NFL Week 15 early betting look: Packers worth a futures bet?

Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Defense is back in the NFL. The two most prolific offenses we have seen this season -- the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams -- were finally tested by legitimate defenses in Week 14. With the rule changes and sudden surge in scoring across the board in the NFL, the argument I keep hearing is that defense will no longer play a part in winning the Super Bowl. The team that can outscore its opponent and ultimately make fewer mistakes is the modern-day mold for a championship football team.


I've shared my sentiments about the impact that defense can have plenty throughout the season. As I watched these games this weekend, I secretly wanted to be proven right. While the Rams scoring just six points in Chicago (after averaging 35 points per game going in) isn't scientific proof, it definitely demonstrates a point. The Ravens had a seven-point lead late on the road in Kansas City in the fourth quarter before Patrick Mahomes converted multiple fourth downs on their final drive to eventually force overtime and squeeze out a victory for the Chiefs. Heck, even the Seahawks-Vikings game was 6-0 late in the fourth quarter.


Defense isn't the be-all end-all, but offense isn't either. There are still two sides to this game (shocking, I know). Don't disregard the teams that are able to do both at a high level.


Here are my Week 14 gambling takeaways and an early look at Week 15:
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story

There wasn't a game in Week 14 that had a severely misleading final score once I dove into the box scores. I've mentioned in past columns that I want to steer clear of forced narratives for the sake of content. I want to bring to everyone's attention the numbers that do offer a different perspective that brings value to our betting process each week -- but only when they actually exist.


It is worth noting that in the Monday night game, the Vikings actually outgained the Seahawks 276 yards to 274 and ran eight fewer plays than Seattle. It was a close game the entire way, but Minnesota found itself on the bad end of another game that went down to the wire. The playcalling combined with Kirk Cousins' inability to deliver on third-and-short over and over deserve the blame. After the season, metrics will likely point to Minnesota being a better team than its final record. It's interesting because the Vikings thought Cousins was the upgrade at quarterback over Case Keenum that they needed to make the next step. After $84 million guaranteed, I'm not sure anybody believes that anymore.
Early line moves: Week 15

Move I agree with: The Jaguars opened 6.5-point favorites in Week 15 against the Redskins but have since moved to -7. I'm not surprised, as my projection is Jaguars -9.6 with Josh Johnsonpresumably starting at quarterback for Washington.


Before this past Sunday, Johnson hadn't thrown a pass since 2011. The Redskins were down 40-0 to the Giants at home and put Johnson in in the fourth quarter. He played decently against the third- and fourth-string defensive units the Giants had thrown out there. The market moving to -7 probably would have been the immediate case even if Mark Sanchez was back under center again after the result this past Sunday. Despite their down season as a whole, the Jaguars still rank fourth in the NFL in defensive pass efficiency. If Johnson can keep this game close on the road, then so be it. Jaguars -7 or better is worthy of a bet.


Move I disagree with: There isn't a significant move this week that moved against my projections (at least not yet), but I am somewhat intrigued by the Giants moving toward -3 at home against the Titans. My number is Giants -1.1, and the move from -2 to -2.5 (-115) isn't anything that would get me backing the Titans, but if a +3 (-110) were to pop up later this week I would make a smaller wager on Tennessee. At the very least, I think the Titans +8.5 are a good option as a two-team, six-point teaser leg at -110 this week.
Slate Standout: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs opened 3-point favorites for their Thursday night extravaganza against the Chargers. I have been pro-Chargers for the last month -- and I'm sure that they would like to avenge their home loss to Kansas City in the season-opener -- but the move up to -3.5 or -4 I believe was warranted. My projection is Kansas City -3.9 without Melvin Gordon on hand for Los Angeles, so I won't likely be betting this game.


The big move on the Chargers in Week 14 against the Bengals is worth making a note of, however. Los Angeles was sitting -14 for the majority of the week, but a move to -16.5 and even -17 at a few shops came on Sunday. I disagreed with it and wound up betting Cincinnati at +17, but the market respect the Chargers received is still valuable information. The Bengals wound up losing the game by only five points -- and even had a shot at tying the game and potentially forcing overtime -- but this was only a sample size of one game. Even as a Bengals backer, I weigh a portion of my weekly number adjustments to the closing line (rather than the final score). This doesn't give us anything that is actually actionable to bet this week, but it is valuable information to asses during your betting process.


The most intriguing part of this specific matchup to me is that the strength of the Chargers' defense is against the pass. Mahomes should be able do his thing to a certain extent, but Kansas City's ability to attack Los Angeles' weakness against the run I think will be the difference in the game. It's too early to tell how impactful Kareem Hunt's absence will ultimately be, but the Chiefs gained only 3.5 yards per rushing attempt in Week 14 against the Ravens. I know that Baltimore has a fantastic defense, but the week prior Spencer Ware and Damien Williams gained only 4.4 YPA against the Raiders.


I'll be watching to see how effective the Kansas City rushing attack is from the get-go, and it may give us an opportunity to make an in-game wager accordingly.
Weekly futures outlook: Green Bay Packers 150-1 to win the NFC

There is a long shot in the NFC that has an opportunity to make the playoffs now after Minnesota's loss in Seattle and Philadelphia's loss in Dallas (plus the Rams on the road for Philly this week after Los Angeles got embarrassed scoring only six points in Chicago). The Panthers play two of their next three games against the Saints (and have lost five in a row), and the Redskins are ridden with injuries and likely out of the picture. The Packers will need to win their next three games, but at 8-7-1 they will definitely have a shot at getting a wild-card spot. The big game is this weekend in Chicago as 5.5-point underdogs. Weeks 16 and 17 Green Bay will be favorites over the Jets and Lions. Chicago is coming off of its big win over the Rams on Sunday night, so I don't hate the timing for Green Bay at all.


I believe 150-1 to win the NFC is a better option than 300-1 to win the Super Bowl (they would currently be underdogs to five potential AFC champions). It's important to understand going into this that it's a bet that is unlikely to win. I believe it occurs more often than the 0.67 percent chance the 150-1 price implies, however, and that is all we are looking for here with value bets in the futures market. We ultimately need them to sneak into the playoffs first, but I'm completely fine holding an Aaron Rodgers ticket at 150-1 when they do.