Tommy Gold NFL Picks

[TommyGold]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati (3-1) has started very well the season, they are 2-0 "perfect" on the road, only a loss on their first game, they had a great win against the Steelers, but I think that against the Ravens this good moment will come to an end. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, but he will have a lot of problems against the outstanding Ravens' run defense. Cincy D has been very well so far and that is perhaps the main reason why the Bengals are having a very nice record this early in the season, but for this game, they will face a good rusher and a QB that is improving game after game and knows how to take the correct decisions throughout the game, what can quite complicate the life to the Bengals' D.

Despite last week defeat, Baltimore (3-1) is still for me one of the best teams in the NFL, very well organized throughout the field, their rushing game and passing game is performing very well, their Offense has scored a lot of points against all the teams they already face this season. Defensively Baltimore is a very strong team, not as strong like last season, but still one of the best in the league, playing very agressively, creating a lot of troubles to the opponents' quarterbacks and they are very strong against the opposition's running game.

After their last loss, and the way it happened, I don't see how the Ravens can possible lose this game and on top they have the home field advantage (2-0 home). Baltimore is a much better team on the offense and on the defense than the Bengals are, and I think they will win this game by 2 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers

Atlanta (2-1) has a good QB, great quality Wide Receivers, which makes the air offense of the Falcons very dangerous. This is undoubtedly their strong spot, specially if we add their excellent TE Tony Gonzalez to the mix, and it is the Falcons O that will in my opinion make the difference in this game in favor of Atlanta. On the defensive plan, the Falcons had ups and downs, they have not a bad defensive unit, but they rely more on their offense than on their defense during the matches.

San Francisco (3-1) is doing a very nice start, but for this game is up to the 49ers' QB the responsability of solving this game for the West Coast team, if they want to keep winning, because their main rusher will not play and surely Shaun Hill will have to rely more on the passing game, which makes this 49ers' O a little bit predictable for this game. Anyway, is not the offense the best side of this San Francisco team, at least is not the major player in their wins, but their standout defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well, but despite their qualities, I believe that the Falcons O will give the 49ers D a lot of trouble with their WRs and TEs.

For me, the Falcons have a better team than the 49ers in the overall, the 49ers are stronger in the defense while the Falcons have the better offense, but I believe that in this game, the Atlanta Offense will prevail and therefore, I have to go with the small underdog on the road.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes, ATL +3 -115/1,87 Bodog

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Is no news that for me QB Tom Brady will be one day in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as one of the best Quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. He his improving is game week after week and therefore, I expect him to play better than in his last game against the Ravens. New England (3-1) has one of the best offenses in the league, playing much better than expect in this season start and with the return of WR Wes Welker, Brady will have again more quality options to pass the ball. If in the early season, the biggest issue with these Patriots was their defense and how they would behave against their opponents' offenses, now we can say that is thanks to their D that the Pats have already 3 wins under their belt. It is a young defensive unit, and they are improving their game week after week.

Denver (4-0) hasn't lost a game yet on this season and the reason for that is their great defense. The Broncos D is playing very well, causing a lot of pressure on the opponents' quarterbacks and they are getting a lot of sacks too, 15 already. Their QB Kyle Orton has been doing a nice season so far, but frankly I think he still has a long road ahead to become a good quarterback. Orton has 5 TD and 0 INTS, but he can be very thankful to his great quality WRs, which are doing excellent catches despite the bad throws delivered by Orton, with several low balls like I saw in his last game against the Dallas Cowboys. If it weren't his WRs getting all those balls with outstanding catches and we would see incomplete after incomplete passes.

New England is playing much better now, specially on the Offense and with the return of Wes Welker, the Patriots will have a broad range of tools to keep the Broncos D busy, and when Brady has that kind of options at his disposal, he plays much better, and this is for me the main factor for a fourth winner of the Pats this season, the first for the small favorite on the road, delivering the Broncos their first loss, and consequently both teams will finish the Week 5 with a 4-1 record. Take the Patriots to win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick : New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals

Houston (2-2) has showed already that they have a QB and steller WRs, which makes the Texans Offense very powerful. However, their biggest problem is their defense, having a lot of difficulties to stop both the opponents' passing game and running game as well. One of the reasons is the high number of casualties in the defensive unit with several important injured players. So, we have a team that despite being capable of scoring a lot of points in a good day, they will also suffer a lot of points too, thanks to the weaknesses present in their defense right now.

Arizona (1-2) after that last MNF defeat and a shameful home loss display against the Colts, had a Bye Week and they are now returning to competition with another home game and surely we will see this Cards team up and ready to win this game and get their first home win this season. Arizona has a good, seasoned quarterback and Kurt Warner has very good Wide Receivers to play with, the greatest problem with his offense is with the rushing game, which is being very bad, but I believe that on this game, the Cards will seize the opportunity to earn some important yards on the ground against the Texans D. The Arizona's defensive unit had a dismal performance against the Colts and I honestly expect that they had used this Bye Week to deeply review and analyze everything that went wrong in that game, so they can avoid doing again the same mistakes in this match.

I'm not seeing the Cardinals losing two straight games at home, specially when they badly need to win, against a depleted Texans' defense, facing a lot of problems on their own, which Arizona will surely exploit thanks to their great offensive options. I believe in a home win for the Cards and I really trust that Arizona will win by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Peyton Manning is in great shape, he is doing his best start ever, he is one of the best Quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. He and Pierre Garçon are getting along very well, working together to decide the games in the Colts' favor very soon in the match and I think that will happen again in this game. If the Colts' O is very good and their performance is enhanced as a unit thanks to their excellent QB, the Indianapolis defense has been also outstanding, playing very well against the both opponents' running game and passing game, making a lot of pressure on the opposition's Quarterback and provoking a lot of errors in the adversaries' offense.

Tennessee has a very good team, their roster is very capable, but they are playing very badly. The Titans D, which once was the heart of the team, is being completely horrible, and they have some important casualties in their secundary, which will complicate their life against the Colts O. The Tennesse offense has been very weak, the team is relying only on their rushing game and they will face a team that is defending very well against the ground offense thisseason.

Historically this Titans' team does well at home against Indianapolis but for what I've seen this season of both teams, I only one winner and that winner is the Colts' team. They have a Quarterback that is playing very well, the Titans' D has been very bad, the Colts' D is being very impressive, mainly against the ground offense, and with all these factors mixed together, I believe that the Colts will win this game easily, specially by the fact that Peyton Manning doesn't have any problems in playing on the road in a Sunday Night Football, no extra pressure for him, he even loves this extra exposure and he even plays better with all the media and public attention focused on him. Henceforth, take the small favorite in the road and please, do me a favor: enjoy the game!


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

With the Week 5 MNF game pending, we are 5-2 on SIDES (+2,57 units) this week.

[TommyGold]

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

The New York Jets (3-1) offense rely on their rookie QB Mark Sanchez, which is doing a nice NFL career start so far, to get the job done, but he will need a lot of games on his legs to become a good quarterback. The stronger spot of this Jets team this season is their defense, with great performances, being very well organized in the field and playing very well against the opponent's passing game adversário. LB Calvin Pace is returning to the team and he will play a vital role in his team to stop the opponent's rushing game, and for me, he is one of the best players in the league for that particular job. The Jets offense has some ups and downs, but I believe that against Miami's defense, they can get the upper hand.

Miami (1-3) will start again with QB Chad Henne for this game, he is not a bad player, but for me, the only thing he does well is to throw deep and not much else for now. Perhaps he can be a great quarterback in the future, but he has a long way to go. It is true that offensively, the Fins had everything going their way, but this Jets D has nothing to do with the Bills defense, in fact, I think this Miami offense will have huge difficulties in getting something positive from this game in the scoring department, despite having a good rusher, but the Dolphins will face a great running defense, suplemented with the return of LB Calvin Pace. Miami's D has not been very well this season so far and I believe they will have some troubles facing the Jets offense tonight.

Overall, I think that the Gang Green has everything to win this game, their defense has been very strong, the return of Calvin Pace is another advantage for the Jets, and despite being on the road and playing in the Fins home, I believe that the Jets will have more chances to progress down the field and score some points than Miami will against the great Jets defense. So, take the small fav on the road and enjoy the game.


Pick: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek, NYJ -1 -110/1,91 Wagerstreet

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 5 results recap:

27 - Minnesota Vikings @ Saint Louis Rams: Minnesota Vikings -10 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
28 - Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +9 -125/1,80 The Greek (WIN)
29 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore Ravens -8,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (LOSS)
30 - Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: Atlanta Falcons +2,5 +100/2,00 5Dimes (WIN)
31 - New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos: New England Patriots -3 -110/1,91 5Dimes (LOSS)
32 - Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals: Arizona Cardinals -5,5 -110/1,91 Bookmaker (WIN)
33 - Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans: Indianapolis Colts -3,5 -105/1,95 5Dimes (WIN)
34 - New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: New York Jets -1 -115/1,87 The Greek (LOSS)

SIDES: 5-3 (Week 5: +1,57 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 18-16 (+0,31 units won/34 units risked);
SIDES: 17-13 (+2,4 units won/30 units risked);
TOTALS 1-3 (-2,09 units lost/4 units risked).

[yorksdicks]

nice write-ups

[TommyGold]

nice write-ups

Many thanks, yorksdicks!

[TommyGold]

Another week, another round, 10 more picks to play:

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins

Kansas City is still winless but I believe they can get their first win this week, they have improved a lot and QB Matt Cassel is starting to show his good qualities and that he is indeed, a good bet for the Chiefs. Their offense has improved as well, but they still have some problems to solve on their defense and they have to fix it in order to start winning some games.

Washington is having a complicated week, which is never good for a team, they are facing some internal (locker room) issues and they had played badly their last games, relying too much on their Home Games, because on the road, the Redskins are simply clueless. Their offense has not been well, their wins were provided by their defensive unit and that explains why when Washington wins a game, it is by a short difference.

I see here a good chance for the Chiefs to win their first game of the season, the prospect of playing a KAN ML +220 (3,20) is quite tempting, but on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins to win by only 1 FG difference. I think this will be a close and ugly game and I see a lot of value on the pointspread's puppy, so take Kansas City Chiefs plus the points.


Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals

Houston defense has several problems and today they face a pretty good offense, which has good options and the Texans will have a hard time to stop them. Houston's O doesn't have a very good rushing game but their excellent passing game makes it up, thanks to the great quality of their Wide Receivers and that is the strong spot of the Texans, but on this match they will face a defense that has played very well lately.

Cincinnati is doing a great season thanks to the balance between their offensive and defensive units, with the former showing a lot of "agression" and doing what has to be done in the decisive moments while the later has been playing quite well too, with their QB Carson Palmer in great shape after recovering from injury, with great options to choose from his array of Wide Receivers, which are performing in great manner. Besides, Cedric Benson is also shining on the rushing game, allowing the Bengals to provoke a lot of damage on their opponents' defenses. Overall, this team is playing quite well in all their departments.

Cincinnati will play in front of their audience and with the way the Bengals are playing and having the home field advantage, I believe this team can win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As all we know, Carolina is a Running Football team, it's where their game is stronger and they will use it again and again today. Their defense has not been quite well this season, but with the return of their great quality safety, I'm sure they will improve for this game. I believe the Panthers will cause a lot of troubles to Bucs D with their rushing game and they will win the game thanks to it.

I don't have much to say about Tampa Bay, it is for me a weak team, specially on their defense, having great difficulties to stop both the opponents' rushing game and the passing game as well, and on their offense, they are having problems to fill the quarterback position, no matter who plays, he won't give any more offensive power to his team, which has only 27 points scored in their last 2 or 3 games, since the Giants were able to defeat the Bucs by 24-0.

Despite playing at home, I don't see that as a major advantage for the Buccaneers, and historically the Panthers get well against this Bucs team if we take in account the last seasons games. With all this factors in mind, I trully believe in another win for the Carolina Panthers by 1 or more touchdowns, so having to lay only 3 points on this game is a nice value proposition.


Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook)

[TommyGold]

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders

Philadelphia is in my opinion one of the most powerful teams in the NFL, they are well served in the quarterback position, with a good starting QB, even the backups are good players. They also have good rushers and good wide receivers, which turns this team very powerful in their offense and allows them to score a lot of points. Their defense hasn't played bad either, but we should stress that the Eagles have spanked a lot of very low caliber teams, but truth be told, Philadelphia will face a weaker them than those faced by the Eagles.

After their first week display, we could had said that Oakland maybe could have a decent season, but after a few weeks, the reality is grim: their weak offense hurts our eyes, their quarterback is worthless, he throws at random the ball without any quality criteria to his Wide Receivers, which aren't good stuff either and even the rushing game, which should their stronger sector, has been completely out. On the defense, the Raiders have been miserable, I dunno if you watched their last game, but this team on the second half, simply gave up the game, which is a very worrying and troubling sign. Frankly, in my several years NFL experience of watching hundreds of game, these Raiders are absolutely at this moment the worst team I ever seen play in the NFL, but this is just my opinion.

Overall, I can only add that I'm only seeing an Eagles, Eagles and Eagles Big Time Win, I think Philadelphia has everything to win this game by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

First of all, this is a game of extreme importance to both teams in order to win this division, which makes this game very special for both of them.

Arizona has a good quarterback and excellent Wide Receivers as offensive weapons, and this is what their offense an really do, because their rushing game is pratically non-existent, so weak it is. Yet, the great problem this year for this Cards team is their D, sleeping a lot and unable to stop the opponents' passing game, otherwise they are very good at stopping the opposition's rushing game, put when the matter at hands is the passing game, they are completely dominated game after game.

Seattle thanks to the comeback of QB Matt Hasselbeck, has their offense immediatly improved and knowing how bad the Cardinals are defending against the passing game, Hasselbeck will surely take advantage f this fact by throwing some deep passes down the field. The SeahawksO is undoubtedly their stronger unit, with great players and a quarterback capable of throwing the ball wherever he wants to. Seattle are usually very strong at home and this is another factor I've in account to consider the Seahawks the best side to win this game.

For me, this is a game that will see a lof or air plays, because both teams play better that way, and since each team doesn't have too much troubles to arrive to the red zone quickly, I believe we'll have a game of a lot of points, I foresee at least 50 points scored in this game, so I see a lot of value on the Over, and besides that, I also like a lot the -3 pointspread for Seahawks, which have the home field advantage and this is a very important game for them to win their division and reach one more time the playoffs, so knowing how good Seattle plays at home, I believe that they are capable to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Picks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker & Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Buffalo is a very, very weak team judging by their displays in the last weeks, something that almost everyone already knew before Week 1. With TO already working his charm and doing a lot of damage on the locker room, makes this team's life quite difficult. Their defense has been bad and their offense hasn't showed anything with quality, despite some injuries and having started some rookies. So, again, their prospects are grim.

New York Jets has an excellent defense, despite their lousy display on the last MNF against the Dolphins, but despite that, do not think they don't have a good defensive unit, they are quite good and very agressive, and they will take good care of QB Trent Edwards in this game. This Jets O has showed their capabilities against Miami (which also saw their defense playing below average), playing much better with the return of Calvin Pace and from now on, they will cause a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses.

On this game, I can only see Jets, Jets and Jets, they have the home field advantage and they need to win this game because their main objective is to reach the Playoffs and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points, so take the Jets and lay the points.


Pick: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Tennessee after a season with a nice 10-0, "decided" to change to a 0-5 and probably they will extend this bad start to a 0-6. The Titans D which was their stronger unit, has been awful, and despite some important injuries, they should not been so bad, mainly against the passing game, they haven't been able to stop the opponent's offense and that is the main reason for the Titans having a losing record so far. The Titans O has showed anything yet, they are quite good on the rushing game, but their passing game hasn't got them anywhere, which makes this offensive unit very predictable for the opponent's defense.

New England is in a variable form, or they play quite well or they simply forget how to play this game, but the bad moments have happened more often on the road, because their home record shows good performances and nice wins to lift their morale. They have one of the best quarterbacks ever to set foot in the NFL and have stellar offense, I think on this game we will see WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore exploiting quickly the weak spots that the Titans defense has already showed this season. The Patriots D has played very well so far, if we "discount" some silly mistakes done by the younger players, which is something we should expect in the early season.

Patriots playing at home usually does good performances and doesn't let their backers down, they already had several good wins at home and I believe that they will win this game by 10 or more points against a (so far) lousy Titans team.

New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Chicago is doing a nice season, they have a decent QB, and RB Matt Forte is unquestionably the team's offensive engine that pushes the team forward down the field, winning yards after yards, which causes a lot of troubles on the opponents' defenses, which worry too much about him, allowing Jay Cutler to play some of his passing game as well, which allows the Bears to change a bit their offensive game. On the defensive plan, these Bears aren't that bad either. This Bears D is not one of the classical Bears defenses, very agressive and with a very low degree of permeability. Overall it is a good defense, but they will suffer a lot of damage against the great Falcons O quality.

Atlanta is also doing a good season, which was already somewhat expected. They have a good QB, great Wide Receivers and a nice Tight End, which makes this offense one of the most powerful of all the NFL. The Falcons also a good RB Michael Turner, which is showing lately his real value and has done great damage on the opponents defenses. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some problems against the rushing game, but on the last game they showed some improvements.

Knowing that the Falcons at home are a very strong team, knowing that their offense can score easily a lot of points, I believe that Atlanta will greatly benefit from their home field advantage and win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline

[TommyGold]

With the Week 6 MNF game pending, we are 4-4 on SIDES (-0,4 units) this week and we lost another total...

[TommyGold]

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos (5-0) are doing an excellent season start, defeating the Patriots at home in the last week, defending very well on the second half, but for me Denver got the win because the Pats simply fell asleep after the break. Denver has a decent quarterback, with good stats, but I think that Kyle Orton is just average, and lucky, thanks to his Wide Receivers that are capable to catch almost every bad ball he throws and getting some touchdowns on the Broncos offense, but that is part of the game.

The Chargers are 2-2, what makes this game so important for them, more than for the Broncos. The Chargers cannot lose this game, otherwise their prospects will dim. San Diego comes from a BYE, which is a good thing, because they had time enough to rest and study their opponent for tonight and surely they will do everything to win this game. They have a good quarterback which takes a lot of chances and sometimes throws some interceptions, but he is also capable of leading his team to advance down the field very quickly thanks to his deep passes and this way, get pass thru the oppositions' defenses. San Diego also has good rushers, but they haven't played well this season yet and the team has used more their passing game.

For this game, I expect a win for the Chargers because they had two weeks rest, enough time to change what was wrong in the team and get ready for this match, which is very important for them and they also have the home field advantage, all together, I believe the Chargers will win this game by one or more touchdowns.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Below are my Week 6 results recap:

35 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: Kansas City Chiefs +6,5 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Bet Jamaica; KAN +6 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (6-14: WIN)
36 - Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals -5 -110 (1,91) The Greek, Legends, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (17-28: LOSS)
37 - Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers -3 -115 (1,87) The Greek, Diamond (DSI Sportsbook) (21-28: WIN)
38 - Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders: Philadelphia Eagles -14 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-9: LOSS)
39 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -3 +100 (2,00) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
40 - Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 46,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (3-27: LOSS)
41 - Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: New York Jets -9,5 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (13-16: LOSS)
42 - Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: New England Patriots -9 -105 (1,95) The Greek; NEP -9 -110 (1,91) Bookmaker (59-0: WIN)
43 - Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons -3,5 -110 (1,91) The Greek; ATL -3,5 -105 (1,95) BetOnline (21-14: WIN)
44 - Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers: San Diego Chargers -3,5 +105 (2,05) The Greek (23-34: LOSS)

SIDES: 4-5; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 6: -2,4 units);

NFL 2009 Season results: 22-22 (-2,09 units won/44 units risked);
SIDES: 21-18 (+1 unit won/39 units risked);
TOTALS 1-4 (-3,09 units lost/5 units risked).

[TommyGold]

For NFL 2009 Week 7, I'm leaning on the road dog SFO +3 +100 (2.00) Bookmaker against the small fav HOU -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes, but I can't have a good read for both teams on this game.

I've 11 picks on pointspreads and 2 picks on totals, so follow or fade at your discretion. Writeups will be posted later during the weekend.

Sides:

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins: Philadelphia Eagles -7 -105 (1.95) The Greek


Totals:

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins: Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: Over 46 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New England Patriots (4-2) has shown on their last game that they have one of the best offenses in the league, the unit that will play this afternoon in London for the International Series is the same when the season started, but it looks like that QB Tom Brady is improving his game week after week and so does his offensive "counterparts". I think that on this game we will see again WR Randy Moss running deep in the field and catching some express-deep passes from QB Tom Brady and therefore quickly exploiting the weak spots of this Bucs defense like they've done against the Titans last week, coupled with the use of Wes Welker on the short passes and with those tools, the Pats will be able to travel fast down the field. The Patriots D has played very well so far, despite some small errors, they have done their job but they are now still performing much better than their O comrades. In fact, the Pats O has failed much more times, not the defense. The rushing game is also doing well and New England will face on of the worst teams defending this king of game.

Tampa Bay Bucaneers (0-6) has a lot of injured players on their defense and their secondary is not a great unit either. They show enormous problems both against the Rushing Game and against the Passing Game as well, but is their rushing game defensive scheme that has shown the worst problems. The Bucs O has not played that bad, they showed a good effort on their last game, but the last time they faced a good defense, they were unable to score a single point, just remember the 0-24 loss at home against the giants, so I don't believe we will see the Bucs scoring a lot of points on this contest either..

This game will be Big Time for Patriots, since they have all the edges, both on the Offense and on the Defense, they have the best quarterback, and this Tampa Bay defense has shown so far that they have much more problems defending the ground offense than stopping the passing game, where the Pats have shown good things. This is a game for the Patriots, playing in front of a lot of european supporters, to win by more than 2 touchdowns.


Pick: New England Patriots -14.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers (3-2) have a nice defense, very agressive and when they are playing really well. they are able to nullify the opponent's defense, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well. The Packers O has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, however this Green Bay offense doesn't have pratically a rushing game, which forces the Packers to abuse from their passing game, which poses some problems to the Packers offense.

Cleveland Browns (1-5) changed their starting quarterback from QB Brady Quinn to QB Derek Anderson, a nice decision by the Browns' head coach by the way, since their offense started to improve, both on the passing game and on the rushing game as well, but that won't change much their fortunes, because both players for that role are very weak after all, and this Browns O is still having a lot of troubles to score points, only 1 touchdown scored per game in average says it all. The Cleveland defense has also improved, but that doesn't mean they are now a good defensive unit, the team gives up a lot of ground against the rushing game and they don't do much damage against the opponents' passing game, having a lot of problems against that kind of game, thanks to the several problems showed by their secondary so far.

On the road, the Packers are a scoring machine, they average 33 points scored on the road and I wouldn't be surprised to see them scoring that much this afternoon on the Cleveland Browns Stadium. The Packers have a better defense and their passing game should prevail against a weaker defense. I expect Green Bay to score around 30 points and the Browns should not score more than 10 to 13 points, therefore we are having value on the road favorite.


Pick: Green Bay Packers -8.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[shantystar]

Packers will definitely cover spread

[runners]

Hows the weather in London?

[TommyGold]

San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-3) for a change are once again starting another season miserably like they did on the previous years, truth is they just need to start winning to have a nice hit streak. They simply cannot lose this game and I'm not seeing a way they could lose this match.

QB Philip Rivers is very reliable, makes good decisions on the field, his passes usually suffer very few interceptions and he has good options in his offense to play with, but the team should change and start using their rushing game more often. I know that RB LaDainian Tomlinson has not played a good game this season, despite the his last performances signaling that an improvement to his good old form is underway, so he can show again to everyone in the league that he is an elite rusher, the talent is all there. The Chargers have also a good defense that can apply a lot of pressure on the opponent's OL, when they are focused in the game, something that we have only seen on their third game so far against he Miami Dolphins, by only allowing a late touchdown on the fourth quarter.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) are improving throughout the season, with nice performances on the offense lately thanks to a QB Matt Cassel playing quite well, however he doesn't have many options available on his offense to give continuity to his plays, so overall they aren't able to score too much points in their games. On the defense, Kansas City has also improved, if on their first games they look like the Ozone Hole, now they are playing much better but they still have a lot of problems to stop the opposition's rushing game and the same applies to their secondary and that translates in a lot of troubles to stop the opponent's passing game.

This is a must-win game for the Chargers and there is no doubt that they have the quality to do it, and it is now the time of the season when this San Diego team starts to find itself and playing their best football and I don't expect the Chargers to win this game by less than a touchdown.


Pick: San Diego Chargers -4.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) have become one of the best teams of the NFL when they hired QB Brett Favre, giving them more offensive power to their offense. Favre has been terrific this seaon, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very interceptions which is odd, because we all know that despite his quality, he also throws a lot of interceptions, but on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is pratically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses. The Purps defense is also a good and agressive unit as well, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, however they have shown lately a lof of troubles on their Safety positions and that is their weak spot, causing this Minnesota team to suffer a lot of points thanks to these liabilities.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) are slowly entering in the expected rithym, they have a quite strong quarterback and that handles sacks without much troubles. This Steelers O has became curiously very predictable, using mostly their passing game, an option I quite understand since is there that the best offensive weapons can do the most damage. The stronger unit of this Pitts team is still their defense, very solid and strong, excellent against the passing game and even better stopping the rushing game, being one of the best on the NFL on this subject.

It is funny that both teams are showing a lot of problems in the fourth quarter, but I believe that the Steelers with the advantage of playing in their home field will not lose this game, we know how strong they are when playing at home with that loud crowd support and I think that Big Ben will exploit the safety position issues of this Minnesota defense, so take the Steelers and lay the points, i expect them to win with at least 1 touchdown of difference.


Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Indianapolis Colts @ Saint Louis Rams

Indianapolis Colts (5-0) have been completely onfire this season and they arrive to the Edward Jones Dome from a bye week, meaning, lock and load to get more wins this season and I don't see them losing this game. The Colts O is very powerful A equipa tem uma offense bastante poderosa, they have QB Peyton Manning has one of the best QB of the league, and he has always at least 4 Receivers to whom he can pass the ball, which makes this offense quite difficult to stop, and they also have a good rushing game. The team has defended very well, both against the rushing game and the passing game as well and they have been very solid and secure.

Saint Louis Rams (0-6) have a lot of problems on their offense, their QB is weak, their offense is weak, if we don't take in account their rushing game, where they have one and only one good player, their main rusher RB Steven Jackson, because the rest of the unit is simple feeble. The Rams D is also very fragile, showing a very bad defensive organization against the passing game and the rushing game as well.

Indianapolis Colts has everything to win this game, at least they should score more than 30 points and I'm not seeing the Rams scoring more than 10 points on this match, so take the Colts and lay the points.


Pick: Indianapolis Colts -13.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Chicago Bears (3-2) has a nice offense, but their QB Jay Cutler when reaches the Red Zone is unable to transform those opportunities in touchdowns and they have to settle with a Field Goal instead, losing precious points in the process that farther in the game are more than needed... This is a thing that has happened so many times that I've lost count... Despite that, they have a great Rushing Game with RB Matt Forte but so far they were unable to use him as expected on the red zone to score those precious touchdowns. Chicago strong point is their strong Defense, very agressive, and they are doing well against the opponent's rushing game. However, the same cannot be said against the passing game and today they will face a very dangerous team on that matter.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) can play very well or not play at all, this season they played very well against tough opponents, but against lower caliber teams, they simple appear to be a "no show" team... Cincy D has been very well so far, if we forget last week display, we can expect the Bengals giving everything on this game, because they will have a bye week and they are going to play in front of their supporters and since they want to go to the Playoffs, they cannot afford to lose this home games. The Bengals have a good QB, excellent options available on the passing game with good Wide Receivers, and a nice rushing with RB Cedric Benson, this player has been very well lately, but knowing how good the Bears play against the ground offense, the Bengals will have to resort more to the passing game, because like I said, the Bears are having troubles on air offense and the Bengals should exploit on this game this option more often.

I expect Cincy to play with enough motivation to win this game straight up.


Pick: Cincinnati Bengals PK -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Buffalo Bills (2-4) will not start QB Trent Edwards and I don't believe in this team. I acknowledge that they have done good games against their division rivals, but on their last game they benefited from 5 interceptions and only won in OT Field Goal, which illustrates quite well their lack of offensive power. On the defensive end, the team has been decent, sometimes they pressure the opponent's quarterback which leads to some mistakes on their opposition's OL, but on the other hand, they show some debilities against the rushing game. Overall, they should have scored more points against the Jets on the last game and that shows their offensive limitations.

Carolina Panthers (2-3) finally understood that their strong spot is their rushing game and they should exploit it, they have a quite powerful OL and that creates nice opportunities to their two rushers to go down the field and for this game I expect them to have at least 200 rushings yards combined. Their defense has not been that bad this season, they are improving on their secondary thanks to recent return of their quality safety, and I don't expect them to have much troubles against the Bills soft offense.

I hope to see the Carolina playing as Running Football team, it is against the ground offense that the Bills D has more difficulties and if the team keeps pressing that key on this game, they have everything they need to win this game by 1 or more touchdowns, because we should not expect much from the soft Bills O.


Pick: Carolina Panthers -7 +100 (2.00) The Greek

[TommyGold]

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

New York Jets (3-3) will try to avoid on the road their fourth straight defeat and they will not have an easy life on this game, because they will play on a field where they usually show a lot of troubles. The rookie QB Mark Sanchez after doing one of the best starts of a rookie quarterback in the NFL, has suffered how hard it is to be in a rookie's quarterback shoes, being the main target of several Blitzes, followed with more Blitzes, which doesn't give him much time to think, His OL has been unable to stop those blitzes so far and now Sanchez doesn't have all that time he had in the early season to make his calls and we can see that on his stats too. The Jets D continues to be very good, both against the running game and the passing game as well, but right now, the biggest problem the Jets are facing is really their lack of ability to score points in the offense.

Oakland Raiders (2-4) has a quarterback that is nothing special, but he is improving game after game, mainly in his passes completion % and avoiding the oppositions' sacks. The Raiders D when motivated is not a bad defense after all, Richard Seymour already warned that they will not play again with that lack of motivation they showed in other games, and that their gameplan has a lot of pressure against QB Mark Sanchez. Richard Seymour also said that the Raiders want to go to the Playoffs too, but on that matter, I believe that this ambition is more to drive the team down the field to have some objective to fight for.

This is a tough game for the Jets and how things are going on, I wouldn't be too much surprised if the Raiders win this one straight up, I foresee a very close game.


Pick: Oakland Raiders +6 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) are doing a nice season, their good QB despite his youth is showing much quality by making the right calls and with great displays and the best sector of this Falcons team is undoubtedly their offense,with 2 great Wide Receivers and one of the best TE on the league, with makes this offense quite powerful and difficult to stop. Yet, on the rushing game, despite having a good rusher, they were unable so far to have good results on the field when carrying the ball, however their passing game has been enough to compensate their lack of power on the ground offense. The Falcons D has been very good on the passing game and they had some big problems against the rushing game in the past, but on the last games they showed great improvements, still they aren't a great defense on that matter, but there are on the league teams that defend worse than the Falcons against the ground offense

Dallas Cowboys (3-2) doesn't have a bad offense, but is not that powerful offense of the previous seasons. QB Tony Romo loses his head a lot of times and throws the ball at random, which makes one believe that they should rely more often on their rushing game, but the biggest issued with this team is really on their defense, with their secondary and mainly their safeties playing very badly, and that is having a serious impact on the Dallas D performance, they had suffered a lot of points and if they don't improve soon, starting today, they will have big troubles against the Falcons offense.

The best strategy for the Falcons is to start the game early in the lead to force QB Tony Romo to commit the same usual mistake, which is, instead of rushing the ball, is to throw the ball and that is a great advantage for the Falcons, which at this time have the best team and are quite capable of winning this match straight up.


Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4 -105 (1.95) The Greek

[TommyGold]

New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints (5-0), have been terrific on the offense ataque, QB Drew Brees is showing to be one of the best on the the league and he shows great skill in throwing the ball very deep in the field, destrying the oppositions' defenses completely. The Saints also have outstanding Wide Receivers and a good rushing game, which is not used very often. But the success of this team is due to their defense, which has improved from the last season, playing quite well against both the rushing game and the passing game as well.

Miami Dolphins (2-3) are a good team on the running game, with several options on that ground offense, they use the Wildcat formation very well and that makes life very hard to the opponents' defenses. For me, that won't work against the Saints, if the Fins play like that, they will lose by a 3 Touchdowns margin at least, if they want to win this game, they have to play it relying more on the passing game, playing like the Saints do, and they have a good quarterback capable of throwing deep balls. The great problem on the Dolphins D is on his safeties and that is a plus for me, because I expect the Saints to crush this defense.

The only explanation for seeing a Saints -6 spread is that the Dolphins had a bye week, but that won't stop the powerful Saints O, this is a game that can have a lot of points and I expect New Orleans to win this match by 37-20.


Picks: New Orleans Saints -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & Over 47 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica