MADDEN's picks

[madden]

Hello all

It's my deepest expectation we all profit huge this year with the NFL.

It's still very early in the season, so I will only place the most interesting observations I get, coming back on fire when the regular season starts.

Hoping to get your comments on my next picks

Soon I intend to create a website/blog, which will include not only picks but news and interesting information regarding the professional football world.

[madden]

NFL Division Winners - picks/value

Well, for those not satisfied with the MLB and NBA betting, there are some alternatives, like picking, this soon already, the NFL DIVISION WINNERS. Here is what I'd pick (all Sportsbook.com odds):

Observation: With months between now and the end of the regular season, anything can happen. That's why I, one time or another, picked not the team I believe would, right now, be their division champions, but the teams where the odds are more distanced from ''real life''. Some favorites really ARE favorites, but the odds turn other teams a more valuable pick.

AFC:

North:

Baltimore -110
Pittsburgh +200
Cincinnati +350
Cleveland +120 By far the worst division to predict. Don't overestimate Baltimore. Most valuable pick: Pittsburgh

South:

Indianapolis -150
Houston +350
Tennessee +350
Jacksonville + 800 Indianapolis.

East:

New England +125
New York +140
Miami +300
Bufalo +2000 New England and New York are almost tied in my heart. Jets is the most valuable pick here.

West:

San Diego -250
Denver +500
Kansas City +600
Oakland +650 San Diego. Denver can surprise like last year, but San Diego is better even at -325.

NFC:

North:

Green Bay +125
Minnesota +140
Chicago +300
Detroit +2000 Don't overestimate the Vikings, die hard fans. Green Bay. Ah! Almost forgot Chicago! (don't do the same)

South:

New Orleans -175
Atlanta +160
Carolina +900
Tampa Bay +2500 New Orleans

East:

Dallas +120
New York +250
Philadelphia +250
Washington +700 New York is more valuable. Dallas still favorite, so far.

West:

San Francisco -125
Arizona +125
Seattle +300
St. Louis +1500. Oww I love San Francisco this year. But in Arizona lies the valuable pick (interesting schedule, btw)

[madden]

(Regular season win lines for each team coming soon)

[vanc]

Agree on Steelers. I think Ravens are overrated right now.

[Zubi]

Madden can't wait till the season starts. What kind of record did you have last year? Thx GS

[samdapatriotsfan]

Good stuff Madden, I cannot wait for the season to start either.

[filter15]

Soo this isn't madden playstation...

anyways good stuff, cant wait till camp

[AlphaOmega]

wrong madden wtf I thought this was a tough actin tanactin prom

[Rig]

Good take
lobe to see more

[madden]

OOww I'm sorry for those who expected something else when they read my nickname...

I am focused on the MLB right now so I'll be probably posting something in this thread only on a weekly basis

@Zubi - Last year was kind of 'magical' to me, everything hitting the jackpot
Unfortunately, I was not as deeply involved with the handicapping world as I am know (my last year's crystal ball being part of the reason why I am, now); that's why I have just recently registered here.

Can't wait for the football season to begin, as I'm sure you all do, and I hope we all profit well!!

[Bannit16]

NFC north is too hard to pick right now, if favre comes back, the vikings are the favorite, if he doesnt, the packers become a very good choice.

[thechaoz]

Ahh talking football never gets old. Ninaz are a lock though. Should of taken it last year

[Zubi]

Looking forward to seeing how you do. I will be following you. Thx for the effort.

[frankzig]

anybody like to parlays?lmk

[Curse Fire]

Cowboys Baby!!!

Go Juice Go!!!

[madden]

Answers to the football fanatics

NFC north is too hard to pick right now, if favre comes back, the vikings are the favorite, if he doesnt, the packers become a very good choice.

I agree. The best play, here, is not to play. Or better: Since both teams (Green Bay and Vikings) have positive odds, you can (if you are not able to control the finger that touches your mouse) bet on both.
I will be incredibly SHOCKED if Chicago wins its division title this year, so you can, let's say, bet $200 on Green Bay (if you win you'll profit 250; and then take 200 out of these 250 and bet on Vikings. If GB wins = +$50 on your bank; If Vikes wins = +$90).

But yes, you're right. Waaaayy too early to be betting huge. Specially on this division. And still, waaay too much money to jeopardize for a relatively small profit.
Good luck!

Ahh talking football never gets old. Ninaz are a lock though. Should of taken it last year

San Francisco is one of my favorite teams this year. I'll be following them very closely. However, Arizona's schedule seems to play for their advantage, compared to the 49ers. And still, they are a very dangerous team, which makes them more valuable, looking at the odds.
You seem to have made up your mind, though, brother. Good luck! 49ers have great chances this year.

Looking forward to seeing how you do. I will be following you. Thx for the effort.

Me too! Thanks, hope I don't cause your bankroll too much trouble (odds -54933 I won't ). You're welcome, brother!

anybody like to parlays?lmk

Specially when odds are too small, but still valuable (say, -400 (which is like 1.25-1, which means you're gonna have to win 4 times to break even if you lose the fifth = 75%) when you consider the result you expect is 85% probable) I enjoy placing some picks on a parlay, since I'm not expecting too profit much on single bets, and the chances of hitting it are not overwhelmingly reduced when you're playing with (at least on your mind) huge favorites.

Maybe I will place some parlays here this season. Follow up!

[madden]

EDIT:

@thechaoz: no doubts 80% of the NFC West title will be determined by the 2 games they will play against one another, though. It's a good idea to check how well they'll play facing one another.

[toober89]

was expecting something about the video game....

[madden]

Sorry, man... but my thread will be as good as the videogame!!

EDIT: I don't like Pittsburgh anymore. This weekend I'll update my second post, probably picking the Ravens as their division winner. I just have to see if Bengal's odds aren't more interesting

[kroyrunner89]

Bengals are quite the interesting team this year, if anyone takes down the Ravens it'll be them so I like your read there

[Cornerback]

Just 4 more long months until FOOTBALL

Oh and welcome.

[slacker00]

Anyone can pick chalk. Give us some gems nobody is talking about.

[brooks85]

bengals are the best bet up there.

[madden]

Just 4 more long months until FOOTBALL Oh and welcome.

Thanks, man! Yeah, I know... all this time between now and the regular season is the reason why this thread will begin slowly

Anyone can pick chalk. Give us some gems nobody is talking about.

Sometimes what's obvious is obvious
I am really busy right now to study hard the NFL, specially with 4 months left to begin the regular season (check quote above).
I already created a blog in which I intend to place the gems you're asking for, but first I have to look for them.
I will turn public it's adress as soon as I get some valuable stuff in it, so check this thread if you want to see stuff nobody talks about in the NFL.
To end, I guess I will use this thread as a way to place my picks, and my picks only, and my blog adress will provide you all the reasons why I consider relevant the picks I place.
Hoping to get more insights from you!

[balman]

good luck madden i will follow your thread but whats with the orange font?

cheers

[johnson]

Like Green Bay this year.

[madden]

good luck madden i will follow your thread but whats with the orange font? cheers

You're right man, I read one of my posts in another computer and it looks really bad, I don't know why it was fine for me before.
I just didn't want the default colorless black and orange is my favorite color.

I will try a football-field green now

Thanks for following!

[GunShard]

49ers and Saints are the only good spots to bet on.

I dislike the Colts and Chargers Head Coaches.

[madden]

49ers and Saints are the only good spots to bet on. I dislike the Colts and Chargers Head Coaches.

I find it really hard to believe the Colts or the Chargers will be worse than their competitors (stuff like Denver or Houston), although I do believe they will have much more problems this year. San Diego may not be a good pick only because they've got very low odds and there's still plenty of time to the beginning of the season.

Interesting for you to mention the 49ers, my new blog's first post will be about them. Don't forget to check it out when I publish it!

[SpreadSniper]

Agree on Steelers. I think Ravens are overrated right now.

I am extremely biased here, but how can you figure the Ravens are "overrated"?

Folks are quick to ignore what Philly can do just cause McNabb left.... from what I saw outta Kolb last season, Philly is in fine shape.

[jhack704]

tampa +2500... what the last 5 of 6 yrs or so the last place team from previous yr won the division the next yr. i think carolina won it when atl lost in ryans rookie yr in week 17. why not bet 100 and see if you can win 2500

[madden]

I am extremely biased here, but how can you figure the Ravens are "overrated"? Folks are quick to ignore what Philly can do just cause McNabb left.... from what I saw outta Kolb last season, Philly is in fine shape.

Thank you very much for your insights, brother.
As I said, these are thoughts to be considered while extremely early in the year. And I said, a couple of posts above, that I don't like Pittsburgh anymore . Soon I will repost (or edit) what I said above, but only 1 or 2 different considerations.

About the "overrated" stuff: I use to look at the odds before I place a pick. 1- Is Baltimore a playoff potential? Definitely. 2- Is Baltimore a Superbowl potential? Why not??? 3- With strong competition like Pittsburgh and Bengals in their division, and still months away from the beginning of the regular season, does Baltimore have more than 50% chance to win their division, to justify picking a -110 odd? No, I didn't consider it would be a valuable bet that moment. My mind can change, though.

About Philadelphia: Don't think I forgot them just because of McNabb. Actually, I haven't forgotten them at all. But with teams improving all around the league, I look hard and can't find Philadelphia as a team that improved, and even if they have (which I don't doubt), they didn't as much as other teams. But I will look them closely, thanks

tampa +2500... what the last 5 of 6 yrs or so the last place team from previous yr won the division the next yr. i think carolina won it when atl lost in ryans rookie yr in week 17. why not bet 100 and see if you can win 2500

If there is a completely irrelevant trend in sports world, it's the historical-conditional ones. Yeah, Indianapolis is 8-0 in the fifth game of the season playing home after allowing 20 or more points in the previous game when the wind is +10mph. I won't bet on them if the same conditions apply, unless I believe it to be a good bet, and by other reasons entirely. If Jacksonville, Denver and Seattle (not incredible but not crappy teams) were competing with them I would agree that +2500 is a valuable odd, but not in its Atlanta/Saints/Carolina division.

[madden]

TOP 10 IMPROVED TEAMS

Starting with the 49ers, I intend to create 10 posts which will deeply focus into relevant information regarding teams that I believe will be better (or much better) than last year. That's why you shouldn't expect seeing the Saints or the Colts in this series of posts (hard to improve- when you go to a Superbowl)

Well, well. Let me begin with the 49ers. They had a losing record for 7 years. Last season, with a more stable QB, and a good offense (better numbers in rushing, passing, TDs and much more than their opps.) when many expected the defense to do all the work for the team, they got an 8-8 record.



Who is crazy enough to think, with a weak Seattle and St.Louis in their division, and an Arizona far from the 2009 playoff-miracle team, that the 49ers won't have its best record in many years?


49ers first 2 weeks will be crucial. If they manage to lose to the Seahawks in Seattle (which is possible) and then LOSE again, playing home against the Saints (which is not only possible, but likely, if New Orleans begins this season like the last one - on fire), handicappers all around will start to worry about beating their OVER win line (and with reason).


Specially because, taking a closer look at the bottom part of the schedule, you'll see games AT pumped-up playoff contenders Arizona, Green Bay and San Diego, in weeks that will probably further determine their spot in the postseason. Expect tough games, specially in 12/5 and 12/16, when they will face blood-seeking home teams.


Adding to that, check the time spam. A tough game home against Seattle, and FOUR days later they travel to face San Diego. This doesn't look good

Something people should see with good eyes about this San Francisco team is that key people seem to want to play there. Even the players know this team has potential. Patrick Willis, no further comments needed, just signed, two weeks ago, a contract extension. Singletary looks happy, not going anywhere, more mature at his 52. Vernon Davis, Pro Bowl TE who tied Antonio Gates' NFL record for touchdowns in a season (13) last year, seems to be following the same path "That'd be good, when I eventually sign my extension. It's not something that's heavy on my mind. I'm not really thinking about it at the moment. I like to let things come to me.". He said that while attending 49ers's training camp. Crabtree is going to play even better this year. Pieces are falling in the right places, ladies and gentlemen.


49ers' first two draft picks this year were offensive linemen (2 good ones, by the way, strong, big and scary), showing their commitment to improving the odds of having even less interceptions thrown (14). Less pressure on the quarterback not only can reduce the number of sacks (40 last season), but will be an offensive boost to a strong Frank Gore (10 TDs/+1000yds performance)


Well, this is big enough already. I will probably post a "part 2" to this as soon as I gather more news about the 49ers. Next, 49ers' highlights from last season and my win line prediction for this year.


My early conclusions are:
49ers expected regular season record: 10-6.

[kroyrunner89]

If there is a completely irrelevant trend in sports world, it's the historical-conditional ones. Yeah, Indianapolis is 8-0 in the fifth game of the season playing home after allowing 20 or more points in the previous game when the wind is +10mph. I won't bet on them if the same conditions apply, unless I believe it to be a good bet, and by other reasons entirely.

Amen brother.

[Jrod124]

I hope man, 49ers have alot of talent and can certainly win that divison