap the rewards with a very profitable year.