2010-2011 Super Bowl futures

[slacker00]

Fade the Ravens, too many people like them.

[slacker00]

Here's another update with the current Bodog odds:

Odds to win the 2011 Super Bowl XLV All wagers have action.
Arizona Cardinals
40/1

Atlanta Falcons
30/1

Baltimore Ravens
14/1

Buffalo Bills
100/1

Carolina Panthers
35/1

Chicago Bears
35/1

Cincinnati Bengals
30/1

Cleveland Browns
80/1

Dallas Cowboys
12/1

Denver Broncos
50/1

Detroit Lions
90/1

Green Bay Packers
14/1

Houston Texans
28/1

Indianapolis Colts
9/1

Jacksonville Jaguars
70/1

Kansas City Chiefs
90/1

Miami Dolphins
30/1

Minnesota Vikings
12/1

New England Patriots
12/1

New Orleans Saints
9/1

New York Giants
25/1

New York Jets
10/1

Oakland Raiders
80/1

Philadelphia Eagles
18/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
20/1

San Diego Chargers
11/1

San Francisco 49ers
30/1

Seattle Seahawks
40/1

St.Louis Rams
100/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
100/1

Tennessee Titans
28/1

Washington Redskins
25/1

The biggest up and down movement from the last update is the Jets going from 20/1 to 10/1 and the Steelers from 12/1 to 20/1.

[CaptainPrice]

Denver broncos ftw!!!!

[8ArIvd5]

The 49ers went from 40/1 to 30/1. That's closer to their potential. I can see them dropping to 20/1. They shouldn't have a tough time winning their division as they've added speed and power in Taylor Mays to a defense that's only lacking in the secondary. And with Nate Clements back I don't see a game like last year against Atl.

Their offense gets to learn a scheme this year instead of trying to remember a different set of plays. Alex Smith looks to have his best year so far. Crabtree will be able to connect on timing routes and Davis is already a huge threat. I see Frank Gore breaking loose on 4 or 5 40+yd rushes along with a 4+yd/carry. Special teams might be a small problem, but definately good value at 30/1.

[icancount2one]

Fade the Ravens, too many people like them.

Any reasoning behind that? The Ravens made the Pats look terrible in the playoffs and added a receiving threat which was what the biggest missing piece.

I for one am not totally sold on the 49ers, specifically on Alex Smith. I think the Texans are a better value at a similar price.

[slacker00]

Any reasoning behind that? The Ravens made the Pats look terrible in the playoffs and added a receiving threat which was what the biggest missing piece.

I for one am not totally sold on the 49ers, specifically on Alex Smith. I think the Texans are a better value at a similar price.

Sure the Ravens beat up on an injured Pats team, but then turned around and got whipped by a flawed Colts team.

The Ravens are a dangerous team, because any team that can win playoff games on the road deserves respect. I'm just not sure if the Ravens can turn that corner and can be the type of team that gets home playoff games. If you want to bet on the Ravens, you really are betting on them dominating their division and pulling away from teams like the Pats, Jets, Colts, Titans, Texans, Chargers, etc. I haven't seen enough to be convinced that they've taken that step just yet. A better performance against the Colts might have swayed me more, but Ray Ray & Co are only getting older and his clock is running out.

As for Alex Smith, he's finally got a team around him that can put him in a position to succeed. I'd like to compare Alex Smith to Aaron Rodgers, who has a stacked team around him and was very gradually put into an optimum position to succeed. Even Favre himself said it his last year in GB, that was the most talented team he'd been on. I see the same thing emerging right now for Alex Smith, in a division that is ripe for the taking.

[brooks85]

lol ravens +2000 with 7 votes, and the team that beat them TWICE last year with a depleted squad is +2800 and no one voted for them


you young padawans, much to learn you have

[str]

The Ravens seem to have taken many positive steps in the off season with their receivers. Running game is not a question, so can the aging defense hang in their.
If so, they are very live.

[icancount2one]

lol ravens +2000 with 7 votes, and the team that beat them TWICE last year with a depleted squad is +2800 and no one voted for them you young padawans, much to learn you have

You make a very good point. Is there any reason that people don't like these Bengals other than previous Cincy teams that were spectacularly crappy?

[brooks85]

not likely

Ever since carson went down in the playoffs in 05' injuries have haunted this team. A lot of people drop the injury excuse for their team because of one or two key guys, I laugh at that. The bengals put 16 guys on IR in 08' season, second to the ravens/saints, and 11 guys last year. The big difference is when you look at the guys the bengals put on IR they are starters and key players. No point going into the '08 season but to sum it up they had LBs playing on the DL. At one point they went 8 consectutive weeks with a completely different OL.

Last years list


TE Reggie Kelly – Ruptured Achilles tendon – August 3rd 2009
C Dan Santucci August 21st 2009
TE Ben Utecht – Concussions – September 2nd 2009
TE Matt Sherry September 3rd 2009 -
WR Antonio Chatman September 6th 2009
DL Antwan Odom – Achilles – October 19th 2009
WR Chris Henry – broken arm – November 9th 2009
S Roy L. Williams – forearm - November 14th 2009
TE Chase Coffman December 11th 2009
LB Rey Maualuga – ankle – December 30th 2009
DT Pat Sims – forearm – January 4th 2010


With the exception of matt sherry, even tho in hindsight it was huge because they lost 3 other TEs, every one of those players are essential to the team. When Chris henry went down with his injury, they literally had one legit receiver left - chad. Opposing defenses would double chad, make them run the ball but they would still got it done. The other options were caldwell or simpson, caldwell is too small to play outside and simpson has been a bust so far. They now are overloaded at the WR position and have gresham, coffman for huge targets down the middle. Carson says jones has been catching everything thrown his way and Gresham is a force.

Reggie kelly is one of the best blocking TEs in the nfl and Odom has been a sack machine but has gone down back to back seasons. Injuries are really the biggest problem for this team, especially going into the playoff stretch last year losing roy, maualuga and sims; and they still finished top 5 in defense.

[slacker00]

For the guys picking the Ravens, they've gotta be smoking crack to be overlooking the Bengals, Steelers and even the Browns.

[icancount2one]

not likely Ever since carson went down in the playoffs in 05' injuries have haunted this team. A lot of people drop the injury excuse for their team because of one or two key guys, I laugh at that. The bengals put 16 guys on IR in 08' season, second to the ravens/saints, and 11 guys last year. The big difference is when you look at the guys the bengals put on IR they are starters and key players. No point going into the '08 season but to sum it up they had LBs playing on the DL. At one point they went 8 consectutive weeks with a completely different OL. Last years list TE Reggie Kelly – Ruptured Achilles tendon – August 3rd 2009 C Dan Santucci August 21st 2009 TE Ben Utecht – Concussions – September 2nd 2009 TE Matt Sherry September 3rd 2009 - WR Antonio Chatman September 6th 2009 DL Antwan Odom – Achilles – October 19th 2009 WR Chris Henry – broken arm – November 9th 2009 S Roy L. Williams – forearm - November 14th 2009 TE Chase Coffman December 11th 2009 LB Rey Maualuga – ankle – December 30th 2009 DT Pat Sims – forearm – January 4th 2010 With the exception of matt sherry, even tho in hindsight it was huge because they lost 3 other TEs, every one of those players are essential to the team. When Chris henry went down with his injury, they literally had one legit receiver left - chad. Opposing defenses would double chad, make them run the ball but they would still got it done. The other options were caldwell or simpson, caldwell is too small to play outside and simpson has been a bust so far. They now are overloaded at the WR position and have gresham, coffman for huge targets down the middle. Carson says jones has been catching everything thrown his way and Gresham is a force. Reggie kelly is one of the best blocking TEs in the nfl and Odom has been a sack machine but has gone down back to back seasons. Injuries are really the biggest problem for this team, especially going into the playoff stretch last year losing roy, maualuga and sims; and they still finished top 5 in defense.

Wow, that explains a lot. I thought the Bengals were going to be really good in '08 and that explains why I was wrong. Kind of the opposite of why the Cowboys have over-achieved in recent years. Do you think, however, that when a team gets serious injuries consistently like the Bengals or Bills that it's something that you should expect to be repeated?

For the guys picking the Ravens, they've gotta be smoking crack to be overlooking the Bengals, Steelers and even the Browns.

Well, we've addressed why the Bengals might be seriously underrated, but the Steelers and Browns have a LOT of problems. Sounds like you're the one smoking the crack.

[frankzig]

these odds should be all different by now

[slacker00]

Well, we've addressed why the Bengals might be seriously underrated, but the Steelers and Browns have a LOT of problems. Sounds like you're the one smoking the crack.

The Steelers finished last year 3-0 and the Browns finished last year 4-0, both beating live teams in the playoff race in the final week. Recent history suggests that these are teams that are on the winning track.

If you're talking about the QB situations for both teams, Ben's suspension will probably be 4 games and Leftwich is a quality replacement which probably won't hurt the Steelers at all in that spot. Check his stats in relief of Ben. If you're worried about Delhomme replacing Quinn/Anderson, he's actually an upgrade, believe it or not. Again, check the stats to see for yourself.

If you think the Steelers/Browns have a LOT of problems, you'll have to bring better evidence than a bald assertion.

[MarlinsFan2212]

Cowboys and Jets

[brooks85]

Do you think, however, that when a team gets serious injuries consistently like the Bengals or Bills that it's something that you should expect to be repeated?

unfortunately yes. It seems like if this team could get one year without numerous injuries occurring they could at least win a playoff game. For example, looking at this years schedule, I would not be too happy as a ravens or bengals fan, with them playing each other week 17. In the '07 was the worse, week 1 bengals and ravens messed each other up, bengals lost 3 guys on the OL alone, ravens lost ray lewis and reed, together both teams lost more guys. Now this year they play each other last game of the season going into the playoffs, regardless of who wins, its likely both teams are going to beat up.

[icancount2one]

The Steelers finished last year 3-0 and the Browns finished last year 4-0, both beating live teams in the playoff race in the final week. Recent history suggests that these are teams that are on the winning track. If you're talking about the QB situations for both teams, Ben's suspension will probably be 4 games and Leftwich is a quality replacement which probably won't hurt the Steelers at all in that spot. Check his stats in relief of Ben. If you're worried about Delhomme replacing Quinn/Anderson, he's actually an upgrade, believe it or not. Again, check the stats to see for yourself. If you think the Steelers/Browns have a LOT of problems, you'll have to bring better evidence than a bald assertion.

Steelers' problems:

Offensive line aging, becoming more reliant on the pass game.

That may not be that big of a problem, but the absence of Santonio Holmes and Big Ben (in the first 4 games) multiplies it. Without Santonio Holmes (and a miracle from Big Ben) in the Green Bay game you wouldn't even have a late run to talk about. If you really think Leftwich and Randle El will fill those shoes I don't know what to tell you.

Losses to Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland. Missing the playoffs.

Browns' Problems:

Shaun Rodgers gun issue: not sure how/if that was resolved

The Browns beat precisely one team with a winning record: the Steelers

And while Jake Delhomme is an upgrade on paper, he's coming off a terrible season and going onto a team where he has one weapon, Devin Hester lookalike Josh Cribbs. Next stop: complete psychological breakdown.

The Browns have had one winning season in seven years.

Granted, anything can happen in an NFL season, but if we're going to sit around and predict the future, I don't see why the Steelers and Browns should be considered competition for anything but the AFC North cellar.

[cover1]

Write it down, Pitt will be right back after a dissapointing year. A healthy Troy makes that D that much better. Mendenhall will be a beast this year.

[GunShard]

I think there is a high chance of either the Colts, Saints and Vikings will win the 2011 Super Bowl.

The Packers and Chargers are second most likely to win it.

The Patriots and Steelers are known to win the Super Bowl, but they have many flaws for them this season.

[slacker00]

Write it down, Pitt will be right back after a dissapointing year. A healthy Troy makes that D that much better. Mendenhall will be a beast this year.

I totally agree. I don't know how people can underestimate Pittsburgh, which won it's rings without that much QB output. Besides, Ben will be there when it counts, it's probably better to let him sit for the first 1/4 of the season to keep his reckless butt healthy. The key is, and always was, smashmouth D and run game. With the line now at 20:1, there's value there that's tough to ignore.

The Patriots and Steelers are known to win the Super Bowl, but they have many flaws for them this season.

What flaws do the Pats have? I don't buy the Welker issue, they've got enough depth at WR to compensate. Brady should be better, still recovering from his ACL through last season. The young defense should be closer to peaking under the dungeon master's guidance. This might be a rare chance for a team to catch magic with an emerging defense while the aging offense still has some firepower. Maybe the aging Moss will be an inspirational leader as he is still seeking his first Super Bowl ring, despite being on some of NFL history's greatest offenses (1998 Vikings, 2007 Pats).

[GunShard]

Yea, Patriot's young defense was the factor. They still got a good winning season record and thier offense dominated the Colts until Bellicheck's stupidity kicked in.

[GunShard]

I don't know why so many on the Ravens.

They have a lack of offense. Flacco isn't very effective long range. I'm not sold on their new wide receiver. Their defense is aging. And isn't their field goal kicker faulty? Kicker cost the Ravens a win against the Vikings.

The Packers and Colts are very similar, and the Ravens lost to them all 3 times last season.
The Ravens and Cowboys have a lack of offense last season, in my opinion.

[pinnacle212]

I really like the pack this year. They were solid vs the run. There only problem was there secondary. They were new to the 3 4 scheme and they got toasted in the air. Mostly vs Brett Favre. I think they beat the Vikes this Year and take the division Revenge factor. Gonna wait until favre announce and see the numbers move divisionally. Like them for the Super Bowl.

[slacker00]

I really like the pack this year. They were solid vs the run. There only problem was there secondary. They were new to the 3 4 scheme and they got toasted in the air. Mostly vs Brett Favre. I think they beat the Vikes this Year and take the division Revenge factor. Gonna wait until favre announce and see the numbers move divisionally. Like them for the Super Bowl.

Secondary will be a growing problem for the Packers with their aging corners. Woodson & Harris have demonstrated being injury prone over the years, especially recently. When it comes playoff time, it shouldn't suprise anyone if someone hangs 50 points on them again.

[pinnacle212]

Secondary will be a growing problem for the Packers with their aging corners. Woodson & Harris have demonstrated being injury prone over the years, especially recently. When it comes playoff time, it shouldn't suprise anyone if someone hangs 50 points on them again.

I would have like to see them move up in draft to pick a top notch safety/cb. Eric Berry Taylor Mays or Earl Thomas. There were a lot of good corners out there in free agency. I guess the Jets got them all.

They did get Morgan Burnett out of GTech. I will be tracking him. You made good points.

[roster1]

For GMen fans out there, especially in light of the whole L.T. fiasco, here's what SBR Forum Oddsmakers now have the Giants at for this coming season: 25 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, the over/under for regular season wins is 8.5, 5 to 2 to win the division and 11 to 2 to win the conference.

As for the other New York team? The Jets are 12 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 7 to 5 to win the division and 7 to 1 to win the conference. Their over/under for regular season wins is 9.5 wins.

[crazymilkman]

The Colts certainly have the roster to compete next year

[lTheShadowl]

as much as I hate to say it, the Ravens could pull it out this year...

[EmpireMaker]

I like the Vikes at 14-1 !!!

[JACK MATZ]

Jets...jets...jets.

[SportNut]

Me like Jets...And Ravens too..

[icancount2one]

I totally agree. I don't know how people can underestimate Pittsburgh, which won it's rings without that much QB output. Besides, Ben will be there when it counts, it's probably better to let him sit for the first 1/4 of the season to keep his reckless butt healthy. The key is, and always was, smashmouth D and run game. With the line now at 20:1, there's value there that's tough to ignore.



What flaws do the Pats have? I don't buy the Welker issue, they've got enough depth at WR to compensate. Brady should be better, still recovering from his ACL through last season. The young defense should be closer to peaking under the dungeon master's guidance. This might be a rare chance for a team to catch magic with an emerging defense while the aging offense still has some firepower. Maybe the aging Moss will be an inspirational leader as he is still seeking his first Super Bowl ring, despite being on some of NFL history's greatest offenses (1998 Vikings, 2007 Pats).

Secondary will be a growing problem for the Packers with their aging corners. Woodson & Harris have demonstrated being injury prone over the years, especially recently. When it comes playoff time, it shouldn't suprise anyone if someone hangs 50 points on them again.

Dude, you're blowing my mind.

You think the Pats and Steelers will be back to old form, but say the PACKERS are the ones with the defense that's too old and injury prone? Either you're confusing handicapping with rooting for teams you like, or you're totally living in the past.

I don't know if you've paid attention over the last few years in the playoffs, but the Arizona Cardinals are nigh unstoppable at home when they close the dome. Green Bay also made a stategic error in playing all out in the first of back-to-back games with AZ, allowing the players and coaches to really dissect the defense the second time around.

[slacker00]

Dude, you're blowing my mind.

You think the Pats and Steelers will be back to old form, but say the PACKERS are the ones with the defense that's too old and injury prone? Either you're confusing handicapping with rooting for teams you like, or you're totally living in the past.

I don't know if you've paid attention over the last few years in the playoffs, but the Arizona Cardinals are nigh unstoppable at home when they close the dome. Green Bay also made a stategic error in playing all out in the first of back-to-back games with AZ, allowing the players and coaches to really dissect the defense the second time around.

Dude, my point was that Harris wasn't even on the field for that game and Woodson was nursing an injury. Harris will be 36 this season and Woodson will be 34. That's getting old for anyone in the NFL. History has proven that these two have battled late season injuries in recent years. Even worse, they don't have any depth behind these guys, their ace nickle back Tramond Williams is decent but he was undrafted and will never be all pro calibre.

As for AZ being 'unstoppable' at home, you could say that about any offensive oriented playoff team. Do you think the Saints are second to anyone, offensively, at home? How about Minny? Who do you think the Packers will be meeting if they make the playoffs? There are some powerful offenses that will shred the Packers if they enter a playoff game like they did last year. Even the Falcons or Cowboys could hang 50 on them in that case.

[icancount2one]

Dude, my point was that Harris wasn't even on the field for that game and Woodson was nursing an injury. Harris will be 36 this season and Woodson will be 34. That's getting old for anyone in the NFL. History has proven that these two have battled late season injuries in recent years. Even worse, they don't have any depth behind these guys, their ace nickle back Tramond Williams is decent but he was undrafted and will never be all pro calibre.

As for AZ being 'unstoppable' at home, you could say that about any offensive oriented playoff team. Do you think the Saints are second to anyone, offensively, at home? How about Minny? Who do you think the Packers will be meeting if they make the playoffs? There are some powerful offenses that will shred the Packers if they enter a playoff game like they did last year. Even the Falcons or Cowboys could hang 50 on them in that case.

Al Harris is already out with an injury. I just don't think he's as much of an asset as you do. He's a personal foul machine, always has been.

The Cardinals have had a ridiculous difference between their passing offense at home and on the road. Opposing defenses frequently complain about the lighting scheme at U of P stadium. In '08 they sandbagged the Eagles by closing the dome at the last minute on a perfect day. Rodgers almost outgunned Warner anyway.

If you want to talk about teams that don't have answers to replace their aging players, the teams at the head of that discussion should be Pit and NE, who you seem to think will find magic keys. New England looked anemic without Welker, and who knows how well he'll come back from his injury?

[Daveyboy]

Whys there so much love for Baltimore?!?!???