NFL Underground Leans - Week 2

[Dexter]

from post #75 in the week 1 thread:

Sunday 9/20-

(5x) 49ers (pk) (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min.

(2x) under 49ers 40.5 - i think i will just continue to ride sf and the under for a while. they are all about defense and pounding the ball in 2009.

(2x) under redskins 37 - these are too anemic offenses who will look to feature portis/sjax on the ground all day in washington.

[Dexter]

(2x) jags -3 (A2 autobet )fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x.

(3x) over packers 42 - i fully expect the packers to be one of the more high powered offenses this season, and the bengals defense is just what the doctor ordered after a tough sunday night tilt with the bears. the bengals have plenty of weapons to try and keep up with the packers, and i can see a lot of late points by cincy trying to sneak in the back door. i wont take gb because perhaps they have a letdown off a prime time come back win vs the rival bears. i'll simply play the high in what appears to be a very appealing total.

(2x) patriots -6 - ne is 5-0 su/ats the last 5 visits in ne. i just may bet on bellichek any week following a non-cover.

(5x) chargers -5 (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min.

[GGPLAYER]

Never been good at capping NFL and have some questions. I'm seeing some jumps in the lines and I'm wondering if that is what you expected to see in these games? NE has come down to -3 with more money being put down on them. SD has also come down to -3 with about 75% of the money on Balt. Now that I think about it that one makes sense. But SF also appears to have some RLM. It's gone from +1 to -1.5 SF with over 60% on Sea.

I tailed all your bets last week and I intend to do the same this week but at the same time I hope to learn some things along the way. Thanks

[cgars1]

Capping the NFL early in the year can be tough...by definition Handicapping is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which the advantage is calculated. Handicapping also refers to the various methods by which spectators can predict and quantify the results of a sporting match,

To do this we need a history or previous results. In the NFL the preseason really doesn't help you and the same with the previous year. There are some trends I do look at from previous years but what we really need is 2-3 weeks to go by to really accumalate the data required...at least that my findings.

Early on I track where lines move in weird ways, where the sharp money coming in and team matchups including injurys.

After the first 3 weeks in the NFL things start taking shape or just find someone solid like Dex and tail'em

[handimann]

What do you think about NYG +3 at Dallas?

[Dexter]

(2x) over eagles 46

[Dexter]

Never been good at capping NFL and have some questions. I'm seeing some jumps in the lines and I'm wondering if that is what you expected to see in these games? NE has come down to -3 with more money being put down on them. SD has also come down to -3 with about 75% of the money on Balt. Now that I think about it that one makes sense. But SF also appears to have some RLM. It's gone from +1 to -1.5 SF with over 60% on Sea.

I tailed all your bets last week and I intend to do the same this week but at the same time I hope to learn some things along the way. Thanks

i def did not see the pats line dropping down to 3. i realize the jets are the *sexy* team right now with ryan's def dismantling a high octane offense like the texans.

that is some serious RLM, and i wish i had waited for a line of ne -3. it is what it is - i'm booked at -6.5 and wont be putting any more money on the game.

right, the balt movement is correct.

and SF does have RLM.

i more look at RLM etc when im on the fence about a game - i enjoy straight capping games.

handimann - i dont really have a lean yet on the sunday night game. if i do well sunday, i'll prob dig deeper to come up with a 2x play. thats a case where i will watch movement etc...

[Danskeren]

On the opposite side of all your side-games .
I don't hope you get a sweep this week .

Good luck anyway!

[waco66]

(3x) over packers 42[/B] - i fully expect the packers to be one of the more high powered offenses this season, and the bengals defense is just what the doctor ordered after a tough sunday night tilt with the bears. the bengals have plenty of weapons to try and keep up with the packers, and i can see a lot of late points by cincy trying to sneak in the back door. i wont take gb because perhaps they have a letdown off a prime time come back win vs the rival bears. i'll simply play the high in what appears to be a very appealing total.

solid play here. packers offense/defense can put up 40 pts against that joke of a team in cinci

[cweh]

Dumbs up on all your bets except SF. Advantage to Seattle +1.5 and under 40. SF does not have the QB to put up points and seattle will play Molloy in the box for Gore. I see this as 20 17 seattle or 17 13 seattle.


I'm really on the fence on Oakland vs. chiefs. I kind of like Oak +3 - just dont know if its a good bet.

[Pick'nParlays]

Dumbs up on all your bets except SF. Advantage to Seattle +1.5 and under 40. SF does not have the QB to put up points and seattle will play Molloy in the box for Gore. I see this as 20 17 seattle or 17 13 seattle. I'm really on the fence on Oakland vs. chiefs. I kind of like Oak +3 - just dont know if its a good bet.

i disagree, sf does have enough offense.

[lakerboy]

the chiefs are the lock of the week

[yeahwhat]

hey dexter how are ya? just reading this thread and i noticed in your first post that you referred to your week 1 post which has " (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min". have you got a link to the WEEK 1 thread so i can check it out?

cheers

[Killer Chihuahua]

Hey Dex,

Love the SF play.... the Seahawks running game is a problem. I know Julius Jones had 117 rushing yards on 19 carries Sunday, but that was against the Rams. I can't see Seattle establishing Jones against a fierce 49ers ground defense that limited the two Arizona backs to 2.9 yards per attempt.
Without a ground game going, Hasselbeck may have to do things on his own here, which is a scary proposition. San Francisco's defense suffocated Kurt Warner on Sunday, sacking him three times, and forcing him into two picks and a fumble. I don't trust the 49ers' secondary, but I like their pass rushers going against Sean Locklear and Ray Willis. If Hasselbeck is constantly in obvious passing downs, San Francisco will collect a number of sacks.
Mike Singletary's game plan is simple - he's going to run the ball as much as possible, and then he's going to run the ball some more. Frank Gore mustered less than 1.5 yards per carry Sunday, but Singletary stuck with his strategy. The Seahawks just surrendered 4.2 yards per rush to Steven Jackson and his abomination of an offensive line, so Gore should be able to cross the 1.5 YPC barrier. Assuming that happens, Shaun Hill will be able to orchestrate some play-action attempts against a weak secondary on the few occasions that Singletary calls for a pass play.
The 49ers are getting no love. Both Seattle and San Francisco are 1-0, and the latter has the much more impressive victory. Yet, the host is just -1.5 and the public is backing the visitor.

Also on the Jags with you as well. Arizona as a team was terrible in 08 in early east coast games going 0-4. If you have watched any of the Cards games this year, you should also have noticed that Warner is not right. At 38 and under going off season hip surgery, I will be suprised if he can regain his form from last year.

Not quite sure I agree on the Green Bay / Cincy over in this game. I keep hearing just how bad this Cincy team is, but what people do not realize is they had the 12th ranked defense last year. The bears also exposed the greenbay o-line, especially r-tackle Barbre. The Bengels recorded 3 sacks against a great denver line, I think they get more than a few against GB. On the flip side, the Greenbay 3-4 defense looked pretty good against Chicago. Although Cincy plays alot of games against division 3/4 teams, I think they too will have a hard time scoring. GB 23 Cincy 17

SD/Balti game Im on the other spectrum then you. The Ravens will rely on their ground attack in this game. On Monday night, the Chargers were once again having major difficulty stopping the run. Even worse for them is the fact that Jamal Williams is banged up. Williams may play - Norv Turner said he'll be a game-time decision - but even if he's in there, Baltimore's powerful offensive line will control the trenches and open up huge holes for Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.
With Baltimore gaining more than five yards per carry, the Chargers will have to commit more defenders to the run, as they did Monday night. This will allow Joe Flacco to beat them with his accurate deep throws. JaMarcus Russell couldn't take advantage of this consistently, but Flacco will be able to.

The Chargers' offensive line is a mess. The front line, particularly the right side, couldn't pass protect or run block against the Raiders. Trying to keep the Baltimore defenders will be much more of a challenge, especially if center Nick Hardwick is out (also a game-time decision).

LaDainian Tomlinson is the third of a few Chargers who is questionable to play. If Tomlinson doesn't suit up, it's not a big deal because the Ravens will have to worry about Darren Sproles. Chris Johnson (playoffs) and Leon Washington (preseason) gave Baltimore fits, so a quicker back could have more success against this defense.
Ultimately, I don't trust San Diego's offensive line to protect Philip Rivers. The Raiders sacked Rivers three times and pressured him often. The Ravens should be able to do the same.
I love Baltimore; I think they're the better team, and I'm really liking the fact that Cam Cameron used to be Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates' offensive coordinator. Cameron coached San Diego from 2002 to 2006. As he did against his other former team (Miami), Cameron will come up with a great game plan to beat the Chargers.

[ragiche]

Love the chargers and 49ers picks.

[Dexter]

hey dexter how are ya? just reading this thread and i noticed in your first post that you referred to your week 1 post which has " (A3 autobet) play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x min". have you got a link to the WEEK 1 thread so i can check it out?

cheers

its back a few pages. shouldnt be hard to find.

are you just looking for a run down of my autobets? if so....

(A1)fade any team who beats the steelers the next week at a minimum of 3x. (A1)

(A2)fade any team that plays on the east coast at 1pm when their is a 3 hour time difference from their home state for a minimum of 2x. (A2)

(A3)play any home team off a road win scoring 10-29 pts vs an opponent who scored 28-42 in their last game for 5x (A3)

(A4)play any home dog getting 7-13 points off a game in which they scored 6-27 points, and are facing a team that is coming off a home win as a favorite for 2x min (A4)

[Dexter]

great post KC

[Dexter]

On the opposite side of all your side-games .
I don't hope you get a sweep this week .

Good luck anyway!

oh man - hopefully you get in at great prices and we middle the books!

[Dexter]

i'm sticking with what i have, and thats it for the day games. good luck all.

[taxman]

Good luck Dexter...just can't take Jville here...they were 1-7 as a home favorite last year and they burned me a couple of times laying #s.

[peterpan19]

PHI early on as my strong play today...

GL

[africanroller]

I am betting 1 game and 1 game only today. NE -3.5 +105 I guess no one realized Brady was nervous on his knee in the first half last week but once he got comfortable he was outstanding. This is a big time homer bet but I am never betting against NE with + money. If I lose so be it but I do not see it.

[ragiche]

NFL: My first bets of the season.

Patriots -3.5 (-110) (MEDIUM)

Cowboys -3 (+105) (MEDIUM)

Buccaneers +4 (-110) ( MEDIUM)

CIN/GB Over 41.5 -110 (MEDIUM)

MIN/DET Over 45 -110 (MEDIUM)

GL guys hope these plays helps.

[shoebox]

just got in....
on

vikings, GB, cards, and tailing dex on SF

gl today!

[peterpan19]

GL shoe

looks like my Cards brought their A game to the East coast today... looking fantastic... but why the hel did I bet against them ?... but they win... so its a win win situation either way...

and whats going on in Detroit today ?

2nd slate of games:
SF (yeah baby)

staying away from the Pit and SD game... even if I like Pit and SD today...

GL guys

[shoebox]

Vikings are f'in sleeping...wake up!

[peterpan19]

all big favs not looking good right now.... even Ten...what happended there... wtf ???... but remember what Bal did last week ... so still some time left...

[peterpan19]

and what happened to TEn secondary ??

[peterpan19]

tied game in TEN... so nothing lost... HOU just cant play that good or TEN that bad in the 2H... plus Jeff will be mad... really mad... so lay the wood in the 2H guys... same goes for GB...

GL

[chaseman]

Houston is not to be slept on.

[ragiche]

NFL: My first bets of the season.

Patriots -3.5 (-110) (MEDIUM)

Cowboys -3 (+105) (MEDIUM) PENDING.................

Buccaneers +4 (-110) ( MEDIUM) PENDING..............

CIN/GB Over 41.5 -110 (MEDIUM)

MIN/DET Over 45 -110 (MEDIUM)

GL guys hope these plays helps.

Not a good start for my 1st nfl bet of the season.

[Dexter]

cmon sd!!

[Dexter]

(2x) over cowboys 44.5

[Dexter]

the bears beat the world champ steelers. you know whats up in week 3:

seahawks

[Dexter]

as good as the jets have looked so far, i think tenn is the play next week having had 2 close losses. couple that with a letdown for the jets off a HUGE win vs ne, and i'll take the projected 5 points next week. likely the projected under of 34 as well.