REDSKINS UNDER 7 1/2 Wins

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    REDSKINS UNDER 7 1/2 Wins
    This one just jumps out at me as a play that I cant pass up. I can see why they are bumping up the Redskins win total so high, as this is an entirely different Redskins team than that from last year.

    I think the books/Vegas is expecting a lot of squares to just come jumping on this Redskin bandwagon now as it is a 100% different team, and as a result this win total has been set way way way too high.

    I see this total at 8 under -175 in one spot but in most places its under 7 1/2 +100 or +110. IMO there is no reason to lay the -175 juice because the Redskins wont even sniff 6 wins let alone 8.

    The reason that the win total is set so high is this. They have a new coach in 2 time superbowl winner Mike Shanahan, They brought over Donavan McNabb from division rival Philly, they added Jason Campbell from the Raiders, they added Larry Johnson from teh Bengals, and Willie Parker from the Steelers.

    They did all this adding while managing to hold onto all their star players. the Redskins return Santan Moss, Clinton Portis, and London Fletcher. I think the average bettor will look at this newly restyled Redskin team and think wow, they will win 8 games easy. I promise you that they wont.

    Number 1, Donovan McNabb is an old man, who wasnt even that good 5 years ago. Dude is almost 34 years old, this guy is almost as old as Brett Farve. There is a reason that the Eagles let him go to a division rival, they know he isnt very good. Would the Colts trade Manning to Tennessee ? Would they Patriots trade Brady to The Jets ? Did the Packers trade Farve to the Vikings ? Of course not. The Eagles did it because they know that McNabb is not going to be a threat to them.

    Next, there is a lot that this team will have a great running game since they added Johnson and Parker to shore up the backfield with Portis. These guys are all old, they are all in their 30's which is old in NFL terms. Last year, these 3 guys combined for a total of 1 touchdown and less than 490 total yards average. So its questionable to me why anyone thinks these guys are going to make the Redskins a running game powerhouse.

    This team had the worst passing defense in the NFL last year and they didnt draft any linemen last year, so the whole job is pretty much left to Phillip daniels who is starting his 14th season and has only 3 sacks in the last 3 seasons.

    This team is very old, this team has terrible pass defense and not very good rushing defense, this team also plays a very very tough schedule. This team flat out wont win 8 games. No way. Not in one of the best conferences in the NFL.

    I am not sold on this offense as so many people seem to be, but even if you believe in this offense it doesnt do any good at all if your defense cant stop the opponent and get your offense back on the field. Dont forget, this team gave up 85 points in its last 3 games last season, and 158 points in its last 6. The defense was miserable and nothing has been dont to improve it.

    The Redksins schedule is brutal. They obviously play 6 games against Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants. They will be very very lucky to go 2-4 in these 6 as the Cowboys and Giants will be very good and I think the Eagles will be pretty good as well. Then in non division games, they have to play Houston, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Jacksonville.

    I really believe they will go 0-4 against the AFC South. That makes 8 losses right there even before you figure they probably go 1-2 against Green Bay, Minnesota, and the Bears.

    I dont see how this total is 7 1/2 and + 100 to the under because I see the Redskins finishing 5-11 or 4-12.
  • slacker00
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 10-06-05
    • 12262

    #2
    Solid analysis, nobs. I've got them right around 7 wins. You're right about the division being brutal and the AFC South & NFC North being tough. Heck the Lions might even beat the Skins. Even so, I don't think McNabb is close to being washed up and Shanny has more control than Danny boy has given any other coach including Gibbs. I'm not sure if Shanny can recapture his magic he made with Elway and I do think this team could be decent if they catch a few good breaks, but they could be terrible if they catch some bad breaks. I was thinking more like 8-8 for the Skins as a fair line, but you've convinced me down to 7. That's solid.
    Comment
    • Skidcom
      SBR MVP
      • 11-17-06
      • 1796

      #3
      Good analysis and the "Skins are definitely overrated
      Comment
      • Numbnuts
        SBR MVP
        • 10-02-09
        • 1581

        #4
        One more observation: HUGE o-lineman Mike Williams out for the year
        Comment
        • chase1
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-02-09
          • 842

          #5
          Did the Redskins pick up broken down Westbrook? I thought I heard something about this a few weeks ago. I agree though, the Redskins are good for 6 maybe 7 wins. It will be a sucker bet to take over 7.5 because of those reasons you mentioned about adding those star players and retaining the few they have. Their schedule is just too hard.
          Comment
          • mlb
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-04-09
            • 10509

            #6
            I love it. I have them at 6-10
            Comment
            • whatsgood5
              Restricted User
              • 10-13-09
              • 15359

              #7
              While I won't and shouldn't argue with this since I am a big Redskins fan, it definitely is worth mentioning the improvement to the offensive line this off-season, which was clearly the thing that hurt us the most last year.

              Trent Williams and Jamaal Brown are absolutely excellent additions. Artis Hicks gives us some good depth, and Selvish Capers could be a key sleeper from the draft.

              Originally posted by chase1
              Did the Redskins pick up broken down Westbrook? I thought I heard something about this a few weeks ago. I agree though, the Redskins are good for 6 maybe 7 wins. It will be a sucker bet to take over 7.5 because of those reasons you mentioned about adding those star players and retaining the few they have. Their schedule is just too hard.
              Not yet, haven't heard much recently either, but the last thing I recall seeing had us as front-runners.
              Comment
              • TheJer
                Restricted User
                • 11-25-08
                • 308

                #8
                Nice write up. I will jump on board and agree on the under.
                Comment
                • MarlinsFan2212
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-19-10
                  • 1325

                  #9
                  8-8, Over.
                  Comment
                  • Numbnuts
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-02-09
                    • 1581

                    #10
                    I can't get any better than Under 7.5 -120, just dropped a few hungie on it.
                    Comment
                    • coloradobuff
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-22-09
                      • 1488

                      #11
                      i think they go under aswell
                      Comment
                      • eidolon
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-02-08
                        • 9531

                        #12
                        i think 8 at -175 is fine.
                        for season wins, i like to think: can they go 9-7? that is probably their best probable record. Can they go 7-9 or 8-8? both have about the same chance, so I wouldn't want to gamble on game 8 (7 1/2), unless I plan on hedging at the end of the year if needed.
                        Comment
                        • obamaismyuncle
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 12-31-08
                          • 17801

                          #13
                          Redskins over 7.5. I guess I am square
                          Comment
                          • twotone74
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 07-29-10
                            • 10

                            #14
                            Being a Dallas fan yeah i have to agree under, i think they hit the 7 mark all depends on their O-Line and How that new defense performs - Like the Packers switching last year but i don't believe Washington has the secondary or the linebackers like the Packers did.
                            Comment
                            • rfr3sh
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-07-09
                              • 10229

                              #15
                              will be close to the number
                              Comment
                              • mickeybenson
                                SBR Rookie
                                • 07-04-10
                                • 46

                                #16
                                Under. McNabb can't do it himself and he is a year older.
                                Comment
                                • nobs
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 08-31-09
                                  • 4216

                                  #17
                                  It seems that everyone and his momma is on this under
                                  Comment
                                  • nobs
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 08-31-09
                                    • 4216

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Numbnuts
                                    I can't get any better than Under 7.5 -120, just dropped a few hungie on it.

                                    Yeah this is moving to the under.

                                    Now 7 1/2 under -140 is about the best I see at any of the top tier books.

                                    The Greek had it 7 1/2 under +100 a few days ago but now they have it 7 1/2 under -140.

                                    I wouldnt be surprised to see this move to 7 soon.
                                    Comment
                                    • rm18
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 09-20-05
                                      • 22291

                                      #19
                                      they are a solid team but i think it is a pretty rough schedule in a strong division
                                      Comment
                                      • nobs
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 08-31-09
                                        • 4216

                                        #20
                                        Yeah, their non division schedule is brutal too
                                        Comment
                                        • lakerboy
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-02-09
                                          • 94379

                                          #21
                                          They have one of the toughest schedules in the league. Should be a good play.
                                          Comment
                                          • helicopter23
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 05-25-07
                                            • 622

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Numbnuts
                                            One more observation: HUGE o-lineman Mike Williams out for the year
                                            Mike Williams was going to back up Artis Hicks at right guard. Skins have 3 new oline starting this year being Trent Williams (4th pick in draft), Jamaal Brown at RT(trade from saints) and Hicks. Also Phillip Daniels is backing up Adam Carriker at LE, because skins are moving to a 3-4 this year.
                                            Comment
                                            • helicopter23
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 05-25-07
                                              • 622

                                              #23
                                              I am a huge skins fan so I am biased but... They played in alot of close games last year and lost because of there coaching. There offense was so horrible last year, this year it should be around middle of the pack instead of dead last.
                                              Comment
                                              • JW Cash
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-31-08
                                                • 4453

                                                #24
                                                McNabb will definately get 10..maybe 12 wins this year....


                                                Why ???


                                                Cause they can....
                                                Comment
                                                • frostno98
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-11-07
                                                  • 9769

                                                  #25
                                                  Number 1, Donovan McNabb is an old man, who wasnt even that good 5 years ago.

                                                  When I last check didn't McNabb lead the Eagles to playoffs in 2008 and 2009You guys worry about his age is probably the biggest deception, his age will only affect him if he runs. The guy is still a great passer and can read defense, and he's got talented receivers to complement that. He will single handley improve this dreadful offense.

                                                  Next, there is a lot that this team will have a great running game since they added Johnson and Parker to shore up the backfield with Portis. These guys are all old, they are all in their 30's which is old in NFL terms. Last year, these 3 guys combined for a total of 1 touchdown and less than 490 total yards average.

                                                  Their also another flaw deception in this reasoning. Clinton Portis(28 years old) played in only 8 games in a redzoneless offense, while Larry Johnson played in only 7, while sitting the bench most of the time. So those stat don't really tell you much. I don't really vouch for LJ, but I believe Clinton will have one of his most productive season with Shanahan's running back friendly offense. Remember, Portis did have 1,500 yards just in 2008 and if healthy he should replicate those numbers.

                                                  This team is very old, this team has terrible pass defense and not very good rushing defense, this team also plays a very very tough schedule. This team flat out wont win 8 games. No way. Not in one of the best conferences in the NFL.

                                                  As bad as you might think their defense were, they played hard in every game last year. Despite not getting much help from their injury riddle offense. Even though this team only had 4 total wins in 2009, they had 7 others games that were very winnable that they lost by a touchdown or less.

                                                  Just glancing at the schedule, Redskins are talented enough to beat anyone on it with the exception of the Colts. I don't think the Eagles are a better team without McNabb, Dallas still has Phillips who's too laid back, and the Giants are continually regressing without Pelixco Burress.


                                                  And who's to argue against Shanahan impeccable regular season record. In his 14 years in Denver the dude has only gone under .500 two freaking times! 6-10 in 1999 and 7-9 in 2007. Both of those years he had a QB that was very inexperience in Griese and Cutler, that were essentially rookies. With a Hall of Fame QB like McNabb(barring injuries), and under offensive genius Mike Shanahan, the Redskins have a great chance to win 8 games or more.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nobs
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 08-31-09
                                                    • 4216

                                                    #26
                                                    This play might win and this play might lose, but I guarantee you if the Redskins start off 6-0, I won't "do the Frostno" and come in here talking about how great the Redskins are, and how they will win 12 games easily and how they are going to get a first round bye.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • vboyt
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-18-09
                                                      • 357

                                                      #27
                                                      lol nobs lol
                                                      Comment
                                                      • vegasfred
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-17-09
                                                        • 126

                                                        #28
                                                        When I last check didn't McNabb lead the Eagles to playoffs in 2008 and 2009You guys worry about his age is probably the biggest deception, his age will only affect him if he runs. The guy is still a great passer and can read defense, and he's got talented receivers to complement that. He will single handley improve this dreadful offense.

                                                        The Eagles are a good team all around and have been through all the McNabb years. Other than the WR position which didn't come into fruition until the past year, they've always been solid. Remember that AJ Feely, Jeff Garcia, and Koy Detmer all had success when called upon.

                                                        Their also another flaw deception in this reasoning. Clinton Portis(28 years old) played in only 8 games in a redzoneless offense, while Larry Johnson played in only 7, while sitting the bench most of the time. So those stat don't really tell you much. I don't really vouch for LJ, but I believe Clinton will have one of his most productive season with Shanahan's running back friendly offense. Remember, Portis did have 1,500 yards just in 2008 and if healthy he should replicate those numbers.

                                                        I like Portis a lot, but though he's 28 yo, he's in his 30's as far as RB age with all the wear he took the first years with Shanny in Denver and then in Wash. For RB breakdown example see career of Terrell Davis.

                                                        As bad as you might think their defense were, they played hard in every game last year. Despite not getting much help from their injury riddle offense. Even though this team only had 4 total wins in 2009, they had 7 others games that were very winnable that they lost by a touchdown or less.

                                                        The NFL is ALL ABOUT games decided by 7 points or less. Every team has close games. What separates the great ones are they win those games like the Patriots did for all those Super Bowl years. The Colts were 7-0 in those games last year. The Redskins 0-7. And playing hard doesn't get you any points. Most teams play hard, they just don't all win.

                                                        Just glancing at the schedule, Redskins are talented enough to beat anyone on it with the exception of the Colts. I don't think the Eagles are a better team without McNabb, Dallas still has Phillips who's too laid back, and the Giants are continually regressing without Pelixco Burress.

                                                        Check out Eagles camp sometime, Kolb is a precision throwing machine. Very Aaron Rodgers like but we'll see in actual games. Dallas talent makes up for their lack of coaching. The Giants had a pretty good WR core last year without Plaxico. Smith, Manningam and Nicks were a pretty darn formidable trio, and young at that.


                                                        And who's to argue against Shanahan impeccable regular season record. In his 14 years in Denver the dude has only gone under .500 two freaking times! 6-10 in 1999 and 7-9 in 2007. Both of those years he had a QB that was very inexperience in Griese and Cutler, that were essentially rookies. With a Hall of Fame QB like McNabb(barring injuries), and under offensive genius Mike Shanahan, the Redskins have a great chance to win 8 games or more.

                                                        Don't forget that Broncos are in the AFC West. Shanahan steered this team to exactly .500 the last 3 years he was there and that included 4 cupcake games a year against the Raiders and Chiefs. He won't have that luxury this year. As for being a genius, think about this.


                                                        Since John Elway retired 1998:

                                                        A TOTAL of ONE Division Championship. He couldn't even win his own division but ONE TIME in 11 years.

                                                        1 - 4 playoff record. A TOTAL of ONE playoff win in the last 11 years. They only made it 4 times anyway.


                                                        If you can resonably go through the schedule and point out 8 wins I will listen to the argument, but come up with some real reasons not, "Wade is too laid back". Laid back got them to 11-5 last year and the playoffs ....
                                                        Comment
                                                        • vegasfred
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 11-17-09
                                                          • 126

                                                          #29
                                                          I see the Skins at 6 wins this year.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • RockBottom
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-03-08
                                                            • 1448

                                                            #30
                                                            Old team at the skilled positions in a tough division -7 wins tops
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Snowball
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 11-15-09
                                                              • 30062

                                                              #31
                                                              Skins will make the playoffs.
                                                              They can win the division.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • officepoolguy
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 07-19-10
                                                                • 384

                                                                #32
                                                                If the Skins beat St. Louis, Philly (2), Chicago, Detroit, Tampa, Jacksonville and either Houston or Tennesse you have your 8 wins. I see 8 as a real possibility. Being old does not matter at QB (look at Farve, Warner and McNabb). I think they lost 8 games by 3 points or less and now they have one of the easiest schedules (against opposing qbs) in the league. If you bet against 8 wins you are in for a long handicapping season.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • frostno98
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-11-07
                                                                  • 9769

                                                                  #33
                                                                  A TOTAL of ONE Division Championship. He couldn't even win his own division but ONE TIME in 11 years.

                                                                  1 - 4 playoff record. A TOTAL of ONE playoff win in the last 11 years. They only made it 4 times anyway.

                                                                  Yeah, does that tell you anything about him not being a to win 8 games or more.
                                                                  The guy is a proven regular season winner. In 14 years at Denver Shanahan has only gone below 8-8 twice. 6-10 with Griese and 7-9 with Cutler, because he had two very inexperience Quarterbacks. If Donovan McNabb is healthy for the entire season, the Redskin will win at least eight games. McNabbs uncertainty is the only reason why I won't take a chance on this play.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Goat Milk
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 03-24-10
                                                                    • 25850

                                                                    #34
                                                                    This is not a good play, even if it wins. If it wins, it's going to be 7 games, they will not win 6, they will not win 5, minimum they win is 7 games imo, therefore it is not a good play because there is no room for error in this play.

                                                                    You are underestimating Mike Shannahan. He will bring the best out of Portis and a fresh O line. McNabb sucks? When was the last time McNabb did not make the playoffs? And please tell me what receivers McNabb has had around him during his career. Veterans know how to win games, period, and this team is full of veterans that want to win more than anything.
                                                                    Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Yankeeclipper22
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 08-03-10
                                                                      • 202

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I couldn't disagree more with the original post. You are highly underestimating the Redskins. You have no idea about the ineptness of the past coaches. They were to quote my favorite former NBA player "TURRRIBLE." You could argue that they now have the best coaching staff in the NFC east. Not to mention when you compare this Redskins teams to past Eagles teams that Mcnabb played on that made it to the NFC championship game, I think it matches up favorably. This defense will be much improved under Haslett. It will be attacking and versatile. I'm not expecting 12 wins, but I don't think 9-7 is a stretch at all. Mcnabb is far from washed up. Kolb is not a precision passing machine, just look at his past stats. How one can conclude that after a couple training camp practices is beyond me. The only thing that could derail the skins at the moment is injuries and right now at the moment the Eagles are being derailed with Macklin and Jackson going down. Even if Kolb is a precision passer, which I'm not saying he is, he doesn't have the play making ability that Mcnabb does and if his WR's go down, and stay down, philly is screwed.
                                                                      Comment
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