Football Season Plays, NFL 2016-17

FlyinAir · 09-11-16, 08:53 AM

Best of luck

Jeff_Black · 09-11-16, 03:20 PM

Thanks, just wish I didn't buy into the Titans hype

DAL/NYG o48.0, 1.934Dallas have a lot of its defensive line suspended/missing and New York are weak at linebacker and secondary. Expecting both offenses to put up plenty of points

all 1u plays as well for the record unless specified otherwise

Jeff_Black · 09-11-16, 07:24 PM

Ne +9.5, 1.943

Jeff_Black · 09-12-16, 06:06 PM

PIT/ WAS o48.5, 1.925

Jeff_Black · 09-12-16, 09:03 PM

SF +2.5, 2.00

Way too much love for the Rams, will try the other side, big game and big audience, SF will aim up for this one

Jeff_Black · 09-15-16, 08:27 AM

Week 1: 7-2 (+4.538u)

Eric Decker OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards, 1.87 (TAB)
Most other places I've seen this have it in the 60s. Quite low even though this is expected to be a defensive game, there'll still be some yards in it. And not expecting him to have quiet back to back games.

Jeff_Black · 09-15-16, 09:33 AM

NYJ -1, 1.925
Only concern is the action on the Jets but I'm ok with the public liking them. Was concerned with Buffalo that their ranged passing plays weren't ready tested against a sound but not fantastic Ravens defense. They're going to have to put up points and I don't know if they have it in them. Against a better defense that's a bigger concern...
Jets defense conceded 23 against the Bengals with AJ being good and to me that wasn't too bad of an effort considering how hot the Bengals offense can be and how quickly that can start scoring points.
Bad h2h, lost a few in a row against them? These trends have gotta change some day, guess tonight isn't too bad of a time to start.

Jeff_Black · 09-15-16, 10:46 PM

YTD: 9-2 (+7.913)

Some big money movement for the Jets at around the time of posting, seems like they were on the money

Jeff_Black · 09-18-16, 08:03 AM

KC +1.0, 1.909
WithHouston receiving a large sum of the spread bets and some sharp moneyhitting Kansas it's not a bad spot to take the Chiefs knowing fullwell they'll have a better chance at the division and a Wildcard. Andrevenge for last years loss.

NO +4.0, 1.909
A5 point spread against the Giants is a bit generous considering howinconsistent they are. Saints defense showed concerns against theRaiders but Brees should get points and keep up either way even ifthey do lose. Considering he signed a contract extension with them Idon't think he intends to.

TEN/DET o48.0, 1.952
HighTotal with the concerns of Tenneesee's new offense but with Mariota'stalent and Detroit missing two of it's starting LBs they'll find away to get points. The Lions shouldn't have issues scoring pointseither. Especially against the Titans secondary

MIA +6.5, 1.909
Miamiplayed a tight grinding defensive game against the Seahawkssurprising many no doubt at how close they were to winning. ThePatriots are receiving the larger amount of spread bets by a marginand at the hands of a rookie QB that's good enough for me to go theother way. Especially considering how overreactionary the pointspread swing is towards the Patriots.

Jeff_Black · 09-18-16, 02:47 PM

TB +7.5, 1.833
One can only wonder if Arizona will be that flop team who made it deep last year with some ageing players. Tampa Bay as expected last week played an up tempo offense and Winston had a good game. Expecting them to keep it close here and with the spread bets favouring Arizona it's a good spot.

LAR +6.0, 1.99
The Rams got off to the worst possible start upon their return to LA but they'll be back at the Colliseum playing against division rivals the Seahawks. With the uncertainty of Russell Wilson's injuries and a banged up O Line it's a perfect overreaction spot on the Rams loss in Week 2 to back them here at home.

JAX +3.0, 1.961
The Chargers have Rivers but the Jags have the necessary defense and offensive weapons to keep up as well as cause havoc to their offensive line. Felt like Jacksonville put up a better showing last week disappointed they didn't get the win, no doubt wanting to turn that around today.

All 1u, all Pinnacle

Jeff_Black · 09-18-16, 07:19 PM

GB -1, 1.90
jordy Nelson o74.5 Receiving yds (Crownbet)
Stake: 1u each

Jeff_Black · 09-18-16, 11:00 PM

YTD: 12-8 (+4.922u)

Stinker week but hopefully in the black for week 2 after tommorow, if not there's another 15 weeks to make up for it

Jeff_Black · 09-19-16, 07:13 PM

Philadelphia Eagles ML, 2.44
Philadelphia Eagles +3.0, 2.02
1u and 2u

Jeff_Black · 09-19-16, 10:12 PM

YTD: 14-8 (+8.402u)

Jeff_Black · 09-20-16, 07:42 PM

NYJ +3, 1.925
Must be because they are a road team like against Buffalo. Expect the swing to go in their favour so i'll take this line now. They have a better defensive line then Houston so if Kansas O line struggles it'll be even tougher against the Jets who have a better secondary then the Texans. Also the offense is obviously better with their weapons.

MIN +7.5, 1.787
Not looking too much into the win against the 49ers but it was interesting to see how they put up points against this Carolina defense. From what I saw of Bradford on SNF I think the Vikings can put up points to compete and defend their own side as well. They've proven they can win games without AP and I think it may be an overreaction line without him.

Jeff_Black · 09-21-16, 10:26 PM

DEN +3, 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Strange line but i'll take it. People underestimating the Broncos but they keep finding ways to score points behind Siemien. Might not beat Cincy but I think they'll keep it close. Dalton only scoring 16 points against the offense heavy Steelers was a concern. I'll grab that +3 now thanks.

Jeff_Black · 09-22-16, 06:54 PM

HOU/NE over 39.5, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Will take the low line here, both teams play at a fast enough pace where the ball should be exchanged multiple times in each qtr even if they get a few fourth downs as well. They dont expect Brisset to score points behind this offense but Gronk his back and he has weapons to throw to.

Jeff_Black · 09-25-16, 06:46 AM

DEN +3.5, 1.98
I underestimated the Broncos a tad going in to this season but with IMO the best secondary in football led up front with their defensive linemen and an offense to go I think they can keep up with this Bengals team who were concerning against an offensive first Pittsburgh.

BUF +3.5, 1.98
Teams that receive in the 70%ers of spread bets have an incredibly poor success rate, and with that said this line seems like a trap for the square play on Arizona. Buffalo 0-2 with their backs to the wall? Ill take it.

JAX +1.0, 1.98
Normally I'm not a fan of backing teams going to London the week after. But 0-2 in the AFC South a win is a must if they want to get on a roll for competing in the division. They got lit up in San Diego but back at home in the Florida heat against Baltimore who were the winning victim of a tank job in Cleveland, Yes please.

DET +7.0, 1.813
Somereactions after Green Bay lost several key personnel most notablyline backer Clay Matthews but I've liked what Ive seen from Staffordso far and will count on the Lions to keep up with Rodgers even if hefinds his groove back on Sunday.

MIN/CAR u42.0, 1.909
Stake: 1u play

All on Pinnacle

Jeff_Black · 09-25-16, 02:53 PM

- lar +3.5, 1.917
- pit -4.0, 2.01
- ind -1.5, 1.934

Jeff_Black · 09-25-16, 06:53 PM

YTD: 21-12-1 (+10.832u)

Jeff_Black · 09-25-16, 07:12 PM

- Ezekiel Elliot over 65.5 rushing yds (TAB)
Stake: 1u

Jeff_Black · 09-25-16, 08:39 PM

That's about as easy as Itll get
YTD: 22-12-1 (+11.582u)

Jeff_Black · 09-26-16, 07:08 PM

ATL +3.0, 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Jeff_Black · 09-26-16, 10:30 PM

YTD: 23-12-1 (+12.474u)

Jeff_Black · 09-29-16, 06:50 PM

MIA +7.5, 1.97
So many lopsided wagerings at the moment. Public won't be right on all of them. Hopefully this is one.

Jeff_Black · 10-01-16, 07:47 PM

IND -2, 2.02
Not really a fan of the Colts tbh, but on neutral ground against a lacklustre Jags (who I thought may be a bit better) with a very open division, ill take it. Colts slow starts usually put them on the bad side with the public, but its happened the last few years so no surprise it's happening again. Colts love division wins more then any other team and they'll need them with the way they're going.

BUF +7, 1.909
Hard to fade New England again, but against a division rival at home, with well over 60% of the spread bets on them I feel Buffalo is the play.

CHI +3, 2.00
One of the most lopsided plays on the board that no doubt other people have picked up on. Wanted to wait until the line got to +3 rather then 2.5 or less so happy with that. Don't really trust Detroit as a favourite and against a division rival no less on the road.

HOU -4.5, 1.97
Came spinning back down to reality after that tough loss in New England but have the tools to win this game against unsurprisingly to many due to the Muarkley factor an unspectacular Titans offense. The only difference not having Watt around on the edge is that Mariota is less likely to end up in hospital.

NYJ +2, 1.934
Was deciding between this and the Falcons for my last play on the early games. Think the Jets with their front line and offense can keep this game close to a grind, even a FG shootout with the way these QBs have been going. Probably a step up from the teams Seattle have played as well so it'll be interesting to see how they handle it.

Jeff_Black · 10-01-16, 07:52 PM

TB +3, 1.99
Broncos underrated by the bookies so far but a bit tougher to back when the public prefers them. To set a line against a team who has one of the worst defenses in the NFL to 3 smells a bit funny. Tampa can score points as well and put up 32 against a good Rams defense. Interested to see how this one pans out.

DAL -1, 1.952
Line was set suspiciously short but I feel Dallas is still the better team on the board. The 49ers have done a good job scoring points against some good defenses but Dallas' offense should also be more then enough to keep the 49ers at bay. Will probably be caught in the trap of favouritism here but I just dont seem to rate the 49ers as much.

Jeff_Black · 10-02-16, 07:13 PM

YTD: 27-16-1 (+12.305u)

Im just going to leave TB as a loss for the time being, don't see a comeback at all with Winston's turnovers

PIT -3, 1.813

Jeff_Black · 10-02-16, 11:09 PM

YTD: 28-16-1 (+13.118u)

MIN -4.5, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Jeff_Black · 10-03-16, 10:50 PM

Never looked in doubt

YTD: 29-16-1 (+14.088u)

Jeff_Black · 10-06-16, 06:01 PM

ARI -3.5, 1.909 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u play

David Johnson OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards, 1.65 (TAB)
Stake: 2u play

Should be a fair bit of ground game against the worst rushing defense in the NFL, Hell if Carolina with a backup and Seattle can run through for +100 I dont see why David Johnson cant with more carries.

Jeff_Black · 10-06-16, 11:06 PM

YTD: 31-16-1 (+16.297u)

Jeff_Black · 10-08-16, 11:19 PM

All 1u plays off Pinnacle

NYJ +9, 1.909
The Jets are facing all sorts of issues with player personnel injuries and offensive struggles. Big line to give (that I acknowledge went up recently) to give off a Steelers team coming off a big win on Prime Time. Still dont trust the Steelers offense, nor defense to get it done against a Jets front 7 even potentially missing Decker and Revis.

DET +3.5, 1.952
Been waiting for the Lions to get up to the 3.5 hook after opening at 2.5 on some books. Think after the letdown loss to Chicago (which was their first win) they bounce back in front of the home crowd. Philadelphia receiving a large part of the favouritism and with Ertz back off the bye I think they are letdown here.

TEN/MIA u43, 1.952
Both offenses struggling hard in the opening month, especially the Titans who are amongst the last in most categories playing a QB in an outdated offense which does not suit him seems to have done more harm then good.

IND -4.5, 1.909
The Colts showed what they were capable of against the Jaguars in London but despite the travel I feel they can bounce back at home against the Bears who while beating the Lions did not show a great deal on the offensive front. Should be an ugly game but I expect the Colts to get points and cover the spread here.

WAS +4, 1.925
Baltimore lost their first game against Oakland last week going up against a Redskins team gaining slight confidence with back to back wins. Dont really think there will be a lot between these two teams even if its a field goal seperating them.

Matt Ryan UNDER 256 Passing yds, 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Coming off one of his best games as a QB in the air Matt Ryan will come across one of the better pass rush and secondary teams in the Broncos. Expecting him to rely on the ground a bit more if he doesn't get it done in the air with the Falcons not getting away with all the points they have been scoring against a better defensive team here.

Jeff_Black · 10-09-16, 03:22 PM

Buf -2.5, 1.952

dal +2.5, 1.98