NFL Underground Leans - Week 2

[GGPLAYER]

cmon sd!!

That sucked. I would have rather seen SD run on 3rd down and throw on 4th.

[BTTNext]

That was just pitiful. Man I don't get it... SD looked so sweet in the off-season. They really gotta get their shit together.

[BTTNext]

BTW Dexter, thanks for a pretty sweet day, and GL tonight!

[Dexter]

That was just pitiful. Man I don't get it... SD looked so sweet in the off-season. They really gotta get their shit together.

they start out slow every year.

BTW Dexter, thanks for a pretty sweet day, and GL tonight!

thx. this over looks good at the half.

looking into tomorrows night game. kinda undecided, so will be a 2x max play.

[cgars1]

Dex looks like LDK was a no show!!! damn I would be kicking his ass anyway!!!

[Dexter]

Dex looks like LDK was a no show!!! damn I would be kicking his ass anyway!!!

i pm'd him. he told me he still wanted to be in. what are your units at?

over in tonights game is a winner winner chicken dinner.

see everyone tomorrow.

[azn624]

winning week, I was with you on most of the picks other then SD

[Mendozaaaa]

What are people liking for Monday night? I'm on under 42 for 1 unit.

[peterpan19]

well everybody is on the under it seems...so the Over might bw worse a shot here...

GL

[Killer Chihuahua]

Im seeing the public on the over....and as the day goes on, the public will pound the over some more! The public is always in love with the over on Monday Night. The under is the play. It opened at 44 and is now sitting at 42.
The dolphins had 4 turnovers last week which put their defense in terrible position. Even with the turnovers, Atlanta only scored 19 points in Atlanta. They also held Turner to 65 yards rushing, meaning the colts small line will not be able to open up many holes. The Miami secondary is a bit suspect at this point, allowing Mat Ryan to pass for 229 yards and 2 TD's but that is not all that bad considering Atlanta threw for 220 yrds and 3 TD's on a similar Carolina Defense on Sunday. The colts offense will have to throw screens and short crossing routes to keep the ball moving as well as the clock. Lets also not forget the injury to A. Gonzales and the signing of H. Basket as he might not yet be familar with Payton and the new play book.
As for Miami's offense, I don't understand what the Dolphins are trying to do. They drafted Pat White in the second round to run the Wildcat, yet they only used that formation a few times last week. Meanwhile, Miami should have been able to exploit Atlanta's weak ground defense. Instead, they handed the ball off to Ronnie Brown only 10 times. Brown took those 10 carries and gain 43 yards, so it's not like he struggled or anything. It just seems like the Dolphins are out-smarting themselves.
The Colts are once again awful versus the rush, but who's to say that Tony Sparano gives Brown more than 10 carries. I say they get back to basics and run, run, run, and then mix in the wildcat and Pat White instead of the other way around. In short this will be a fast game with lots of running by the dolphins and long sustained drives by both teams that will end up in field goals.

[ASH0479]

Im seeing the public on the over....and as the day goes on, the public will pound the over some more! The public is always in love with the over on Monday Night. The under is the play. It opened at 44 and is now sitting at 42.
The dolphins had 4 turnovers last week which put their defense in terrible position. Even with the turnovers, Atlanta only scored 19 points in Atlanta. They also held Turner to 65 yards rushing, meaning the colts small line will not be able to open up many holes. The Miami secondary is a bit suspect at this point, allowing Mat Ryan to pass for 229 yards and 2 TD's but that is not all that bad considering Atlanta threw for 220 yrds and 3 TD's on a similar Carolina Defense on Sunday. The colts offense will have to throw screens and short crossing routes to keep the ball moving as well as the clock. Lets also not forget the injury to A. Gonzales and the signing of H. Basket as he might not yet be familar with Payton and the new play book.
As for Miami's offense, I don't understand what the Dolphins are trying to do. They drafted Pat White in the second round to run the Wildcat, yet they only used that formation a few times last week. Meanwhile, Miami should have been able to exploit Atlanta's weak ground defense. Instead, they handed the ball off to Ronnie Brown only 10 times. Brown took those 10 carries and gain 43 yards, so it's not like he struggled or anything. It just seems like the Dolphins are out-smarting themselves.
The Colts are once again awful versus the rush, but who's to say that Tony Sparano gives Brown more than 10 carries. I say they get back to basics and run, run, run, and then mix in the wildcat and Pat White instead of the other way around. In short this will be a fast game with lots of running by the dolphins and long sustained drives by both teams that will end up in field goals.

Both Defenses are good, Colts shutdown the Jaguars and Jone-Drew, and Miami held Atl in check...under is a decent call here

[Dexter]

i believe under is the right call here as KC's analysis is spot on - though monday night games historically go over more then under. i see the game moving slow, but for some reason 24-20, 24-21 etc sticks in my head.

need to watch late movement. if this line ever dipped below the key number to 2.5, i would be all over the dolphins heavy. that line has been stuck at 3 with 75% of the public on manning.

[Dexter]

(2x) over colts 41

[Danskeren]

Dolphins +2.5 +120 at Matchbook!
If the other books follow, we got a sweet movement!

Edit: Went to +3 again after about half a min.

[Dexter]

bang!!! just like that we have 7

[pcjayd]

Whats good Big Dex lets do it!!! over 41

[Dexter]

week 3 thread is up - a lot of plays came up for me.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/233770-nfl-underground-plays-week-3-a.html#post2272477

[pcjayd]

Great Hit once again!!! on to the tunnel week 3!!!!