Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) are improving week after week, with a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, which makes this offense quite strong and difficult to stop. The Cards D is very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, but it is also true that they are having a lot of troubles to stop the opponents' passing game. I expect them to repeat the same strategy employed in their last game by doing "blitzes" against the opponent's QB, but they will face a strong OL, which should give enough time to Eli Manning to do his Passing Game.

New York Giants (5-1) after the humillianting defeat against the Saints in New Orleans Saints will surely return to the wins. They have a very strong offense, starting with the franchise QB Eli Manning and with excellent young wide receivers, besides a good OL capable of giving the time needed for their QB to make his calls. The Giants are also playing very well in their Defense, until they faced a powerful offense and were completely thrashed, leaving too much room for the opponent's WRs, which translated in too many points conceded in their last game.

This will be a great game to watch, with good WRs and QBs always ready to score points and with "soft" defenses, which will make this match interesting, close and with a lot of points scored, something around 30-27.


Pick: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Yesterday we started 5-0 with the 01:00 PM EST games and ended the day with an 8-4.


For the Week 7 Monday Nighf Football, I'm going with road favorite previously posted:

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) comes from a humiliating defeating in Oakland where they were a simply "no show" and I don't believe that they will do such a lousy game again this season. they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points, but they had a soft schedule so far this season. I think that the Eagles will use RB Brian Westbrook more often on this game, for me that was the biggest problem on their last game against the Raiders, he was rarely used on the offense on that game, that and some lack of drive and motivation.

Washington Redskins (2-4) continue to have internal problems inside the organization which is never a good thing for a NFL team. The Redskins QB Jason Campbell is under a lot of pressure which is not a good thing for the team and that is reflecting on the passing game. Their wins were against teams (Rams & Bucs) that don't scare anyone on this league. The Washington defense against high scoring teams has been very bad against the opponent's rushing game, the same goes against the opposition's passing game.

I trully don't believe Philadelphia losing this game and with all those problems affecting the Redskins, I believe that the Eagles will win this game big time, scoring a lot of points.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Weird, I'm 25-18 (58,14%) on chalk...

[shantystar]

tommy you are a good tipster anyway.

[AceofSP2107]

how about -7.5 still take

[TommyGold]

Packers will definitely cover spread

They scored 31 points, which was somewhat expected.

[TommyGold]

tommy you are a good tipster anyway.

You're very kind but I don't think that yet.

[TommyGold]

Hows the weather in London?

I didn't travelled to see the game.

how about -7.5 still take

I would play this one up to -9.5 but the short you can get, the better.

Don't forget that this is a MNF and we never know how motivated the Eagles will be after the Oakland's debacle.

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 7 results recap:

45 - San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (7-37: WIN)
46 - Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (6-42: WIN)
47 - Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-31: WIN)
48 - Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (27-17: WIN)
49 - New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (7-35: WIN)
50 - New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-38: LOSS)
51 - Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek (9-20: LOSS)
52 - Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (45-10: WIN)
53 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-46: WIN)
54 - New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (34-46: WIN)
55 - Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek (37-21: LOSS)
56 - Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (17-24: LOSS)
57 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek (17-27: WIN)

SIDES: 8-3; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 7: +4,47 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 31-26 (+2,38 units won/57 units risked);
SIDES: 29-21 (+5,52 unit won/50 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3,14 units lost/7 units risked).

I'm winning 59,09% on chalk (favorites) and i'm winning 58% on pointspreads... Let's see if I can end the season with a decent winning percentage (55% at least) on all my NFL 2009 regular season picks...

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 8, I've only 7 pointspreads to risk:

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes; HOU -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[TommyGold]

ACHTUNG/ ATENTION: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: NYG +1 -110 (1.91) The Greek is incorrect. My mistake:


This is the correct line:
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica



Folks, I'm aware that most of the decent offshores sportsbooks have now NYG -1 -110 (1.91), but since Bet Jamaica has a nice $5K USD pointspread wager/stakes limit for the NFL, I'm gonna take it, if it is not a problem to all of you.

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes


--

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

It seems that the Dallas Cowboys offensive unit is starting to fall in place, their running game has been better week after week and QB Tony Romo appears to have found his favorite target, WR Miles Austin, which on the last 2 games made 16 catches for 421 yards, so surely the Seahawks D will keep an eye on Austin and because of this, I believe that WR Jason Witten might have a great game this week too. With the Cowboys O playing as expected again, knowing that the Seahawks defense is having huge troubles to stop the both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, I see big difficulties for them to stop the Dallas offense, aggravated by the absence of MLB Lofa Tatupu which will further complicate matters.

Dallas are quite favorite for this game in my oppinion, despite the Cowboys defense not being anything special, this Seahawks offense has done nothing too, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been forced to throw short and that has complicated a lot their points prospects. With the Cowboys playing at home and if they keep playing like they have done lately, they can win this game with a lot of points, so I believe in a Dallas win by 2 or more touchdowns.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

--

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

QB Donovan McNabb is having a lot of problems against teams that do a lot of blitzes and we saw it already against the Giants this season, so he will surely be targeted again with a lot of the Giants' blitzes, one of the good things of this New York team. The Giants despite their last 2 games where the defense has not been well, that doesn't mean that they can't take good care of the Eagles offense. The Eagles' rushing game will be only rookie RB LeSean McCoy, because RB Brian Westbrook is injured and probably will not play this game, which hurts a lot the ground offense prospects of Philadelphia and therefore the Giants defense will focus more on the opponent's passing game.

The Eagles defense are having some difficulties even against some minor offenses, so this afternoon they will have a lot of problems to stop this Giants O, which besides QB Eli Manning, has good options on the WR position, with Steve Smith and Mario Manningham, and they will surely be able to deliver some damage on the ground offense thanks to 2 excellent rushers, RB Brandon Jacobs and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, 2 very explosive rushers that can cause a lot of troubles to the Eagles D.

For me the Giants have the edge both on the defense and on the offense, thanks to RB Brian Westbrook injury, which leaves the Eagles with less offensive options, Eli Manning has a nice record on the road against Philadelphia and it is one of his favorite places to play, which is a normal thing since he has always won there and I believe the Giants will have a good game this afternoon an I expect them to win.

Pick: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

This will be again a very special game for QB Brett Favre and I think we will come out winning again. On their first encounter, the Packers were extremely focused in stopping the Vikes rushing game, so Brett Favre did 24/31 on passing, therefore Green Bay will face a major dilemma today, if they focus too much on RB Adrian Peterson, Favre solves the game, if they take too much attention to the Purps' passing game, Adrian Peterson solves the game, meaning that this Vikings O is very complete and has good weapons for every kind of offensive game.

The Vikings D is also very good, but we must not forget that QB Aaron Rodgers did an excellent game against this same defense, specially in the last quarter, but it wasn't enough to get the Packers a win. Green Bay will surely use more often their passing game, because their ground offense has no solutions against the Minny run defense.

This game will be played in a familiar territory for Favre and that will be surely another motivation factor for him, since arriving to the Vikings he has become a more calm quarterback, making the right calls and never risking random throws, because he knows that RB Adrian Peterson is at his disposal.

For me, Minnesota could have won against Pittsburgh on the road, they have shown a lot of quality during these 7 weeks and they have a better defense than the Packers, they have a better offense and they have the best rusher of the NFL, so I believe that the Vikings will win this game SU.


Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are playing much better lately, specially on their defense against the opponents' passing game, and now they really look like that team that went to the Super Bowl last season. Arizona is using on the last weeks RB Tim Hightower as a short pass option for QB Kurt Warner and that is a major complication for the opponents' defenses, which already have to worry about Warner's deep throws to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, 2 excellent wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers on the offense has nothing to offer besides their rushing game with RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart and that is a big problem for the Panthers, because right now, the Cardinals are the NFL's best team stopping the opponent's rushing game. Knowing how bad this Carolina team is on the passing game, their QB Jake Delhomme is one the worst in the league according to the season's rankings, same goes to his wide receivers, we will not see much of this Carolina offense today.

With the Cardinals playing at home and doing much better now, their offense will prevail over the Panthers D and this Carolina offense doesn't have options to complicate matters for the Cardinals defense, so I expect a home win by 2 or more touchdowns.


Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans

Tennesse QB Vince Young will start today thanks to the pressure of the Titans' CEO and to be honest, I don't think this will be a good ideia. When you play against the Jaguars, you should always press their secondary, because they only have 5 sacks this season and that is by far their biggest defensive problem. I'm aware that they had two weeks to adjust their offense to the new quarterback, but I doubt that it will be enough time to create the needed automatisms in the Titans' offense.

It is true that both teams prefer to play the Rushing Game, RB Chris Johnson for the Titans, a great rusher, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jags, who did 7 touchdowns on his last 4 games, which makes both teams even on this chapter. However, the Jacksonville defense is not that bad in stopping the opponent's rushing game.

The great upset for the Titans defense is on their secondary, a real mess, with a lot of injuries on that unit, and that has been exploited by the opponents' quarterbacks. QB David Garrard can be very confortable inside the pocket, because the Titans' front four can't deliver any pressure against the opposition's quarterback, and that will give David Garrard enough time for him to lead is team forward.

Garrard has been quite well this season, calling the right plays and Maurice Jones-Drew has been awesome lately, so if we have Garrard on a good day, surely the Jaguarscan win this game SU.


Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

If the Falcons defense keeps playing like they did lately, then they will face a great nightmare in New Orleans. They are being very vulnerable both against the running game and the passing game and the only way I see Atlanta to fight for the win in this game is to nullify the Saints' rushing game and mainly to deliver pressure and to sack the QB Drew Brees, which is a thing I doubt will happen today.

Atlanta offense has a good QB Matt Ryan, great quality Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, but on the last games, Matt Ryan has been playing very badly and is making several bad calls during the games and that has translated in losses for the Falcons

The New Orleans Saints have always been a very powerful team on the offense, but what makes this team really dangerous is the way how this team has found their balance. Not only they attack very well but also they are capable now of defending very well too, which has shown great results for the Saints.

Until now, stopping the Saints has been practically impossible, the ease how New Orleans has their quarterback throwing deep balls is awesome and the Saints have also been very good on the rushing game, which makes it even more complicated to defend against this powerful offense. If we take in account the fact that the Saints D has also been impressive, with a lot of interceptions under their belt and a good man coverage, then you really have to give to this New Orleans team their due credit and acknowledge an edge for this game.

The Saints when playing at home, are extremely difficult to beat, they have a tremendous crowd support and despite the last hick up in Miami, the team is in great shape and is surely one of the main contenders to be on the next Super Bowl this season. For this game, I'm going to take New Orleans and I believe they will win by 2 or more touchdowns


New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek, Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 8 results recap:

58 - Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-31: WIN)
59 - Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (38-17: WIN)
60 - New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: New York Giants PK -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (40-17: LOSS)
61 - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (30-13: LOSS)
62 - Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Minnesota Vikings +3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (26-38: WIN)
63 - Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -10 +100 (2.00) Bet Jamaica (21-34: LOSS)
64 - Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -10.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (35-27: LOSS)

SIDES: 3-4; (Week 8: -1.13 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 34-28 (+1.25 units won/64 units risked);
SIDES: 32-25 (+4.39 units won/57 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).


I've to improve my reads, too many pointspreads (12-12) won/lost by 10 or more points on the last 4 weeks...

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 9, I've only 5 pointspreads to risk:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek;

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker;

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker;

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[TommyGold]

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals come from a Bye Week and had enough time to study the Ravens and will surely be fit for this game. Baltimore after 3 straight losses were able to win their last game in a surprising way, still the team will have to raise their game to beat the Bengals on the road.

Baltimore's defense was undoubtedly their strong spot and was regarded as the best of the NFL, but with the transfer of Rex Ryan to the New York Jets team, we have seen a lot of mistakes done by the Ravens' D and their opponents had taken advantage of those errors. On the other hand, we have a good QB Carson Palmer who usually plays very well against Baltimore and he has good chances to do deep passes on this game with WR Chad Ochocinco as the main target. On the Running Game, Cincinnati has RB Cedric Benson playing very well this season and he has been reliable game after game.

Cincy is having a lot of difficulties on focus against average teams, their motivation seems to never be the better, but against top teams, they always give their best and on this season, they are being quite successful, their defense has been quite well too, mainly against the opponents' running game. I see a lot of troubles for RB Ray Rice to do a good game today and the same goes to QB Joe Flacco and his deep passes para o WR Derrick Mason, which will be today a risky proposition because Cincy D has been playing very well against the passing game too.

This season I consider these Bengals a serious contender for the playoffs, with an excellent defense and offense so far, as long Carson Palmer remains healthy, and for this game, Cincinnati has the edge on all the match ups (defense, offense, running game and QB position) and their home field advantage will surely help the small home dog Bengals to win this game straight up.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Arizona this season reminds me a New York Giants that had bad home games but on the road were able to win all their matches and the same thing is happening this year to these Cardinals, which are playing much better on the road than at home. Arizona was completely dominated by Carolina's rushing game last week, still the Cards are one of the best teams to stop that kind of offense. RB Matt Forte will surely have some difficulties on his rushing game because I believe that Arizona will surely show much more attitude on that defensive aspect during this game thanks to what happened last week.

Arizona's running game is not one of the best in the league, despite RB Tim Hightower has shown some improvements lately this season, but we all know how good the Cards are on the passing game, with a good QB Kurt Warner on the road and excellents WR Larry Fitzgerald and WR Anquan Boldin as main targets. The great problem with the Chicago Bears team has been their offense, the defense is doing their job, QB Jay Cutler shakes a lot when the offensive game becomes obvious for the Bears O, meaning that when the team goes for the Passing Game only, Jay Cutler is not cut for the task and suffers interceptions, 11 this season.

For this game, besides the home field advantage, the only edges I give for the Bears are the running game and the passing defense, because on the air offense the Cardinals are a much more superior team and I think that it will be on the passing game that a good and experienced Warner will give us the edge for this game against a shaky Jay Cutler when pressured to make the right calls, so I believe that Arizona will win this game straight up as a small road dog.

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

It is a fact that both teams are having a very bad season so far, the Detroit Lions (1-6) not even with QB Matthew Stafford cannot stop losing games after games, which is understandable since is his rookie year on the NFL, but because the team has several injured players in key positions and the main absence of this Lions team is their best player, WR Calvin Johnson. Without him, the team can't score much more points and that is a bad thing, because this team suffers a lot of points.

The Lions D is very bad, they conceded a lot of points and on the road games, they are a complete mess, usually suffering around 30+ points which is ridiculous. Without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford is in deep trouble, because the Lions' rushing game with RB Kevin Smith is not a big deal either, so we have a Detroit Lions team with a weak offense and one of the worst defenses in the NFL on the points allowed ranking.

Seattle Seahawks (2-5) this season have not convinced, it is true that QB Matt Hasselbeck has missed some games, but even with him the team has been far away of what was being expected of the Seahawks this season, yet they play at home today and it's never easy to play in Seattle and they will face one of the worst teams of the NFL. Against lousy teams like the Rams, they didn't suffer a single point and against the Jaguars the end result was a clear 41-0. It's on the road games that they are completely dominated.

Why I see value on this point spread of the Seahawks is easy to explain. The team as a good quarterback and Hasselbeck has good receivers to pass the ball like WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh and WR Nate Burleson, which will surely cause a lot of damage on the weak Lions' defense and even on the rushing game RB Julius Jones will be able to do a good game, because Detroit defense is also weak against this kind of offense.

Again, it's true that the Seahawks has convinced anyone this season, but they have a good team and playing at home against the worst team of the NFL right now, I believe that Seattle will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF)

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) despite their last match has not been their best game, they had showed good performances on the last weeks. QB Tony Romo has found a new buddy to whom he can trust the ball: WR Miles Austin. He has been the key for Dallas to win the last games, but on this game the Cowboys offense will face on the road a better defense than any of the defenses they had encounter on the previous 3 matches and that is the reason why they had won those games.

The Cowboys team has a good rushing game thanks to their RB Marion Barber and RB Felix Jones, who are very strong and they always win good yards for Dallas. The passing game seems to work well too, with Miles Austin e TE Jason Witten, but truth be told, they haven't faced yet on the road such a good defense like the Eagles D, if we exclude the home loss on the Week 2 against the New York Giants, and we should not forget that Tony Romo always trembles on these high profile marquee games when it's time to make difficult calls.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) has also improved this season, because his offensive line has been able to give their QB Donovan McNabb enough time for him to solve the situation and his passes are rarely intercepted. He is doing a fantastic season and usually makes the right calls, if the Eagles' OL are able once again to give him enough time inside the pocket, Donovan McNabb will certainly cause a lot of damage on the Cowboys defense, which is nothing special, thanks to WR DeSean Jackson e TE Brent, whom will be a true danger to Dallas D.

The return to good form of the Eagles' rushing game is also good news for Philadelphia, LeSean McCoy has done good performances, but with RB Brian Westbrook back, he is one of the best rushers of the NFL, the Eagles offense will show a nice versatility and do heavy damage on the Cowboys defense.

The way Philadelphia has played lately at home and with the home field advantage, plus the loud support of their crowd, makes this Eagle team the right small home favorite and I expect them to win this game by at least one touchdown.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

*duplicated post*

[TommyGold]

Finished Sunday with a 3-1 record, let's hope that the Steelers will got a win tonight.

[TommyGold]

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF)

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) are playing much better lately and they had returned to their old form which gave them the title last season and Denver was slaughtered by the Ravens last week, so this is a very promising game between one team that wants to continue winning and another one which wants to return to success.

Denver Broncos (6-1) are doing a great campaign, showing a good defense, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well and that is what is giving them winnings. QB Kyle Orton is doing a good season and he has proven me wrong about him sometimes this season, because I think he is just an average quarterback, but he has been able to make good calls on the field and his partners WR Brandon Marshall and WR Jabar Gaffney have been playing very well too. Their running game is easy to predict because they only use RB Knowshon Moreno and he will hardly do anything today against one of the best rushing defenses of the NFL.

Pittsburgh started bad the season with 2 wins and 2 losses on the first 4 games but on their last 4 games the team has played much better, their defense has returned to normal, delivering great pressure on the opponent's quarterback, and QB Big Ben Roethlisberger has also improved his offense and his connection with WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes is doing again heavy damage on the opposite's defenses and even their rushing game with RB Willie Parker and RB Rashard Mendenhall are going forward down the field.

After a lousy start, the Steelers are again on top and the Broncos last week had faced a defense that always causes great problems against the opponent's quarterback thanks to their pressure, and I believe that this Pitts D will be able to do the same thing, by delivering a lot of pressure and getting some sacks in the process, complicating things to the Broncos defense. For me, the Steelers is the most complete team on this game and despite playing on the road, I believe that they will be able to win this MNF.


Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2,5 1.87 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Below is my Week 9 results recap:

65 - Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (17-7: WIN)
66 - Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: Arizona Cardinals +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (21-41: WIN)
67 - Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -10 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (32-20: WIN)
68 - Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (SNF): Philadelphia Eagles -3 +105 (2.05) Bookmaker (16-20: LOSS)
69 - Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos (MNF): Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes (10-28: WIN)

SIDES: 4-1; (Week 8: +2.44 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 38-29 (+3.69 units won/69 units risked);
SIDES: 36-26 (+6.83 units won/62 units risked);
TOTALS 2-5 (-3.14 units lost/7 units risked).

Winning 55% so far, not bad. :P

[NJrookie]

They should call you TommyPLATINUM !

[Parligod]

Nice job and good analysis. I was on the same side as you on all games except for Ravens/Bengals.

[TommyGold]

They should call you TommyPLATINUM !

I wonder what one would say if was hitting only 42%... :P

Many thanks for you compliment, NJrookie!

Nice job and good analysis. I was on the same side as you on all games except for Ravens/Bengals.

Many thanks, Parligod!

[TommyGold]

For the Week 10's Thursday Night Football game, I've this pick:


Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers

Chicago Bears (4-4) on their last 4 games, only managed to win once and it was against the weak Cleveland Browns at home, on the other 3 games against good teams, they were completely dominated, specially against the Cincinatti Bengals and against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, San Francisco 49ers (3-5) are win-less 4 games in a row, a streak that started with the Falcons massacre and continued losing until last week, with 3 games lost with a play difference, thus they managed to keep their games somewhat close.

Chicago Bears are at the moment playing badly, thanks to their secondary, which has been completely dominated by teams with a good passing game. They have important players missing in the team, mainly SS Al Afalava. If things are not pretty in the Bears defense thanks to secondary problems, it only gets worse because they can't stop the opponents' rushing game. And things can get more ugly for the Bears, because on the other side we have one of the best league rushers, RB Frank Gore, whom rarely fumbles the ball and has a 5.6 yards per carry average (YPC).

QB Jay Cutler has a good arm, but his bigger problem is when he faces a good defense that pressures to well the opponents' quarterback, which is the case of the 49ers defense. When that happens, Jay Cutler doesn't know what to do the ball and he throws completely at random and I think that on this game, he will have again big troubles to have enough time to make good calls and if that happens, Jay Cutler will suffer some passes intercepted plus a lot of incomplete passes.

Lately, Jay Cutler's main weapon has been TE Greg Olsen, who scored on the last game 3 touchdowns against Arizona, surely he won't do again do such a performance so soon, because the 49ers defend quite well and because their defensive unit will be more focused on this game than the Cards D, which had already the game won and didn't cared too much with Greg Olsen.

As Wide Receivers, Chicago counts with WR Earl Bennet, an average player, and WR Devin Hester who has 3 touchdowns scored and a 13.4 yards YPC, which means that Devin Hester is dangerous thanks to his top speed, but the Bears against aggressive defenses haven't been able to do much.

The Bears' rushing game results are sub par on the last weeks, we all know that RB Matt Forte (3.6 YPC) is a very good player, but is has not been lately on his best form, besides RB Garrett Wolfe is injured, so there is no quality backup to give Matt Forte some rest, which means that Chicago will have to play much more by the air, which makes their offense more predictable and that can be very dangerous when you play against a aggressive defense like the one displayed by the 49ers.

San Francisco is going again with QB Alex Smith as the starting quarterback and I agree with this decision, he is undoubtedly the best quarterback of the team and for this offense he is the most suited player to lead this team, having good options on the wide receivers and tight end positions. I think that the 49ers will launch at least 3 wide receivers for this game, WR Josh Morgan (13.8 YPC) who is improving week after week, WR Isaac Bruce (12.2 YPC) and the rookie WR Michael Crabtree (11,9 YPC), a very good player to match with the kind of quarterback like Alex Smith.

San Francisco also has on the best league's tight ends, TE Vernon Davis, who is the main target for the 49ers quarterback. Thanks to this new offense that San Francisco is trying to implement, the 49ers can complicate very much the life of the Bears' secondary and that might be the key for San Francisco to win this game. They also have a good rushing game, so if Chicago focus more on defending the 49ers' passing game, RB Frank Gore (5.6 YPC) will take care of business by the ground, which makes this offense very dangerous for the Bears' defense. Frank Gore has been great this season so far, he has already scored 5 touchdowns and has only 1 fumble.

San Francisco defense is very good against the rushing game, and RB Matt Forte will not have an easy task today. Against the passing game the 49ers D is not that bad either, but is not that effective when compared against the opponents' ground offense, but they have shown good qualities (aggressiveness and pressure) when they face a strong opposition's passing game, being the games against the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts two good examples, even if the Colts didn't played with a 100% commitment level, since they are close to clinch a playoffs berth.

In short, with San Francisco having a good defense and knowing that they will surely deliver a lot of pressure against Jay Cutler, we can expect some costly errors from the Bears' quarterback. The 49ers rushing game is one of the best lately and the Bears D has a lot of gaps against this kind of offense, so I expect a long night for Chicago on this field. The 49ers O in the passing game is improving and Alex Smith is the best match for his receivers and this is for me the biggest edge for San Francisco on this game, since the Bears' secondary has some important players missing due to injuries, which is translating in bad performances on their last games against good offensive teams.

This will be a short week for both teams, specially for Chicago who has to travel and with the important home field advantage for the 49ers, I believe that they will have enough commitment and enthusiasm to win this game at least by 1 touchdown.


Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3 125 (1.80) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 10, I've only 5 more point spreads and 2 totals to risk:

Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals: Under 46.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts: New England Patriots +3 -125 The Greek and Under 49.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: Baltimore Ravens -10.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

I love the New England Patriots ML +125 The Greek too, but for the record on NFL 2009, I'll just keep playing the pointspreads.

Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

[NJrookie]

Sorry to clutter your thread with newbie questions .... but can I ask what does PK and ML mean ?

[TommyGold]

Sorry to clutter your thread with newbie questions .... but can I ask what does PK and ML mean ?

Sure. PK means pick'em. It is the same as zero on the point spread. ML means moneyline and for practical results, it is the same as a pick'em pointspread, the difference is that the moneyline market usually translates much better the real odds for each outcome, barring the fact that it might have tons of juice on the favorite and some juice on the dog, making the overround quite nice for the bookie.

ML or moneyline odds are often used in MLB and NHL betting markets, but you can also found them in soccer, where the tie is an important factor to have in mind, like in NHL in regulation time. Hope this explanations clears your doubts.

Next question?

[TommyGold]

Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins


Denver Broncos (6-2) after a very nice start winning their first 6 games, have conceded 2 losses against Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Washington Redskins (2-6) are in a deep crisis after 5 straight losses, which makes this game a very important one for both teams, but mainly for the Broncos who have the San Diego Chargers right behind them on the division standings.

QB Kyle Orton started the season with very good performances, but when he faced two teams that really know how to pressure the opponents' quarterback, he started to shake and wasn't unable to develop is usual game. Good news is that the Washington Redskins aren't quite the Ravens or the Steelers regarding defensive pressure and I think that we will see Kyle Orton going back to his old form in the early season.

Denver offense is quite good on the passing game and there is a simple reason for that: Broncos have two great quality players in the wide receivers positions, which are WR Jabar Gaffney and WR Brandon Marshall. Having these two great targets is very good because there are a lot of times that Orton doesn't throw correctly the ball but those two guys are always able to catch the ball and win good yards for their team.

Broncos' rushing game counts with the rookie RB Knowshon Moreno who's doing a great first season (3.7 YPC) and RB Correll Buckhalter (5.5 YPC). The ground offense is not the stronger suit of the Denver offense and that is why the team relies a lot more on the passing game than usual, which is understandable. Besides, they also have TE Daniel Graham who from time to time is a good option to pass the ball.

Denver defense is also very good, mainly against the opponents' passing game, the team is able to do a good coverage and is also capable to pressure the opponents' quarterbacks, causing several sacks. Stopping the running game is another matter, they had struggled a bit on their last games, but even on this subject luck seems to be on the Broncos side, because RB Clinton Portis will not play and an easier task is expected when having to face RB Ladell Betts. I expect the Redskins to choose to play much more by the air than using their ground offense and it is against the passing game that the Broncos D will make the difference.

Washington promised a lot but it was only promises, the Redskins lost their focus and the mood in the team is awful and even the supporters seem to be much more against the team than otherwise and with all these facts against the home team, it is hard for Washington to do something interesting in the remaining season, when the team has already quit on itself.

QB Jason Campbell has intermittent performances, he is able to mix a series of good calls with a series of bad calls and because of that he has almost the same number of interceptions (8) than touchdowns passes (9). It is also true that is has limited options on his offense to play with, because without WR Santana Moss, the team doesn't have anyone else with enough quality to pass the ball. WR Chris Cooley and TE Fred Davis surely aren't the best options to play with against an excellent Broncos' passing defense.

Without Clinton Portis, the Skins ground offense will have to rely on RB Ladell Betts and he is an unknown factor for this Washington rushing offense. For what I know, Ladell Betts is not a great rusher, but he belongs to that kind of rushers who make catches and with this option, I see two problems for the Redskins: if they don't go with the rush, the Broncos D will punish Jason Campbell very hard and get some sacks, if they use him a lot more on this game, then there are some good chances for the Denver defense to escape from big troubles, because defending against the rush is the weak spot of the Broncos D.

The Skins D is average against the opponents' rushing game, but when the matter at hand is the passing game, they really show great difficulties to stop it, which can be lethal against the Broncos O, because we know that Denver offense doesn't use much the running game, they will prefer to keep attacking the Redskins secondary and with the two wide receivers the Broncos have, I can't blame them, I see a lot of troubles for this Washington defense to stop them.

Denver has the best team and the greater motivation to win this game, they need to keep a safe distance from the San Diego Chargers on the league standings, while the Redskins apparently have already quit on themselves like everyone else in Washington, and with the Broncos offensive quality already displayed this season, against an offense that in the entire season wasn't capable to produce anything outstanding, I think the Denver Broncos will win this game by at least 1 touchdown.


Pick: Denver Broncos -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers


Atlanta Falcons (5-3) needs to win in order to get a good seed position for the postseason with a Wild Card, they are currently tied with the same record as Arizona and Philadelphia, while Carolina Panthers (3-5) has at least 5 teams in front of them for the NFL 2009 Playoff Race, has all the pressure one team can have if they still want to have a slight chance to win a spot on the playoffs.

QB Matt Ryan on the last weeks has dropped a bit his rhythm and has suffered some interceptions but I rate this sophomore as a great quarterback who makes good calls and knows how to make this offense work properly. Matt Ryan tools at his disposal are many, on the wide receivers positions we have WR Roddy White who has a 14.3 yards per catch average and WR Michael Jenkins (12.8 AVG), plus the one of the best tight end of the NFL, TE Tony Gonzalez.

If the Falcons' passing game is very powerful with all this weapons, the Atlanta offense becomes much more dangerous when we have a RB Michael Turner who has been excellent on the last weeks, doing great quality performances and I believe that he will do a great game this afternoon, because on the other side, the best Carolina player is injured (OLB Thomas Davis) and surely Michael Turner will have his holes and gaps to exploit on that Panthers defense and repeat the great last weeks' games.

The Falcons' D has some shortcomings, mainly against the passing game, which by the way is not the strong spot of the Panthers, since they are an 80% rushing team, which helps us a little bit, because the Atlanta defensive unit is much better when you need to stop the opponents' running game, which is good news for us.

As I already said, Carolina relies too much on their rushing game and I'm not surprised with that since QB Jake Delhomme is doing a horrible season and is afraid to throw deep, because he knows he runs serious risks of suffering a few more interceptions, he already has 13 interceptions this season. It is true that on his last 2 games he didn't throw any interceptions, but almost all the Panthers offense plays where done thanks to the running game and therefore, he couldn't harm his team anymore on this subject.

Jake Delhomme has WR Steve Smith to pass the ball, but rarely he uses him, the same happens with WR Muhsin Muhammed or TE Jeff King. I can't entirely blame Delhomme, because almost all the offensive game of the Panthers is based on their rushers RB DeAngelo Williams and RB Jonathan Stewart. De Angelo (5.2 YPC) is undoubtedly one of the best rushers of the NFL and his 7 touchdowns show that. I'm know that despite his keen "limitations" we will play this game and certainly will do a good performance, but anyway Carolina will have a predictable offense.

Talking about the Panthers D, they don't have a bad passing game defense, but they will a lot of problems to stop the Atlanta offense. Carolina rushing defense was average and the only one standing out is Thomas Davis, who's sidelined due to injury for this game and I see a lot of problems for the Panthers in stopping a Falcons' Michael Turner in great form.

Again, this is an important game for both teams, maybe a little more for the Falcons, I believe that Matt Ryan will play better on this match and will do a good performance, because he has a lot of good options to choose from in order to win this game and with Michael Turner in great shape playing against a bad rushing defense which has their best player out, I believe the running back will be one of the key players for a road win of the Atlanta Falcons.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons PK -120 (1.83) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers


Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are rally improving their game in the last weeks and the team is much more close and solid than in the early start of the season and this game will be a test for them, if they want to keep their good position for the playoffs. Green Bay Packers (4-4) comes from a loss on the road on Tampa Bay where the defense was quite below the expected and if they don't improve for this game, they will have a very long game ahead.

QB Tony Romo since a few weeks ago was able to discover the best way to lead his offense, if before he only used TE Jason Witten, now he goes along with WR Miles Austin (22.7 AVG) who has been Dallas' best weapon to score touchdowns. Since this new presence in the Dallas offense, the opposition' defenses had shift their focus on Miles Austin, which has given more room for Jason Witten to have more opportunities to play. Besides these two wide receivers, Tony Romo still has WR Roy E. Williams who is not a bad player at all and sometimes does good catches and also deserves careful attention from the opponent's defense.

If the Cowboys O has now with good weapons for the passing game, their ground offense has also good tools to get the job done. RB Marion Barber is one of the best NFL rushers and very hard to stop, he is very strong and even suffering a hit, he is usually able to win one or two more yards and his backup RB Felix Jones is also an excellent rusher with a 7.3 yards per carry average, which is a very good average indeed.

On the defensive side, Dallas has also improved, mainly against the passing game, which is good for this game, besides the team has also improved on the pressure against the opponents' quarterback and QB Aaron Rodgers will have a difficult task, with OLB DeMarcus Ware in great form, always able to get near the opposition's quarterback and causing a lot of pressure and knowing that the Packers' OL is horrible when it comes to protect their quarterback, the Cowboys will surely take advantage of that situation. Dallas rushing defense has also improved lately which is a plus for this game too, despite the fact Green Bay uses more often the passing game on their offense.

Aaron Rodgers is doing a good season, but his stats are dropping, we know that his OL can't protect him from suffering a lot of sacks, his pocket often collapses, but we should be fair on this one, a lot of the sacks he has suffered so far this season were due to the fact he takes too much time to make his calls. Like I said, Rodgers should be very careful on this game, because OLB DeMarcus Ware is mastering his trade...

When Rodgers is not busy trying to figure it out to whom he should pass the ball or when is OL is simply crushed by the opponent's defense, we can rate as a good unit this Green Bay offense. WR Donald Driver and mainly WR Greg Jennings are great players and even the rushing game is doing good thanks to RB Ryan Grant, but the Packers ground offense can only dial up some good calls when facing bad teams, therefore I see some difficulties for Green Bay to do a good running game against Dallas.

If taking aside the known problems of the Packers offense, we have a good unit to be worried about, when the subject is the Green Bay defense, then the Packers supporters start to be really troubled. This Green Bay defense is being terrible mainly against the passing game, the secondary has been completely outplayed by every team they already faced so far and they will have to face this afternoon an offense that has been on fire lately, so a lot of suffering has to be expected from the Packers secondary. Green Bay running defense is not that bad, but Dallas has a good ground offense and complications might arise for the Packers defense.

Right now Green Bay has a lot of problems to protect Aaron Rodgers and their secondary will be surely heavily exploited by Dallas offense, it is true that the Packers offense is quite good, but the Cowboys D has improved a lot and the small road favorite has a lot of solutions to complicate things for the small home dog, so I think that Dallas can win this game by at least one touchdown.


Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3 +105 (2.05) The Greek