GOT this in other forum but wow
If we've learned anything from this wild, record-setting postseason, it's something that's felt like an unavoidable truth for years now: the NFL is a quarterback's league, and it's harder than ever to win without a top-flight passer.
Three of the four starting quarterbacks left in this year's playoff field - Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow - ranked in the top six in passing yards and top eight in passing touchdowns this season. All three flirted with MVP consideration at points during the year, and all three threw for at least 345 yards in the divisional round to carry their teams to the conference championship game.
The lone outlier is Jimmy Garoppolo, who ranked outside of the top 10 in both areas in the regular season and has long been viewed as a liability for an otherwise title-worthy 49ers roster. That's the narrative once again ahead of this weekend's matchup with the Rams (-3.5), even as San Francisco keeps winning in unprecedented fashion.
With last week's 13-10 win over the Packers, the 49ers became the first team in at least 20 years to win consecutive playoff games without a passing touchdown, per Sports Database. They also became just the sixth club in that stretch to win back-to-back playoff contests with fewer than 175 passing yards.
All five of those previous teams lost their following game by at least seven points - including the 2019 49ers, who followed a similar script to this squad but were foiled by Garoppolo's late collapse in the Super Bowl. Can San Fran finish the job this postseason, or will the team's limitations through the air prove to be its undoing?
In case you haven't noticed, what the 49ers are doing this postseason is historic, especially in the midst of the NFL's passing boom.
On Saturday, San Francisco became just the fourth team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game without an offensive touchdown. The Niners threw for just 106 yards in that contest, the fewest by any team in a playoff win since ... the 49ers, who leaned on their elite pass rush and relentless run game to beat the Packers in the 2020 NFC championship.
The parallels to this year's team are tantalizing, but they also hint at an untimely end. Both San Francisco clubs are among 13 teams in the last 20 years to win consecutive playoff games with fewer than 200 passing yards in each. The results in the following contest haven't been pretty:
Those previous 12 teams went 3-9 against the spread and 4-8 straight up in their next game, including 2-6 ATS/SU in the conference championship round. The last two teams in this spot were downed by double digits, and seven of those dozen teams lost by six or more points.
The biggest issue, unsurprisingly, came on offense. Five of those 12 teams scored 17 or fewer points - all five lost - and only two scored more than 25 points. Even that's a little misleading: the '01 Eagles had more field goals (4) than touchdowns (3), while the '13 Seahawks enjoyed two touchdowns and a safety courtesy of their defense and special teams.
And what about the passing game? Again, little surprise there. Here's a list of those 12 teams' starting quarterbacks and their stat lines following those two previous low-yardage efforts:
Nearly all of them were asked to do more in this spot than they were in their previous two playoff wins, but few rose to the occasion. Those 12 passers averaged a combined 223.8 yards per game with a 59.7% completion percentage and 76.0 passer rating, all worse than the collective league average over the past two decades.
None of them threw for more than 265 yards or two touchdowns, and five threw multiple interceptions - including Garoppolo's two-pick showing in the Super Bowl. He's one of six quarterbacks in this spot with a passer rating well below league average for that respective season.
His performance a week ago is especially concerning ahead of Sunday. Since 2001, only 13 teams have won a playoff game with fewer than 110 passing yards. Those previous 12 teams went 5-7 ATS/3-9 SU in their next game, averaging a mere 19.3 points and recording a collective eight losses by double digits.
If we've learned anything from this wild, record-setting postseason, it's something that's felt like an unavoidable truth for years now: the NFL is a quarterback's league, and it's harder than ever to win without a top-flight passer.
Three of the four starting quarterbacks left in this year's playoff field - Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Joe Burrow - ranked in the top six in passing yards and top eight in passing touchdowns this season. All three flirted with MVP consideration at points during the year, and all three threw for at least 345 yards in the divisional round to carry their teams to the conference championship game.
The lone outlier is Jimmy Garoppolo, who ranked outside of the top 10 in both areas in the regular season and has long been viewed as a liability for an otherwise title-worthy 49ers roster. That's the narrative once again ahead of this weekend's matchup with the Rams (-3.5), even as San Francisco keeps winning in unprecedented fashion.
With last week's 13-10 win over the Packers, the 49ers became the first team in at least 20 years to win consecutive playoff games without a passing touchdown, per Sports Database. They also became just the sixth club in that stretch to win back-to-back playoff contests with fewer than 175 passing yards.
All five of those previous teams lost their following game by at least seven points - including the 2019 49ers, who followed a similar script to this squad but were foiled by Garoppolo's late collapse in the Super Bowl. Can San Fran finish the job this postseason, or will the team's limitations through the air prove to be its undoing?
In case you haven't noticed, what the 49ers are doing this postseason is historic, especially in the midst of the NFL's passing boom.
On Saturday, San Francisco became just the fourth team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game without an offensive touchdown. The Niners threw for just 106 yards in that contest, the fewest by any team in a playoff win since ... the 49ers, who leaned on their elite pass rush and relentless run game to beat the Packers in the 2020 NFC championship.
The parallels to this year's team are tantalizing, but they also hint at an untimely end. Both San Francisco clubs are among 13 teams in the last 20 years to win consecutive playoff games with fewer than 200 passing yards in each. The results in the following contest haven't been pretty:
| 2019 | 49ers (+1.5) vs. Chiefs | 20-31 | L | L |
| 2019 | Titans (+7.5) @ Chiefs | 24-35 | L | L |
| 2013 | Seahawks (+2) vs. Broncos | 43-8 | W | W |
| 2010 | Steelers (+2.5) vs. Packers | 25-31 | L | L |
| 2010 | Jets (+4) @ Steelers | 19-24 | L | L |
| 2009 | Jets (+8.5) @ Colts | 17-30 | L | L |
| 2008 | Ravens (+6) @ Steelers | 14-23 | L | L |
| 2007 | Giants (+7) @ Packers | 23-20 | W | W |
| 2004 | Patriots (-7) vs. Eagles | 24-21 | L | W |
| 2001 | Steelers (-9) vs. Patriots | 17-24 | L | L |
| 2001 | Ravens (+6.5) @ Steelers | 10-27 | L | L |
| 2001 | Eagles (+2.5) @ Bears | 33-19 | W | W |
The biggest issue, unsurprisingly, came on offense. Five of those 12 teams scored 17 or fewer points - all five lost - and only two scored more than 25 points. Even that's a little misleading: the '01 Eagles had more field goals (4) than touchdowns (3), while the '13 Seahawks enjoyed two touchdowns and a safety courtesy of their defense and special teams.
And what about the passing game? Again, little surprise there. Here's a list of those 12 teams' starting quarterbacks and their stat lines following those two previous low-yardage efforts:
| 2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 219 | 1 | 2 | 69.2 |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | 209 | 2 | 0 | 108.1 |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson | 206 | 2 | 0 | 123.1 |
| 2010 | Ben Roethlisberger | 263 | 2 | 2 | 77.4 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez | 233 | 2 | 0 | 102.2 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | 257 | 2 | 1 | 93.3 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 141 | 0 | 3 | 18.2 |
| 2007 | Eli Manning | 251 | 0 | 0 | 72 |
| 2004 | Tom Brady | 236 | 2 | 0 | 110.2 |
| 2001 | Kordell Stewart | 255 | 0 | 3 | 45.2 |
| 2001 | Elvis Grbac | 153 | 0 | 3 | 26.1 |
| 2001 | Donovan McNabb | 262 | 2 | 1 | 89.8 |
None of them threw for more than 265 yards or two touchdowns, and five threw multiple interceptions - including Garoppolo's two-pick showing in the Super Bowl. He's one of six quarterbacks in this spot with a passer rating well below league average for that respective season.
His performance a week ago is especially concerning ahead of Sunday. Since 2001, only 13 teams have won a playoff game with fewer than 110 passing yards. Those previous 12 teams went 5-7 ATS/3-9 SU in their next game, averaging a mere 19.3 points and recording a collective eight losses by double digits.
