2023-24 NFL System Picks: FOR TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY

[Aunty808]

FOR TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY
I will be tracking my picks here instead of in the NFL Betting forum. (I don't bet money on these games, I just use them for my contest.)
NFL System
I am looking to use only the QBR ranking and an OFFENSIVE stat.
I also take into consideration the DOG consensus in my contest (4K+ players) to get a feel of where the "public" is "betting", using the line at the time I enter the contest. The line changes during the week so I will grade the W/L record using the line when I entered.


Another factor I consider is my other contest pick percentages (40K+members). Pick percentages are *SU picks. I use the pick percentages to find my RED FLAG games because that's where most of the upsets occur.


*SU Picks Note
There's been alot of discussion on several boards I frequent on the subject of the "points don't matter" in the NFL.
It's always been MY opinion that if you can pick the SU winner in the game, the points won't matter, with two exceptions.
One is the DOUBLE DIGIT line. Most times, the favorite will win SU, but not cover the DD line.
Two is line movement.
Bottom line is, get the best line you can find. That half point can change a win to a loss, vice versa.

Using last week's games as an example,
Using closing lines in my contest, the only teams that won SU, but lost ATS were Phil-8' vs Wash and KC-10 vs NYJ.
Denver won SU, but PUSHED ATS. With the rest of the games, the winner won both SU and ATS.





Getting back to the System.....
If a Road Fav has a pick percentage of 90% or higher, they usually, but not always, either LOSE the game outright or FAIL TO COVER the spread. PLAY AGAINST



Example of this from this past week is the Road Fav KC-8', with a pick percentage of 98%. NYJ almost pulled the upset, but came up short. Final score 23-20.

If a Road Dog has a pick percentage of 10% or less, they are the teams that usually, but not always, WIN the games outright or COVER the spread. **PLAY ON
(**BUT, if the consensus (from the other contest) is picking the Road Dog, it's a PLAY AGAINST, take the Home Fav.)

Example from last week is Road Dog Ariz+14 with a 2% pick percentage. My other contest had the consensus (51%) on Ariz, making Ariz a play against, play on SF.
Final score SF 35-16.



And last night, Chicago had a 4% pick percentage vs Wash, and was also the higher rankedteam in the Offensive stat that I use in the System. That made Chicago the System pick.
Final: Chicago 40-20

See next post for Week 5 Picks. Said file was too big for one post.

[Aunty808]

Week 5

SYSTEM PICKS(Will edit to add lines at the time I enter the contest)
(Pick %) Team


**(4%)Chic +6 @ Wash
Pick: Chicago
I used Chic+6 in the Survivor Contest @Covers last night.


**(4%) JAX @ Buff (London)
Pick: Buffalo


Hou @ ATL
PicK: Houston
Houston is a DOG consensus (56%/65%) Play Against.


**(2%) Car @ Det
Pick: Detroit


Tenn @ Ind
Pick: Indy
Tricky matchup.
Indy's opening line was -1. Looking at the contest today, line moved to Tenn-2'.
When I looked at the early week consensus, Tenn was the one point DOG. The consensus then was on Tenn(56%/80%). Today the consensus is still on Tenn (56%/61%), but Tenn is now a FAV, not DOG. I was trying to educate myself with line movements and I remember reading an article about this situation and it said in part


".....football underdogs that become betting favorites often lose. So how do you know when to follow the crowd?
This is why knowledge and research matter. If a betting line has moved significantly and you can't identify (or disagree with) reasons why, that's a market mover to avoid or consider taking the other side. If the reasons for the line movement are valid, then following the sharps may make more sense. You might have missed that early line movement, but a winner is still a winner and any profit is better than a loss".

Reason for movement using the contest consensus is valid. Everyone is taking Tenn so make them the favorite.
So maybe I should play against the system pick and take Tenn? I dunno.

**(1%) NYG @ Mia
Pick: Mia


NO @ NE
PicK NE


**(90%) Balt @ Pitt
Pick: QB for Pitt is ? System is based on QBR.Update when QB for Pitt is confirmed.


Cinn @ Ariz
Pick: Ariz
Ariz is a DOG consensus(56%/71%) Play Against


Phil @ LAR
Pick: **LAR
**If Stafford plays, he's listed on the injury list (hip), but had full practice on Wed.


*NYJ @ Den
Pick: Denver
(*In contest NYJ is DOG consensus (55%/59%)


**(91%) KC @ Minn
Pick: Minn


Dal @ SF
Pick: SF


GB @LV
Pick: LV starting QB ? No Play until QB confirmed.


**RED FLAG GAMES
Road Dog (Under 10% Pick %)
4% Chicago
4% JAX
2% Carolina
1% NYG


Road Fav ( 90%+ Pick %)
90% Balt
91% KC


I follow certain cappers on different boards, so if I read something interesting I might fade my System's Pick.
System picks will not be affected. Only way System picks will change is if consensus moves the other way.

[Aunty808]

Updating with Contest lines - Early Games

I am entering the "RAW" System picks without the noise.

Jax +5'
This is an exception. Raw pick was Buffalo.

Hou +2'
Houston was a play against, DOG consensus take the Fav.

Det -10
A Red Flag game, possible loser.

NE-1'
This game is a tricky pick. When I entered my other pick 5 contest, the line was NE+1. Today when I entered the main contest, NE is now the favorite. This game fall in the ".football underdogs that become betting favorites often lose" catagory. See note above in original post.

Ind +2'
Same as the NO/NE game, but applies to Tenn. Tenn was one point dog when I first checked the contest lines on Tuesday. They flipped and now is a two point favorite.



Balt -4'
Early week pick % was at 90%, making this a Red Flag game. When I entered the contest today, consensus dropped to 86%, no longer a Red Flag game.

Want to see how these turn out, then will add the other games .
good luck to all

Edit: I forgot Mia
Mia-13
A Red Flag game, possible loser.

[Aunty808]

Late Games/MNF updated with contest lines

Late GamesMNF
Same as the morning games
RAW picks without the *noise


Ariz +3
*Ariz is a DOG consensus/Play Fav


LAR+4


Den -2'
*NYJ is a DOG consensus/Play Fav


Minn +3'
*KC is a 90% Road Fav/ Play Against




SF -3'


LV-1
* Not sure of QB yet, but put the pick in anyways. Pick based on O'Connell at QB.

[Aunty808]

Just got home from work and after looking over the scores, today was a bad hair day for the System. I'll do the final updating with W/L and scores later.

Just wanted to say what I've learned today.
First off, this System is based on the idea of "If you don't have a QB, you don't have any offense".

Today I learned NE's Mac Jones IS NOT a QB. Led the team to 0 points and got benched.
On the other hand Jared Goff IS. Looks like Detroit is for real.

I also learned that watching the games and listening to the pregame show for stats and trends can help me apply the info to the picks, making better choices, either fading or playing it.

An example from today's games:

In hindsight should have taken the NYJ. Heard earlier in the week about the bulletin board material about something Sean Payton said. Jets used that for motivation and beat Payton's Broncos.

And using trends that I read on the net like (C/P trends from another board)
Play on NFL Double Digit Favorites (MIA) that gave up 35 or more points the week before.
or
Steelers are 6-4 SU and Ats last 10 meetings. The underdog is 10-0 Ats last 10 meetings.

There's so much info out there.....just got to learn how to apply that info to the System's picks.

Anyway, I'll do the System another week and see how it goes. If it's really bad, I can always just fade the picks in my contest. On the other hand, the NCAAF System is getting really good results, can't wait to do the game this week. Stats get updated on Monday, so can't start till then.



And FWIW- If you picked the winner in today's games, the points didn't matter....even the double-digit points! Atlanta was the only team to win SU but lost ATS to Houston.

Be back later with final (bad)results.

[Aunty808]

Final Results

PICK/ SCORE/ RESULTS W/L-SU/ATS

Chic+6 40-20 WW
Jax+5' 25-20 WW
Hou +2' 19-21 LW
Det-10 42-24 WW
Indy+2' 23-16 WW
Mia-13 31-16 WW
NE-1'' 0-34 LL
Balt-4' 17-10 LL
Ariz+3 20-34 LL
LAR+4 14-23 LL
Den-2' 21-31 LL
Minn+3' 20-27 LL
SF-3' 42-10 WW


EDIT:MNF
LV-1 17-13 WW


*Note: In the past when I did any system/method in the NFL, they all had the same W/L pattern.
System won the first four weeks, and like clockwork, regressed to the mean in week 5. Rinse and repeat throughout the season.
I only started tracking from week 4 because I was still doing baseball so I don't know what the first three week results are.
If it's like the past years, next week picks should bounce back.....we'll see.

** I don't bet real money on any of my picks, but if I did bet the NFL, I would just try to figure out who the SU winner of the game would be AND THEN try to find the best line I could find. I'll say it again, it's been MY opinion that if you find the SU winner, the points won't matter in the majority of the games. The double-digit favorites usually win but don't cover, and the other factor that comes into play most times is the half point, making a push a win or loss, depending what side you're on. See results above.

[Aunty808]

Week 6 System Picks

One notable trend this week is, no one (consensus) is picking the DOGS . Looks like the Doggies will be barking this week.

This week's System Picks are

Den @ KC
Pick: KC
This is a Red Flag game. RD Denver's pick % is 3%.


Car @ Mia
Pic: Mia
This is a Red Flag game. RD Carolina's pick % is 1%.


Ariz @ LAR
Pick: LAR
This is a Red Flag game. RD Arizona's pick % is 5%


NYG @ Buff
Pick: Buff
This is a Red Flag game. RD NYG's pick % is 2%.


SF @ Clev
Pick: SF
This is a Red Flag game. RF SF pick % is 96%.


Phil@ NYJ
Pick: Phil
This is a Red Flag game. RF Phil pick % is 95%.


Minn @ Chic
Pick: Minn

Sea @ Cinn
Pick: Sea


NO @ Hou
Pick: Hou


Indy @ Jax
Pick: Indy


NE @ LV
Pick: LV


Det @ TB
Pick: Det


Dal @ LAC
Pick: LAC


Balt @ Tenn
Pick: Balt


Wash @ Atl
Pick: Atl

Will update results using the closing line when I enter the contest.
BOL

Edit: Changed INDY/JAX pick. QB for INDY out. Minshew in. System Picks based on Starting QB.

[Aunty808]

RE: INDY/JAX Game

Note to self...

.....reading another board and poster mentioned

".... but Indy can’t play in jville for whatever reason. Even when they were good and j vile was going 1-15 every year they’d take care of Indy at home. "

I remember writing on a 3X5 card something about the AFC South

Jax owns Indy
Indy owns Hou
Hou owns Jax
Tenn splits with all- 1st is a loss, 2nd is a win.

I should have just left the Jax pick.........