Football Season Plays, NFL 2016-17

[Jeff_Black]

IND +7.5, 1.877 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Taking a TD line with Andrew Luck up against a depleted defense, don't mind the spot with the Colts coming off a rough loss against the Chiefs and GB coming off a tough loss against Atlanta too. Both teams will be pretty keen to get a win today and I feel the Colts can contribute to the potential shoot out. With GB heavily favoured for the spread bets I gotta go the other way here.

SD -3.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
The Chargers came up short against the best defense in the NFL, and against an inferior defense I feel like it's a good spot to take them to bounce back against a Titans team who are also not far off the AFC South lead but who I feel will come up short after their win last week. With big competition in the AFC West the Chargers will want to get another win here in a doable spot behind Phillip Rivers.

SF +5, 2.00 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
With money continually sliding towards the Saints after their good win against the Seahawks i'll take the other side of this lopsided matchup. The 49ers have lost six in a row since spoiling the opener of the Rams and with the Saints defense I feel they can keep up with them.

[Jeff_Black]

DEN ML, 2.02 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
DEN +1, 1.961 on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play

Big AFC West match up with both teams being 6-2 and going for that top spot. The Broncos secondary is still crazy deep even without Talib and Roby did an exceptional job replacing him. I'm not sold on the Raiders Offensive Line coming up against this Broncos front line either considering how many penalties they gave away against Tampa Bay who have been less then spectacular on the defensive end. Love guys like Cooper and Crabtree but I think this Broncos defense will be a huge test for the Raiders and with some concerns on their defense Im expecting a close match with the edge to the Broncos.

[Jeff_Black]

YTD: 59-46-4 (+10.144u)

[Jeff_Black]

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks
Handicap: Buffalo Bills +6, 1.884
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Handicap: Cleveland Browns +7.5, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Under 44, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u each

[Jeff_Black]

DEN +3, 1.854 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Were average and couldn't get it going against Oakland at all but the Saints have a more inferior defense then Oakland, and I think they can get the offense going against against these Saints. Any time in general the Broncos have been underdogs it seems they have relished the challenge and despite playing against Brees and the Saints who have some life in them I think they can bounce back in this spot.

[Jeff_Black]

KC +3, 1.98 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Rough weird line, against i'll take a team that can match the Panthers who I didn't think look good against the Rams. Must be the home field advantage.

[Jeff_Black]

GB ML, 1.68 on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play
GB -3, 2.04 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play

Taking this before it potentially becomes a hook play. Rodgers looked all sorts of awful against the Colts but a Titans team that has improved its offense but still gives up dumb turnovers and flags Ive got to take the Packers to bounce back in this spot.

[Jeff_Black]

GB/TEN over 49.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
To the above with a Rodgers who should be able to score against this Titans defense and with this Titans offense improving over the past 5 weeks and with both teams being able to turn the ball over (esp) Tennessee I am expecting points in this matchup.

[Jeff_Black]

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Player Props: Travis Kelce over 57.5 Receiving yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Player Props: Kelvin Benjamin under 69.5 Receiving yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u each

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
Handicap: Minnesota Vikings +2, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings @ 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u and 0.5u

[Jeff_Black]

Miami Dolpins @ San Diego Chargers
Handicap: Miami Dolphins +4.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Miami Dolphins @ 2.86 on Pinnacle
Team Total Points: Miami Dolphins over 21.5 pts, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u, 1u and 0.5u

The Dolphins come off the bye refreshed and at the right time, ready for a potential wildcard tilt. The offensive line has improved and at 4-4 they'll want to make these matches count. The Chargers have come off a win against the Titans but the defense was an incredible let down in the later stages. Looking at the Dolphins to come out with the win here.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Handicap: San Francisco 49ers +14, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Handicap: Dallas Cowboys +3, 1.884 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys @ 2.36 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot over 87.5 rushing yds, 1.60 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u and 0.5u and 2u

A lot of love for Pittsburgh, and when they're on, they're on. Problem is their defense can leak points and this Dallas Cowboys offense isn't one to be taken lightly. They are still struggling against the run and providing pass rush. I don't see Dallas frustrating Roethlisberger the way Philadelphia win but that small line at home where Ben doesn't lose often makes me think Dallas have a chance. Take Dak Prescott continue to prove to Jerry that he deserves to keep the QB position and boy isn't he playing like he is.

[Jeff_Black]

Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Handicap: Seattle Seahawks +7.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks, 3.89 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u, 0.5u play

[Jeff_Black]

Improvement in the afternoon games

[Bedard]

Nice comeback after a slow start yesterday!

What do you have for MNF?

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, I am legitimately interested to know how many people hit the Seahawks ML, it seemed like many people overwhelmingly liked the Patriots and the Patriots in teasers too no doubt.
All in all an absolutely bizzare (in a good way) Sunday of football, I haven't seen one quite like it where so many games are decided in the last two minutes only for it to be stolen away AGAIN!
Life must shorten a few hours for some of us who wager these games haha

Haven't decided on tommorows game yet. Usually not as good with MNF, started well with it but have slowed down since. Will post a play pending money movement.

[Bedard]

The Dallas/Pittsburgh game was amazing!

[Jeff_Black]

The last time two plays covered for me at the end of the game was the Rodgers hail mary being on the obvious Packers/over. This was just as amazing if not better.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Handicap: Cincinnati Bengals -1, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Over 48, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u each

[Jeff_Black]

MIA -1, 1.934 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1.5u play
With the knowledge that Goff will play I have to side with the better QB in this close odds matchup. I don't think Goff will be ready and as I said last week the Dolphins off the bye have looked better and improved. The Rams will be the Rams, struggle to score points with their lack of offensive weapons.
Locking this early before the line continues to go the Dolphins way.

[Jeff_Black]

BUF +3, 2.04 on Pinnacle
BUF/CIN over 47 points, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u each

Buffalo are scoring well on the road and the Bengals are capable of points with the way these defenses have been going. Expecting that total to go up on game day.

[Jeff_Black]

PIT -7.5, 2.00 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1.5u play

After their disappointing loss to Dallas the Steelers will want to win to keep their playoffs hopes alive. Based of what I've seen of inferior offenses go against Cleveland this line is pretty small despite the Steelers very average defense and the loss of Cameron Heyward. With the spread bets heavily likening towards the Steelers ill take this early.
Expecting a double digit win by the Steelers.

[Jeff_Black]

NE -13, 2.02 on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play
Potentially square wager here but even without the Gronk, Tom Brady has too many weapons for this 49ers defense and offense for the 49ers to stop. They came up with a close game in Arizona which completed the divisional inverse theory where results ATS/O or U are reversed. So Im not looking too much into that. Even if they score a touchdown or two I think NEs offense will be too much. Taking the line before it hits the half a point or two TDs.

[jpot34]

NE -13, 2.02 on Pinnacle - Stake: 2u play
Potentially square wager here but even without the Gronk, Tom Brady has too many weapons for this 49ers defense and offense for the 49ers to stop. They came up with a close game in Arizona which completed the divisional inverse theory where results ATS/O or U are reversed. So Im not looking too much into that. Even if they score a touchdown or two I think NEs offense will be too much. Taking the line before it hits the half a point or two TDs.

Updated record?

[Jeff_Black]

Updated record?

74-53-5 (+19.765u) - 0.583%

[Jeff_Black]

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Total Score: Under 52.5, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Mark Ingram under 41.5 rushing yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u each

Normally the second game is hard to predict in divisional matches because people expect it to go the same way and especially if one team is considered 'bad' or the other team is considered 'good'. More often then not it/both whether who covers the spread or whether it goes over and under it will be the opposite.
Because the total went a really high 70+ points, Im expecting it to go the other way this time around. Carolina have played some good defenses in the past few weeks and have done a good job stopping the run so while both teams may get over 20 pts especially with the Saints defense, Im expecting it to not be as high as last time.

[jpot34]

74-53-5 (+19.765u) - 0.583%

Thank you!

[Jeff_Black]

CHI +7.5, 1.854 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
With the Bears being winless on the road and the Giants being solid at home this almost seems like a spot too good to be true to take the Giants. And with 70%+ of the spread wagers would suggest that too. So would some of the injuries for the Bears. But let's take a closerlook at things for a minute, Eli has been keeping opposition teams in it with his INTs and O Line allowed sacks. And despite the Bears bigloss I think they would ideally like to bounce back strongly here.

KC -7, 1.952 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Think this line is right but still favour the Chiefs. With the early money coming in for the Buccs and then going towards the Chiefs today I'll take the straight line. The Chiefs have been going about business quietly and I don't think the Buccs have the offense or defense to keep up with them.

ARI +2, 1.952 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Both teams have had their issues on offence, but Arizonas...to me anyway seem more fixable. With their struggles on offence they can still score points, but if they hold onto the ball with these two teams playing good defence I think they cover and possibly win outright.

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens
Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot over 83.5 Rushing Yds, 1.87 on Sportsbet
Player Props: Jason Witten under 45.5 Receiving Yds, 1.88 on Crownbet
Stake: 1.5u and 1u
Baltimore much like Green Bay an odd month ago also were considered a solid rushing defence but they have also played a lot of rubbish offences in that time including the Cleveland Browns twice and a struggling Giants run game. They haven't faced a Running back like Ezekiel Elliot. Witten is also more of just a fade on his biggest game to date, I think he will be mr reliable but he'll get no where near the yards he did against the Browns.

[Jeff_Black]

PHI +7, 1.862 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
The Eagles issues which cause them to lose games were turned around beating the much hyped Falcons with Matt Ryan and a defense keeping them level. With their front line against Seattle's offensive line I expect the Eagles to keep it close with Wentz gaining yards.

[Jeff_Black]

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
Handicap: Green Bay Packers +3, 1.854 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Green Bay Packers @ 2.29 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Over 48 pts, 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u, 0.5u and 1u plays

[Jeff_Black]

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders
Team Total: Houston Texans under 19.5 pts, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Player Props: Derek Carr over 250.5 passing yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Player Props: Amari Cooper over 65.5 Receiving yards, 1.88 on Crownbet
Player Props: Amari Cooper anytime TD scorer, 2.25 on Crownbet
Stake: 1u, 1u, 1u, 0.5u

[Jeff_Black]

Weekly Recap

Total Score: Under 52.5
Player Props: Mark Ingram under 41.5 rushing yards
Miami Dolphins -1
Buffalo Bills +3
Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals over 47 points
New England Patriots -13
Chicago Bears +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7
Arizona Cardinals +2
Ezekiel Elliot over 83.5 rushing yards
Jason Witten under 45.5 receiving yards
Philadelphia Eagles +7
Green Bay Packers +3
Green Bay Packers ML
Green Bay Packers/Washington Redskins over 48
Team Total: Houston Texans under 19.5 pts
Player Props: Derek Carr over 250.5 passing yards
Player Props: Amari Cooper over 65.5 Receiving yards
Player Props: Amari Cooper anytime TD scorer

YTD: 84-61-7 (+28.436u)

[Jeff_Black]

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Handicap: Baltimore Ravens -4, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play

I'll jump on this earlier with the news of the Bengals injury woes and the likelyness that the Ravens will keep fighting for a play-off spot with the Steelers. I felt they played pretty well against Dallas but got beaten by a better offense and against the Bengals who seem to be struggling on the offensive end i'll take that line now.

[Jeff_Black]

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Handicap: Minnesota Vikings +2.5, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Total Score: Over 43, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u each

[Jeff_Black]

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Handicap: New York Giants -6.5, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stske: 1.5u play

Struggled against the lowly Bears but I think they'll bounce back against the worst team in the NFL.

[Jeff_Black]

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccs
Handicap: Seattle Seahawks -5.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

A few years ago lines involving the number 5 were always a pain in the bum to bet on because the dog usually was the cover. This time around I think i'll ride with the hot hand of Seattle to continue their run against a Buccs team with a surprise win over the Chiefs.

[Jeff_Black]

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Team Total: Minnesota Vikings over 19.5 pts, 1.806 on Pinnacle - Stake: 1u play
Player Props: Kyle Rudolph over 45.5 receiving yds, 1.88 on Crownbet - Stake: 1u play
Player Props: Theo Riddick under 37.5 rushing yds, 1.88 on Crownbet - Stake: 1u play

In their first game the Lions came off as shock (not to me because I took the points) underdog winners against the Vikings who hadn't lost at home and still are good at home.

Division Games always throw up something different so this time around i'll take the Vikings to continue their bounce back against an inferior defence in the Lions and put on some points. It is (sometimes) a common trend for the roles of the winner and over/under to be reversed in the second matchup compared to the first. The Lions haven't been bad but they didn't look convincing against one of the (again) bottom feeder Jaguars.

The Riddick total is low but I believe Stafford likes to throw the ball in the air more in these games, no way the Vikings give up as many yards as they did to David Johnson against a rather ordinary Lions run game despite rushing for 70 yds. This time around the Vikings have Eric Kendricks to partner Anthony Barr this time around after missing their first game with a concussion.